Unpacking the Methods of Rocco Baldelli’s Lineup Madness

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins have been remarkably consistent in their lineup construction against righties—but only in the top half of the order. What can we learn from these early looks?

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

If you’re in the “Players need consistency in the lineup to succeed” camp, you’re probably a little more satisfied with Rocco Baldelli’s lineups in 2025. At minimum, he’s run out the same top of the order every day against righty starters—Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach—though that alleged consistency hasn’t done much to help them as a group (note to Gregg: don’t let your bias show too strongly). [Note to readers: the foregoing note to Gregg was from Gregg, not your trusty editor. I keep telling him to just let his rampant bias flow.] {Note to editor: Can we please handle this in private? Greggory.}

Within that pattern is an encouraging development: all four are playing every day (other than Wallner and Larnach, against the one lefty starter that they’ve faced). The bottom five spots in the lineup have varied, but there’s been a level of consistency even there. Willi Castro has played every day, although sometimes it's been at second base, and other times at third. Ty France has started eight of nine games. Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez have alternated behind the plate, resulting in five starts for Jeffers and four for Vázquez.

Given the Twins’ limited bench, they have a narrow rotation in these lineups outside of the catcher spot. Most days, two of Jose Miranda (six starts), Harrison Bader (six), and Edouard Julien (five) will start, minus the odd start by Mickey Gasper (two, though one was in place of France at first). DaShawn Keirsey Jr. has not started a game this season.

At first glance, the back end of the lineup appears scattershot, only repeating one time in the first nine games (Games 1 and 3: Jeffers, France, Castro, Miranda, Bader). However, some “rules” emerge, if you’ve stared at the lineups as long as I have ahead of writing this. If you’ve ever done those brain teasers that go something like “Arrange these 5 boxes, the green and blue boxes can’t be next to each other, the red box and yellow box must be next to each other, etc.,” you’ll know what I’m talking about. And those rules probably inform us a bit on how Baldelli views his options (though let’s not get carried away; this is more a fun exercise than a research paper).

The Catchers (Jeffers and Vázquez)
At the beginning of the season, this was pretty straightforward. When Jeffers started, he hit 5th. When Vázquez started, he hit 9th. Jeffers has moved around a bit since the opening couple of series, as he’s now also hit 8th and 6th, but that can be explained by two of the below players. Vázquez is going to hit 9th whenever he starts. That’s pretty simple.

Ty France
France has only hit 5th or 6th, and there’s a pretty clear pattern as to which spot he hits in: if Jeffers is hitting 5th, France hits 6th. If Jeffers isn’t in that spot, then it’s France. The last four games that France has started, he’s hit 5th. He’s been spraying the ball all over the field, and even though he hasn’t been good this year (.520 OPS), he’s been better than many of the other hitters on this list, so his spot has held steady.

Willi Castro
Castro is one of three players (Buxton, Correa) to start all 10 Twins games, which includes the nine they’ve played versus righties thus far. He batted 7th the first four games, moved up to 6th (behind France) the next three, hit 5th the day France sat, and then dropped back down to 7th in the most recent game. His positioning can be attributed mostly to one factor: his handedness.

In lineups with only two lefty hitters (Wallner and Larnach), Castro will almost always hit 7th by default. He’s better against righties, so having him sandwiched between two righties protects him (and the team) from lefty relievers, though to a lesser extent than Wallner and Larnach. Having the three of them bat 1-4-7 spreads them out, and it’s a consistent pattern of Baldelli’s lineup construction over his tenure.

I’m relatively confident in this, because once Julien was added to the lineup (Games 4-8), Castro began hitting higher up, but then dropped back to 7th when Julien sat (with the exception of Game 4, when Jeffers hit 5th, bumping France to 6th, leaving Castro and Julien to hit 7th and 8th, because we already know the France and Jeffers rules). Castro has been hitting higher than Jeffers of late, as well, likely because he’s simply performed better, being one of the team’s most consistent hitters in this young season.

