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Posted
Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Spring training stats don't matter, but usage trends do, especially at this stage of the game. We're now only 11 days from the season opener in Baltimore. The Twins roster has been whittled down and Derek Shelton is increasingly obligated to operate with — to borrow a word he likes — intentionality. 

This is no longer just about getting guys their reps and experimenting. As Opening Day approaches, players needs to start acclimating to their planned roles, and final decisions need to be informed. So it's worthwhile to keep a close eye on lineup construction and pitcher deployment, which we track in this space.

Last week we checked in who's been playing where in the first half of camp. Here's an update seven days later with a few quick notes on what stands out. Total starts are listed next to each player, with their number of starts in the past week (Monday through Sunday) listed in parentheses.

Catcher

No surprises here. The top three catchers are splitting reps evenly. But the Twins aren't really breaking in anyone as a third-string catcher for the event that Jackson doesn't make it through waivers. Cardenas, who's presumed to fill that role, has seen plenty of action as a sub.

First Base

The balanced usage here reinforces my belief that first base will be heavily rotated. I don't expect Wagaman to make the Opening Day roster, but would guess he'll see plenty of action there over the course of the season.

Second Base

I mentioned last week that I was surprised to see Clemens getting so many spring starts at second base (and so few at first). Since then he's made two starts at first and zero at second. 

Third Base

The injury scare that got Lewis scratched from the lineup a couple weeks ago now appears to be completely in the rear-view, which is good news. He's been starting at his set position as consistently as anyone else of late. Still no appearances at third base for Clemens, even as a sub.

Shortstop

  • Brooks Lee: 13x (4x)
  • Orlando Arcia: 5x (1x)
  • Tristan Gray: 3x (1x)
  • Ryan Kreidler: 3x (1x)

Lee leads the team in starts at a single spot this spring with 13 at short, as the Twins continue to evaluate his three backup options. This position has perhaps the worst starter and the worst depth on the roster.

Left Field

Keaschall getting two more starts in left field was the most eye-catching development in camp over the past week. It's starting to look less like a novelty and more like something the Twins could actually implement at times (although he hasn't looked the sharpest out there). If Keaschall, Martin, Larnach, and Outman or Roden are all options in left field, the Twins will have plenty of matchup flexibility.

Note that Larnach was originally scheduled to play left field on Sunday against the Red Sox, but was scratched shortly before game time with left side soreness, so that will be something to keep an eye on. If he has to start on the injured list, the door is flung wide open for Roden, who continues to produce this spring.

 

Center Field

  • James Outman: 6x (1x)
  • Byron Buxton: 4x
  • Austin Martin: 5x (3x)
  • Alan Roden: 5x (2x)
  • Ryan Kreidler: 2x (1x)
  • Walker Jenkins: 1x
  • Emmanuel Rodriguez: 1x

The candidates to back up Buxton have all been getting plenty of looks while he's away at the World Baseball Classic. Among that trio, Outman is the truest center fielder, but the Twins are taking every opportunity to evaluate the viability of Martin and Roden, who got five of seven starts.

Right Field

  • Matt Wallner: 10x (3x)
  • Alan Roden: 6x (2x)
  • Trevor Larnach: 4x (2x)
  • James Outman: 2x
  • Ryan Kreidler: 1x
  • Gabriel Gonzalez: 1x

I continue to believe that Wallner will be the starter in right field almost every day. Unlike left, the Twins aren't really setting up platooning possibilities at the position, with lefty hitters starting 23 of 25 games, including all seven last week. One related note: On Sunday, Martin made (I believe) his first spring appearance in right field, sliding over in the middle innings after starting in left.

