Joe Ryan Is Failing to Answer His Biggest Question

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

 

For a long stretch this year, Joe Ryan looked like everything the Twins hoped he could be: swing-and-miss stuff, elite control, and a bona fide frontline starter. His surface numbers back that up with elite peripherals (K/9, BB/9, FIP) and counting stats that put him among the American League’s better arms. But the storyline that’s defined his career more than the strikeouts is durability. That thread keeps showing up, even in a season where he finally got the All-Star nod.

This isn't the first season where Ryan's durability has been questioned. In 2023, the Twins were unsure of how to use Ryan and Bailey Ober in their postseason rotation. The club knew that Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray would be in the top two spots. When it came to the club’s first game versus Houston, the reins were turned over to Bailey Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan got the start in Game 4, which became the decisive game. However, Minnesota only let him pitch two innings (1 ER on two hits) and turned it over to the bullpen. 

Last season, the Twins were in the hunt for the playoffs in the second half with 90% playoff odds during August. Ryan suffered a season-ending shoulder strain on August 7, 2024 after he exited a start at Wrigley Field. He didn’t require surgery but his season was over. The team had an epic collapse down the stretch and it’s easy to wonder “what if” Ryan had been healthy. Could he have helped the club avoid their collapse?

Why This Matters
The Twins know on paper that Ryan is a top-of-the-rotation arm. However, they have tougher decisions to make about committing future payroll and roster construction to a pitcher whose calendar has an asterisk: “great, if he gets through the back half.” The Twins know what they’re getting when he’s right with high-leverage innings and a starter who can give the bullpen breathing room. But they also know what they get when the wear shows up: short starts, extra bullpen usage, and the subtle collapse of a rotation plan in September. It came to life with a shoulder strain that ended his 2024 season and his end to 2025 looks, uncomfortably, like deja vu.

If the Twins decide to retain Ryan and build their 2026 plan around him, it may be time to reevaluate his usage. That means:

1. Aggressive workload management: An innings cap or series-of-starts cap in the early season, with a ramp tailored to his history. Let the calendar, not panic, dictate his place in September.
2. Rest and recovery emphasis: Deeper in-season monitoring, scheduled extra days between starts if metrics trend poorly, start having rest conversations before anything becomes a bigger problem.
3. Rotation construction that protects him: Continue to build the organization's pitching pipeline. If the back end of the rotation is unreliable, Ryan’s failures cascade. A more conservative rotation means the Twins can accept the occasional two-inning outing without turning September into a bullpen apocalypse.

Retaining him this way buys upside: the Twins still have an ace when he’s right, but you try to blunt the damage when he’s not. That’s a reasonable strategy if the Twins aren’t convinced the market will pay top value for him in a trade. And right now, the market is at least whispering about interest. He’s been listed among the offseason’s top trade candidates, which underscores how other clubs value his present performance despite the worry about the back half of seasons.

The alternative is blunt and transactional: the Twins could sell high on a pitcher who’s shown All-Star level production and still has two years of control left. Moving him would solve the durability headache by making it someone else’s problem, and it would accelerate a rebuild or restock the farm system with controllable talent. Teams in win-now mode often overpay for present performance. If other front offices believe Ryan is a four-plus WAR difference-maker when healthy, the return could be significant.

That said, trade markets price risk. Other teams aren’t blind to the shoulder history or the second-half fade. Any package the Twins get will be discounted by how much prospective buyers think Ryan might bow out late in the season. And if the Twins’ front office is convinced they can better manage Ryan and extract more value than a trade return, they’ll keep him. This summer’s roster shakeups showed the Twins were willing to move many pieces but retained Ryan as part of the core construction at that time, which tells you how they were already sizing his value versus trade capital.

All the debate, projections, and contract math come down to one simple thing: what happens when Ryan goes through a full spring, a regular season, and into September without the physical hiccups he’s shown before? That’s the proof investors (the front office or trade suitors) want to see.

