Can the Twins Get to a .500 Record?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

For most teams, the trade deadline isn't decided by one game or even one series. It's determined by months of evidence. For the Twins, though, the next few weeks may come down to one simple question: can they finally get back to .500?

While there are always exceptions, finishing at or above .500 is essentially the minimum requirement for a legitimate postseason push. Minnesota reached the 86-game mark with a 41-45 record for the second consecutive season. The circumstances are remarkably similar. This year, the Twins sit only 2.0 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot, with roughly a 25% chance to reach the postseason. At the same point last season, they were 4.0 games back, with playoff odds hovering around 21%.

The opportunity remains there, but opportunities don't last forever. If Minnesota can't climb back to even, the front office may have little choice but to become sellers for the second straight summer.

Minnesota's Fast Start

Minnesota opened the season by going 11-7 (.611), and it felt like the organization had turned a corner—if only a gentle one. New manager Derek Shelton had the club playing fundamentally sound baseball, while Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley initially formed one of the more impressive one-two punches in the American League.

The Twins swept the Tigers in four games, an impressive statement against the preseason favorites in the AL Central. They also won series against Toronto and Boston, two clubs expected to be firmly in the playoff race. Even with some offensive inconsistencies, quality pitching and timely hitting gave Minnesota plenty of reasons for optimism.

The First Flop

Then, everything unraveled. Over their next 21 games, the Twins went just 5-16 (.238), immediately erasing the momentum they had built in April. The offense disappeared for long stretches, and a bullpen that looked like a strength suddenly had more leaks than the boat in those old Flex Tape commercials.

Minnesota suffered embarrassing losses to a Mets club trapped in a historic losing streak and were blown out in Toronto and Washington. By the end of the skid, the Twins had fallen to 17-23 and sat in fifth place in an AL Central that wasn't exactly running away from anyone.

Resurgence, Part I

Just when the season looked ready to spiral away, Shelton's squad answered. They ripped off an 11-5 (.688) stretch over their next 16 games. They completed their first sweep at Fenway Park since 1994, won a series in Cleveland—a place that has consistently haunted the franchise—and took a series from Houston.

Different players stepped into unexpected roles throughout the roster. The lineup found timely production, the rotation stabilized, and the bullpen rediscovered some reliability. For a couple of weeks, Minnesota looked more like the balanced team that had exceeded expectations in the season's first weeks.

Minnesota's Second Flop

Unfortunately, the consistency never arrived. The next 13 games produced another collapse as the Twins stumbled to a 3-10 (.231) record. They dropped three of four to the White Sox in Chicago before Shelton returned to Pittsburgh only to watch his former club complete a sweep. Kansas City followed by taking three of four games at Target Field.

The White Sox have proven themselves to be much better than expected this season, but the losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City were far more damaging. Good teams don't have to win every series against comparable opponents, but they usually avoid getting dominated by them.

That has been one of Minnesota's biggest problems all season. Every productive stretch seems to be followed by another prolonged collapse.

Resurgence, Part II

Once again, the Twins responded. Minnesota went 8-3 (.727) over its next 11 games, beginning with a home series victory over St. Louis. They followed by sweeping Texas on the road before taking two of three from Arizona to finish an impressive road trip.

For a brief moment, it looked like the club had finally discovered the consistency it had spent nearly three months searching for.

Now What?

Reality arrived quickly. Fresh off their successful road trip, Minnesota ran into the Dodgers, baseball's measuring stick. The Twins were swept in three games by the two-time defending champions before salvaging the homestand by taking two of three from Colorado. Even that series wasn't entirely convincing after the bullpen nearly turned the opener into a disaster.

Now comes another measuring-stick trip. The Twins head to Houston (where they took the first game Monday night), before traveling to New York to face two teams that have regularly been among the American League's best in recent seasons. The Astros entered the series only two games below .500 despite sitting third in the AL West, while the Yankees remain locked in a battle with Tampa Bay atop the AL East.

A 3-3 trip would be respectable, considering the competition. It also wouldn't accomplish much. Respectable baseball isn't enough anymore. The Twins don't simply need to survive difficult stretches; they need to erase the damage created by months of inconsistency. Every time they put together an impressive winning streak, they've answered it with a losing streak that lasts nearly as long. That's how a team with obvious talent finds itself five games below .500 halfway through the season.

