Battle of the Arms: Has Zebby Matthews Overtaken David Festa?

[Cody Christie]

Zebby Matthews and David Festa are both critical to the Minnesota Twins’ long-term success. However, Matthews seems to be on an upward trajectory this spring. Is it enough to surpass Festa?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins’ pitching arms are once again under the microscope, and many eyes have been on Zebby Matthews and David Festa this spring. With Matthews lighting it up in spring training and showing an uptick in velocity that’s catching many by surprise, the narrative is shifting. But does his breakout performance mean he has now surpassed Festa in the eyes of the organization? 

A Spark of Change: Matthews’ Breakout
Matthews was the talk of spring training for the Twins. After starting last season at High-A, his progression was meteoric. His offseason work has paid dividends, with increased velocity and impressive numbers. Across 9 1/3 innings, he allowed zero runs on four hits with a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There’s a buzz that he could dominate early in the season if his current form translates to the Triple-A level. This projected performance is the culmination of steady development that is a testament to the Twins’ pitching and development pipeline.

“Everybody is talented in the big leagues,” Matthews told reporters this spring. “You have to live with the mistakes once you get up there and still be able to carry the confidence -- trusting your stuff. All those players I grew up watching at a young age. Just trust in your abilities, knowing you belong in the same field as them.”

The upswing in Matthews’ performance isn’t only about raw power. His command and composure on the mound have caught the attention of the Twins’ coaches. Last season, Matthews averaged 94.9 mph with his four-seamer, and that number has been closer to 97 mph this spring. Adding this extra velocity will make his entire pitch mix play up, especially for a player known for pinpoint control. The excitement surrounding Matthews is palpable, and rightly so.

A Rocky Spring: Festa’s Struggles
On the flip side, Festa enters this season with a cloud over his head. Last season, Festa entered the year as arguably the highest-ranked prospect in the Twins system. At Double- and Triple-A, he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a 30.1 K%. However, this spring has been a testing period for him. In a bid to reinvent his approach and get even better against right-handed hitters, Festa tinkered with his mechanics, adopting a new arm slot and introducing a sinker into his repertoire. The on-field results have been disastrous, as he has allowed 15 earned runs on 19 hits in 11 1/3 innings.  

The idea behind these adjustments was sound, including diversifying his pitch arsenal and refining his delivery, but the results haven’t come as swiftly or convincingly as hoped. St. Paul is also a hitter-friendly park, which could impact his early season numbers as he tries to establish himself at Triple-A. With the new changes still in their infancy, Festa’s performance has been inconsistent, and there’s concern that these adjustments may temporarily hamper the consistency he had established in previous seasons.

The Pros and Cons: A Closer Look
Entering last season, Twins Daily had Festa ranked as the team’s number-five prospect, while Matthews barely cracked the top 20. A lot has changed over the last calendar year. Matthews has all the flash: increased velocity, improved mechanics, and the kind of spring training numbers that hint at him building off his breakout 2024 season. There’s a genuine belief that he’s now ready to take on Triple-A challenges and perhaps even more. 

“Zebby is a good-looking young horse of a man,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “He has the body and the good repeatable delivery. He is a very good strike-thrower with good stuff. Now he has some Major League time and experience to fall back on and think about as he moves forward.”

However, it’s not all roses for Matthews, with one concern being an increased workload. With a pitcher making a big leap, there’s always the risk that the player might not be quite ready for the increased workload of higher-level competition. In the 2024 season, he pitched 134 2/3 innings, an increase from the 105 1/3 innings he tossed in 2023. Additionally, while his velocity is a huge asset, it remains to be seen whether he can maintain that speed and control over the long haul. A breakout in spring is exciting, but baseball is a long season, and consistency is the name of the game.

Meanwhile, Festa still has the pedigree of being one of the team's top prospects. He had more success than Matthews at the big-league level last season, and he clearly has a willingness to innovate by adjusting his arm slot and adding a sinker. Yet, the transition period has exposed some vulnerabilities. His control has suffered at times, and right-handed batters, particularly, are capitalizing on his adjustments this spring.

