Brooks Lee’s Recent Hot Streak Is Not What It Seems

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have spent most of the 2025 season searching for any kind of spark in their sputtering offense. With Carlos Correa struggling to find his form, Royce Lewis sidelined again by the injured list, and other lineup pieces stuck in cold spells, the team has been desperate for someone (anyone) to step up. In early June, that spark came from an unexpected source: Brooks Lee.

For a team starved for good offensive stories, Lee’s emergence has been a welcome headline. But is this sudden hot streak the sign of a sustainable breakout? Or could this be a classic case of small-sample magic that fades as quickly as it appeared?

The Good: Contact Skills and Line-to-Line Ability
Lee was never projected as a slugger destined for 30+ home runs, but that doesn’t mean he can’t provide real value at the plate. What he offers is a balanced, contact-driven approach with the ability to use the whole field. He was advertised as a polished college bat when the Twins took him with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and this recent stretch has shown why.

Lee has been on an absolute tear over his last 15 games, going 21-for-60 with three home runs and two doubles. He’s riding an impressive 15-game hitting streak during which he’s slashed .350/.371/.533 with a .904 OPS. It's exactly the kind of production this lineup needed from a fresh face. Lee, a switch-hitter, has also made a quiet but notable improvement from the left side of the plate, where most of his MLB plate appearances will come. His Ideal Attack Angle Percentage, an indicator of how often his swings match the optimal path for good contact, has ticked up from 55.6% last season to 56.4% this year.

Even before his promotion to the big leagues, evaluators praised Lee for having a professional approach at the plate. He’s shown that ability in this streak, rarely chasing pitches out of the zone and squaring up fastballs, particularly from right-handed pitching. His three home runs during the hot stretch have reminded fans that while he may not be a masher, he has just enough pop to punish mistakes.

“I saw the ball really well that first at-bat,” Lee said after Sunday’s game. “Took a pitch 1-0 that was in, and then my next pitch, I felt comfortable swinging. Was way ahead in the count, and I got a pitch over the heart of the plate that I could do damage on, and I did.”

The Red Flags: Is the Batted Ball Luck Sustainable?
While Lee’s numbers over the past two weeks have been fantastic on the surface, a deeper dive into the metrics raises some red flags. His batting average on balls in play (BAbip) in June sits at a staggering .500, a mark that is nearly double the BAbip he posted over the season’s first two months. No qualified hitter in MLB maintains anything close to a .500 BAbip over a large sample, so this number screams regression.

Essentially, a lot of Lee’s contact lately has been falling into holes, landing just out of reach of defenders, or squeaking through the infield. Those hits count the same in the box score, but they usually even out over time. Pitchers and defenses will adjust, and those seeing-eye grounders may turn into outs in the weeks ahead.

Another concern is Lee’s near-total lack of walks since the calendar turned to June. Over this hot stretch, he’s drawn just one walk. While it’s understandable that a young hitter feeling confident might be swinging more often, the lack of free passes is a warning sign. Opposing pitchers could start exploiting his eagerness, tempting him with pitches just off the plate and watching the free outs pile up.

Then there’s the issue of bat speed. Lee’s average bat speed this season is 70.1 mph from both sides of the plate, below the MLB average of 71.6 mph. While he can make up for some of that with timing, pitch recognition, and a clean swing path (as indicated by his improved attack angle), this gap suggests that elite velocity or high-spin pitches could give him trouble down the line. Without standout raw power or bat speed, Lee will have to continue thriving on skill and approach rather than physical tools, a risky formula for long-term offensive success in today’s game.

Realistic Expectations for Lee Going Forward
It’s important not to dismiss what Lee has done. The Twins needed an offensive boost and he delivered in a big way when the team was desperate. His hit streak has kept rallies alive, provided timely offense, and likely earned him a long look in the big leagues even when other players return from injury.