The American League has left the door open. No Wild Card team has separated itself, and the AL Central hasn't produced multiple dominant clubs. Minnesota has been given opportunities to climb back into contention time and time again. The problem is that the Twins haven't shown they can sustain success long enough to take advantage.

That's why the next few weeks may determine the direction of the franchise. If Minnesota can finally reach .500 before the trade deadline, the front office has the justification to make a modest addition or two and see where the season goes. This roster doesn't need a blockbuster acquisition, but a high-leverage bullpen arm could be worthwhile if meaningful baseball remains realistic.

If they remain several games under .500, however, the calculus changes dramatically. For nearly three months, the Twins have answered every encouraging stretch with an equally frustrating collapse. At some point, those highs and lows stop canceling each other out and start defining who a team really is.

The standings suggest Minnesota still has time to change that narrative. Whether they actually can is the question that will define not only the rest of the season, but perhaps the organization's entire approach to the trade deadline.

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Can Minnesota get back to .500? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[jkcarew]

Being in any way happy or exited about a 500 record…or even thinking it’s meaningful…is exactly why this organization, under current direction, will perennially be meaningless.

[Patzky]

I will really miss Ryan Jeffers but I believe he will be sent packing either way; the performance of Caratini and Jackson makes me less concerned about the catching situation than I was earlier. Ryan this and that; we do still have control next season also, and a decision on him could be postponed with less loss than keeping Jeffers and seeing him walk. 

[BillyBallLives]

Are you suggesting we get a new motto for this team?

"Good enough to annoy you, but never good enough to matter."

[Permanent Twins Fan]

26 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Being in any way happy or exited about a 500 record…or even thinking it’s meaningful…is exactly why this organization, under current direction, will perennially be meaningless.

It is meaningful this year because the American League is so bad. If the Twins finished at .500, they would be tied for a wild card spot with the Mariners. In most years .500 won't cut it, but their is a good chance that .500 can get you into a playoff spot this season. 

[Saxophone Joe]

We believe! 

Look, it's been a very entertaining season so far - from games in the fog & snow (seems like forever ago) to some seriously dramatic wins & tough losses. Frustrating & demoralizing at times, yes, of course. They've gotten very little respect so far from podcasters, bloggers, beat writers, etc., but no one can say this year's Twins doesn't have heart. 

I'm with this team till the wheels off. And will stick around even after that 🤣 Like Aaron Boone said the other night, "You've got to love this stuff. You've got to eat this stuff up. It's a sickness. That's what the grind is."

[IndianaTwin]

I don't see the next few weeks as having a dramatic effect on the direction they go at the deadline. Or at least I hope it doesn't. 

Anything this year is bonus. But with a) a potentially outstanding rotation and b) an offense that is at the top of the AL in runs scored, potentially has reinforcements in-house and is losing very little, 2027 is very much in play. Whether they play 10-17 or 17-10 between now and the deadline, I'd like to see the response be the same -- tinker. Don't trade anything that is a part of 2027, trade minimal expiring assets (i.e., Bell, Rogers). If you can get something for the latter, great. But if not, ride the wave, etc.

I think "going all in" and trading future assets for this year or "going total selloff" would both be mistakes. 

[Saxophone Joe]

Pretty cool to see a quote from a vet like Josh Bell, who's obviously been around the league awhile, saying in the Athletic today that this team is the tightest one he's been on. I'll take him at his word.  

[IndianaTwin]

Someone is going to reference trading Jeffers. This isn't intended as a leading question, but what does 50 games of a good catcher on an expiring contract actually get a team? I don't recall many catchers of that ilk getting traded at recent deadlines. It seems like good teams usually have their catcher situation settled and contending teams don't tend to want to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at that point in the season. 

Can someone recall recent trades that have had a catcher as the centerpiece? 

[Riverbrian]

Yes they can!

They also may not. 

Will they stay above .500? Possibly but I feel that they will need serious bullpen improvements. 

They still got to play those games one at a time. Baseball is a rollercoaster. There will be hot streaks and there will be cold streaks. If they have a cold streak before a hot streak. The trade deadline will dictate what players are utilized in August and September. 

The month of July will have to be a good one for our Twins. 