The reality for the Twins is that both pitchers have unique strengths that could be critical throughout the season. In today’s game, a one-dimensional pitching staff is a luxury no team can afford. Matthews’ explosive stuff and the potential to command a high velocity make him a dynamic piece of the puzzle. His development is a bright spot, suggesting that the Twins successfully cultivate raw talent into a big-league starter.

Conversely, Festa’s experience and strategic adjustments might not have paid off immediately, but they indicate a willingness to evolve. In a long season where every arm is valuable, Festa could rebound as his new mechanics settle in. His ability to generate ground balls with his sinker (once fully refined) could be an invaluable asset, particularly against right-handed hitters who posted a .769 OPS against him in the minors last season. 

Ultimately, the Twins are not in a position to choose between the two because they need both pitchers in 2025. The contrast between Matthews’ meteoric rise and Festa’s transitional period illustrates players' different paths to reach their potential. Both will have critical roles, and as the season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how their respective journeys contribute to the Twins’ success.

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Has Matthews surpassed Festa in the eyes of the Twins? Which player has the higher ceiling? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

When the time comes (it will) which ever one is doing best should be next man up to MLB.

[High heat]

Well Festa started opening day for the saints and didn’t give up any runs.  Not a bad start to the season. 
 

[Linus]

It’s exciting to have good pitching prospects but the only thing that matters is how they do against mlb hitters. So as far as making comparisons Thats the only one that matters (to me anyway).

[Otaknam]

Matthews’ rise is very good news. The Twins don’t have an ace, like a Verlander type, who can be trusted to stop a losing streak. Matthews probably isn’t an ace, but he likely can be at least another number 3 starter, like Ryan, Ober, and Lopez. Still, I hope someone emerges as at least a very strong number 2, because it’s unlikely the team can make a serious playoff run without a top of the rotation guy. Right now they don’t have that, just a handful of number 3s, which isn’t bad for the regular season, but not the best for the playoffs.

[Fatbat]

Paddack may end up in the bullpen and Matthews in the rotation. Sept/oct might even see Festa in the bullpen. Depth is nice to have. 

[mikelink45]

Too early for that judgment. We need to see how the season plays out. Injuries and trades will make the decision. 

[rdehring]

Don't know who will finish 2025 as the better prospect/pitcher.  My hope is that both will have fantastic first halves and pitch the second half for the Twins.  That would enable them to move on from both Paddack and Lopez.  Don't know what has happened to Pedro, but he doesn't seem to be the near ACE he was two years ago.  Keep thinking that this duo just might pitch as well as Pedro/Paddack in 2025 and better for a long time in the future.  

Yes, I know the season is only two games old, but there was nothing little I saw on the field that gives me hope that this is going to be a good season.  Made that change because I liked what I saw from Larnach and Castro's bats and Buxton in center field.  Also thought Ryan had a good start yesterday, although he maybe allowed a few too many baserunners. 

What I did like was the Cardinals.  A couple mature hitters at the top of their lineup who do what they are expected to with runners on base.  Add a few young guys at the bottom that can run and create havoc doing so.  Also loved their overall team defense.  Heck of a team that appears to be in the middle of retooling.

[jorgenswest]

Why does it matter? Both will get chances. The first opportunity will not be based on an overtaking or ranking. It will depend on which pitcher’s schedule fits the Twins need in that moment. A few years ago the Twins had Ober and Varland in AAA with a need for a starter. Varland was chosen over Ober. The decision wasn’t based on an overtaking or ranking. Varland’s pitching schedule matched up with the opening better.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Matthews’ rise is very good news. The Twins don’t have an ace, like a Verlander type, who can be trusted to stop a losing streak. Matthews probably isn’t an ace, but he likely can be at least another number 3 starter, like Ryan, Ober, and Lopez. Still, I hope someone emerges as at least a very strong number 2, because it’s unlikely the team can make a serious playoff run without a top of the rotation guy. Right now they don’t have that, just a handful of number 3s, which isn’t bad for the regular season, but not the best for the playoffs.

