This is What a Successful Austin Martin Was Always Going to Look Like

[LA Vikes Fan]

I like Martin's game on this team. We need guys on base or our collection of plodding power guys isn't very useful. He should be playing every day and absolutely should not be ceding ABs to Clemens, who cannot hit and is not part of the medium or long term future.  

Long term, Martin probably profiles as the 4th OF once the AAA guys arrive and at least one establishes himself. I like his defense in LF. I have to think with practice and coaching he has the tools to play an average or slightly above average CF. We need a backup CF now and we're going to need a new starting or backup CF in a few seasons. We should see if Martin can be that guy, even if Emma or Jenkins becomes the starting CF in a couple of years.  I think he could be very valuable for the next 4-5 seasons as a 3rd/4th OF getting 400-500 ABs a year hitting .275-.300 with an OBP over .350 and a .375 SLG. He would even be more valuable if he could competently play 50 games a year in CF. That player can play on a winning team. 

[old nurse]

28 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Career OPS

Gallo:.775

Arraez: .776

useless comp to the question? Seems pretty comparable to me.  Gallo better defender but to the question asked....I'd take Arraez.

Neither of us are Casey Stengel friend so we can have opinions to questions posed.  If you find someone asking something you find useless, I'd say keep scrolling.  I found it an interesting question.

Career numbers are pretty meaningless on Gallo’s career arc 

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Jack Pine said:

Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, winning run on 3rd at the plate Wallner or Martin type?

Sure, Martin makes more contact and has a higher BA. Now put the runner at 1B. Wallner has 5 extra base hits so far, Martin 1. It all depends on the situation.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

There is a lot of offensive similarity here between Martin and Luis Arraez (with a touch of Ben Revere) that no one talks about. Martin is a better defender and probably a better base-runner, but they both are low power, high OBP guys. 

Martin has far more speed so doesn't clog up the bases on a single the way Arraez did/does. Arraez does have more pop - career slugging percentage of .413 versus Martin's .356. I think a better comparable is Steven Kwan, as they are both primarily left fielders with some speed and similar OBP/Slugging Percentage.

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Career numbers are pretty meaningless on Gallo’s career arc 

Or Wallner's.....?

but done with the apologists who just love the long ball..  I love this article.  Doubt AM's success lasts, but I find a buck, AM, Keaschall 1-2-3 really entertaining.  That's just me, doesn't have to be you.  Brings me back to how great baseball (they have 4 bases for a reason) is played.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, Nshore said:

It's the same reason they have Outman on the team - psychological warfare - luring the opponent into a false sense of security.  And before they know what hit them, the Twins have won the series.

This is so well played nice job! 😁😁

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

In general, the Twins line-up has been much better with seeing pitches - a breath of fresh air from previous seasons. And Martin looks to be spearheading that approach. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

Martin played far more in the outfield than at second base at Vanderbilt. He didn't play 2B at all his freshman year (but played 18 games at 1B, 9 at 3B and 28 in the outfield, as well as 2 at SS and 4 at C). His sophomore year, he was primarily at 3b (51 games) but also 18 at 2B and 4 at 1B. His final year at Vanderbilt, he again didn't play games at 2B and played primarily in the OF. 

In the minors for Toronto, he split time about evenly between SS and OF, with no time at 2B. 

So, it's hard for me to accept the premise that Martin is primarily a 2B and was 'forced' into the OF by the Twins.

Is that what they call bringing the receipts?  That's for the info!

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Arraez does have more pop - career slugging percentage of .413 versus Martin's .356. 

Batting Average is incredibly important.  But if the topic is "pop" in the bat, BA contributes a lot to the slugging percentage (and again, rightly so for the purpose of counting total bases).  I would look at a stat like ISO which separates out the extra-base component of the hitter's contribution, and lifetime Arraez is .096 vs Martin .088.  League ISO is typically more like .150 or .160, so I wouldn't say either player has much and the distinction between them in terms of "pop" is minimal compared to the gap from them to just an average player.

