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Posted
Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Admittedly, I was excited about Minnesota electing to undertake a massive roster reconstruction at the 2025 MLB trade deadline, parting ways with 11 players from its 26-man roster. Yes, it would have been nice to watch the Carlos Correa-led collective demonstrate resiliency, pick themselves up by their bootstraps, and triumphantly return to the postseason after enduring a cataclysmic collapse late last season, but the club losing four straight series out of the All-Star signaled they were, in fact, prepared to go gentle into that good night. Change was in order.

Many assumed that the team's fire sale at the deadline was evidence that a sale was near. Recent comments from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and a report from Front Office Sports reinforced a sense of confidence and optimism that the club would pass into the hands of a different billionaire or three. Unfortunately, instead, the family announced on Wednesday that they will remain principal owners, albeit with new limited partners coming aboard. So it goes.

Thus, the Twins front office will be forced to continue operating under significant spending restrictions, with major implications for this upcoming offseason. As of right now, Minnesota has $48 million in committed salaries next season: Byron Buxton and Pablo López's contracts ($38 million) and $10 million owed to Correa. Including expected arbitration payouts, FanGraphs projects Minnesota's 2025 Opening Day payroll to be $66.8 million, which would be a $67.2 million decrease from its 2024 Opening Day payroll, which settled around $134 million.

Despite how bleak times are in Twins Territory, there is reason to believe the Pohlad family (and their new partners-slash-benefactors) will be charitable enough to allow the front office to spend roughly $30-40 million, increasing the club's payroll to roughly $100-110 million. That's a fairly negative outlook; it would still constitute a $20-30 million decrease from this season. Still, if Minnesota were to allocate that much money toward the club's payroll, it would be operating under a payroll similar to the thriving Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee's 2025 payroll stands at $121 million. Like Minnesota, however, the Brewers are expected to have a significant amount of money come off the books this fall. FanGraphs expects Milwaukee's payroll to decrease to $60.4 million at the end of the season, placing them in a similar ballpark to Minnesota. (Importantly, these figures don't account for arbitration awards; both the Twins and the Brewers will almost certainly spend much more than their current projections, even if they don't make noteworthy forays into free agency.) Like Minnesota, Milwaukee is expected to raise its payroll back to the $115-120 million range. However, what separates Milwaukee from Minnesota is that the Brewers have been operating under these constraints for a significant amount of time, while recently blossoming into the platonic ideal of how a small-market team should construct its major-league roster (and farm system) to become sustainably successful.

Under Derek Falvey, Minnesota already operates like Milwaukee in notable ways. For example, Minnesota, like Milwaukee, has grown a knack for drafting college pitchers from small schools and adding more velocity to their arsenal to make everything pop. The two organizations also similarly spread their money around in Latin America, rather than concentrating their bonus money on individuals perceived as the top prospects in each year's class. Also, the two clubs value depth in the high minors and at the major-league level. However, there are key differences between the two clubs that Minnesota needs to shore up if it wants to become a sustainable small-market winner in the same vein as Milwaukee.

What separates Milwaukee from Minnesota (or Matt Arnold from Derek Falvey) is Milwaukee's nimble roster-building and willingness to transact often. A primary factor that led to Minnesota's descent after its magical 2023 run was Falvey's unwillingness to shake up the roster's core. Instead of parting ways with players like Max Kepler, Chris Paddack, and others at opportune times, Twins decision-makers elected to hold on to them, creating a sense of stagnancy within the club and restricting its ability to combat mediocrity.

On the other hand, the contemporary, successful iteration of Milwaukee, led by Arnold (and formerly David Stearns), has been exceptionally active in recent seasons, trading away star players nearing free agency—like Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams—for hefty packages. Indirectly, the team got William Contreras by trading Hader. Directly, they acquired the left side of their infield (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) in trades that gave up Burnes and Williams, and those deals also yielded pitching depth and an extra draft pick.