The Twins have 3 starters ranked in the top 26.  i'm not saying they are aces, but they are not #3 starters.

[Rufus]

The Twins seems to have a plethora of up and coming arms right now,  which is good.  They are all reaching their mid 20's.  Why not package a a couple for a up and coming 1st baseman type?   The big team really could use some additional consistent offensive punch.

[BSLinPA]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Don't know who will finish 2025 as the better prospect/pitcher.  My hope is that both will have fantastic first halves and pitch the second half for the Twins.  That would enable them to move on from both Paddack and Lopez.  Don't know what has happened to Pedro, but he doesn't seem to be the near ACE he was two years ago.  Keep thinking that this duo just might pitch as well as Pedro/Paddack in 2025 and better for a long time in the future.  

Yes, I know the season is only two games old, but there was nothing little I saw on the field that gives me hope that this is going to be a good season.  Made that change because I liked what I saw from Larnach and Castro's bats and Buxton in center field.  Also thought Ryan had a good start yesterday, although he maybe allowed a few too many baserunners. 

What I did like was the Cardinals.  A couple mature hitters at the top of their lineup who do what they are expected to with runners on base.  Add a few young guys at the bottom that can run and create havoc doing so.  Also loved their overall team defense.  Heck of a team that appears to be in the middle of retooling.

Pedro Lopez?????  

[Exiled in Illinois]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

The Twins seems to have a plethora of up and coming arms right now,  which is good.  They are all reaching their mid 20's.  Why not package a a couple for a up and coming 1st baseman type?   The big team really could use some additional consistent offensive punch.

We don't need to trade for a up and coming 1st baseman type, we already have one (Lewis).  Just need to convince him,  and then get him ready to play there in 2026.  Too late to make that change now, will have to hope France comes through till then.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Don't know who will finish 2025 as the better prospect/pitcher.  My hope is that both will have fantastic first halves and pitch the second half for the Twins.  That would enable them to move on from both Paddack and Lopez.  Don't know what has happened to Pedro, but he doesn't seem to be the near ACE he was two years ago.  Keep thinking that this duo just might pitch as well as Pedro/Paddack in 2025 and better for a long time in the future.  

Yes, I know the season is only two games old, but there was nothing little I saw on the field that gives me hope that this is going to be a good season.  Made that change because I liked what I saw from Larnach and Castro's bats and Buxton in center field.  Also thought Ryan had a good start yesterday, although he maybe allowed a few too many baserunners. 

What I did like was the Cardinals.  A couple mature hitters at the top of their lineup who do what they are expected to with runners on base.  Add a few young guys at the bottom that can run and create havoc doing so.  Also loved their overall team defense.  Heck of a team that appears to be in the middle of retooling.

Not sure what happened to Pedro either ……. Pablo gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings without great command. That’s not an outing to be concerned about.

Ryan gave up 1 earned run through 5 innings in his first MLB start after arm injury - great result!

Unless Zebby or Festa can HIT, they probably won’t be needed anytime soon. The OFFENSE has been pathetic through 18 innings. Top 3 in line-up maybe have 1 hit over roughly 24 AB’s…….. that needs to change this afternoon! Pitchers will give up runs - we gotta score!!

I like that Matthews is throwing a little harder - he’s now above average - that’s a big deal. I’m not as impressed with his walk rate as others - low walk rate doesn’t necessarily = “pin point command” per what the writer above eludes to Zebby having. He throws the ball over the plate - that’s not pin point control. As he gains experience at higher levels he’ll get more refined. Sometimes it’s good to throw the ball just off the plate - “competitive” pitches out of the zone. Gotta mix it up with MLB hitters - can’t pound the zone 75-80% of the time.

Both guys have nice upsides & looking forward to early success at AAA - I don’t see Lopez getting traded prior to the last year of his deal - 2.5 seasons from now.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

The Twins seems to have a plethora of up and coming arms right now,  which is good.  They are all reaching their mid 20's.  Why not package a a couple for a up and coming 1st baseman type?   The big team really could use some additional consistent offensive punch.