If the Twins keep him and 2026 shows those things, they’ve got a frontline starter they can build around, and the “what-if” of 2025 fades into a memory. There’s also a chance that Ryan again wears down, or an injury pops up. Then the narrative flips: his trade value tanks, his arbitration trajectory becomes a liability, and the Twins are left balancing lost wins with future payroll commitments.

Ryan’s 2025 told two truths at once: he’s legitimately good, and he’s still a gamble. For the Twins, keeping him is a bet that smarter load management and surrounding pieces can turn upside into reliability. Trading him is a bet the market will overvalue current performance and spare the Twins a long, expensive experiment.

Which gamble is smarter? That depends on how patient Minnesota wants to be, and how many heartbreaks they’re willing to endure before Ryan finally, fully answers the simple question he’s failed to solve so far. 

Can Ryan ever answer his biggest question? Will the Twins trade him this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

 

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[jimmiexx]

Of course Ryan will get hurt again. He is not an outlier or injury prone. Everyone is getting hurt. Look at the Dodgers pitchers injuries.These days durability isn't as important as pitching as hard as you can and getting hard spin rates. Hopefully teams will find ways to get their aces pitching 200 innings again. 

[thelanges5]

I love the Joe Ryan experience, but can he pitch well in August and September? Injury, fatigue, illness, he’s mad at the front office. It all adds up to the same thing. If he is mad at the front office and wants out, his performance is not helping his arbitration or making him more attractive to other teams.

[NYCTK]

Can we stop talking about the Twins pitching pipeline? It's nothing but Twins propaganda at this point. 9 years in and their pitching development can't be described as anything other than mediocre. 

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Can we stop talking about the Twins pitching pipeline? It's nothing but Twins propaganda at this point. 9 years in and their pitching development can't be described as anything other than mediocre. 

And that was Falway's portfolio in Cleve that was hyped so strongly when his United Moving van showed up in the TC.

Pitching development. My foot.

[old nurse]

Here is to hoping that Boston makes it to at least the ALCS before losing out of the playoffs. A desparate team is more likely to pay more than others. 

[Road trip]

Eh...I'm not convinced there is a "build around" option.  I suspect the options are:

1. Trade Ryan in the offseason

2. Trade Ryan right before that August 1, 2026 trade deadline.

Oh...and you can replace the name "Ryan" with any other non-Buxton Twin that is scheduled to earn an arbitration-eligible salary in 2026.  It just seems unlikely that any of the current core pieces will still be around when the Twins next try to build a contender.  There is no realistic path to contention next year.

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan
Career = 3.80/3.83/3.82 for ERA/FIP/xFIP
1st Half 2025 = 2.72/3.26/3.70
2nd Half 2025 = 4.92/4.77/3.84
All of 2025 = 3.47/3.78/3.75

First half, good luck with FB:HR rate + good luck with solo shot home runs.
Second half, bad luck with FB:HR rate + normal luck with base runners on when home runs happened.

[TwinsDr2021]

Wait the Twins aren't extending him? Isn't that what most have been calling for?

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Can we stop talking about the Twins pitching pipeline? It's nothing but Twins propaganda at this point. 9 years in and their pitching development can't be described as anything other than mediocre. 

There most certainly is a pitching pipeline.  It just isn't very good.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Joe Ryan
Career = 3.80/3.83/3.82 for ERA/FIP/xFIP
1st Half 2025 = 2.72/3.26/3.70
2nd Half 2025 = 4.92/4.77/3.84
All of 2025 = 3.47/3.78/3.75

First half, good luck with FB:HR rate + good luck with solo shot home runs.
Second half, bad luck with FB:HR rate + normal luck with base runners on when home runs happened.

Good pull. 3.70 xFIP in the 1st vs 3.84 in the 2nd. He's actually pitched pretty consistently. He is not an ace, never has been, but is a very consistent #2. 

If a team wants to trade for him as an ace, the Twins would be foolish to hang up the phone. 