In prior seasons, Falvey demonstrated an unwillingness to make momentous transactions like Stearns or Arnold do. Yet, Minnesota's organization-altering deadline indicates that they (be it Falvey himself or Jeremy Zoll, the new nominal general manager) have become willing to make a meaningful shift in roster construction approach that more closely resonates with Milwaukee.

If Minnesota continues to execute transactions similarly, star players like López (who possesses an expensive contract) and Ryan Jeffers (who will be a free agent after next season) could also be moved in the offseason. Trading López and Jeffers are moves Milwaukee decision-makers would seemingly make. However, if Minnesota were to mirror Milwaukee's mode of operation, it likely wouldn't part ways with Ryan, given that he's relatively inexpensive and an exceptionally talented pitcher. 

Beyond a willingness to make high-impact transactions, Minnesota should also become more like Milwaukee in its player development program. A driving factor in Milwaukee's success is its ability to field a roster filled with elite defensive players who make exceptional swing decisions at the plate. In recent seasons, Minnesota has existed on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Instead of fielding players like Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, or Isaac Collins, Minnesota has provided extended opportunities to players like Trevor Larnach, Ty France, and Edouard Julien.

Still, given the recent development of players like Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin, there is reason to believe Minnesota has already begun mimicking Milwaukee's approach to roster-building. Also, Minnesota has developed one of the more admirable internal pitching development programs in baseball, meaning the club should be able to continue developing cost-controlled, above-average starting pitching and reliever talent, like Milwaukee.

Minnesota possesses the young, cost-controlled talent necessary to take the steps toward creating a major-league club that could win again in the near future. Twins decision-makers need to become more willing to make consequential transactions, while placing more emphasis on acquiring and developing good defensive players with exceptional plate discipline and contact skills. However, given the recent overhaul the front office engaged in during the deadline and prioritization of providing players like Keaschall, Martin, and Alan Roden extended opportunities, there is reason to believe the transition into being more like Milwaukee has already begun.


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Posted

I think one of the main thing to take from the trades mentioned is they were proven guys that were about to get expensive and they got rid of 2 very good pen guys and a very good to great starter.  Our FO made a trade of a few very good pen guys, one with a lot of control still, and fans are super upset.  If we trade Ryan or Lopez this offseason fans will be more upset.  

However, what Brew Crew this year, and Rays in the past have shown is not investing big in single players can actually help if you can flip those guys for more prospects that you hope a few will work out and raise the floor of our team.  

For example, we are hoping huge things on Jenkins right now, but he could become not very good, we see it happen all the time for top prospects.  If we have no other options down the road we get a huge set back.  Fans were upset when we kept drafting SS, well you need plenty of options. 

I think the Twins should adopt more of the type of strategy from the Brew Crew too, Have guys that can get on base, run the bases, and not just look to go yard 1-9. 

Posted

How have the Brewers done in the playoffs? Did trading off elite pieces prevent them from winning playoff series? Should they have made bigger moves at the deadline? Since they last won a playoff series in 2018 I think they have gone 2-10 in their last 5 seasons in the playoffs. This year looks different but they look pretty similar to the Twins of the 2000s.

Posted

Here’s another big difference between the two organizations: the Brewers simply get more production out of their players.  They take decent minor league talent and turn them into productive major leaguers.  They play a type of baseball consistent with their talents.  They are a fun and exciting team.    The Twins under Rocco are none of these things - in fact, the polar opposite.  

Posted

Nice article, Cody.

Milwaukee has also had a significant edge in baserunning. By Fangraphs, MKE baserunners have gained about 8 wins on the Twins in just the last three years. Overall, they have produced players who are more athletic.

I agree that the Twins FO seem to now be following that path. Jenkins, Culpepper, DeBarge, Houston and Keaschall were all taken in early rounds. Winokur and Young were big swings at athleticism. Same holds true on the pitching side, with Hill, Soto and Quick acquired through the draft, and Bradley and Abel by trade.  

I like the change in direction.