[rdehring]

Don't recall which of the games in Toronto, but Buxton, Martin and Keashall led off the game with pressure on the Jays.  Don't recall if that was the game they got three in the first, but loved what this threesome can do.  Or was that game against Detroit?  Anyway, I loved it.

Add me to those who are eager to see Martin begin playing more, especially against right-handed pitchers.  I also am from the camp who want to see Martin playing with the Twins for the next 5+ years.  There aren't a lot of guys on this team I can say that about.

[Linus]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Small Sample.  Small Sample.  Small sample.  He's drawing walks right now at a higher rate than Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who led the majors last year - power has something to do with their success at that.  Martin's  batting average on balls in play is like Aaron Judge's last year.  Without power, these numbers won't be sustainable - pitchers will just start throwing him strikes and take their chances on a more typical non-HoF BABIP, and the overall value will start to normalize.  Two SB and three CS add to the picture of "less value than apparent."

I listed him as one of the bright spots of the early season but you have identified the other shoe that will drop. Teams are soon going to quit walking him and make him swing the bat, that’s when the rubber will hit the road. I think he’s played well in left but not so much elsewhere. He can make things happen on the bases but he also makes plenty of mistakes as well. So I hope he gets a steady run to see if he can get some hits, build on some solid D in LF and clean up his baserunning. Let’s see what we got. 

[DocBauer]

I don't dislike Martin at all. I've been rooting for him to turn in to the HITTER he projects to be. That's a guy capable of. 280-.290 with an OB% of around .370-.380. He has the ability to do that. He also has the ability to steal some bases, but he's only 20-10 on SB in hus brief ML career. A 66% success rate just doesn't cut it.  He needs to be at a minimum 75% and 80% would be better. He needs that especially since actual DOUBLES power doesn't look all that promising so far. 

I like him for what he is, a better defender than he was previously, a solid contact bat, and someone who can work a count and get OB. But ML pitchers are going to start challenging him more and more with his lack of power as they just aren't going to be afraid of him.

At that point, he's going to HAVE to show he can pop some DBLs at least, and be able to continue fouling off strikes to get that BB. I don't see any way he can maintain a .400 OB%. But I can see that .370-.380 range if he also continues to actually HIT.

Buxton was moves to leadoff to get his bat going again. I don't have a problem with that. But I absolutely would love to see Buck hit #2, or even #3, with Keaschall ahead of him, and probably Martin as well. I understand Shelton trying to LENGTHEN the depth of the lineup. I like that idea in principle. But almost anyone is a better choice than Clemens on the team. Clemens should be somewhere around 7th-8th, hitting mistakes for HR and XBH.

With Buxton starting to get untracked, I'd personally have Keaschall hit #1, and put Martin in the #2 spot where his approach helps Keaschall steal bases, or get moved over by Martin, or allows Martin himself to get OB. Buck would have had a 100 RBI in 2025 if he had more men on base. I think Bell, Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers, and Lewis, etc, can provide a fairly deep lineup 4-7+ plus without playing the Clemens leadoff scenario.

As far as Martin's future, I think he's got one if he can play an honest CF to go along with LF. (He really doesn't have the arm you want in RF). But I think his future is as a 4th or co-4th OF. Probably 250-300 AB a season. Rodriguez and Jenkins are just better players, potentially. And if Roden batted RH, I'm not sure Martin is on the current roster. While a slightly different offensive player than Martin, I think Roden is the more "dangerous" hitter. And while Gonzalez MIGHT end up at 1B...not a bad outcome...he currently also figures in to the OF situation as well.

I have a vision of Rodriguez,  Buxton, and Jenkins as the primary starting OF with Gonzalez and Roden playing 1B and the OF along with Martin and Wallner as the primary DH. There's room for that group of 6 to fill the OF, 1B, and DH spots. That's not a bad outcome at all. It only requires a little imagination on the Twins behalf.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

I listed him as one of the bright spots of the early season but you have identified the other shoe that will drop. Teams are soon going to quit walking him and make him swing the bat, that’s when the rubber will hit the road. I think he’s played well in left but not so much elsewhere. He can make things happen on the bases but he also makes plenty of mistakes as well. So I hope he gets a steady run to see if he can get some hits, build on some solid D in LF and clean up his baserunning. Let’s see what we got. 