Designated Hitter

  • Bell: 5x (3x)
  • Wallner: 3x (1x)
  • Larnach: 3x (1x)
  • Urshela: 3x (1x)
  • Lewis: 2x (1x)
  • Buxton: 2x
  • Caratini: 1x
  • Jeffers: 1x
  • Keaschall: 1x
  • Rodriguez: 1x
  • Gonzalez: 1x
  • Mendez: 1x

About what you'd expect: the three clear bat-first players on the roster getting a majority of DH time. If Larnach misses time that could shake things up here.

The Pitching Carousel
As we march toward Opening Day, it becomes increasingly interesting to follow the pitching usage. Who's starting, in what order, and how are they mapping toward the first series of the season? On the relief side, who is entering in the early part of games? Generally, you expect the pitchers who are going to be in more significant roles to be the first ones in — you're never guaranteed to face high-end competition in spring training, especially at home, but you're far more likely to throw against legit MLB hitters if you're coming in for the fifth or sixth versus the eighth or ninth.

Here's how the starters lined up over the past seven days, along with the first and second relievers to enter (not including the stock arms who enter to finish the last inning for a starter):

Here are a few observations based on what I'm seeing above. Take them with a grain of salt because observations and extrapolations is all they are.

Joe Ryan should be in line to start on Opening Day. He made his first official spring start on Tuesday and threw 48 pitches over three innings. From there it sounded like his next appearance might come for Team USA in a potential WBC championship game this coming Tuesday, but this plan has been nixed. With Ryan staying in camp, my assumption is that he'll start Monday against the Pirates (75 pitches?), then again on Saturday against the Rays (90?), setting him up pitch in Baltimore on March 26th with a standard four days' rest.

Simeon Woods Richardson could do it too, though. Woods Richardson pushed all the way to 79 pitches in his latest start on Saturday, so he's ahead of Ryan in terms of build-up. And if the Twins were following a standard five-man starting cycle from here forward (one game on, four games off), Woods Richardson's turn would be up on Opening Day. I bet he's the backup plan if Ryan can't go for any reason.

Liam Hendriks and Taylor Rogers poised to split closer duties? If you look at earlier spring game usage as an indicator of expected role leverage, then Hendriks and Rogers are tracking toward claiming late-inning spots, alongside Cole Sands, who we know is going to be the de facto fireman. One might surmise that Hendriks and Rogers will be the go-to ninth-inning options depending on matchups. This is more or less what I would've expected — both offer a great deal of closing experience, if not a ton of upside at this stage of their careers.

Zak Kent trending toward a bullpen role. The Twins are trying to get a look at their latest reliever acquisition against reasonably decent competition. Claimed off waivers on February 26th to fill the 40-man spot vacated by Pablo López, Kent has been getting some valuable opportunities and making the most of them. He was the second reliever in on Tuesday and the first in on Friday. In 4 ⅔ innings across four total appearances, he has allowed two hits and a walk with seven strikeouts. I have to imagine Kent is either going to make the roster or be DFA'ed to make room for a Hendriks or Andrew Chafin, so it makes sense the Twins are giving him some real chances to show what he's got.

Time for back-to-backs. Unless I'm mistaken, we still haven't seen a reliever pitch on back-to-back days yet. It's a key aspect of spring ramp-up, and is especially important for someone like Hendriks who needs to prove himself physically coming off an injury-ravaged stretch. Keep an eye on that in the coming week.

Anything catching your eye in terms of usage trends and decision-making as we march into the latter portion of camp? Sound off in the comments and let us know where you'll be focusing in the final full week of spring training.


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Verified Member
Posted

I think Arcia is a pretty good backup SS.  He was an All Star two or three years ago.  He is what 31?  I don't think he is an all star anymore but could hold down SS for a while with slightly below average D and slightly below average offense.  I prefer he not be the starter for long stretches.  But he should be fine for backup and 200-250 plate appeances when rest is needed for the starter 

Verified Member
Posted

It'd be a crime against humanity if Abel doesn't make this team.  If necessary, they could go with a 6 man rotation.  They could have SWR or Ober scheduled for 4 or 5 innings and Abel or Matthews to finish.  4 innings is all SWR usually goes anyway.  Why not plan for it?

