Could Top Prospect Roch Cholowsky Fall to the Minnesota Twins?

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

We all know who is going to be selected first overall in the 2026 MLB Draft in July by the Chicago White Sox. What if we don't, though?

This weekend, in one of the more stunning upsets in the history of postseason collegiate baseball, No. 1 national seed UCLA was eliminated by fourth-seeded St. Mary’s. A few months ago, the Bruins looked like a shoo-in for Omaha. In truth, they had been sputtering for weeks, peaking too early, scraping through the B1G Ten conference tournament, and losing key personnel (such as Friday night starter Logan Reddemann) to injury.

Roch Cholowsky has been the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft since the 2025 event took place, marking the possibility that an amateur prospect goes wire-to-wire in the consensus top spot in industry rankings for the first time since Adley Rutschman in 2019. This morning, however, Over Slot published their updated top-500 draft rankings, with a new name at the top of the pile: Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. With all this in mind, let’s walk through a quick update on each of the top three players in the class.

Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Cholowsky had a strong season, even if the end was muted. Despite going 2-12 in regional play, the top player in the class hit .320/.452/.636 on the season, with 21 home runs. Cholowsky walked and struck out a matching 12% of the time. Add his offensive performance together, and you have a 146 wRC+, which down from 2025 (164 wRC+), but impressive when you consider he's probably the best defensive shortstop in the class.

Cholowsky has a path to four plus tools (speed being the exception). There are some concerns around his swing and load being elongated and impacting his rotation against higher velocity in pro pitching, but he’s not encountered a litmus test for that concern in amateur baseball. 

Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS
It’s a testament to the quality of Emerson’s profile that he’s been relatively insulated from prospect fatigue. He’s been famous (in youth baseball terms) for several years, playing for four different iterations of the US National team (and playing every infield position with them).

Emerson is probably a better player at the same age than Cholowsky was, with the best hit tool in the draft class. Questions around his future profile center more on how much power he will develop. He’s seen as a lock to stick at shortstop as a professional, with evaluators placing him in the same caliber of prep prospects as Max Clark and Walker Jenkins from the 2023 cycle. Notably, the Rays (picking ahead of the Twins) have leaned heavily into left-handed-hitting prep bats in recent classes.

Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Lackey has had the most impressive season of any college player. While he doesn’t have the same historical prospect pedigree as Cholowsky, he’s had an incredible 2026, punctuated by two 450-foot home runs during regional play this weekend.

Lackey has hit .407/.529/.790 on the season with 20 home runs (175 wRC+), walking 18% of the time and striking out 13.3%. He’s stolen 15 bases at a 94% success rate and earns Patrick Bailey comps for his defensive work. There are undoubtedly front offices who see him as the best prospect in the class. Such has been his rise in 2026.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen the arc of the top pick narrative slowly shift. Initially, the White Sox were doing ‘due diligence’ on other candidates at number one. On May 7, MLB Pipeline draft expert Jim Callis opined that ‘the vibe right now is 55-60 percent that the White Sox take Roch Cholowsky’. Today, on June 1, for the first time, he’s not the number one prospect on every major industry draft board.

---

The next few weeks of postseason collegiate play will dictate the extent to which this narrative continues to be spun. Will Lackey continue to swing a hot bat? Do you think Roch Cholowsky’s grip on the number one spot in industry draft rankings is under threat? Let us know how you think it will play out in the comments.

View full article

[friedbrycenbeans]

It'll make for a more interesting draft day, but I don't see a world where the Sox don't grab Roch. 

[Dman]

If Lackey offers the better discount and the Sox feel fine about their shortstop position in the future I could easily see them pivot to Lackey.  The question then becomes would the Rays skip on Cholowsky?  He should be a fast mover.  There is no guessing he will hit for power as he has proven he can do it. 

If there are "true" concerns about the swing translating would the Twins move off Cholowsky and go with Lombard?  Lombard is supposed to have really good EV's can run like the wind and just has some potential hit tool challenges ahead.  I have heard the Giants are extremely interested in Cholowsky would they try and buy him down to the 4th pick?

This could get interesting if Lackey goes one and Emerson 2. 