Absolutely. Seeing what we got should be the number 1 objective for this season. 

[HrbieFan]

I am waiting for the mods to choke on carrots for their bashing of the Caratini signing. Talk about rubes running a site SMH. Do they have Alec Jackson huggy dolls? 

[twinstalker]

It makes no sense to do a retrospective on minor league OBP.  In the minors, OBP is a consequence of relative passivity, almost always, and the pitchers' lack of control.  A guy like Martin might be able to walk because of a "good eye" but the only reason he's walking in MLB, ultimately, is because pitchers are afraid of him.  Or noise in an early sample size.

There's a pitch recognition, it seems, and that does translate, but right now there's little reason for the pitchers to mess around with him.  Throw the ball over the middle and see if he hurts you.  Too lazy to do a AAA statcast analysis of Austin Martin, so I won't.

[Trov]

23 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

what a useless comp. Why not say runner on 3rd in the top of the 9th with 1 out and the Twins ahead by one run, who do you want in RF? Unless you're talking about super-duper stars, you're pretty much always going to be able to find a scenario where one player is "better" than the other. How is this helpful?

Martin's a useful player, as long as he can keep getting on base: avoiding outs is incredibly important to having a good offense. For him to be more impactful, he'll need to be able to apply his speed better on the basepaths and in the OF. He's shown flashes.

I don't have a problem with the Twins looking at adding some power to his approach in the minors. That's what the minors is for: to try and perform player development to maximize their success. It's difficult for players with basically zero power to make it and sustain it; it's why we talk about them like they're unicorns. If you're not a threat to turn on a ball and punish a pitcher for throwing a meatball or hanging a curve, you need to get on base a LOT to compensate for it, and if you're not adding another tool to the bag, then the floor might be ok, but the ceiling is not very high. If they could have added a little more pop to his bat, maybe we're looking at more of a Shannon Stewart type on offense.

There's not a lot of comps for what Martin is doing right now. He's not going to maintain the .500 OBP; even a .400 OBP is elite. 

My hypothetical point was there are times, a guy that will get a single at higher rates has more value than a power guy.  Yes, there are times you will want the power guy over the single hitter, but my point was having all of one type, regardless of type, is not a good way to build a line up.  I was not saying one is always better than the other.  I also agree that there are times you would rather have a better arm in case you need to cut down a run, never said Martin was better than Wallner, just comparing the type of hitters they are. 

In terms of trying to add power in the minors, no fault there of Twins either.  If you can add power but still have good results then great, but clearly it did not help him.  Martin will never be a super star, but having a guy that can get on base a ton is always going to be good for a team.   

[nova_twins]

Yes it's a small sample, but still, what Martin has done from a plate discipline perspective is pretty crazy. Below is the MLB leaderboard for everyone over 20 PAs. Martin is #1 by far and would be borderline top 5% if his chase rate *doubled*.

Now, some of this is platoon advantage, along with sample size. But still, hard to ignore an outlier like this. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

I'm happy to see Martin performing well so far this season. Keep him in the outfield for sure. I'd still love to see him as a regular starter, but with this logjam in the outfield I guess he will have to take what playing time he can,

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

I'm happy to see Martin performing well so far this season. Keep him in the outfield for sure. I'd still love to see him as a regular starter, but with this logjam in the outfield I guess he will have to take what playing time he can,

Today's home run becomes important if it's the start of a trend.  Up until now he's been walking a lot.  If he can begin to punish pitches in the strike zone, while still laying off the pitches outside it - well, that's a deceptively simple formula that has stood the test of time, right?

That, plus doing all of it against opponents who throw right-handed too.  😁