Verified Member
Posted

Matthews at some point may be destined for a bullpen role.  Both him and Festa seem to be short inning starters because they cant get thru a lineup 3 times effectively. 
Abel seems to have outperformed all the other young SPs. 

Posted
1 hour ago, #3Killer said:

My biggest concern is Lewis. What a terrible spring. Larnach is right behind. 
not Sue Wallner will contribute anything either. Super disappointed in these “veterans”.

Wallner's having a great spring. I feel confident in him. Lewis definitely concerning. The at-bats are bringing back memories of last year, when he seemed to be hunting for homers way too aggressively. His numbers: 30 PA, 3 H (2 HR), 1 BB

Posted
1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I think Arcia is a pretty good backup SS.  He was an All Star two or three years ago.  He is what 31?  I don't think he is an all star anymore but could hold down SS for a while with slightly below average D and slightly below average offense.  I prefer he not be the starter for long stretches.  But he should be fine for backup and 200-250 plate appeances when rest is needed for the starter 

The tricky thing for Arcia is the roster math since he's an NRI. If we assume fellow NRIs Hendriks and Chafin are making the bullpen, that'd mean three spots need to be opened up on the 40-man. Not impossible but not easy or painless. Another thing is that Arcia is mad slow, even slower than Lee. 

Personally I think he needed to come into camp and wow them to win a spot, not sure he's done that so far. If they are able to stash him at Triple-A that'd be nice, I'm unsure of his opt-out situation.

Verified Member
Posted

Any noise about Kopech?  This pen has no shutdown reliever as of now.  Taylor and Hendricks are way past their prime and Sands has never shown the mental toughness to close out games.  If Tom Pohlad has any credibility left(???) they have to sign Kopech who at least has some potential in the closer role.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

First comment: No, no, no to Keaschall in LF. Let him get acclimated to 2B on a daily basis! However, it's very possible he's only getting looks there to see how well he's prepared. The rumor is they just want to knownhenis ready for late game/extra innings options if the lineup is shuffled during games. That does make some sense.

Lost INF opportunities, IMO: With the INF being so light on depth, Clemens should be playing some 3B. He's played it previously, and he might at least be an emergency guy there. Wagaman can/has played some 3B at the ML level. Again, he can at least be an emergency option there. Maybe they're working behind the scenes with those two? I'd be getting them a little game action.

Utility INF: My hunch is Arcia due to veteran status. Kreidler and Gray both have options and can be brought up at any time. The biggest issue is making room for Arcia on the 40 man.

The Larnach/DH/1B issue: Forgetting the fact that most agree the roster just doesn't make sense with Larnach, if he IS hurt to begin the season, it might make room for Wagaman, which helps balance the roster. Then it comes down to Outman or Roden making the club. Does Roden and Martin getting so much CF time of late tell us Outman is far from assured that final spot?

Bullpen: Kent might be taking Orze's spot. And that's probably the right call at this point. Supposedly, Topa's velocity is sitting good. So why such a bad camp? Is he just trying different things? I still think he opens with the club. An interesting "problem" might be Altavilla. He's nothing special, but he's got solid career ML numbers, even if the size of his career isn't very large. His camp velocity was reported as a career high, and he was good in SSSS before going to the Classic. He might be a surprise addition, and maybe should be. We are really short on the RH side in the pen. But he also would need a 40 man spot. Would he clear waivers? Not keeping him could be a real mistake.

Funderburk is having a good ST, following a good 2 months to close out 2025. Is he really going to be sent down as the youngest LH in the pen? As someone who might have a few years ahead of him in the Twins pen? It doesn't make sense, but it could happen.

Rotation: It's down to the more experienced Matthews and the younger Abel for the #5 spot. Matthews had a good game today, Sunday, working around a bad error or two. Whoever "loses" will still spend most of the season with the Twins before the year is done. So it might not matter much who wins the initial #5 spot. But I think it's a coin flip right now.