Posted

They have leaned so heavily into the "team that hits the most home runs wins playoff games" philosophy that they built a team that doesn't make the playoffs.  I would much rather watch a team steal bases, pressure the defense, defend well themselves, and advance runners than wait for walks and home runs.  If you squint hard enough, you can see the beginnings of a team like that, so (hoping against hope) that is part of the plan.

Posted
33 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How have the Brewers done in the playoffs? Did trading off elite pieces prevent them from winning playoff series? Should they have made bigger moves at the deadline? Since they last won a playoff series in 2018 I think they have gone 2-10 in their last 5 seasons in the playoffs. This year looks different but they look pretty similar to the Twins of the 2000s.

Very true, but playoff success is fickle and prone to small sample sizes.

IMO....a front office/team should aim to put themselves in a good position and hope the Gods of Random Outcomes favor them for a few weeks.  That's really the best you can hope for.  (Especially if you can't afford to be the Dodgers)

Posted

I agree with the idea that the Twins need to be more willing and able to make roster moves/changes more frequently like Milwaukee does and move guys on expiring deals, but until the Brewers make any noise at all in the playoffs they're neither mighty nor do I care for the Twins to follow them as some sort of great road map of success. They're on fire this year and I hope they win the World Series, but until they actually do something in the playoffs the Brewers aren't a team I'm eager for the Twins to emulate.

Posted
54 minutes ago, Trov said:

they got rid of 2 very good pen guys and a very good to great starter

I thought they traded Paddack and his almost 5 ERA who was nothing more than a serviceable number 4 pitcher at best.  Was there another trade I missed.

Posted

Sorry, but the Brewers aren't winning because they are nimble with their roster, they're winning despite being nimble with their roster:

"On the other hand, the contemporary, successful iteration of Milwaukee, led by Arnold (and formerly David Stearns), has been exceptionally active in recent seasons, trading away star players nearing free agency—like Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams—for hefty packages. Indirectly, the team got William Contreras by trading Hader. Directly, they acquired the left side of their infield (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) in trades that gave up Burnes and Williams, and those deals also yielded pitching depth and an extra draft pick."

They traded away Hader, Burnes and Williams and are winning because they flipped them for Durbin and Ortiz? Durbin and Ortiz were prize prospects, but they aren't good pro ball players; at least not at this time. This is not why the Brewers are winning.

Posted
6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but the Brewers aren't winning because they are nimble with their roster, they're winning despite being nimble with their roster:

"On the other hand, the contemporary, successful iteration of Milwaukee, led by Arnold (and formerly David Stearns), has been exceptionally active in recent seasons, trading away star players nearing free agency—like Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams—for hefty packages. Indirectly, the team got William Contreras by trading Hader. Directly, they acquired the left side of their infield (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) in trades that gave up Burnes and Williams, and those deals also yielded pitching depth and an extra draft pick."

They traded away Hader, Burnes and Williams and are winning because they flipped them for Durbin and Ortiz? Durbin and Ortiz were prize prospects, but they aren't good pro ball players; at least not at this time. This is not why the Brewers are winning.

I mean they are winning because they don't keep developing replacement level guys with top five picks.....

Posted
8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Durbin and Ortiz were prize prospects, but they aren't good pro ball players; at least not at this time. This is not why the Brewers are winning.

Everything is relative but saying they're not good pro ball players is a bit ridiculous. 

Those two players have about 6 WAR combined over the last couple seasons. Perfectly fine starters and role players on a good team. 

Are they any better with the bat than Julien or Miranda? Not drastically so, but they're athletes and able to provide value defensively and on the basepaths. 

This is why they're the best team in the league and the Twins are the Twins. 

Posted

"Under Derek Falvey, Minnesota already operates like Milwaukee in notable ways. For example, Minnesota, like Milwaukee, has grown a knack for drafting college pitchers from small schools and adding more velocity to their arsenal to make everything pop"

Yeah, except that instead of turning those pitchers into burned out starters turned middle relievers or flamed out from injuries, they will occasionally develop actual starting pitchers. And not just starting level pitching, legit ace starters which we haven't seen in way too long.