[rv78]

He's not an Ace. He's not consistant. He's not durable. Yet, they have no one that can replace him or his production. Kinda sounds like Buxton 2.0. And then some fans wonder why this team continually fails to live up to expectations. When the main players on your team can't be counted on for an entire season you're never going to make significant noise come playoff time, if you even get there. The problem with this team since Falvine took over is that they continually bank on what ifs and could have beens instead of solid everyday players that are better than average. Add in the young players they drafted that don't perform at the major leagues beyond a subpar level and their insight into evaluating talent comes into question as well. We have gone beyond the point where their baseball philosophy, mentality and ability to run a major league team has proven to be a failure. Since they aren't being held accountable, all we can do is stand back, watch, and laugh.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan surely wants an opportunity to win. He seems to be hyper competitive. It is really hard for a guy like that the get pumped up to pitch for a 90 loss team. 

The Twins are going to struggle to get back to anything relevant in the next couple of years. If the Twins kept Ryan he is a free agent after the 2027 season. Either sooner or later he is gone and his presence does not mean the Twins will reach a .500 record. In other words ... he gone.

Thus, the best result possible is that several teams are super interested in acquiring Joe Ryan this offseason and the Twins maximize the return for him. I would even add a player or two for the best return or package of players. Looking around baseball at the contending teams it is obvious that a starting pitcher like Joe Ryan should be in huge demand.

Ryan can answer whatever questions need to be answered with his next club. 

[mikelink45]

At this point we are all so frustrated that you need to give us time to flush the 2025 season out of our minds (a little bit) before putting these questions forward.  When it comes to Twins decisions does it matter what the fans think?

[Doc Lenz]

59 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

At this point we are all so frustrated that you need to give us time to flush the 2025 season out of our minds (a little bit) before putting these questions forward.  When it comes to Twins decisions does it matter what the fans think?

Why should it matter what we think? We aren’t involved in the decision making.

[Glorybound]

11 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wait the Twins aren't extending him? Isn't that what most have been calling for?

It would take an extraordinary over pay for Ryan to sign an extension with the Twins. 

[Whitey333]

Twins may just as well trade him this coming off season.  Get what you can. Lopez too with his 21 million salary.  Ryan is good but struggled end of season.  180 innings and hes tired?  Oh my.  I long for the years where starting pitchers pitched.  It was normal to have pitchers work 250 innings per year.  Many times over 300 innings.  Most of today's pitchers are wimpy and pitch 5 or 6 innings and they think they've done well.  Managers nit letting them stay in the game much longer as they bow to the great analytics.  Oh my.

[MinnInPa]

14 hours ago, rv78 said:

He's not an Ace. He's not consistant. He's not durable. Yet, they have no one that can replace him or his production. Kinda sounds like Buxton 2.0. And then some fans wonder why this team continually fails to live up to expectations. When the main players on your team can't be counted on for an entire season you're never going to make significant noise come playoff time, if you even get there. The problem with this team since Falvine took over is that they continually bank on what ifs and could have beens instead of solid everyday players that are better than average. Add in the young players they drafted that don't perform at the major leagues beyond a subpar level and their insight into evaluating talent comes into question as well. We have gone beyond the point where their baseball philosophy, mentality and ability to run a major league team has proven to be a failure. Since they aren't being held accountable, all we can do is stand back, watch, and laugh.

true. our so called STARS.. Buxton, Correa(gone), Lopez, Ryan ..really are not.. They are not clutch players that can put the team on their back and be counted on to perform at a high level ..always. i'd luv to see a stat on Buxton in high pressure situations.. RISP , 2 on no out, etc,  i'm bettn its not to good

[mluebker]

He’s a keeper, in my book. But how about along with workload management, rest and recovery, and rotation construction, they add aggressive strength and flexibility training to build up some endurance and resilience? 

[ashbury]

On 9/24/2025 at 5:42 AM, MinnInPa said:

i'd luv to see a stat on Buxton in high pressure situations.. RISP , 2 on no out, etc,  i'm bettn its not to good

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2025&t=b#all_bases

He batted .313 with RISP in 2025

[RpR]

On 9/23/2025 at 7:15 PM, Doc Lenz said:

Why should it matter what we think? We aren’t involved in the decision making.

BRAVO!

[MinnInPa]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2025&t=b#all_bases

He batted .313 with RISP in 2025

thanks..     it just seems he K's a lot in rally time situations