Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projection, v3.0

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

Assuming they will magically become "top end relievers" is hilarious

You are more valuable as a starter. Period

They will contribute 0 WAR pitching in St. Paul.

If they don't have the talent to become a decent reliever, then they'll never be able to hack it as more than a journeyman 5th starter. Those pitchers are a freely available on waivers.

How many years do you want Marco Raya to suck as a starter before they try him as a reliever? Personally, I think three lousy seasons is enough.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

When they fail in the bigs is when you move them to the pen. 

That's exactly Festa. 25 games with an ERA over 5. Turns 26 in 2026. Can't stay healthy enough to pitch a full season in the rotation.

Matthews has 25 starts with an ERA of 5.92. Also turns 26 in 2026. He's on a short leash.

Bailey Ober was bad last season in the rotation and is turning 30. If his fastball doesn't come back, they should expect the same performance as last season.

Raya's not going to get a chance to fail as a starter in the big leagues because he can't hack it in the AAA rotation. He hasn't pitched well enough to earn a promotion since A-ball.

How much longer do these guys need to fail before the Twins are allowed to move them to the bullpen? How many more seasons?

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I will bet $20 neither Adams or Klein are on the opening 26 man unless there are injuries.  

They have mentioned or implied to 2 more additions to the bullpen.  I guess if they sign Kahnle we can see some blowups with Hawkins LOL.  Needless to say I doubt either party is interested.  But that cuts the options down by 1 and this is as Robertson has retired.  Suter, Kopech is my best hope now.   

I agree. I think Adams and Klein are just placeholders for now. I'd love Kopech but he's looking for a multi-year deal and the Yankees and Giants are both interested.   I except one more FA signing - either Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle, Ryan Brasier, someone like that who was once good and is now older or coming back from injury. My money is on Sewald. Evan Phillips would be a good signing but he had TJ in June 2025 and wouldn't be available until the second half of 2026. I expect Dan Altavilla to make the opening day roster -   he's good when healthy, but breaks down after 30-40 innings - perfect replacement for Stewart. They will knock out Adams and Klein, both of whom are next men up at St. Paul and both of whom will see MLB action this year.  

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, DarrenPS said:

It's crazy to me that Twins fans want to give up on Raya after 1 off season in AAA as a *checks notes* 22 year old for most of the season.

Except they moved him to the pen after he was at an ERA of 8.00+ and giving up more than 6 BB/9 and averaging 3 innings a starter. He is a long ways from being a possible major league starter, I think he provides more value long-term in the majors in the pen.

Bottom line, I don't think they trade for Bradley and Abel if they really believed in the crop of starting pitchers that are nearing the cusp of the majors are going to stay in the rotation long-term. Some of them are going to transition to the bullpen and that's alright. You could have argued the same of Duran when they moved him to the pen after very little time starting at AAA - the theoretical upside of him as a starter was huge but that didn't stop them from putting him in the pen.

1 hour ago, DarrenPS said:

Same can be said for Kendry Rojas, he was 22 all of last season and will spend the entire 2026 season as a 23 year old. Do we not realize as a fan base how impressive it is to even make it to AAA at 22?

It was very aggressive to have him pitch at AAA, I would plan on him pitching all of 2026 in AAA and keep him as a starter.

[TheLeviathan]

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

IF they go the trade route to add a reliever, that'll be interesting to see what they focus on as far as they type of pitcher they target.

I would not move Bradley or Abel or Zebby or Prielipp or SWR to the rotation. Morris frankly I'd keep in the rotation in AAA too. If Prielipp and Morris are in the rotation in St. Paul that's fine, and frankly one of the others (Zebby or Abel or both) also start the year in St. Paul, I'd prefer to keep the depth too. All of them will start games throughout the year in the majors, and before the trade deadline (if there aren't other injuries) there will definitely be openings to earn right? One or both of Ryan and Ober for sure, as well as Pablo, are all maybe on other teams come August.

I wouldn't transform them all into relievers, and I'd personally also do most of the ones you listed last, along with Rojas. However, the team has to start picking players and ripping the band aid off. 

But those five are never going to be making up a five man rotation. At some point it has to happen for most of these guys. And they don't seem to thrive until decision is done and permanent. The mid-season flip-flop never works for them. I'm sure they'll switch some of these guys over come July or August, but we'll have no idea if it will take until the following season.

