What Recent Trade Deadlines Say About Value of Twins' Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe

[cjm0926]

If I'm the Twins I am offering Philadelphia Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach for Andrew Painter, Max Kepler, and maybe a lotto ticket. If Philly is truly going all in, they may feel pressured enough to eventually add Painter to get what they think may be the missing piece in the pen. It would suck for Minnesota to lose Jax, but ideally Varland could slide into that setup role, which then leaves a bullpen spot to backfill. At this point, Kepler probably has negative trade value and I'd have to think Philly would like to dump him if possible, which works in the Twins favor, and it gives Minnesota a familiar face and OF depth that will be passable/not far off from Larnach's overall production for the rest of 2025. Philly has been rumored to want to add better hitting to their outfield, and I don't see Larnach as a core piece of the Twins with E-Rod and Jenkins not far away, so I'm hoping his splits vs. RHP are enough to persuade Philly into sending us one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Even if Painter reaches his 75th percentile outcome, he will be a top of the rotation type pitcher.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, se7799 said:

Well the Twins did make the past season 2 years ago and still have a chance to this year.  But ya congrats on picking your favorite team to lose every year.  Sounds like a fun way to be.

OK, I get it. Even though I pick for them to lose, I still root for them to win, I still want them to win, but if you overlook what's wrong & pretend everything is fine, nothing changes. If nothing changes, we can't win. It might be more fun to pretend everything is fine but I can't.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, cjm0926 said:

If I'm the Twins I am offering Philadelphia Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach for Andrew Painter, Max Kepler, and maybe a lotto ticket. If Philly is truly going all in, they may feel pressured enough to eventually add Painter to get what they think may be the missing piece in the pen. It would suck for Minnesota to lose Jax, but ideally Varland could slide into that setup role, which then leaves a bullpen spot to backfill. At this point, Kepler probably has negative trade value and I'd have to think Philly would like to dump him if possible, which works in the Twins favor, and it gives Minnesota a familiar face and OF depth that will be passable/not far off from Larnach's overall production for the rest of 2025. Philly has been rumored to want to add better hitting to their outfield, and I don't see Larnach as a core piece of the Twins with E-Rod and Jenkins not far away, so I'm hoping his splits vs. RHP are enough to persuade Philly into sending us one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Even if Painter reaches his 75th percentile outcome, he will be a top of the rotation type pitcher.

They'd have to give up more for Painter, imo. Please don't add Kepler. This team would play him. 

[MinnInPa]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Bullpen arms are so overvalued, especially carrying forward due to their extreme volitility. 

Not to mention this bullpen, high in talent for sure, proclaimed as one of the best in the league the last two seasons has actually faltered with results in the bottom half of the league. 

They have the highest FIP and WAR since 2024? Cool. They are also 21st in ERA, 24th in LOB%. Resulting in the 23rd highest WPA as a unit. 

Trade 2 of the 3 of Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran. Trade Coulombe. Trade Topa if anyone's interested. 

Reset the bullpen because who knows how effective any of these guys will be in 2027, which is when the Twins should be building their roster towards. You'd still have Varland, Sands and a bunch of hungry kids that you can patch together with quality waiver pick ups. 

And as this article suggests, the return on these arms would surprise you. 

if we can get 2 bags of Chips for Topa ..make the deal !!

[cjm0926]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They'd have to give up more for Painter, imo. Please don't add Kepler. This team would play him. 

It is very possible they would have to give up more, which I'd balk at. Im keeping this offer firm to Philly, in which maybe as the deadline creeps up, Dombrowski folds and accepts it if they think Jax is the level of arm that anchor the back of their bullpen to a World Series. As for Kepler, I am not too insistent on getting him back, just the fit in Philly has not been good and it actually helps the Twins in trade value I'd think. He would just give the twins a known commodity in the corner outfield instead of completely relying on a combination of Wallner/Keirsey/E-Rod.

[AKTwinsFan]

Not Jax and Duran. Its about team control, maybe Columbe if we dont think we'll be in the post season. He's having a career year so we might need him come post season. If we dont then trade him. Not much time left bu4 if we dont come out swinging (literally) in the second half then yes he's a big trade piece. Jax should be moved to starter.

[jorgenswest]

I am not sure these recent deadline trade are helpful to me. These two elements would be helpful.