[IndianaTwin]

19 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Pretty cool to see a quote from a vet like Josh Bell, who's obviously been around the league awhile, saying in the Athletic today that this team is the tightest one he's been on. I'll take him at his word.  

Here's the quote and following sentence from Dan Hayes' article...

“I got asked about this a month and a half ago, the vibes here,” said Bell, whose two-run homer opened up a 4-1 lead in the sixth inning. “I was like, ‘Let me feel it out. It’s still early.’ This team really vibes well with one another. It’s a lot of fun. I’ve been on a lot of different teams that have cliques, little falling-outs across the course of the season. This team is definitely the closest one I’ve been on. I feel like Buxton obviously has a lot to do with it, someone who’s been here and set a foundation for the guys. It’s been a lot of fun to play on this team for sure.”

Monday afternoon wasn’t particularly upbeat for the Twins. This is a close-knit team that banded together early after repeatedly hearing about being undermanned and facing low expectations...

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Hayes one of the most consistent voices calling the Twins undermanned? 

[Blyleven2011]

The twins have entertained us more this year than 2024-25 , I've been sucked in a few times already that we could be competitive and if we finish 500 at the end of the season i would be pleasantly surprised and alot of other fans would be too ...

Can the twins get to 500 is the question  ?

If Falvey and Rocco were still here i would say NO , but with Shelton as manager he seems to have the players playing alot better , still inconsistent at times but better ...

Forget about being contenders this year , even with the weak american league we are not contenders , I will not be sucked into believing that ...

I wasn't going to respond to this article BUT I GOT SUCKED IN  ...

[Saxophone Joe]

4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 Dan Hayes' article...

The bit about Banda's injury and how popular he's become in the clubhouse bummed me out. Seemed to me like to me he wasn't too thrilled to be here after being with the back to back champs (couldn't blame him!), but sure appears now that Banda's made the most of his time with the Twins. 

[jaimedude]

Get Louis Varland back to close games. Varland smash is missed badly at Target Field. I wouldn't give Rojas back but there must be pieces they would take including Roden. 

[mickster]

4 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Get Louis Varland back to close games. Varland smash is missed badly at Target Field. I wouldn't give Rojas back but there must be pieces they would take including Roden. 

Erod

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

It is meaningful this year because the American League is so bad. If the Twins finished at .500, they would be tied for a wild card spot with the Mariners. In most years .500 won't cut it, but their is a good chance that .500 can get you into a playoff spot this season. 

Guys, it sure looks like 85 wins gets you into the postseason this year. 83 wins might be good enough. 85 wins means going 45-32 starting Monday for the rest of the season. Right now we're 1-0 on that quest. So I'm saying there's a chance ... 

In all seriousness, there still is a chance IMO. I think Cody's right, the 25 games from yesterday through July 31 will tell us if we can seize that chance. If we go 15-10 to get to .500, we have a shot. If we can't even do that, it's over. Play the young guys around Buxton, Bell and Clemens, promote relievers until you find at least one who can actually throw strikes coming out of the pen, and see if there's a shot. If there is, trade for a reliever or 3. If not, shut it down and use Aug 1-3 to trade the short term spare parts like Bell and Rogers, trade Larnach if you can get value for him, and see if anybody will give you even a 40-45 rated AA guy for Wallner.  Shot or not, you still trade Jeffers for a real starting pitcher prospect, plus relief pitching help and/or an MLB ready 2B. Keep Ryan to potentially trade in the off season.  

[IndianaTwin]

48 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

The bit about Banda's injury and how popular he's become in the clubhouse bummed me out. Seemed to me like to me he wasn't too thrilled to be here after being with the back to back champs (couldn't blame him!), but sure appears now that Banda's made the most of his time with the Twins. 

I was pleased with the Banda signing. His overall stats are massively affected by an eight-day stretch in April. Other than that, he's been quite good. Hayes hints at him being a non-tender contract, but I think he's a no-brainer to bring back if he appears to be healthy by November. With missing quite a bit of time, his salary won't increase much. 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

44 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Get Louis Varland back to close games. Varland smash is missed badly at Target Field. I wouldn't give Rojas back but there must be pieces they would take including Roden. 