But Bradley? I think he's pretty close to making the switch. Three seasons with no improvement and declining strikeout numbers. A former top prospect AND a trade acquisition? Yeah, that's a double band-aid pull that no one wants close the rotation door on; he really reminds me of Trevor May.

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's exactly Festa. 25 games with an ERA over 5. Turns 26 in 2026. Can't stay healthy enough to pitch a full season in the rotation.

Matthews has 25 starts with an ERA of 5.92. Also turns 26 in 2026. He's on a short leash.

Bailey Ober was bad last season in the rotation and is turning 30. If his fastball doesn't come back, they should expect the same performance as last season.

Raya's not going to get a chance to fail as a starter in the big leagues because he can't hack it in the AAA rotation. He hasn't pitched well enough to earn a promotion since A-ball.

How much longer do these guys need to fail before the Twins are allowed to move them to the bullpen? How many more seasons?

Well, when you lump Bailey Ober in there it seems like you're saying you get one shot and then it's off to the bullpen for you! Why would Bailey Ober be relevant to this discussion?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DarrenPS said:

It's crazy to me that Twins fans want to give up on Raya after 1 off season in AAA as a *checks notes* 22 year old for most of the season. He is 23 and will be until August. Guess what has more value in trades, AAA young starters, or AAAA relievers? Stop trying to move every starting pitcher to the pen and immediately counting them out

Same can be said for Kendry Rojas, he was 22 all of last season and will spend the entire 2026 season as a 23 year old. Do we not realize as a fan base how impressive it is to even make it to AAA at 22?

It would be better to trade pitchers than move everyone to the pen like these comments tend to want to do

Festa will be 26 this year - Prielipp will be 25 this year - Matthews will be 26 this year.

Festa & Prielipp have had injury issues and could use further inning monitoring in 2026. Much easier to control innings AND utilize benefit of the guy’s talents from the PEN, IMO.

Matthews could potentially thrive in cutting back his repertoire to 2-3 pitches and shifting to a high leverage role in the PEN.

Raya will be 23 and has more time.

Opportunities in the Show via the PEN don’t eliminate any chance of starting in the long term.

[Blyleven2011]

Twins claimed Kowar from Mariners and signed a minor league contract with Salazar  , both pitchers  ...

I roster is going to look different for spring training  , big Tom is trying to go big or Mrs Tom  might not let him come home ...

Nothing significant added today but  maybe our guru pitching coaches can tweak something for some value ...

Cody lawyerson was bumped from his current 40 man roster spot with a west coast team ...

[gman]

I think the Twins will have to be at the top of their game to finish 4th in the division. This roster won 't be winning many games next October. I would prefer that they bring along some of those pitchers not making the rotation as bullpen pieces so they can learn which of their pitches work at the major league level. There can be a place where they bring the 13 best pitchers to the majors at the end of March. Bullpen pitchers don't have to be restricted to 1 inning.

[jorgenswest]

Is it possible the new leadership will not be so fixed in their thinking about whether pitcher is a reliever or a starter? Some teams would take the best 12 arms. If Abel and  Bradley have a better chance of getting batters out than Topa or Orza or Adams shouldn’t they be in the bullpen? The same would go in considering Prielipp and Funderburk.

Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that they will never return to starter? In the last two all star games there were at least 13 starters that earlier in their careers had at least one season where they were relievers. They include Tyler Glasnow, Reynaldo Lopez, Chris Sale, Chris Sanchez, Ranger Saurez, Garrett Crochet, Clay Holmes, Tanner Houck, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta. Putting any of the Twin young arms in the major league pen is not going to fix them in that role for their careers.

Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that the Twins won’t have a 6th starter  ready when someone gets injured? There are teams that will have their 6th starter in the bullpen. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals transitioned twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the World Champion Blue Jays. 

Even if the Twins stash a 6th starter in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need. A few years ago the Twins had Ober in the 6th spot in AAA. There was a need for a 6th starter but they couldn’t bring up Ober as had pitched too recently so they went with Varland.