• Looking at Duran and Jax, what comps do they have for relievers traded with two additional years of control?
• How did the prospects in return perform for their new team?

This might take two studies that go back 6-10 years. We need to go back far enough to see what the prospects contributed while their new team had control.

• What should we expect from a 45 FV as compared to a 55? How does the risk associated with the future value play in?
• What was the return for relievers with 3 years of control (including current) in terms of future value and risk? What was the return for a solid lefty on an expiring contract?

We need to stop using prospect rankings. There is nothing to learn from them. You can’t compare season to season or organization to organization. You can’t compare winter to midsession update. The midseason update is always skewed by prospects graduating out pushing others artificially higher in the list at the deadline. Rankings are useless in trying to learn from previous deals.

[Twinsrtheworst]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

OK, I get it. Even though I pick for them to lose, I still root for them to win, I still want them to win, but if you overlook what's wrong & pretend everything is fine, nothing changes. If nothing changes, we can't win. It might be more fun to pretend everything is fine but I can't.

Once again you go on a tangent of quoting things I never said. I never stated everything is fine .  It’s not.  And you f you or I think we are going to make changes, then we are screwed, and I actually am informed more than most on the state of affairs with the organization.  Knowing many of the players, I will root for them every single day and twice on Sunday.  But ya go ahead and keep saying so and do is going to peter out.  If they do you get to be right.  If they don’t you just repeat it next year. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

47 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Nobody is going to pay what Duran and Jax are worth. What you will receive will be similar to what you would receive next year at this same time. Prospects are just that. Nothing is for sure and these 2 are proven MLB top tier relievers with very manageable salaries. In my mind unless you are getting proven MLB talent in return why would you trade. The team is closer to contention and playoffs than it is not. Play the games for 2 weeks. 

This. Duran and Jax have 2 years of control after 2025. Now is not the time to trade them for prospects unless you believe the team cannot contend this year AND next year. I don't believe the FO thinks that and I don't believe either will be traded. The smarter move is to play out this year and the first half of next year with them in the bullpen. If we aren't contenders, the time to trade them is next deadline where they will get almost as good a prospect return as they would now, maybe equally as good.  

The one trade that would potentially make sense to me is a trade for a controllable MLB or on the verge of MLB bat, particularly a Catcher or athletic OF. A trade for a Daulton Rushing type plus a couple of solid prospects might make sense or a 3 way trade where we give up Jax plus  a good prospect to a contender, a third team give us a controllable MLB bat, and that team gets prospects from the contender. Maybe something where the Marlins give us Kyle Stowers or the Rockies give us Hunter Goodwin. I just don't think any of that is going to happen.  

I know I'm flogging a dead horse but the players to trade for prospects are the expiring contracts - Castro, Paddack, Bader, and Coulombe (France, Vasquez, and Clemens have little to no trade value). Jax and Duran should be kept until at least this time next year, but if you trade them, only trade them for a controllable MLB bat, not for prospects.  

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Jax and Duran should be kept until at least this time next year, but if you trade them, only trade them for a controllable MLB bat, not for prospects.  

What player (be specific) that is a controllable worthwhile MLB bat is available for Jax or Duran? I can't think of a single player fitting that criteria. For Ryan, there are some bats available. That is another conversation. Thus, the Twins wind up with the same roster again next year. It becomes a bit of a circular discussion. Two years ago and again last year the team was judged to have the roster needed to win. Falvey has been transparent and consistently voiced confidence in the rosters. Maybe the saying "If not now ... when" applies. I guess you are suggesting next year or the year after/ wait and see. I feel this has been the approach. 

I like the pitching and am willing to trade a few pitchers too, which is always a gamble because pitching is precious. My main concern or complaint with the Twins relates to the position side of the rosters. The team is slow. The defense is poor. The base-running is mostly bad. The bats don't hit. Right now I can watch ground balls hit to Correa and anything hit out towards Buxton. On offense, it is Buxton and Castro. The team needs a pulse beyond those two players from my viewing. Others are completely content or hopeful that improvement will arrive soon. I hope so too .... at least in some form at some time. I can wait. I just don't want to.