But it’s equally important to set realistic expectations. Lee is unlikely to be the kind of bat that carries a lineup or racks up extra-base hits at a star-level clip. He profiles best as a solid, everyday contributor who can hit for average, put the ball in play, and give the Twins a flexible defensive piece. If he becomes a switch-hitting version of Luis Arraez with a bit more pop but far less extreme contact ability, that would be a tremendous outcome.

“Every week you kind of see him doing different things out there on the field,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “He’s not just going up there looking for the ball -- see it, hit it and attacking everything. He’s actually going up there with a good plan. Again, an improving player and a guy with good ability, and it’s exciting to watch a young guy make those improvements.”

For now, though, fans should enjoy the ride but keep one eye on the warning lights. The BAbip won’t stay this high forever. The walks need to return. And eventually, the league will adjust to him. How Lee responds to those adjustments will determine if this hot streak is a true breakout or just a fun blip during a summer when the Twins badly needed a reason to cheer.

Regardless of how the next month plays out, Brooks Lee has shown that he belongs on a big-league diamond. Whether he can become a key piece of Minnesota’s future lineup remains a storyline worth watching.

What stands out about his hot streak so far? Can he sustain his current pace? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Maybebaby]

Attaway, pour the cold water on anything positive this team may have.  Thanks a lot!

[LambchoP]

Well, he's putting up better numbers than Correa this year, but then again so is Castro. 37 million well spent for a replacement level production. There needs to be some serious roster shake up this off-season. Can we get our new owners yet?!?

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, Maybebaby said:

Attaway, pour the cold water on anything positive this team may have.  Thanks a lot!

He is the one bright spot in  the collection of hacks they presently send to the plate.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Good analysis, thanks. Lee's recent hot streak has been great but that's what it is, a hot streak. This tear is nowhere near sustainable.

Lee looks kind of like what was projected for him – a high floor/relatively low ceiling every day MLB player. If he could settle in at .275/.325/.425 with 10 – 15 homeruns a year, I think we would all be thrilled. He isn't there yet because he doesn't take enough walks but that may come with age and experience. He's a little limited because he is so slow so he doesn't give you a lot of upside on the base paths no matter how smart a baserunner he is. Still, it's all good. I think he could be a roster mainstay at 2B hitting in the 6 or 7 hole for many years to come.

[GNess]

Yes, I get it Lee is unlikely to hit .350 for the remainder of the season. What MLB players are able to put up those kind of numbers for a season? Despite that somewhat obvious conclusion I am going to enjoy Lee's streak as it unfolds.

[terrydactyls]

So the metrics say that Lee is over performing.  Great.  Are there any fancy new metrics that can tell us if he is adjusting to major league pitching and might continue hitting better than his "low floor" prediction?

[jmlease1]

He's obviously not going to sustain a .500 BABIP for the rest of the season. You can argue that pitchers are going to start giving him more things off the plate and he'll start chasing and watch his BA tumble...or you can say they'll stop throwing him pitches in the zone and he'll start taking more walks. Do you want to see Brooks Lee struggle or succeed, because that might inform your answer. It's pretty normal for players on a tear to not be taking a bunch of walks, because they are swinging the bat more because they're getting good results. Virtuous cycle. We're not seeing Lee chase, so as long as he's taking good hacks at balls in zone, sure he's going to drop back some, but he's not going to fall off the planet.

We'll see. With K's being so prevalent in MLB these days, a high contact player may have some room to work. He's also shown enough pop in his bat that pitchers are going to be reluctant to groove one in there.

Bringing up Arraez is a little tiresome, because of how it sparks the same tired arguments about how good or not good he is, but there is some usefulness in the comp here, because it highlights what could make Brooks Lee an effective player even without a ton of bat speed and maybe without taking tons of walks (I suspect Lee will take more walks and get fewer hits, but it'll even out somewhat). But Lee is also a fine defensive player at multiple positions, so even if he's not hitting over .300 and sustaining an OPS over .900 he can still be a very useful and effective player manning multiple spots in the infield and running a slash line like .275/.315/.400. I think there might be a little more in the tank for Lee as a hitter than that, which is why is nice to see him swinging the bat so well right now and getting good results.