[jmlease1]

It's hilarious since there's the other article about Lackey where there's much agonizing about whether or not he's really that good of a hitter, etc to see the spec that maybe the ChiSox will actually take Lackey over Roch...

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

If Lackey offers the better discount and the Sox feel fine about their shortstop position in the future I could easily see them pivot to Lackey.  The question then becomes would the Rays skip on Cholowsky?  He should be a fast mover.  There is no guessing he will hit for power as he has proven he can do it. 

If there are "true" concerns about the swing translating would the Twins move off Cholowsky and go with Lombard?  Lombard is supposed to have really good EV's can run like the wind and just has some potential hit tool challenges ahead.  I have heard the Giants are extremely interested in Cholowsky would they try and but him down to the 4th pick?

This could get interesting if Lackey goes one and Emerson 2. 

I'd go Flora over Lombard, but the draft has a lot more intrigue at the top than people expected. With Lackey putting up the numbers people hoped (expected?) Roch to put up, there seems to be some real decisions that need to be made at the top. Even before including bonus demand talk. Makes for a more exciting draft cycle!

[Cory Engelhardt]

Watch, there is a world where both Lackey and Roch are available at 3. @Jamie CameronDo you have a preference in that scenario?

[SteveLV]

No matter how it stacks up, the Twins should be able to draft and excellent player at 3.  No lose scenario, really.

[DarrenPS]

I think the best part of all of this is just the fact that it truly doesn't seem like you can go wrong with any of the top 3 options

You get Cholowsky, you get Emerson or you get Lackey & you are happy with your draft selection, which is such a great place for the Twins to be

[Matthew Trueblood]

50 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

I think the best part of all of this is just the fact that it truly doesn't seem like you can go wrong with any of the top 3 options

You get Cholowsky, you get Emerson or you get Lackey & you are happy with your draft selection, which is such a great place for the Twins to be

Exactly. Increasingly, this feels like a draft with a clear top 3, so being 3rd guarantees you access to the top tier. Personally, I like Emerson a lot, and HE feels like the one most likely to fall into their laps...

[jkcarew]

Except the Twins are in a situation where it would be nice to not have to wait for a high schooler.

With that in mind, I fully expect Emerson to fall to them. If so, don’t discount the chance of the Twins going under slot and taking someone else, and shooting for a very high upside HS arm with their second pick. Because….Twins.

[tony&rodney]

Jackson Flora is also a good choice. Cholowsky lacks foot speed, which isn't a block on how good he could be but I prefer superior athletes given how difficult MLB is in the 21st C.

I'm going to defer totally to the drafting experts but don't see a problem with any of Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, or Lombard.

The Twins are lining up for some good luck after a bad run of misfortune.

[twinstalker]

The Rays are the smartest, the White Sox have gotten smart in the last few year.  Neither team will therefore take Lackey.  I'd say the Rays could take a pitcher, except taking a pitcher is the wrong thing to do here.  The Twins will be stuck with a choice of Lackey (no thanks), Lombard, and the (hopefully) best pitcher.

[Andy MacPhail]

CWS have 3 very promising young catchers (I hope they don't pick Lackey). And if TB stick with a LH hitting prep star, Twins could end up with best player of the draft.

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

The Rays are the smartest, the White Sox have gotten smart in the last few year.  Neither team will therefore take Lackey.  I'd say the Rays could take a pitcher, except taking a pitcher is the wrong thing to do here.  The Twins will be stuck with a choice of Lackey (no thanks), Lombard, and the (hopefully) best pitcher.

It could be much worse than being 'stuck' with the 3rd pick in a draft most all experts see as having a very clear top 3.  What is it about Lackey that you dislike so much versus Cholowsky, Emerson, Lombard and Flora?

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Exactly. Increasingly, this feels like a draft with a clear top 3, so being 3rd guarantees you access to the top tier. Personally, I like Emerson a lot, and HE feels like the one most likely to fall into their laps...

Jacob Wilson was drafted a few spots behind Walker Jenkins and he has already been an allstar.  Drafting for someone on a 4-5 year plan is always risky. Drafting college players minimizes the risk by almost 2%.  Drafting the best available is a tough endeavor!