Harrison Bader
Bader has played a lot, and he’s leading the team in OPS—pushing up against 1.000, at .988 with three home runs. However, he’s been a weak hitter with a great glove for most of his career, relegating him to the bottom of the lineup, because you, I, and Baldelli all lack faith that he’ll continue to be the club’s most effective hitter. As such, he’s been relegated to the 9th spot—unless Vázquez starts. Then, he’s 8th. It’s a pretty simple rule.

Edouard Julien
Julien, the third true lefty when he starts, has been mostly relegated to the 7th spot, for the rule discussed in the Castro blurb—he’s a lefty. Spacing him, Wallner, and Larnach out with two righties between them protects the lineup. There was the game in which Jeffers pushed France, Castro, and Julien down, but the rule holds pretty consistent.

Jose Miranda
Fans are split on Miranda’s role and potential, but it seems that management isn’t. He got starts over Julien early in the season while the Canadian was dealing with the stomach flu, but he mostly hit 8th, even falling to 9th when Vázquez and Bader both sat. Miranda did hit 6th in the most recent game, but that was out of default by the rules discussed here: France hits 5th, Castro hits 7th without Julien, Bader hits 8th when Vázquez catches, because Vázquez always hits 9th.

Mickey Gasper
He hit 6th once and 8th once, and you can basically backtrack through the rules to figure out why. Game 8 was a little wonky, but if you look at it, it makes sense, given Jeffers's and Castro’s differing performance levels.

Now obviously, all of this will change over the season, or when Buxton and Correa aren’t in the lineup, or when Royce Lewis comes back and probably assumes the 5th spot. But it is a fun exercise to try to tease apart the lineup construction logic. Is it super meaningful? I’m skeptical, but it is something that a lot of people care about.

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How do you feel about the lineup construction early in the year? We’ve had a lot of games against righties already, so we’ve got a solid sample to choose from.

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[nicksaviking]

Still need more data points as they've only faced one left handed starter and it played out as expected; all right handed hitters, none of whom could get a hit off of future Hall of Famer Martin Perez.

Also still TBD on how valuable Baldelli thinks these guys are based on lineup position. He just bizarrely pinch ran for Wallner two days ago. So his leadoff hitter, the guy he's supposed to trust most to take quality at bats and get on base.

[CRF]

Wait...there's a method?

[umterp23]

No matter the lineup, is any opposing pitcher scared of this group? 

[Greggory Masterson]

2 minutes ago, CRF said:

Wait...there's a method?

The presence of a plan does not guarantee it's a good one

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

The presence of a plan does not guarantee it's a good one

You still have to put the crust down before the sauce and cheese even if they're all suboptimal ingredients (unless we are playing in Pittsburgh.)

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, CRF said:

Wait...there's a method?

For all the commotion about Baldelli being too analytical, I don't think he is in the slightest. All of his 'analytical' decisions are basically just old conventional baseball wisdom that is supported only by surface-level stats. Left handers can't hit left handed pitching. Trust veterans over young players. Pinch run your fastest player late in the game, no matter the score, number of outs or which hitter is standing on 1B.

There's no method here, he just does to the extreme what managers have been doing (often incorrectly) for a hundred years.

[Riverbrian]

I appreciate this article. 

Right or Wrong... the Twins will tell us how they rank players by utilization. It's important to watch. 

After watching utilization for the past few years... I'm pretty sure that Rocco locks in for the long haul. We will learn as the season progresses if he is still locked in.

Typically... there isn't much a higher ranked player can do to lose time and there is very little a lower ranked player can do to gain time... change adjustments are typically injury related. 

[Blyleven2011]

Still would like to see a castro or someone with speed ( castro stole bases in 2023 and we won the division )at the top of lineup and Wallner 4th or 5th , his bat seems to be heating up and if it does he can produce more rbi's  ... 

Put buxton in 2nd hole , larnach 3rd and drop Correa down to 6th until he gets his hitting going ...

Keirsey Jr not getting any starts perplexes me alittle  , time for a Buxton or Bader game off and Keirsey Jr in left or center , he needs some playing time or he'll rot on the bench ...