[Greglw3]

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. 

I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Analytics  are a buzzkill. I would rather have seen this piece as an explanation after regression kicks in. For now, I want to just enjoy a talented young player having some success.

[Doc Lenz]

Rocco quoted as saying Brooks is doing something every week to get better. Hoping Rocco isn’t around next week to see what Brooks is doing.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Well... 10 comments before we got the "let's fire Rocco" comment that has nothing to do with the article...

[stringer bell]

First of all, Lee's "hot streak" hasn't really been all that hot. Yes, he's hit in 15 straight games, but prior to Sunday, he was 18-56 with four extra base hits and a .345 OBP. Not exactly Player of the Week or Month production. That said, he's improved his numbers so that he is roughly an average hitter on the year (96 OPS+).

I think he is improving at swinging at pitches he can handle and hitting the ball harder, which would naturally improve his BABiP. A guy who can handle three infield spots capably and is a league average hitter isn't bad. He just isn't a star. 

The tools he has seem to indicate that his ceiling isn't much higher than capable big league regular. He doesn't have good foot speed or a really strong arm. The lower than average swing speed suggests he won't hit for big power. He's getting his shot this year and is apparently healthy. He's a lot better player than last year and still improving. Not a front page success story, but not a disappointment either. 

[stringer bell]

Looking at Lee's stats for the season, given that he was on the IL to start--projecting his 208 PAs to full-time play (about 600 plate appearances), he would hit .267, 21 homers and 75 RBI. Pretty close to what team leader Carlos Santana put up last year. Of course, Lee won't get that many at-bats because of his early injury. 

[Doctor Gast]

He feels comfortable at the plate & sees the ball well, that's a recipe for success & explains his eagerness. He's hot so the Twins need to take advantage of that & pair him up with Castro who's also hot (move Lee up the order). He's a MLB hitter, he'll adjust to what comes. A switch hitter who plays 3 valuable INF positions makes him very valuable.

[Galen]

Terrible having someone on the team that limits strikeouts and pop ups...hits for some power...and bats 25 points above the league average

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. 

I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

Some of it has to do with luck. Nobody has the skill to have a .500 BABIP. Ty Cobb had a .383 career BABIP. Do you think Brooks Lee is a better hitter than Ty Cobb?

[DocBauer]

I'm really confused about opinions on Lee. He was considered the most polished, pure hitter in the 2022 draft. He had a high floor, and a pretty decent ceiling. The Twins were lucky to grab him with the 8th pick that year.

He went to the FCL for a couple of games, and was quickly promoted to CR at A+ where he raked before getting 2 games and 8 PA at AA. 

He spent most of 2023 at AA as a 22yo, where he raked.  He moved to AAA later in the season and was OK, but not great. 

He bounced around a bit in 2024 due to injury but produced a .974 OPS at AAA with quality production before a ML promotion. 

We know the rest of the story. He raked when promoted, gets hurt, etc.

But this kid is only 24yo with 2 1/2 years of MILB duty behind him. He's a solid glove wherever you place him. He's playing daily, which I've stated has to take place. He's got got good instincts. He knows how to play the game. His recent hot streak shouldn't be dismissed. He's still growing as young player. His current BABIP might be unsustainable, but his growing approach can make him a really solid offensive player. 

Once the swing and miss becomes a better K/BB percentage he's ready to be a more consistent performer. I'm not sure about 20 HR performance, but I see mid teens HR with 30 Dbls and a solid AVG and solid OB. 

But I don't think luck is involved here. I think we're watching a young prospect developing right in front of us.

