Will Great Outfield Defense Be a Calling Card of the 2025 Minnesota Twins?

[Eric Blonigen]

When you allow the fourth-highest rate of balls in the air in baseball, you need some great outfield defense. The 2024 Twins season was a lesson in what happens when you can’t make the tricky (or not-so-tricky) plays in the grass. Will 2025 be better?

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

During Saturday’s spring training game, Byron Buxton made a couple of great catches in center, preventing two would-be extra-base hits by Jarren Duran. Offseason pickup Harrison Bader was cheering him on. In a media scrum following the game, Rocco Baldelli joined that chorus.

“Yeah, he's still a great defender. I think everyone in the ballpark really enjoyed watching that today," Baldelli said. "I think Harrison Bader in right field might have enjoyed it more than anyone else … Watching those guys run around out there together, making plays like that will fire the other one up in a lot of ways, and [they] take an exceptional amount of pride in the way that they play defense.”

When was the last time the Twins made outfield defense a true priority? It might have been 2017. Let’s get in the time machine.

“Nothing falls but raindrops”
Back in 2017, the Minnesota Twins outfield consisted mainly of Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario. They liked to say that when they were in the field, nothing fell but raindrops. Buxton and Kepler were, at that moment in their young careers, perhaps the best at each of their positions in the league. Rosario was a bit more erratic, sometimes taking odd routes or getting late breaks, but he had a strong arm and ample enthusiasm. They racked up 28 Defensive Runs Saved as a group that year.

Let’s come back to the present. During the 2024 stretch run (collapse), the outfield defense was… not great. All too often, the Twins trotted out some amalgamation of Willi Castro, Austin Martin, Manuel Margot, and Kepler. Collectively, that group saved 23 fewer runs than average fielders would have. Using the sabermetric shorthand that 10 marginal runs gain or lose a marginal win, that quartet cost the Twins a minimum of two wins with lousy leatherwork, and it could be closer to three. Of course, there were also ample innings for both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and both were average fielders last season, but not even Buxton counterbalanced the poor work of the others.

Looking Ahead to 2025
Subtracting Margot and Kepler; with Martin likely to land in Triple A; and with fewer outfield opportunities for Castro, what could 2025 hold from an outfield defense standpoint? Looking at the 2025 roster, we know that Buxton and Bader figure to play a ton. It’s also safe to assume that Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach will see most of their time in the corners, with limited innings available for others. What can we expect to see from this group?

The Regulars
These four outfielders are expected to receive the majority of playing time at the three positions. 

• Harrison Bader was worth 10 DRS in center. Getting some play in the corners, he’s a good bet to top his 2024 totals.
• Byron Buxton contributed 4 DRS in center. Coming into 2025 completely healthy for the first time in what feels like forever, he should also be that good again.
• Trevor Larnach suffered from turf toe for most of the 2024 season, and it’s reasonable to expect that that impacted his sprint speed (and therefore, his range) in left field. While he will likely never be a plus defender, could he take a small step forward on defense and be worth, say, a couple of runs? Probably.
• Matt Wallner, if he can stay average, we'll call that a win.

On the Farm

• Emmanuel Rodriguez seems all but certain to make his major-league debut in 2025. To date, he has been almost exclusively a center fielder. FanGraphs has a 60 grade on him as a fielder, and that likely plays up if he’s in a corner spot. If he makes his debut around midseason, he will likely be a positive on defense, although advanced defensive metrics aren’t publicly available for minor-league play. So, it’s tough to quantify exactly what fans can expect from him.
• Austin Martin will play a role, whether it's right away or not. While 2024 did not go according to plan offensively or (especially) defensively, he has been working on his outfield chops all offseason.
  
  “It's been an area of focus for him. It's something that we've spoken with him about at reasonable length," Baldelli said of his young player. "And he knows it's something we want to see out of him, and it’s going to help him become a better, more [well-]rounded ball player. And he has the athleticism for it, and he has the work ethic for it.”
  
  On a player with 75th-percentile sprint speed, Baldelli is not wrong to have at least a little optimism.
• DaShawn Keirsey would be the other outfielder who could see extended play in 2025, and he should be a plus defender, too.

There's a chance, if things break right, that the 2025 Twins get 20 DRS or so from their outfield. Compared to 2024, that’s likely to be a four-win swing, on outfield defense alone. In 2024, four wins would have made the difference between making the playoffs, and the offseason of discontent we all experienced. Turning a defensive weakness into a strength in one season is an enticing premise.

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This 2025 season has a lot to be optimistic about — do you agree that the outfield defense could be one of those things? Comment below!

John Bonnes contributed to reporting from spring training.

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[Parfigliano]

I would rather Buxton stay healthy all year as opposed to trying to run through walls/diving to make highlight catches for 1 out then being injured for 3 months.

[ryanking61]

I just hope they are smart with wild man Buxton out there, this team cannot afford to lose him as he's slamming into the wall or the ground 

[NYCTK]

Still laughing at the ridiculous assertion that Austin Martin can just work harder and somehow become a better outfielder. That implies he hasn't worked hard the other thousand innings he's been out there. 