 

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This. Duran and Jax have 2 years of control after 2025. Now is not the time to trade them for prospects unless you believe the team cannot contend this year AND next year. I don't believe the FO thinks that and I don't believe either will be traded. The smarter move is to play out this year and the first half of next year with them in the bullpen. If we aren't contenders, the time to trade them is next deadline where they will get almost as good a prospect return as they would now, maybe equally as good.  

The one trade that would potentially make sense to me is a trade for a controllable MLB or on the verge of MLB bat, particularly a Catcher or athletic OF. A trade for a Daulton Rushing type plus a couple of solid prospects might make sense or a 3 way trade where we give up Jax plus  a good prospect to a contender, a third team give us a controllable MLB bat, and that team gets prospects from the contender. Maybe something where the Marlins give us Kyle Stowers or the Rockies give us Hunter Goodwin. I just don't think any of that is going to happen.  

I know I'm flogging a dead horse but the players to trade for prospects are the expiring contracts - Castro, Paddack, Bader, and Coulombe (France, Vasquez, and Clemens have little to no trade value). Jax and Duran should be kept until at least this time next year, but if you trade them, only trade them for a controllable MLB bat, not for prospects.  

Yeah the Athletic mentions the same thing. The Twins FO only seems interested in a young MLB controllable bat and that sure seems to point to Rushing to me. It is one area they lack depth and he is controllable for quite a while.  

Honestly I think Clase from the Guardians has a better chance of being traded as they don't always seem to demand as much in trade.  Pittsburgh has some interesting relievers as well.  Minnesota seems so hard to deal with as you generally have to really overpay.

It does feel a year too early to be trading Jax or Duran, but if they fix a weakness on the team I would do it.  Even if they lost Duran they could move guys over and fill with even say Festa. Once Pablo and Ober are back two guys will need to go down.  Likely Matthews and Festa and they have been pitching Festa with an opener so he knows how to come in cold to some degree.  It would be another high octane arm for the pen short term. They could still be good for the wild card even with that trade and if it did bring back Rushing that would help now and into the future as well.

They can do it, but it does depend on the return.

[jmlease1]

Feels like unless the Twins collapse out the gate after the all-star break the only way a trade happens is if they can work a 3-way deal involving one of their top relievers. The teams looking to add a closer/elite set-up man aren't likely going to have a quality MLB bat available to move in the deal and if they're making a playoff push will want to deal in prospects. So maybe there's a 3-way deal that can be made where a team that's heading for the beach already gives up the bat in exchange for the playoff-bound team's prospects.

But that's awfully complex and can fall apart quickly. But it's the sort of move that might be worth looking hard at if the Twins are above .500 at the deadline, and I'd certainly be able to support it. Team has ABs available at DH, 1B, or OF for a guy who can hit, especially if they really punish LHP.

I suspect little will happen. Pohlads won't authorize more spending, Twins won't be looking to move a prime reliever for prospects, and I don't think the team will fall on its face out the gate hard enough where a fire sale is even that logical (except for the people who gave up on the team months ago, want to blow everything up, and have all the front office & coaching staff fired in favor of the Ghost of Tommy Lasorda or something)

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

Once again you go on a tangent of quoting things I never said. I never stated everything is fine .  It’s not.  And you f you or I think we are going to make changes, then we are screwed, and I actually am informed more than most on the state of affairs with the organization.  Knowing many of the players, I will root for them every single day and twice on Sunday.  But ya go ahead and keep saying so and do is going to peter out.  If they do you get to be right.  If they don’t you just repeat it next year. 

I did misunderstand in what you said in my 1st response, & I'm sorry. That's why I made my 2nd.  I'm saying if I see something that's off, I'm going to say so. I'm not blaming players for petering out; players do & there's no shame in that. I defend many players whom I think are being unjustly criticized or mismanaged.  I do what I do because I want the Twins to win. Even though we might not agree on the state of affairs. I'll be rooting for the Twins right beside you.

P.S. - So there is no misunderstanding. By petering out, I mean being worn down due to to a long season.

[Rufus]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Because he only has half a year left on his contract and the way he has pitched the last few years he is going to cost more money that the Twins would likely spend for a reliever. So they won't extend him. 

If he were to fetch a decent prospect it could help build the team for the future.  If that prospect works out they would have 6 years of control of that prospect for giving up half a year of Coulumbe.  Or they use the prospect acquired to get something else they need down the line.  Or if they don't trade him they get nothing.  except a maybe they make the wild card, maybe they don't chance and that's it.

