Brooks Lee’s Recent Hot Streak is Not What It Seems

Attaway, pour the cold water on anything positive this team may have.  Thanks a lot!

Well, he's putting up better numbers than Correa this year, but then again so is Castro. 37 million well spent for a replacement level production. There needs to be some serious roster shake up this off-season. Can we get our new owners yet?!?

He's obviously not going to sustain a .500 BABIP for the rest of the season. You can argue that pitchers are going to start giving him more things off the plate and he'll start chasing and watch his BA tumble...or you can say they'll stop throwing him pitches in the zone and he'll start taking more walks. Do you want to see Brooks Lee struggle or succeed, because that might inform your answer. It's pretty normal for players on a tear to not be taking a bunch of walks, because they are swinging the bat more because they're getting good results. Virtuous cycle. We're not seeing Lee chase, so as long as he's taking good hacks at balls in zone, sure he's going to drop back some, but he's not going to fall off the planet.

We'll see. With K's being so prevalent in MLB these days, a high contact player may have some room to work. He's also shown enough pop in his bat that pitchers are going to be reluctant to groove one in there.

Bringing up Arraez is a little tiresome, because of how it sparks the same tired arguments about how good or not good he is, but there is some usefulness in the comp here, because it highlights what could make Brooks Lee an effective player even without a ton of bat speed and maybe without taking tons of walks (I suspect Lee will take more walks and get fewer hits, but it'll even out somewhat). But Lee is also a fine defensive player at multiple positions, so even if he's not hitting over .300 and sustaining an OPS over .900 he can still be a very useful and effective player manning multiple spots in the infield and running a slash line like .275/.315/.400. I think there might be a little more in the tank for Lee as a hitter than that, which is why is nice to see him swinging the bat so well right now and getting good results.

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. 

I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

Analytics  are a buzzkill. I would rather have seen this piece as an explanation after regression kicks in. For now, I want to just enjoy a talented young player having some success.

Rocco quoted as saying Brooks is doing something every week to get better. Hoping Rocco isn’t around next week to see what Brooks is doing.

Well... 10 comments before we got the "let's fire Rocco" comment that has nothing to do with the article...

He feels comfortable at the plate & sees the ball well, that's a recipe for success & explains his eagerness. He's hot so the Twins need to take advantage of that & pair him up with Castro who's also hot (move Lee up the order). He's a MLB hitter, he'll adjust to what comes. A switch hitter who plays 3 valuable INF positions makes him very valuable.

Terrible having someone on the team that limits strikeouts and pop ups...hits for some power...and bats 25 points above the league average

10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. 

I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

Some of it has to do with luck. Nobody has the skill to have a .500 BABIP. Ty Cobb had a .383 career BABIP. Do you think Brooks Lee is a better hitter than Ty Cobb?

metrics schmetrics

Essentially, a lot of Lee’s contact lately has been falling into holes, landing just out of the reach of defenders, or squeaking through the infield. Those hits count the same in the box score, but things usually even out over time. Pitchers and defenses will adjust, and those seeing-eye grounders may turn into outs in the weeks ahead.  Another concern is Lee’s near-total lack of walks since the calendar turned to June. 

Hmm ... I don't watch entire games, but what I see/read of Lee's performances lately lines up with that analysis. Most of the hits do seem "just out of reach" of the fielders. But the biggest red flag for me is the lack of walks. That needs to change. Other than that, it's still a hopeful recent stretch for Lee, As others have already said, he's still young and learning the pro game. Let's hope for good days ahead. 

But the biggest red flag for me is the lack of walks. That needs to change.

Man, if he would have laid off that high outside fastball in the 8th last night, after a great AB with a lot of foul balls, that would have been special.

As it was, he struck out swinging on a 3-2 pitch and they threw out Keirsey at 2B attempting a steal.

Neither player got it done.  That's a big part of losing close games.

He's been better than Correa at 1/200 or less the cost. He might not be gold glove caliber yet but it's not unobtainable. I think he's only gonna get better too.

My projection of Lee was a second division infielder with a someday pop-up season that might get him an all-star game.  Not a guy to build around, but not a bad guy to keep around.  Seems right on so far.  Last year at this time, that's the description of what I considered the #2 prospect in the system after Jenkins.  I thought Keaschall was trending way upward and EmRod was overrated.

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

How long does the streak need to go before it is what it seems?

On 6/17/2025 at 10:02 PM, DJL44 said:

Some of it has to do with luck. Nobody has the skill to have a .500 BABIP. Ty Cobb had a .383 career BABIP. Do you think Brooks Lee is a better hitter than Ty Cobb?

I don’ have any regard for BABIP and the way it’s used to say this result and that result is due to bad luck.

Most of the SABR statistics are young, unproven by any scientific method and mislead about the abilities of the players they are evaluating. The most dubious are WAR, OAA, FIP, all of the so called advanced defensive metrics, launch angle, exit velocity are all based on dubious assumptions.

Bill James wrote an article in late 2021 reflectively concluding the WAR is a deeply flawed statistic. He used a very reasoned set of arguments to support his conclusion. He claimed that WAR should be WAG, i.e Wild Ass Guess.

I read one of the people that worked on OAA say that it needed more work. Carlos Correa, when asked about his low OAA a few years ago when he was playing brilliant defense, said, "of course my OAA is low, we have a fly ball staff."

Stats like OPS, OPS+ while much more palatable to me, are still biased statistics. Toward power hitters. They don’t take into account role on a team so a .400 OBP leadoff hitter with 6 HR doesn’t get the same credit as a .235 avg 30 HR hitter with a .300 OBP. The same statistic shouldn’t be applied to both hitters equally.

For what it's worth, Rod Carew had a BABIP of .408 in 1977. He had a magic wand and could place the ball intentionally, often, with bat and wrist manipulation. No luck. Just skill.

Ty Cobb’s career Batting average was, without running a z test or t test, statistically the same as his BABIP.