I don't wish ANYONE to ever be injured. But IF Larnach can't start the season, it does allow the player roster to settle in to something that looks more balanced and makes more sense. Wagaman takes his spot opending day, and you keep Roden and "risk" losing Outman on waivers. IMO, that's an acceptable "risk" to keep the younger player with an actual future. Other than attempting to select the "best" of 3 poor/mediocre options for the utility spot, the position player portion of the roster makes about as much sense as you can have.

An unusual problem: If Outman and Jackson are removed, 2 spots open up on the 40 man for Chaffin, and possibly Arcia. But there would have to be another move made to free up a spot for Altavilla if he he gets an opportunity to throw these final 10-11 days of camp. And why wouldn't you? A decent ML veteran having a solid camp, SSS, who's throwing 98 with solid career HIT/IP and K numbers...with some admitted BB issues...and you're scrambling for RH pen arms.

In SOME final combination, you're going to have 3 LHRP. From the RH side you have Hendricks, Sands, Topa, and we'll say Kent makes it. Orze hasn't shown much, and has options. There's not much left folks. And you just can't have 4 LH options. It just makes ZERO sense. So maybe Altavilla makes it? Then where is your next cut to be able to add hum to the 40 man?

Look, I'm NOT saying this is a great 40 man roster! I'm just saying, as imperfect as it is, I don't know who's the OBVIOUS cut.

Now, what if Arcia is willing to go to AAA to start the season? Maybe he's got a player cut off day? So maybe the Twins decide Kreidler's glove outweighs his hitting like a pitcher? Or maybe Gray is the most "balanced" option of glove/bat to at least begin the season? Then you can add someone like Altavilla for a pen that is STARVING for a couple high velocity arms.

It's really SAD that ST is winding down and we're trying to decide the "best of the worst" for backup SS/INF, and STILL trying to find enough decent RH arms for the pen that don't make you CRINGE when they come in to games.

Posted

Kreidler’s bat may be nonexistent but he can play some defense. Looked good in center today (Sunday) and has played well at SS. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Nick NelsonWould he even want to opt out. Its not like there is a line of clubs looking for a slow SS that doesn’t hit much. 

True story. I just never know how it's gonna go asking a 31-year-old with 1,000 games in the majors to go to Triple-A. Sometimes they prefer to just try their luck overseas. But being the top SS contingency behind Brooks Lee, and his history of back/performance issues, is seemingly a pretty favorable spot.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
44 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Wallner's having a great spring. I feel confident in him. Lewis definitely concerning. The at-bats are bringing back memories of last year, when he seemed to be hunting for homers way too aggressively. His numbers: 30 PA, 3 H (2 HR), 1 BB

I also have a lot of faith in Wallner. And he's been heating up.

In regard to Lewis, my #1 concern is his being HEALTHY. And so far, he is. You know as well as me that ST results often mean beans in regard to the season for a veteran player. And Lewis IS a veteran. He's adjusted his stance and approach this offseason and has reportedly worked pretty hard at it. The fact he's still getting "comfortable" shouldn't be a big surprise. 

Now, fully healthy and May 1st comes along and he's hitting .220 with a poor OB% and little else showing, THEN I'll really worry, if not panic. The health appears to be there, and the work ethic is never in question, IMO. So I'm going to let things slide for a few more weeks before I throw up my hands.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

True story. I just never know how it's gonna go asking a 31-year-old with 1,000 games in the majors to go to Triple-A. Sometimes they prefer to just try their luck overseas. But being the top SS contingency behind Brooks Lee, and his history of back/performance issues, is seemingly a pretty favorable spot.

I agree. Nobody was knocking on his door for a ML job. Pride could get in the way. But I can also see him looking at the Twins roster and realizing he's 1 injury away from coming up, probably. 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
8 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Kreisler’s bat may be nonexistent but he can play some defense. Looked good in center today (Sunday) and has played well at SS. 