Posted

Great defense and speed are two things Milwaukee is doing to win. The Twins have been the slowest team in baseball. We seem a little bit faster right now, after the trades. But our defense now looks like the worst in baseball. 

Posted
3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Everything is relative but saying they're not good pro ball players is a bit ridiculous. 

Those two players have about 6 WAR combined over the last couple seasons. Perfectly fine starters and role players on a good team. 

Are they any better with the bat than Julien or Miranda? Not drastically so, but they're athletes and able to provide value defensively and on the basepaths. 

This is why they're the best team in the league and the Twins are the Twins. 

They are the 8 and 9 hitters and far and away the worst regulars on the team.

Playing good baseball is contagious. Playing good baseball leads to winning and winning breads enthusiasm. Enthusiasm leads to more winning. It's a great cycle when you get into it like the early century Twins and the Rays from a few years ago. Everybody wants to emulate you but no one can really put a finger on what you're doing to win. Sure, when you're a smaller market, replacing your star players for younger star players will help the cycle, but that's not what the Brewers have done at this point, and it hardly ever happens because trading star players is a win for the team buying the star player just about every time. Even if you like their defense, the Brewers downgraded by removing those players, therefore it's not the reason for their winning.

Posted
23 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but the Brewers aren't winning because they are nimble with their roster, they're winning despite being nimble with their roster:

"On the other hand, the contemporary, successful iteration of Milwaukee, led by Arnold (and formerly David Stearns), has been exceptionally active in recent seasons, trading away star players nearing free agency—like Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams—for hefty packages. Indirectly, the team got William Contreras by trading Hader. Directly, they acquired the left side of their infield (Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz) in trades that gave up Burnes and Williams, and those deals also yielded pitching depth and an extra draft pick."

They traded away Hader, Burnes and Williams and are winning because they flipped them for Durbin and Ortiz? Durbin and Ortiz were prize prospects, but they aren't good pro ball players; at least not at this time. This is not why the Brewers are winning.

Well...you did leave Contreras off that list and that would seem to be a fairly large omission.  

Ortiz and Durbin may not be gamebreakers but they occupy starting positions on the team as at least positive WAR players and they received them for guys they otherwise wouldn't have on the roster.  Something is better than nothing.

Wasn't that the main issue so often with good Twins teams in the recent past?  It wasn't that they didn't have the star power or the elite players, but the dregs of their roster always held them back.  (Looking at you Rondell White.  Or Kyle Gibson/Martin Perez.  You get the idea, no more PTSD required)

Posted

 

I don't get why the current FO which constructed the current Twins and subsequent teardown are to be trusted with yet another Twins' reset? (Even if they adopt a Brewers mindset.)

I also don't understand the fascination and overhyping of teams that thrive in the regular season but consistently fail in the postseason? Twins 0-18 streak of postseason futility comes to mind.

They made an entertaining movie out of Moneyball but how many World Series did those A's win?

Posted
2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They are the 8 and 9 hitters and far and away the worst regulars on the team.

Playing good baseball is contagious. Playing good baseball leads to winning and winning breads enthusiasm. Enthusiasm leads to more winning. It's a great cycle when you get into it like the early century Twins and the Rays from a few years ago. Everybody wants to emulate you but no one can really put a finger on what you're doing to win. Sure, when you're a smaller market, replacing your star players for younger star players will help the cycle, but that's not what the Brewers have done at this point, and it hardly every happens because trading star players is a win for the team buying the star player just about every time. Even if you like their defense, the Brewers downgraded by removing those players, therefore it's not the reason for their winning.

I wasn't aware the the 9 hitter on the best team in baseball is automatically designated as not good pro ball players.

OR, maybe Ortiz and Durbin ARE good baseball players. That is why they have contributed positively in the WAR column. Not because winning is contagious or whatever. 

While Twins fans are ****ing on Abel and Tait as the return for Duran, the Brewers fans are cheering for their new infield of Nick Punto clones to win ballgames. 