[Fezig]

metrics schmetrics

[Doctor Wu]

Essentially, a lot of Lee’s contact lately has been falling into holes, landing just out of the reach of defenders, or squeaking through the infield. Those hits count the same in the box score, but things usually even out over time. Pitchers and defenses will adjust, and those seeing-eye grounders may turn into outs in the weeks ahead.  Another concern is Lee’s near-total lack of walks since the calendar turned to June. 

Hmm ... I don't watch entire games, but what I see/read of Lee's performances lately lines up with that analysis. Most of the hits do seem "just out of reach" of the fielders. But the biggest red flag for me is the lack of walks. That needs to change. Other than that, it's still a hopeful recent stretch for Lee, As others have already said, he's still young and learning the pro game. Let's hope for good days ahead. 

[Old Twins Hat]

But the biggest red flag for me is the lack of walks. That needs to change.

Man, if he would have laid off that high outside fastball in the 8th last night, after a great AB with a lot of foul balls, that would have been special.

As it was, he struck out swinging on a 3-2 pitch and they threw out Keirsey at 2B attempting a steal.

Neither player got it done.  That's a big part of losing close games.

[Parfigliano]

20 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. 

I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

Dark Side of the Mean...good one😉

[AKTwinsFan]

He's been better than Correa at 1/200 or less the cost. He might not be gold glove caliber yet but it's not unobtainable. I think he's only gonna get better too.

[twinstalker]

My projection of Lee was a second division infielder with a someday pop-up season that might get him an all-star game.  Not a guy to build around, but not a bad guy to keep around.  Seems right on so far.  Last year at this time, that's the description of what I considered the #2 prospect in the system after Jenkins.  I thought Keaschall was trending way upward and EmRod was overrated.

[Craig Arko]

How long does the streak need to go before it is what it seems?

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

How long does the streak need to go before it is what it seems?

 

On July 6, 2024, Minnesota Twins third baseman Jose Miranda tied the MLB record for consecutive hits with a single in the fourth inning against the Astros. Miranda's 12th straight hit tied the record set by Walt Dropo (1952), Pinky Higgins (1938), and Johnny Kling (1902). Miranda's streak also made him the only player in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to achieve this feat.

 

Numbers can be deceiving.

[Greglw3]

On 6/17/2025 at 10:02 PM, DJL44 said:

Some of it has to do with luck. Nobody has the skill to have a .500 BABIP. Ty Cobb had a .383 career BABIP. Do you think Brooks Lee is a better hitter than Ty Cobb?

I don’ have any regard for BABIP and the way it’s used to say this result and that result is due to bad luck.

Most of the SABR statistics are young, unproven by any scientific method and mislead about the abilities of the players they are evaluating. The most dubious are WAR, OAA, FIP, all of the so called advanced defensive metrics, launch angle, exit velocity are all based on dubious assumptions.

Bill James wrote an article in late 2021 reflectively concluding the WAR is a deeply flawed statistic. He used a very reasoned set of arguments to support his conclusion. He claimed that WAR should be WAG, i.e Wild Ass Guess.

I read one of the people that worked on OAA say that it needed more work. Carlos Correa, when asked about his low OAA a few years ago when he was playing brilliant defense, said, "of course my OAA is low, we have a fly ball staff."

Stats like OPS, OPS+ while much more palatable to me, are still biased statistics. Toward power hitters. They don’t take into account role on a team so a .400 OBP leadoff hitter with 6 HR doesn’t get the same credit as a .235 avg 30 HR hitter with a .300 OBP. The same statistic shouldn’t be applied to both hitters equally.

For what it's worth, Rod Carew had a BABIP of .408 in 1977. He had a magic wand and could place the ball intentionally, often, with bat and wrist manipulation. No luck. Just skill.

Ty Cobb’s career Batting average was, without running a z test or t test, statistically the same as his BABIP. 

[Mike Sixel]

He's on pace for 24 home runs a year, or more really, during this streak. And people say he's not hitting the ball hard enough?