[Parfigliano]

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

For all the commotion about Baldelli being too analytical, I don't think he is in the slightest. All of his 'analytical' decisions are basically just old conventional baseball wisdom that is supported only by surface-level stats. Left handers can't hit left handed pitching. Trust veterans over young players. Pinch run your fastest player late in the game, no matter the score, number of outs or which hitter is standing on 1B.

There's no method here, he just does to the extreme what managers have been doing (often incorrectly) for a hundred years.

Rocco and the front office use analytics straight out of the 1970's.  They are dinosaurs.  Best thing for the team would be an asteroid strike.

[nicksaviking]

23 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Rocco and the front office use analytics straight out of the 1970's.  They are dinosaurs.  Best thing for the team would be an asteroid strike.

I'm not sure, I don't think they are fully on the same page. As this article points out, there may be some pre-game analytics used to explain the fluctuation of the bottom of the lineup. Likely a collaborative effort. 

But once decisions have to be made in real time, Baldelli just uses surface level insight to make his calls, which likely is straight out of 1970, but to make it modern, he doubles down on those efforts. If a young left handed hitter is up against a left handed pitcher, he's getting swapped out because that's what the numbers say. But Baldelli doesn't (or won't) take into consideration that his right handed pinch-hit option is Christian Vazquez, not Nelson Cruz. It's all the same to him. It's not 'what does Vazquez do against this pitcher, in this inning, with this many base runners, with this many outs, in this month', that's too complex and detailed. It's just simply, 'right handed hitters are better against left handed pitchers'.

[Patzky]

39 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Still would like to see a castro or someone with speed ( castro stole bases in 2023 and we won the division )at the top of lineup and Wallner 4th or 5th , his bat seems to be heating up and if it does he can produce more rbi's  ... 

Put buxton in 2nd hole , larnach 3rd and drop Correa down to 6th until he gets his hitting going ...

Keirsey Jr not getting any starts perplexes me alittle  , time for a Buxton or Bader game off and Keirsey Jr in left or center , he needs some playing time or he'll rot on the bench ...

Lee is up to St Paul.. perhaps he will take Keirsey s spot soon if not Gasper's.

[Patzky]

57 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Still would like to see a castro or someone with speed ( castro stole bases in 2023 and we won the division )at the top of lineup and Wallner 4th or 5th , his bat seems to be heating up and if it does he can produce more rbi's  ... 

Put buxton in 2nd hole , larnach 3rd and drop Correa down to 6th until he gets his hitting going ...

Keirsey Jr not getting any starts perplexes me alittle  , time for a Buxton or Bader game off and Keirsey Jr in left or center , he needs some playing time or he'll rot on the bench ...

Buxton leads off today, C4 to Fourth.

[Blyleven2011]

19 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Lee is up to St Paul.. perhaps he will take Keirsey s spot soon if not Gasper's.

Keirsey Jr has speed , he could be given a chance at top of order to spark things if he gets on base , he needs to bat , can't be any worse than what the line up has been , Lee comes up , gasser goes ...

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Keirsey Jr has speed , he could be given a chance at top of order to spark things if he gets on base , he needs to bat , can't be any worse than what the line up has been , Lee comes up , gasser goes ...

Or perhaps Julien..?

[Blyleven2011]

6 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Buxton leads off today, C4 to Fourth.

That is an uninspiring lineup for tonight  , c4 should be lower

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, Patzky said:

Or perhaps Julien..?

Yes Julian could get sent out too ...

Keirsey Jr has good defense , but really don't know much about his bat because rocco doesn't start him , he had a decent spring training with the bat , for what's it worth  ...

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

That is an uninspiring lineup for tonight  , c4 should be lower

Willi and Wallner having the night off makes it uninspiring more than the order to me 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure about "madness".  You want your best hitters at/near the top, your lesser hitters lower.  Being consistent with the top four (who are the best hitters the Twins have available, current performance aside) is what you want.  Jeffers and Castro should be the next two up, after that it really does not matter too much.  Riding the hot bat (Bader) to  a 5th/6th slot isn't necessarily a bad short-term decision either when 85% of your lineup is scuffling.