All Winter I had hoped for Duran + Morris or Adams in trade to Red Sox for Tristan Casas as our new 1B. “Could really use some offensive punch”!

Could also move Matt Wallner to 5th-6th spot in the line-up where he belongs!!

Other option is keep those guys and Royce Lewis or Keaschall take over 1B with Brooks Lee growing into 3B……….works too, right?

[Cory Engelhardt]

They’ll both be up at some point. Excited to see them

[Rosterman]

Matthews is a definite rotation arm, and throwing 130+ innings last season means he is ready for a full-season of worjk this year, fer sure.

Festa will be given anothe chance to be a rotation arm, probably the first up for that double-deaer play, or if a roster move is made. It will be up to him to cement a mid-rotation spot, or eventually become a bullpen arm... which is where he should excel if he wishes to go that route.

And then we have Lewis and a couple of others on the verge. Which means the Twins have to make a hard decision on who to keep longer term - Ober, Ryan or Lopez. They have to tie up Ryan or Ober sometime during this season. I would suspect Ryan would walk and just play out his Twins time if not offered a contract. And that also means the Twins, depending on the the standings, would have to be in a position to trade any of the guys they may not extend. Like the Guardians, the Twins seem to be in a situation now where they can move players as they come close to the end of their arbitration years, as there are others on the verge.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Matthews’ rise is very good news. The Twins don’t have an ace, like a Verlander type, who can be trusted to stop a losing streak. Matthews probably isn’t an ace, but he likely can be at least another number 3 starter, like Ryan, Ober, and Lopez. Still, I hope someone emerges as at least a very strong number 2, because it’s unlikely the team can make a serious playoff run without a top of the rotation guy. Right now they don’t have that, just a handful of number 3s, which isn’t bad for the regular season, but not the best for the playoffs.

Ryan, Ober and Lopez were all top 40 starting pitchers last year. Last I checked there were 30 mlb teams, so while we can debate defining “ace” if we need to debate what a number 3 starter is, I’ve lost what little faith in the internet I once held…

[bean5302]

157 pitchers with 80+ innings last year. Rank in ERA. Divide by 30 to get rotation spot.
0-30 = #1. Nobody
31-60 = #2. Joe Ryan #57
61-90 = #3. Bailey Ober #86, Pablo Lopez #90 (both at the very back edge of #3, both obvious Cy Young candidates around here)
91-120 = #4. Simeon Woods Richardson #93
121+ = #5. Chris Paddack #133

[bean5302]

Festa is working on his mechanics and feel for his new pitch so if a callup was needed today, I expect the call would go to Zebby Matthews. 

In terms of the two pitchers, Festa was a lot more effective than Matthews last year, but with just 3 pitches, all of which grade out as average MLB caliber, Festa's ceiling was probably #4. Matthews has more pitches, but execution limited his value. With the added velo, Matthews might be into that mid rotation starter potential now, but as of last year and what they had, Festa looked like a more solid bet as a back end arm. 

I expect both Matthews and Festa to pass SWR in the depth chart by year end.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

157 pitchers with 80+ innings last year. Rank in ERA. Divide by 30 to get rotation spot.
0-30 = #1. Nobody
31-60 = #2. Joe Ryan #57
61-90 = #3. Bailey Ober #86, Pablo Lopez #90 (both at the very back edge of #3, both obvious Cy Young candidates around here)
91-120 = #4. Simeon Woods Richardson #93
121+ = #5. Chris Paddack #133

ERA is subject to errors. The Twins were butchers in the field last year, yet they only committed 70 errors, ranked 28 third fewest errors in the league, while also ranked dead last in UZR 150. They had so few errors because they all just stood out there like statues.

meanwhile Ryan ranked 8th in WHIP and 32 in WAR, Ober 9th in WHIP and 37th in WAR, and Lopez 47th in WHIP 29 in WAR. It’s good to limit base runners and throw a lot of innings, isn’t it?