The question is do you push the chips in on this team or cash out and try again another day\year.  The FO will have to decide.

If they want to have a chance at doing anything this year they cannot give up the only reliable lefty they have, unless they get one in return.  If they lose him at the end of the season, that's the game they play to stay half way viable this season.   Just like the rumors of trading Buxton, after all these years he is finally living up to his hype, he wants to be here  and he is on a team friendly contract.  Why on earth would the Twins trade him now?  

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, Rufus said:

If they want to have a chance at doing anything this year they cannot give up the only reliable lefty they have, unless they get one in return.  If they lose him at the end of the season, that's the game they play to stay half way viable this season.   Just like the rumors of trading Buxton, after all these years he is finally living up to his hype, he wants to be here  and he is on a team friendly contract.  Why on earth would the Twins trade him now?  

Most of the trade rumors on Buxton are coming from outside of MN, probably from people who want him playing for a team they cover regularly, rather than having to go to MN to watch him play.

[farmerguychris]

I'd be interested in trading either Jax or Duran for prospects if we could then turn around and trade those prospects for hitting that would help us right now.

It would be a tight needle to thread, but considering contenders are going to want the pitching but not give up major league ready hitters in exchange - its the only way it would work.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I am not a big fan of this FO, but less of a fan of the people saying stand pat do nothing, the team needs to trade FA's to be and probably one of Duran or Jax (I know it would hurt) but there needs to be a bit of refresh.

[NYCTK]

48 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Now is not the time to trade them for prospects unless you believe the team cannot contend this year AND next year.

There are many that think exactly that.

I think they can recover and be ok again next season (woo-hoo) but I cannot envision them being a true contender. And many here would admit the same if they're being honest. 

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, Buxton was asked, pointedly, about being traded to a contender. He specifically stated he has a NT, likes Minnesota, and is going to retire a Minnesota Twin. There will be no discussions about this as far as he is concerned. 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

There are many that think exactly that.

I think they can recover and be ok again next season (woo-hoo) but I cannot envision them being a true contender. And many here would admit the same if they're being honest. 

I'm probably on the same page as you, but I think there is value in being just okay next year if they do it with young talent instead of veteran retreads. That's how you build a contender for 2027. If they're a  wild-card contender, but they're doing it with Festa and Matthews in the rotation, Prielipp and Raya in the bullpen, Gonzalez and Rodriguez in the outfield, Keaschall in the infield and a promising young catcher, that's more exciting. They can take the next step forward in 2027.

[NYCTK]

Just as an idea of how much the Twins are in the driver's seat in the RP market, if you exclude the contenders and pitchers not yet in arbitration, the Twins control 4 of the top 5 arms, as projected by in-season ZIPS.

Name	Team	FIP
Jhoan Duran	MIN	2.26
Griffin Jax	MIN	2.73
Brock Stewart	MIN	2.77
Félix Bautista	BAL	2.81
Danny Coulombe	MIN	2.86
Aaron Bummer	ATL	2.89
David Bednar	PIT	3.01

Sell 2 or 3 and you're getting a really good return. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

There are many that think exactly that.

I think they can recover and be ok again next season (woo-hoo) but I cannot envision them being a true contender. And many here would admit the same if they're being honest. 

I understand that thought which would point to trading Duran and/or Jax (and possibly Ryan) now, trade the expiring contracts, and lean into a rebuild.  I just don't agree. I think the goal is to build a 90+ win team that can compete in the playoffs. I think the pitching is almost there already, but the hitting and defense need work. I think they can get here on the hitting side with rebounds from 2 of Correa, Lewis and Wallner, plus the addition of Keaschall if he's 85%+ of what he showed in his brief audition. The defense is a tougher issue, but we can improve the OF defense by re-signing Bader(making Larnach and Wallner part-time OFs and/or a full time DH) and Lee helps us at 2B if he can hit well enough to play every day. I think we'll know a lot more after the second half of this season and the first half of next year and I don't think that the return for those three pitchers will be materially less if we wait until the 2026 trading deadline, unless of course one gets injured. I'm willing to take that risk to wait. 

This is all probably an academic exercise any way since the possibility of a sale is likely to mean that very little happens before 7/31. Still fun, though. 