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if you like their defense, the Brewers downgraded by removing those players, therefore it's not the reason for their winning.

Just because you say it, doesn't mean it's true.

Devin Williams: 0.5 WAR 

Durbin+Cortes: 1.1 WAR

Or 

Corbin Burnes: 3.9 WAR

Ortiz+Hall: 5.1 WAR

You don't have to like the idea of moving big name players, but it is frequently the right decision. Depth is very important in the major leagues, need I remind you the Twins started the season with Gasper and Keirsey on their opening day roster? 

Posted

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-murphy-braves-trade

MIL traded away prospect Esteury Ruiz (not Hader) & got Willian Contreras, & RHPs Payamps & Yeager

MIL doesn't depend on FA (yet they got burned on Rhys), they depend more on drafting,  developing & trades. MN always cries, it doesn't have enough money to spend on FAs., Yet when they do, they spend too much & end up paying to get rid of them. 

MIL traded for a good-hitting Contreras & made him into an elite catcher, improved Omar Narvaez defensively, & developed Quero as the best defensive catching prospect. MIL focuses on defense at all positions, baserunning, fundamentals in general & pitching. MN focuses on hitting HRs & forgets everything else except pitching.MN does a good job at tweaking MLB pitchers & developing promising SPs like Ober, SWR, Matthews & Festa & hopefuls Raya & Prielipp. But MIL is constantly gaining by trading elite pitchers & has new ones step right in.

But where MIL is far superior to MN is in player evaluations. They spot each player's strong points & capitalize on them. They develop each player to the best of their abilities & stress to them this is what you do well, so do it & not put more on them than what they are capable of doing & prosper, MN tried to make everyone into sluggers. Constantly putting players in positions where they didn't have the physical ability for a path to excel. Twins have favorites for one reason or another, who have every opportunity to succeed where they don't belong, while other, more promising players don't have a legimate chance to contribute there. Therefore, instead of producing valuable players on the field or by trade, they have many disgruntle players floundering in MiLB.

Posted
1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Very true, but playoff success is fickle and prone to small sample sizes.

IMO....a front office/team should aim to put themselves in a good position and hope the Gods of Random Outcomes favor them for a few weeks.  That's really the best you can hope for.  (Especially if you can't afford to be the Dodgers)

Agreed, and while the NL Central isn't nearly as bad as the AL Central, the Brewers haven't been striving to just win 85 games and hope that's good enough for their division. 

2025 will be the 4th season in the last 5 years that the Brewers win 90+ games, something the Twins have only managed once in their Minnesota history in 2002-2006. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-murphy-braves-trade

MIL traded away prospect Esteury Ruiz (not Hader) & got Willian Contreras, & RHPs Payamps & Yeager

MIL doesn't depend on FA (yet they got burned on Rhys), they depend more on drafting,  developing & trades. MN always cries, it doesn't have enough money to spend on FAs., Yet when they do, they spend too much & end up paying to get rid of them. 

MIL traded for a good-hitting Contreras & made him into an elite catcher, improved Omar Narvaez defensively, & developed Quero as the best defensive catching prospect. MIL focuses on defense at all positions, baserunning, fundamentals in general & pitching. MN focuses on hitting HRs & forgets everything else except pitching.MN does a good job at tweaking MLB pitchers & developing promising SPs like Ober, SWR, Matthews & Festa & hopefuls Raya & Prielipp. But MIL is constantly gaining by trading elite pitchers & has new ones step right in.

But where MIL is far superior to MN is in player evaluations. They spot each player's strong points & capitalize on them. They develop each player to the best of their abilities & stress to them this is what you do well, so do it & not put more on them than what they are capable of doing & prosper, MN tried to make everyone into sluggers. Constantly putting players in positions where they didn't have the physical ability for a path to excel. Twins have favorites for one reason or another, who have every opportunity to succeed where they don't belong, while other, more promising players don't have a legimate chance to contribute there. Therefore, instead of producing valuable players on the field or by trade, they have many disgruntle players floundering in MiLB.