[Twins GFP]

Splitting hairs here.  Both are relatively upper end pitching prospects.  Both will be given opportunities.  All that matters is the MLB results.

[Rufus]

3 hours ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

We don't need to trade for a up and coming 1st baseman type, we already have one (Lewis).  Just need to convince him,  and then get him ready to play there in 2026.  Too late to make that change now, will have to hope France comes through till then.

Yeah if he ever stays healthy.  He so far has not shown that he is willing to change positions. I am beginning to question his overall makeup.  But of course I am not in the clubhouse.  One thing I will give Sano and I am sure it hurt his career is he was always willing to change positions to help the team,  He went from 3rd to left to 3rd to 1st and listened to fans and writers critique his defense. Had to be hard to keep his mind on the game. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

ERA is subject to errors. The Twins were butchers in the field last year, yet they only committed 70 errors, ranked 28 third fewest errors in the league, while also ranked dead last in UZR 150. They had so few errors because they all just stood out there like statues.

meanwhile Ryan ranked 8th in WHIP and 32 in WAR, Ober 9th in WHIP and 37th in WAR, and Lopez 47th in WHIP 29 in WAR. It’s good to limit base runners and throw a lot of innings, isn’t it?

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all established veterans. The woulda, coulda, shoulda in their game has been established. Lopez, Ober and Ryan are all 3.90 ERA career guys, and they're all at the end of their prime. Both Ryan and Ober have gotten results in line with their FIPs, Lopez is usually worse than his advanced metrics.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all established veterans. The woulda, coulda, shoulda in their game has been established. Lopez, Ober and Ryan are all 3.90 ERA career guys, and they're all at the end of their prime. Both Ryan and Ober have gotten results in line with their FIPs, Lopez is usually worse than his advanced metrics.

 

OK.  Calling Lopez, Ryan, and Ober #3's at best, would indicate that you would find at least 30 pitchers in the American League (15 #1's, and 15 #2's) that you would rather have on your team than any of them.  Sorry.  I can't come up with a list that long, so for me I'll call them better than that.  YMMV.

[twinstalker]

I don't know what it means to "overtake" or if it matters.  Foremost, Zebby has been the better prospect for a year now.  Second, there are reasons to leave Zebby down at AAA for a good chunk of time this year, so a healthy Festa will get the call first unless the actual day plays into it.

Zebby has to succeed at AAA for a period of time before he gets a call-up.  He wasn't ready for the majors last year, and so they won't skip AAA this year as they mostly needed to last year.

[DocBauer]

A well written article Cody. But does it matter if one may or may not have passed the other? They are both very exciting young arms. 

Matthews needs to learn to pitch out of the zone a little more as your zone control can be "too good" and ML hitters will wait to tattoo a ball. But the pure stuff and control is there to be very good. His body types would seem to indicate the potential to maintain velocity.

Festa has good enough stuff to do OK with 3 pitches. But a 4th offering takes his game up another notch. And the new sinker, and some arm slot adjustments, just might be what he needs. ST was about trying those new things. I think some forget that at times a pitcher, especially a young one working on changes, might be told to throw a certain number of a certain pitch a certain number of times in an appearance, or even an inning. The staff isn't worried about winning the game, they're wanting to see the new pitch, or arm slot, or both. It's the building up, not immediate results.

Festa had a great debut, but I don't know what he was throwing. Ideally, both are performing to expectations and who comes up next/first is likely to be determined by their slot in the Saints rotation.

It's a tremendous "conundrum" as to which top young arm you bring up first. But still, let's not forget how good of a 2024 Morris had, or how good his ST was, even in SSS. And let's not forget Lewis was actually the MILB pitcher of the year in 2023, but was slowed early in '24. And then there's Adams, on the 40 man, possibly destined for the pen, but coming off a really good 2nd half of '24. ALL of them might be up before Raya simply due to the slow and dutiful build up he's going through.

This is a nice "problem" to have that i can't recall happening any other time in all my decades of watching the Twins.