[NYCTK]

29 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is all probably an academic exercise any way since the possibility of a sale is likely to mean that very little happens before 7/31. Still fun, though. 

This is the point really. In the middle of a boring, uninspired season fans are provided an opportunity to theorize and envision a path to success. 

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Just as an idea of how much the Twins are in the driver's seat in the RP market, if you exclude the contenders and pitchers not yet in arbitration, the Twins control 4 of the top 5 arms, as projected by in-season ZIPS.

Name	Team	FIP
Jhoan Duran	MIN	2.26
Griffin Jax	MIN	2.73
Brock Stewart	MIN	2.77
Félix Bautista	BAL	2.81
Danny Coulombe	MIN	2.86
Aaron Bummer	ATL	2.89
David Bednar	PIT	3.01

Sell 2 or 3 and you're getting a really good return. 

A team might also remember how good Paddack was in the bullpen and convert him back to relief.

[David Maro]

Everyone has been saying they need more pitching and now let's trade some away. I don't think you will see Miranda or Julien in a Twins uniform again,so let's start there. Just remember at the season's end they will be down to one catcher. You don't hear anything about the catching they have in the wings. 

And another thing the team is for sale,do they really want to start weakening the team.

[Doc Lenz]

With Rocco as our skipper I see nothing short of winning the World Series this year. With the talent and Rocco at the helm victory is assured.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have pitchers. While Ober and Lopez are likely 2 (Ober) and 4 (Lopez) weeks away from their full contingent, they still have Ryan, Matthews, Festa, Woods Richardson, and Paddack. Raya and Adams are spot duty from August onwards. The Twins do not match Philadelphia or several other teams with their top 5, but the Twins are in good shape. The bullpen is strong as well.

The position side of the roster? There are issues galore. It would be grand if Jeffers, France, Clemens, Lee, Lewis, Correa, Larnach, Bader, and Wallner started to hit. We are already pleased with Castro and Buxton. Not much is expected from Keirsey Jr. or Vazquez. What are the odds of 9 players picking it up while 2 maintain their current batting? Base-running is not happening because the Twins are not only the slowest team in baseball, they also are extremely reticent to take chances. That's a rough combination. Good defense is a pitcher best friend. As much as we all love our team it is fair to say they don't have anyone besides Buxton to call their friend, although Correa is remarkably consistent. We can accept flaws but the team has about 6 DH's. That is the most competitive position in the lineup for Rocco to fill out and even then the production does not stand out. 

The most realistic hope is that all of Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins arrive with production as good or better than their current minor league output. 

The reasons to acquire talent seems pretty clear to me. The Twins front office does not agree with my observations and many people on Twins Daily do not either. We get to watch the remainder of the season unfold to produce a partial answer. No matter what occurs there will be plenty of baseball to watch. I'll enjoy the games because I'm not one to give up.

[Otaknam]

Wait until sometime in August and assess the chances of making the wildcard. If that looks bleak, trade Coulombe for a solid prospect. Also trade either Duran or Jax if the haul is very good, and move Varland into the setup role. They could also look at trading either Wallner or Larnach as part of a bigger deal with a reliever since both sluggers have similar offensive and defensive profiles. This team isn’t going anywhere this year, so start looking at the future.  I like the idea of acquiring Andrew Painter from the Phillies. 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Wait until sometime in August and assess the chances of making the wildcard. If that looks bleak, trade Coulombe for a solid prospect. Also trade either Duran or Jax if the haul is very good, and move Varland into the setup role. They could also look at trading either Wallner or Larnach as part of a bigger deal with a reliever since both sluggers have similar offensive and defensive profiles. This team isn’t going anywhere this year, so start looking at the future.  I like the idea of acquiring Andrew Painter from the Phillies. 

Trade deadline is July 31st, so if they wait until August they probably wouldn't get anyone to answer their calls for obvious reasons. 

[Exiled in Illinois]

Interesting article, interesting comments.  Enjoy reading them.  Its all fiction.  Twins aren't going to make any big moves at deadline.  Current ownership isn't going to invest in the future by being a seller, isn't going to invest in the present by being a buyer.  They might make some move on the fringe to give us something to talk or read about, but otherwise, this is our team, lets hope they can make some magic the second half.