Someone convince me the Twins should send down Abel or Matthews to AAA even though they have better arms than some in their major league pen. It can’t be that it will keep them from being a starter in the future. It can’t be that they won’t be able to transition to a starter in season. Why send the, down? I know that is what Falvey would do. He’s gone. Why should the current leadership send them down?

[weitz41]

I like our catching and starting pitching. Too bad best parts of that will be elsewhere on August 4th.

The OF is frustrating to look at. I'm a big Buxton fan...BUT 2 100+ game seasons in a row is about as likely as two winning Powerball tickets in a row. After that we have guys who can't hit or turn into pumpkins if a lefty is one the mound.

No need to dig into the BP as long as Tom Pohlad wants to get off this payroll conversation...

Should be an interesting 2nd half. Hopefully I've heard of 50% of the players on the team.

[DarrenPS]

55 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Festa will be 26 this year - Prielipp will be 25 this year - Matthews will be 26 this year.

Festa & Prielipp have had injury issues and could use further inning monitoring in 2026. Much easier to control innings AND utilize benefit of the guy’s talents from the PEN, IMO.

Matthews could potentially thrive in cutting back his repertoire to 2-3 pitches and shifting to a high leverage role in the PEN.

Raya will be 23 and has more time.

Opportunities in the Show via the PEN don’t eliminate any chance of starting in the long term.

Did I mention any of them in my post? No, I talked about the 23 year olds only.

I am a strong supporter of Festa to the pen. Zebby I want to get another shot as a starter, the stuff isn't matching results so give him one last chance. Prielipp I am 50/50 on but if you can keep him a start (because he keeps adding new pitches, rumor is he's adding a 5th), and if you are confident about the elbow, I would try to keep him starting as long as possible. If he ends up a reliever to stay healthy like Festa I understand

[DarrenPS]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They will contribute 0 WAR pitching in St. Paul.

If they don't have the talent to become a decent reliever, then they'll never be able to hack it as more than a journeyman 5th starter. Those pitchers are a freely available on waivers.

How many years do you want Marco Raya to suck as a starter before they try him as a reliever? Personally, I think three lousy seasons is enough.

Nolan McLean didnt get called up until he was 24 as a top prospect, Hunter Barco until he was 25, every prospect is different and giving up on him at 23 is a flaw of Twins fans

It should have nothing to do with "off years" in your eyes, 23 is still young for baseball prospect status

[DarrenPS]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

That's exactly Festa. 25 games with an ERA over 5. Turns 26 in 2026. Can't stay healthy enough to pitch a full season in the rotation.

Matthews has 25 starts with an ERA of 5.92. Also turns 26 in 2026. He's on a short leash.

Bailey Ober was bad last season in the rotation and is turning 30. If his fastball doesn't come back, they should expect the same performance as last season.

Raya's not going to get a chance to fail as a starter in the big leagues because he can't hack it in the AAA rotation. He hasn't pitched well enough to earn a promotion since A-ball.

How much longer do these guys need to fail before the Twins are allowed to move them to the bullpen? How many more seasons?

Read entire comments before commenting on them

[howeda7]

I'd have to think they will still add a couple of the RH relievers that are left. I'd go for Koepech and Scott Barlow. Also, if we're really going with Kriedler as utility, I'd rather bring Kyle Farmer back or give Arcia a shot. I'd like to see LF be a true competition and not just given to Roden. I think Gonzalez is far enough along to get a shot.

[sweetmusicviola16]

My vote is for Abel to be in the rotation with Matthews waiting in the wings at AAA. Bradley to the pen, he's had enough chance at failing as a starter. See how the pen works for him. Festa if he's ready to start the season goes to the pen. Whether that means he makes OD at ML or starts in AAA is up to how he shows up in ST. Just like Bradley he's had the shot as a starter. Guys like Raya and Morris haven't even shown they can succeed at AAA let alone ML. Festa has at least done the job in AAA well enough to warrant a BP tryout. I also don't see Prielipp as being ML ready. He's proven nothing yet, but I'd keep him as a starter for now. But my candidates for a transition as of now are only Festa and Bradley. All this could change if some trades happen.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I get the sense that Bell and Caratini both could be ahead of Clemens on the 1b depth chart right? I'd be open to being wrong, but it's hard to see a true role for him that makes sense. This roster is so confusing still.