IMO, the question is: Would the Twins be willing to live with a backup SS/utility player who hits like a pitcher...in previous days when they actually did bat...for his glove and versatility? At least to start the season?

If the glove work as the 13th man is more important, it raises the bar for Roden to make the club. (Which he should anyway). And IF Larnach is out for a while, it also allows Wagaman to make the club, balancing the roster better.

Verified Member
Posted
20 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Any noise about Kopech?  This pen has no shutdown reliever as of now.  Taylor and Hendricks are way past their prime and Sands has never shown the mental toughness to close out games.  If Tom Pohlad has any credibility left(???) they have to sign Kopech who at least has some potential in the closer role.

Kopech was on a podcast earlier this year and outright stated he doesn’t want to pitch for a losing team.  He also stated his focus is on being part of a playoff roster.  This was in late January (if I recall correctly), so I don’t know if he has backed off on his stance.  From the lack of rumors surrounding him, I’m not sure teams are lining up to sign him either.

This was reported in a mailbag questions post by MLBTR for front office subscribers.

Verified Member
Posted
2 hours ago, Nshore said:

It'd be a crime against humanity if Abel doesn't make this team.  If necessary, they could go with a 6 man rotation.  They could have SWR or Ober scheduled for 4 or 5 innings and Abel or Matthews to finish.  4 innings is all SWR usually goes anyway.  Why not plan for it?

Piggybacking doesn't work in the real world.  The game situation starting the 7th inning is going to dictate pitching matchups and you can't just assume who ever comes in to pitch second will get more than two innings.

Verified Member
Posted

Let Keaschall play one position to learn and get comfortable with that position.  We have seen he has a lot of work to do to play the outfield.  So let him play 2B where he looks more comfortable and learn the position.  Stop making everyone into utility players.

I want to see the 12 best position players make the roster plus whoever whoever is the backup SS.  Yes I know positions matter as well, but I don't like having Wagaman on the roster just to balance the roster.  He brings limited defense and very little offense, there are players having better camps.

 

Posted
55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

True story. I just never know how it's gonna go asking a 31-year-old with 1,000 games in the majors to go to Triple-A. Sometimes they prefer to just try their luck overseas. But being the top SS contingency behind Brooks Lee, and his history of back/performance issues, is seemingly a pretty favorable spot.

If that's the case he's making the team right? 

Verified Member
Posted
50 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Piggybacking doesn't work in the real world.  The game situation starting the 7th inning is going to dictate pitching matchups and you can't just assume who ever comes in to pitch second will get more than two innings.

On the Twins team, I like the "piggyback" pitcher's chances better than whatever "has been" reliever that they're going to drag out of the bullpen.  But you're right it's something different so they'd never do it.

Verified Member
Posted
3 hours ago, Chembry said:

Kopech was on a podcast earlier this year and outright stated he doesn’t want to pitch for a losing team.  He also stated his focus is on being part of a playoff roster.  This was in late January (if I recall correctly), so I don’t know if he has backed off on his stance.  From the lack of rumors surrounding him, I’m not sure teams are lining up to sign him either.

This was reported in a mailbag questions post by MLBTR for front office subscribers.

Kopech won't be ready for opening day at this point, and to be frank, it seems like he probably priced himself out of the market. He was injured almost all of last year and his inability to hit the broad side of a barn resurfaced.

Honestly, I think he's going to have to settle on a 1 year deal at this point, and for probably a LOT less than he was thinking. I could see him signing at 1yr $6MM now, and he's not going to be able to choose who he plays for. 

The good news is, on a one year deal, he won't be playing for a losing club at the end of the season if he's any good.

Verified Member
Posted

Can't stand Keaschall in LF. It's asinine. Shelton is truly Baldelli v2.0 as everybody feared. This roster feels like open tryouts. 