Matt Wallner should be expected to be far worse than average. Hope his defensive liability is small but he's nit going to be average. 

But this is the reason I was so happy to see the Twins hire Bader and the singular reason anyone fighting against it was just wrong. 

[RpR]

You either use Buxton's superior fielding, or he is no better than any other player, and Bader would be better.

People get hurt, life sucks, (this is from a person who has spent months in the hospital after busting himself up)  so deal with it.

[jmlease1]

Larnach isn't bad in LF when he's healthy; last season he was not healthy. He was quite good in limited time in 2022, so he might be able to get back to that if his legs are good.

Margot was shockingly bad last season, so there's definitely some addition by subtraction, and for all that Kepler has historically been excellent in RF, that really hasn't been true for the last 2 seasons. So less of a loss there.

Bader is certainly a plus, and if the Twins are able to deploy him the way they had hoped to use Michael A. Taylor a couple of years ago, that could really ramp things up: giving Buxton a break, defensive replacement in one of the corners when it's close & late, spelling Larnach/Wallner against LHP...that really could improve the D in the OF quite a bit.

It certainly should be an improvement over last season, but a lot depends on health.

[Karbo]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Still laughing at the ridiculous assertion that Austin Martin can just work harder and somehow become a better outfielder. That implies he hasn't worked hard the other thousand innings he's been out there. 

Matt Wallner should be expected to be far worse than average. Hope his defensive liability is small but he's nit going to be average. 

But this is the reason I was so happy to see the Twins hire Bader and the singular reason anyone fighting against it was just wrong. 

I think Martin really needs some more innings in the OF. He grew up playing IF, so he's got to learn stuff like routes and where to throw in. He may not ever be a gold glover but with more experience I can see him better than avg. with his speed.

[NYCTK]

16 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I think Martin really needs some more innings in the OF. He grew up playing IF, so he's got to learn stuff like routes and where to throw in. He may not ever be a gold glover but with more experience I can see him better than avg. with his speed.

No. He has plenty of experience. He's just bad. Maybe he can be only really bad instead of unbearably bad? But he's going to be bad, despite what Rocco says. 

I think the Twins are at the point where they're basically admitting he has no place with the team. Take the under on 250 PAs for him, and I'd take the under on 175. I said during the offseason that he'd fail to reach 1000 in his career, and I think that's being too kind to him now. 

[bean5302]

If we reversed the projections on Larnach and Wallner, I think I mostly agree. Both Buxton and Bader have long injury histories, and honestly, Larnach has his own durability issue history.

Buxton will not play more than 60-80 games in CF this year. It's just not going to happen. Bader probably will miss 50 games this year based on recent seasons. If Bader is out at the same time Buxton is out, which is fairly likely, we'll see a substantial drop off in CF defense.

Bader last 4 seasons injury history
2021 - April 1 - 10 Day IL - Strained forearm, Missed 4 weeks
2021 - May 25 - 10 Day IL - Hairline rib fracture, missed 6 weeks
2022 - June 27 - 10 Day IL -> 60 Day IL - Right foot plantar fasciitis, missed 3 months
2023 - March 30 - 10 Day IL - Left oblique strain, missed 5 weeks
2023 - May 30 - 10 Day IL - Right hamstring strain, missed 3 weeks
2023 - Sep 18 - 10 Day IL - Right groin strain, missed 2 weeks
2024 - July 24 - Day to Day - Mild ankle sprain, missed 1 week.

Overall, I think the OF defense for the Twins will be good this year, but how good will depend a lot on Buxton. Bader's going to play a lot. If Buxton defies all the odds and has another year like last year, Bader's going to be covering a lot of corner OF time and defense should be pretty epic.

[tony&rodney]

The outfield defense will be better in 2026.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not against having a good outfield defense, I just don't think it should come at the expense of a good offense.

How many fewer balls per week actually land for hits if you have a good defense compared to merely an OK defense? One? Maybe two? 

It just doesn't make up for the lack of extra hits and runs you give up by prioritizing a better offense.

Go ahead, put together a good defensive outfield, but also make sure it's a good offensive outfield. That should forever and always be the priority.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not against having a good outfield defense, I just don't think it should come at the expense of a good offense.

How many fewer balls per week actually land for hits if you have a good defense compared to merely an OK defense? One? Maybe two? 

It just doesn't make up for the lack of extra hits and runs you give up by prioritizing a better offense.

Go ahead, put together a good defensive outfield, but also make sure it's a good offensive outfield. That should forever and always be the priority.

The best Batting Run Value in baseball last year was Aaron Judge at 97. The worst was Brandon Drury at -25. The best Fielding Run Value in baseball last year was Patrick Bailey at 22. The worst was Nick Castellanos at -14. The best Baserunning Run Value in baseball last year was Corbin Carroll at 12. The worst was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at -6.

These are absolutely not exact science numbers that should be used as proof positive of anything, but the people at Baseball Savant and Statcast are real smart and have a lot of really high-tech gadgets they're using to put this stuff together. I think they're good numbers to give rough ideas on how valuable each phase of the game is to offensive players, though. I'll leave it to you and others to decide how much weight everyone feels needs to be given to defense vs offense. 