Not a Clemens fan, but why would anyone be trying to wedge the backup catcher into the lineup?

Let him catch twice a week.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope this is right and Outman doesn't get a job on scholarship simply because he's out of options. Maybe the fact that Falvey is gone will increase that likelihood? But I'm still desperately afraid we're going to get stuck with him as the supposed 4th OF regardless of how he performs in spring training and they'll keep chasing value on him even if he sucks at the plate when the season starts like he has the past 2 years. (and with his defense having slipped, he's even less attractive) Twins have historically not been good about dealing with the sunk cost fallacy, and while Outman on or off the roster isn't likely to be determinative of the season (that's going to be much more about whether Wallner & Lewis bounce back, Keaschall is who who hope he is, Buxton stays healthy, etc) not keeping Outman just to avoid losing control over an asset (especially when it ain't much of an asset to begin with) would be a good sign in a change of administration.

Is Roden the answer? I don't know, but he's got little left to prove in AAA. I'd much rather find out now (with Jenkins and Rodriguez and Gonzalez all hopefully pushing for a shot by their performance, not just their tools) than keep wasting time on Outman.

The bullpen needs work. It just does. While I do think you can (and should) build bullpens on the cheap, using internal resources and converted starters, it will take some time and you need a couple of pillars. I wouldn't object to seeing Festa slide to the 'pen? He could be a weapon there and after the TOS (which still scares me no matter how many times they say "no, it's the good kind!") it might be a better spot for him. The Slim Reaper as an eventual closer? I'm interested.

I thought Bradley was out of options? Love to be wrong, but I think he is.

Not in love with Outman either. …. Don’t really see much more in Roden than in Kiersey - both can play OF, both can run, and both hit at AAA. St. Paul isn’t the SHOW.

Outman, in years 2 & 3, is the same mediocre performer as Eddie Julien……I think, with better physical talent. There were a number of people at TD that held out hope that the organization would give Eddie an opportunity. They didn’t and that makes me happy………with Outman, I’m more neutral. Either way, if he starts the season on the 26 man, he can be DFA’d with a simple stroke of the pen or by pressing SEND on the keyboard. If he’s on the roster, he has NO extended runway!

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it possible the new leadership will not be so fixed in their thinking about whether pitcher is a reliever or a starter? Some teams would take the best 12 arms. If Abel and  Bradley have a better chance of getting batters out than Topa or Orza or Adams shouldn’t they be in the bullpen? The same would go in considering Prielipp and Funderburk.

Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that they will never return to starter? In the last two all star games there were at least 13 starters that earlier in their careers had at least one season where they were relievers. They include Tyler Glasnow, Reynaldo Lopez, Chris Sale, Chris Sanchez, Ranger Saurez, Garrett Crochet, Clay Holmes, Tanner Houck, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta. Putting any of the Twin young arms in the major league pen is not going to fix them in that role for their careers.

Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that the Twins won’t have a 6th starter  ready when someone gets injured? There are teams that will have their 6th starter in the bullpen. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals transitioned twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the World Champion Blue Jays. 

Even if the Twins stash a 6th starter in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need. A few years ago the Twins had Ober in the 6th spot in AAA. There was a need for a 6th starter but they couldn’t bring up Ober as had pitched too recently so they went with Varland.

Someone convince me the Twins should send down Abel or Matthews to AAA even though they have better arms than some in their major league pen. It can’t be that it will keep them from being a starter in the future. It can’t be that they won’t be able to transition to a starter in season. Why send the, down? I know that is what Falvey would do. He’s gone. Why should the current leadership send them down?

Exactamundo and with your usual stellar research to back it all up! 

Nothing has to be permanent. You have examples of this in your post and there is more where that came from. 

Can you hang zeroes? How many can you hang?

Put the best thirteen guys on the roster. The best 13 at getting MLB batters out.   

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Well, when you lump Bailey Ober in there it seems like you're saying you get one shot and then it's off to the bullpen for you! Why would Bailey Ober be relevant to this discussion?

The Twins gave Ober 27 starts and 146 innings last year. His fastball is down and so is his effectiveness. He's not cutting it in the rotation. At some point you move ineffective pitchers out of the rotation and into the bullpen.