Zero chance the Blue Jays would be willing to trade Varland back for anything reasonable. Most teams don't trade guys under cheap team control for years to come. The Blue Jays found a gem in Varland and will be unwilling to give him up. I don't mind most of the trades from last years trade deadline, but the Louie Varland trade made almost no sense. It didn't make sense at the time and it makes even less sense now. 

[wesnewy]

Shelton has this team playing like they are never out of a game. If they could fortify the bullpen just a little bit the would probably creep up to .500

[TheLeviathan]

Twins have two more with Houston, 3 with the Yanks, 7 with the Guardians, 3 with the Cubs,  3 with the Royals, 3 with the A's, and 3 with the Angels before the deadline.  

3 teams above .500 and 4 below, so it's not a daunting schedule but this team also lost a series 3-1 to the Royals earlier this year.  

At the end of the day, reaching .500 is supposed to be the point where you take a deep breath and get to work on contending, whereas we're talking about it as if it makes you a contender.  This team simply doesn't have the defense, bullpen, or consistency offensively to be considered a contender.  I honestly don't care that the AL is weak, that's a terrible reason to pretend we're something we're not: a seller.

[NYCTK]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

This team simply doesn't have the defense, bullpen, or consistency offensively to be considered a contender.

Don't forget they're also one of the worst base-running teams in the league! 

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Being in any way happy or exited about a 500 record…or even thinking it’s meaningful…is exactly why this organization, under current direction, will perennially be meaningless.

Just say you didn't read the article

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, BillyBallLives said:

Are you suggesting we get a new motto for this team?

"Good enough to annoy you, but never good enough to matter."

Annoyance matters!

[Saxophone Joe]

24 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Don't forget they're also one of the worst base-running teams in the league! 

Yet despite all their perceived weakness, how are the Twins still hanging in there? How do they have a better record than the Blue Jays right now? Or the Tigers...or the Red Sox? 

The RISP numbers are probably a huge factor. No way will the average stay around .300 (we're starting to see it drop over the past week). 

[Nshore]

Where there's smoke there's fire.  If they add instead of subtract, they might consistently catch fire.  The most encouraging thing IMO is Mr. Lewis.  His improvement lengthens the line-up.   Give them one or two more bullpen guys, and bring up some phenoms, and the fans can have some fun down the stretch.   

[Jacksson]

Yes they can.  If/When they do, it's doubtful they will remain there.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Guys, it sure looks like 85 wins gets you into the postseason this year. 83 wins might be good enough. 85 wins means going 45-32 starting Monday for the rest of the season. Right now we're 1-0 on that quest. So I'm saying there's a chance ... 

In all seriousness, there still is a chance IMO. I think Cody's right, the 25 games from yesterday through July 31 will tell us if we can seize that chance. If we go 15-10 to get to .500, we have a shot. If we can't even do that, it's over. Play the young guys around Buxton, Bell and Clemens, promote relievers until you find at least one who can actually throw strikes coming out of the pen, and see if there's a shot. If there is, trade for a reliever or 3. If not, shut it down and use Aug 1-3 to trade the short term spare parts like Bell and Rogers, trade Larnach if you can get value for him, and see if anybody will give you even a 40-45 rated AA guy for Wallner.  Shot or not, you still trade Jeffers for a real starting pitcher prospect, plus relief pitching help and/or an MLB ready 2B. Keep Ryan to potentially trade in the off season.  

I am guessing they go 12-13 over those games for a 52-58 record at the deadline.

If pitchers can’t throw strikes and get outs in the minors, they won’t do it in the majors. They don’t need to promote pitchers to figure that out.

There are two relievers performing well in AAA. LHP Aaron Rozek is pitching effectively. I would like to see him debut, if only because he is from Burnsville and attended MN State Mankato. If he only lasts a week at least he will be able to say he was a Twin. His family should provide a temporary attendance boost. Don’t promote him while the team is on the road.
 

CJ Culpepper is doing okay, though his walk rate is too high. He could probably use more time in AAA. 

[Jacksson]

1 hour ago, wesnewy said:

Shelton has this team playing like they are never out of a game. If they could fortify the bullpen just a little bit the would probably creep up to .500

Until Shelton's own moves take us out of the game.

[bean5302]

The Pohlad family traditional philosophy seems to be:
Goal = .500
Reach Goal = Win the division
World Series = All luck.