 

[Hubie29]

Does anyone else get a sick feeling about this team whenever they show Rocco on camera? 

[Guest]

I don't know why, but this reminded me of:

 

[tony&rodney]

Looking over the lineup for tonight's game ... oh my, oh my. Ragans has to focus on the task at hand, while the Twins need to visit a chapel ahead of their work day.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if they also try to match according to the kinds of pitches they expect to see. Is it random when Bader or Miranda are in against right handed pitching or are they selected based on the pitcher’s arsenal? Maybe it is defense. Do they go with Bader if they expect more fly balls?

[jkcarew]

In his lineup construction he is platoon obsessed vs left-handed starters. And obsessed with alternating right-handed bats with left-handed bats when facing righties. The latter is laughabley ironic, since he aggressively pulls the left-handed bats when a lefty enters the game regardless.

The only ‘new’ thing he does is…he’s willing to put low OBP, high ISO guys in the leadoff spot.

Whatever you want to call his lineup construction approaches, they’re a triumph of sparkling brilliance compared to his in-game decision-making.

[Whitey333]

Well for all the analytics and stats used to make up the lineup, it doesn't appear to be working too well so far.  They are near the bottom in MLB in many offensive stats.  My god they are 3-7 and two of those wins were against the White Sox.  But that's all right.  They keep telling us it's early.  I know this may seem strange but I did some research today and found out the wins and losses do count in March and April.  For all the hype they preach about the Twins they still have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years.  I think we are being shown that they just are an average team.

[T.O.]

4 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Does anyone else get a sick feeling about this team whenever they show Rocco on camera? 

Yes. I have to look away.

[DocBauer]

Frankly, I'm a little surprised by most of the comments I'm reading here. This seems to be a collection of "I'm frustrated by poor production so far so I'm going to lash out," or "Well I don't like Rocco so I'm going to lash out", or a combination of both. 

I'm no Rocco apologist as I don't like everything he does. But the common approach, more and more in MLB these days, is to get as many PA/AB for your best players as possible. Further, there's a lot of posters who clamor for a "set lineup", which really doesn't exist anywhere. Guys get hurt. Guys go in to slumps. Guys take days off. For the entirety of MLB, managers alter their lineups depending on these factors as well matchups.

Wallner is a powerplant with a career OB% of .368! And a career OPS of .867! But he's a bad choice as one of the Twins best hitters not to get the most PA/AB? Correa is an All Star caliber player with a .353 OB and .822 OPS. Buxton's career numbers are varied due to his injuries. He's never been a good OB guy, but has a career filled with 5 seasons of an OPS above .800. I like Larnach in the 4 spot and he really matured in 2024.

The fact that hardly anyone is producing at a decent level doesn't change the fact that the general top 4 of the lineup is incorrect. They are batting the best 4 bats on the team in the top 4 spots.

Now, I'd RATHER have someone like Keaschall...if and when he arrives and turns out to be the player we all think and hope he will be...take over the leadoff spot and allow Wallner's power and OPS to be in more of an RBI spot, but Keaschall hasn't arrived yet.

A healthy Lewis also changes the depth of the lineup. Lee might also change the depth and dynamics of the lineup when back, and hopefully starting to reach his potential, instead of a struggling Miranda or Julien.

Rocco is putting his current best 4 hitters are the top of the lineup. The fact that they aren't producing right now to ability doesn't mean the lineup is wrong. Lewis at 5, Jeffers and France...especially if France is even close to his previous self based on a good ST and some decent early results...and Castro who's doing well, makes the whole lineup different 6-8.

Regardless of struggles, the primary lineup being used is the correct one. The bottom half is a bit of a mess with the current roster no doubt. But Lewis and hopefully Lee start to change that in the coming weeks. But what better version of the lineup could be had with the way the roster sits right now?

[LambchoP]

The lineup construction really doesn't matter when none of our guys can hit anyways. So far it looks like Julien and Gasper need to go. At least Lee and Lewis will replace them. Of course we're still stuck with France and free swinging Miranda. Offense as a whole needs a major shake up this off-season.