[jorgenswest]

I wondered if Shelton had any experience with using young starters in the bullpen. In Shelton’s last full season Luis Ortiz had a season I can envision among the Twins hopeful starter. Ortiz began the season in the bullpen. In June they needed a starter. In his first three games after relieving he pitched innings 2-6. In his next games he completed 6 innings as the starter and stayed in the rotation. He ended with a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 3.49 ERA as a reliever though that is a little deceiving because he had a bad outing in one of his three bulk inning outings. Ortiz was 25 with a similar prospect pedigree to several of the Twins fighting for a starting spot. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, DarrenPS said:

Nolan McLean didnt get called up until he was 24 as a top prospect, Hunter Barco until he was 25, every prospect is different and giving up on him at 23 is a flaw of Twins fans

It should have nothing to do with "off years" in your eyes, 23 is still young for baseball prospect status

Nolan McLean has been really good in the minors and Marco Raya has been lousy for three consecutive seasons. They have nothing in common. Prospect status doesn't come just from age.

How many lousy seasons in a row does Marco Raya need to have before it's okay to move him to the bullpen? Four or five? Should they wait until 2028 when he's out of options and they're forced to put him on the 26-man roster to try him as a reliever?

[Rosterman]

Any thought of Ober becoming a relief pitcher?

St. Paul will have a solid rotation and a great outfield.

There are at least six players mentioned above that have no business being on the 40-man roster, let alone considered for jobs in the majors. All could've been replaced with better players at a modest cost. 

So few minor league free agents as of today. Will be interesting to see how the Saints fill out from the Wichita roster and so on.

Raya and Prielipp need to egt innings, but also looked at mainly in the relief role. I would treat Prielipp as thei did Duran. If he shines in spring training, let him join the majors.

I hope Lewis at St. Paul can make it. Would also prefer bullpen.

 

[JD-TWINS]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not a Clemens fan, but why would anyone be trying to wedge the backup catcher into the lineup?

Let him catch twice a week.

Because Caratini is a switch hitter that is a better hitter than Clemens. Jackson may be in the 26 man to allow Caratini to DH as well as Jeffers. Clemens is really a reach as the 13th guy on a decent club.

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins gave Ober 27 starts and 146 innings last year. His fastball is down and so is his effectiveness. He's not cutting it in the rotation. At some point you move ineffective pitchers out of the rotation and into the bullpen.

After 2 successful seasons as a quality starting pitcher, you're dumping Ober into the bullpen after 1 down year where he battled injuries? No more chances, eh? One down season and you're done? Yikes.

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not in love with Outman either. …. Don’t really see much more in Roden than in Kiersey - both can play OF, both can run, and both hit at AAA. St. Paul isn’t the SHOW.

Roden hit about 150 points of OPS higher than Keirsey in AAA (200 points of OPS higher in MLB) and is three years younger.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

After 2 successful seasons as a quality starting pitcher, you're dumping Ober into the bullpen after 1 down year where he battled injuries? No more chances, eh? One down season and you're done? Yikes.

Getting old is tough in MLB. The radar gun will tell you all you need to know about whether Ober can bounce back in the rotation this year.

[JD-TWINS]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins gave Ober 27 starts and 146 innings last year. His fastball is down and so is his effectiveness. He's not cutting it in the rotation. At some point you move ineffective pitchers out of the rotation and into the bullpen.

His BA against with runners on base was like .368. To me, it seems pretty obvious he had a physical problem. When you pitch just fine out of the Windup and can’t get guys out from the Stretch, it’s physical.  If the same guy is throwing 91.5 or 89 mph and he gets guys out from the Windup routinely. The loss in velocity isn’t good but something physical is causing the drop off. If that gets fixed, whatever “that” is, I’m not worried about Ober going out and giving the Team a real chance in 4 of every 5 starts.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Exactamundo and with your usual stellar research to back it all up! 

Nothing has to be permanent. You have examples of this in your post and there is more where that came from. 

Can you hang zeroes? How many can you hang?

Put the best thirteen guys on the roster. The best 13 at getting MLB batters out.   

 

Put the best 26 players on the roster going north  , how many years in a row have they kept someone that didn't have a good spring and no options left and DFA other players and lost them to a waiver claim  ...

They got to do better and hopefully they will without falvey and Rocco playing their favorites  ...