I've never heard the TWins cry they don't have money to spend. Not once from the team. I agree with a lot of the rest of this post.

Posted
1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Very true, but playoff success is fickle and prone to small sample sizes.

IMO....a front office/team should aim to put themselves in a good position and hope the Gods of Random Outcomes favor them for a few weeks.  That's really the best you can hope for.  (Especially if you can't afford to be the Dodgers)

I agree.

One of my frustrations with the Twins of the 2000s was that they would not ever go big at the deadline to get add to the top of the line up or playoff caliber starter. They would make a bench move or add to the bullpen. Would I have that same frustration with the Brewers of the last 7 years? They are in great position this year. They added a second catcher and some injured arms. To @Mike Sixel’s point they are relying on their system instead of adding bench or bullpen pieces with the exception of getting that catcher. I hope this is their year.

Posted

From the OP:

"Including expected arbitration payouts, FanGraphs projects Minnesota's 2025 Opening Day payroll to be $66.8 million, which would be a $67.2 million decrease from its 2024 Opening Day payroll, which settled around $134 million."

Huh?

 

@Cody Schoenmann, how do you come up with a $66.8M payroll for 2025? Something isn't tracking. 

I'm not sure that figure even tracks for 2026. If Lopez/Buxton are $38M, the six guys who are arb-eligible got paid $15.7M this year and will certainly increase, and you still have to fill out the roster with 18 more guys getting pre-arb salaries. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's why it says "indirectly." The Brewers traded Hader to get Ruiz who they then traded to get Contreras.

In my mind, the Hader trade was after, so thank you. For Hader, they got Taylor Rogers, Lamet, Gasser, & Ruiz, which in turn flipped Ruiz for Contreras, Payamps & Yeager. So for Hader, they actually got  6 good players in the same year, pretty impressive.

Posted
2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I wasn't aware the the 9 hitter on the best team in baseball is automatically designated as not good pro ball players.

OR, maybe Ortiz and Durbin ARE good baseball players. That is why they have contributed positively in the WAR column. Not because winning is contagious or whatever. 

While Twins fans are ****ing on Abel and Tait as the return for Duran, the Brewers fans are cheering for their new infield of Nick Punto clones to win ballgames. 

Just because you say it, doesn't mean it's true.

Devin Williams: 0.5 WAR 

Durbin+Cortes: 1.1 WAR

Or 

Corbin Burnes: 3.9 WAR

Ortiz+Hall: 5.1 WAR

You don't have to like the idea of moving big name players, but it is frequently the right decision. Depth is very important in the major leagues, need I remind you the Twins started the season with Gasper and Keirsey on their opening day roster? 

Cumulative WAR is a poor metric for these swaps. Good for both Durbin and Ortiz that they can play enough defense to not be negative contributors a la Julien, but Eddy doesn't look like a MLB caliber player at this point so Idk why that's the bar we're trying to clear. 

If you need to commit 2 roster spots, and 400-500 PAs each to a very light hitting 3B and SS just to eek out 1-2 WAR each that's not an equivalent exchange for a legit Cy Young arm, even with limited team control. 

Posted
3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Well...you did leave Contreras off that list and that would seem to be a fairly large omission.  

Ortiz and Durbin may not be gamebreakers but they occupy starting positions on the team as at least positive WAR players and they received them for guys they otherwise wouldn't have on the roster.  Something is better than nothing.

Wasn't that the main issue so often with good Twins teams in the recent past?  It wasn't that they didn't have the star power or the elite players, but the dregs of their roster always held them back.  (Looking at you Rondell White.  Or Kyle Gibson/Martin Perez.  You get the idea, no more PTSD required)

I think that depends on your level of commitment to that "something." 

Aren't Durbin and/or Ortiz kinda clones of those roster afterthoughts you're talking about? Speed or defense guys that can't really hit. You can hide them in a lineup during the regular season but against better competition, i.e. the playoffs, they're going to be exposed. 

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