Mick Abel Has the Foundation of a Future Ace

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Mick Abel has been on the injured list since April 20, but it appears his return may finally be right around the corner.

According to recent reports, Abel was expected to travel with the Twins to Arizona this weekend, and the timing could line up perfectly. Minnesota has yet to announce a starter for Sunday's game, which just so happens to align with Abel's turn in the rotation. If that ends up being the case, it would be a significant boost for a pitching staff that's currently dealing with injuries. With Bailey Ober and Kendry Rojas both also on the shelf, the Twins have been forced to lean heavily on their organizational depth over the last few weeks.

Beyond simply getting another arm back, though, Abel's return would bring back one of the most intriguing young starters in the organization. In fact, in his final two starts before landing on the injured list, Abel looked every bit the part of a future frontline starter. 

Facing the Tigers and Red Sox, he tossed 13 scoreless innings while allowing just eight hits and three walks. He struck out 16 batters during that span and consistently overpowered hitters from start to finish. For Twins fans, it was the first real glimpse of what Abel could become if everything clicks. And a huge reason for that optimism is his fastball.

Quite frankly, I think Abel's four-seam fastball has the potential to become one of the best pitches in all of baseball. That's a bold statement, but the underlying numbers make a very strong case. During those final two starts before his injury, Abel generated a remarkable 38.5 percent whiff rate on his four-seam fastball. Even when looking at his full-season sample, the pitch owns a 33.8 percent whiff rate. That's an absurd number. Technically, Abel doesn't qualify for league leaderboards because he hasn't thrown enough innings, but among all eligible pitchers, that 33.8 percent whiff rate would rank second in the league (behind only Jacob Misiorowski). The pitch also owns a 118 Stuff+ rating, placing it comfortably among the best fastballs in baseball. 

So why is it so effective?

A lot of it starts with Abel's arm slot. Despite standing at 6-foot-5, Abel releases the baseball from a relatively low arm angle. The delivery is very similar to Joe Ryan's in that regard, and it creates a flatter approach angle as the ball enters the strike zone. Many pitchers create a steeper downhill plane, but with how much induced vertical break Abel generates, it fools hitters up in the zone. That’s often led to swings underneath the ball, and the bat-tracking data supports exactly that. Time and time again, opposing hitters are getting under Abel's fastball rather than squaring it up.

Even when they make contact, they're frequently missing the ideal contact point. The lower arm slot also creates additional horizontal movement. Because of the way the ball comes out of his hand, his fastball features more natural tail than a traditional over-the-top delivery. That same movement profile carries over to the rest of his arsenal as well, allowing his breaking pitches to generate additional side-to-side action. It's a unique combination of traits that makes his entire pitch mix play up.

Then there's the physical component. Abel is already throwing around 95 MPH, but the radar gun doesn't tell the whole story. Thanks to his long frame and impressive mechanics, he's generating nearly seven feet of extension toward home plate. That means the ball is being released significantly closer to the hitter than average. As a result, his 95 MPH fastball effectively plays much harder. To hitters, it can look more like 98 or 99 MPH.

When you combine that type of perceived velocity with the shape of the pitch, you're talking about a very difficult fastball to handle. Of course, it's not perfect yet.  When Abel is pounding it at the top of the strike zone, it becomes incredibly difficult to do damage against. That's where the shape, approach angle, and velocity all work together at their best. The problem is that he hasn't consistently lived in that area.

There have been plenty of occasions where he's left fastballs lower in the zone, and those mistakes have been hit hard. Ideally, his fastball and secondary pitches should be attacking completely different planes. The fastball should be missing bats up, while everything else is meant to work underneath it. That's an adjustment that should come with continued experience.

It's also worth noting that Abel has been unlucky in his small sample this season. Opposing hitters own a .386 batting average on balls in play against him, an extremely high number that almost certainly isn't sustainable over the long run. As that figure begins to normalize, some of the results should start moving in his favor as well.

Still, the biggest takeaway isn't bad luck. It's the ceiling. Abel's fastball received a 65-grade evaluation when he was selected in the first round out of high school in 2020, and it's easy to understand why scouts were so excited about the pitch. The velocity, movement profile, extension, and bat-missing ability are all there.

When a pitcher has the ability to dominate hitters with a fastball alone, it changes the entire equation. Those are the kinds of arms that develop into frontline starters. Mick Abel isn't there yet, but the ingredients are obvious. If he can stay healthy and continue refining the command of that four-seamer, the Twins may have a legitimate future ace returning to their rotation sooner rather than later.

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[LambchoP]

I think we have a strong potential 1-2 punch at the top of our rotation with Abel and Bradley. I'm guessing Ryan will be gone, and maybe Pablo sometime next year. Still think we need one more top end SP because nobody in our minor league system looks ready...

 

Maybe we pick up a top of the rotation pitcher at the deadline when we trade Ryan and Jeffers.

[greglw333]

I agree with you wholeheartedly Sam! I’m salivating at Abel’s potential. It’s part of why I still have hopes for this year.

[ashbury]

Abel and Festa are of similar build, aren't they?  Do the Twins feel they have identified some sort of special sauce?

[rdehring]

Was so excited about Abel coming out of spring training.  Well, that lasted a couple of weeks.  Will he become a true #1 ACE?  Only time will tell, but it sure would help get the Twins back into a realistic hunt for the playoffs. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm a fan, but at this point it's all just speculation and projection.  Remember 2023, when our current top of the rotation arm in Joe Ryan wasn't trusted to start the third game of a playoff series?  Point is, it takes time for that development to happen and many things can derail it along the way.  I'm hopeful.  I'm optimistic, but I think it is too early to burden Abel with that kind of label.  

[h2oface]

Wow. Hope and Dreams on Steroids! Maybe revisit this when he actually stays on the field for a season. Maybe even 2 months, eh? 
 

Tait and Abel not really making the team better for the prize of Duran. Unless you like minor league value. Sure….. time and patience. Hope and Dreams. Remember  Painter was the prize the Phillies wouldn’t include?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/phillies-option-andrew-painter.html

[mnfireman]

It's also worth noting that Abel has been unlucky in his small sample this season. Opposing hitters own a .386 batting average on balls in play against him, an extremely high number that almost certainly isn't sustainable over the long run. As that figure begins to normalize, some of the results should start moving in his favor as well. 

Such is life with this years team defense... 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Wow. Hope and Dreams on Steroids! Maybe revisit this when he actually stays on the field for a season. Maybe even 2 months, eh? 
 

Tait and Abel not really making the team better for the prize of Duran. Unless you like minor league value. Sure….. time and patience. Hope and Dreams. Remember  Painter was the prize the Phillies wouldn’t include?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/phillies-option-andrew-painter.html

Not loving Painter's work at this time.. not to say he won't do very well at a future time. It's the risk you run for 'prospects ' and the risk you run if you trade.Joe Ryan for 'prospects'.