Lewis has 8 hard hit balls and 3 barrels with only 3 hits. If the BABIP of .057 comes up, I expect he'll be fine.

Verified Member
Posted
8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The tricky thing for Arcia is the roster math since he's an NRI. If we assume fellow NRIs Hendriks and Chafin are making the bullpen, that'd mean three spots need to be opened up on the 40-man. Not impossible but not easy or painless. Another thing is that Arcia is mad slow, even slower than Lee. 

Personally I think he needed to come into camp and wow them to win a spot, not sure he's done that so far. If they are able to stash him at Triple-A that'd be nice, I'm unsure of his opt-out situation.

What you're saying makes sense.  I don't get to see everything and I am looking at Kreidler hasn't played much in the majors and Arcia has years experience.  And while he was an all-star, he wasn't that great but he was an above average hitter pretty recently.  I figured that alone gives Arcia a huge edge.  And Kreidler could come off the roster.  Also they could stash Arcia on AAA the first month of the season to give Kreidler his shot and then he gets out righted off the roster if he doesn't produce.....

Old-Timey Member
Posted
19 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think Arcia is a pretty good backup SS.  He was an All Star two or three years ago.  He is what 31?  I don't think he is an all star anymore but could hold down SS for a while with slightly below average D and slightly below average offense.  I prefer he not be the starter for long stretches.  But he should be fine for backup and 200-250 plate appeances when rest is needed for the starter 

This is not a convincing endorsement. 

Rostering players that you hope don't play is the biggest roster mistake that clubs can make. 

Giving one of only 13 roster spots to someone that you say is fine for a backup as long as they don't play for long stretches is taking an already limited 13 roster spots and further limiting something that is already severely limited. 

Leaving no room or solution for failure or injury to the player that you hope plays for long stretches. 

 

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
12 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

True story. I just never know how it's gonna go asking a 31-year-old with 1,000 games in the majors to go to Triple-A. Sometimes they prefer to just try their luck overseas. But being the top SS contingency behind Brooks Lee, and his history of back/performance issues, is seemingly a pretty favorable spot.

As an organization.

SS is in impressively bad shape. 

Posted
44 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

As an organization.

SS is in impressively bad shape. 

True, But it seems like we draft a bunch of shortstops every year. It's almost become a running joke. Great; another shortstop. So what is going wrong with all these picks?

Verified Member
Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

This is not a convincing endorsement. 

Rostering players that you hope don't play is the biggest roster mistake that clubs can make. 

Giving one of one only 13 roster spots to someone that you say is fine for a backup as long as they don't play for long stretches is taking an already limited 13 roster spots and further limiting something that is already severely limited. 

Leaving no room or solution for failure or injury to the player that you hope plays for long stretches. 

 

 

I'm sorry for lazy writing.  I meant Kreidler gets a month or so to show he should keep the job and if not about a month in can be replaced.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
3 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

True, But it seems like we draft a bunch of shortstops every year. It's almost become a running joke. Great; another shortstop. So what is going wrong with all these picks?

College or high school players that are good enough to be considered for the draft... they are typically the best player on the team at Georgia Tech or at Duluth East high. Typically the best player by some distance and the best player on the team typically plays SS. 

Therefore all teams draft a lot of shortstops. Once they reach the professional level the best player at Georgia Tech is standing along side the best player at Duluth East and the qualification for the position is redefined dependent upon on who you are standing next to.   

What is going wrong? Good question but something has been going wrong for quite some time. SS, CF, C and 1B development has been bare for a long long period of time. 

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I'm sorry for lazy writing.  I meant Kreidler gets a month or so to show he should keep the job and if not about a month in can be replaced.

Either way.

We are still talking about Carson Wentz backing up McCarthy.

Brooks Lee is our McCarthy.

Meanwhile Wentz is just fine as long as he doesn't see the field. 

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