I'll mention that the best Outs Above Average in baseball last year was Andres Gimenez with 21. The worst was CJ Abrams at -17. If we just do outfield like this article is talking about the best was Jacob Young at 19 and worst was Bryan Reynolds at -13. That's a 32-out difference between the best and the worst outfield defenders in baseball last year. I believe the MLB season is about 27 weeks long. So, just over 1 out per week difference between the very best and the very worst. Call it 3 and a half outs, or round up to 4 if you want, per week for an outfield of 3 of Bryan Reynolds vs an outfield of 3 of Jacob Young. Do what you want with this info.

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The best Batting Run Value in baseball last year was Aaron Judge at 97. The worst was Brandon Drury at -25. The best Fielding Run Value in baseball last year was Patrick Bailey at 22. The worst was Nick Castellanos at -14. The best Baserunning Run Value in baseball last year was Corbin Carroll at 12. The worst was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at -6.

These are absolutely not exact science numbers that should be used as proof positive of anything, but the people at Baseball Savant and Statcast are real smart and have a lot of really high-tech gadgets they're using to put this stuff together. I think they're good numbers to give rough ideas on how valuable each phase of the game is to offensive players, though. I'll leave it to you and others to decide how much weight everyone feels needs to be given to defense vs offense. 

I'll mention that the best Outs Above Average in baseball last year was Andres Gimenez with 21. The worst was CJ Abrams at -17. If we just do outfield like this article is talking about the best was Jacob Young at 19 and worst was Bryan Reynolds at -13. That's a 32-run difference between the best and the worst outfield defenders in baseball last year. I believe the MLB season is about 27 weeks long. So, just over 1 out per week difference between the very best and the very worst. Call it 3 and a half outs, or round up to 4 if you want, per week for an outfield of 3 of Bryan Reynolds vs an outfield of 3 of Jacob Young. Do what you want with this info.

In regards to the game of baseball. This is one of the most important posts ever posted. 

I rank it right after... It's a dial not a switch. 

[Brett]

If any of Buxton/Wallner/Larnach/Bader gets hurt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keirsey get the call instead of Martin. Or to see one of them get traded if Rodriguez looks healthy.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Brett said:

If any of Buxton/Wallner/Larnach/Bader gets hurt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keirsey get the call instead of Martin. Or to see one of them get traded if Rodriguez looks healthy.

Who knows what will happen but I'm guessing that Martin breaks camp with the club. Lee starts in AAA.

 

[Major League Ready]

It will be a very good defensive OF when Rodriquez arrives.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Do what you want with this info.

Thanks, it will likely be the same thing I'm always doing though; stump for more offense.

Also, hahahaha, of course it was the dreadful White Sox that signed Brandon Drury!

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The outfield defense will be better in 2026.

No Margot is a big defensive improvement.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

How many fewer balls per week actually land for hits if you have a good defense compared to merely an OK defense? One? Maybe two? 

Great question and I do not have an answer. Last season I was at a game when 3 balls fell that should have been caught and 2 hits went for extra bases that should have been routine singles. In the same game 3 routine ground balls slipped by a Twins infielder. I'm going to say that was really extreme. This might be something to check this year. Agree totally that offense is needed and the history of baseball usually allows a strong offensive player with a weak glove. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

No Margot is a big defensive improvement.

You do remember that every year the Twins bring in players who are highly touted and comments trash the work of the players from the previous year.

[Eris]

1 OF OAA = 0.9 runs.  I would be curious to know how this translates to wins and losses 
 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/fielding-run-value

 

 

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, Eris said:

1 OF OAA = 0.9 runs.  I would be curious to know how this translates to wins and losses 
 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/fielding-run-value

 

 

That's about 3 runs a week between having the best of the best OF defense and the worst of the worst. About 1 run a week between having the worst of the worst and an average defense. It's effect on wins and losses is dependent on when the outs were missed. 2 outs nobody on? Nobody out bases loaded? 

Defense absolutely matters, just not as much as offense. You don't want negative defenders all over the place, but if you have an average defense you're doing just fine. And a below average defense doesn't kill you if they're also offensive weapons. And a great defense without offense isn't going to win games (go ask a Mariners fan about that one).

[LambchoP]

Yes, if most of our starters stay relatively healthy, we should have a very good defensive outfield. I'm more worried about the offense than the defense however...

[Bodie]

Barring changes to the expected roster, the answer to headlines question is pretty easy...

For the Twins to have good OF defense as a team, two of three of Bader, Buxton and Kiersay need 140 starts apiece in regular OF positions.

That isn't hyperbole, it is the only possible way.  And that isn't a guarantee (never forget that just one year ago we were all told of Margot's gold glover caliber defense, and before that Joey, whose name we shall never mention, and his versatility and gold glove d...).  Buxton ain't getting any younger and his injury history hasn't gotten any shorter.   He can only be replaced defensively, at a comparable level, by Kiersey, and that is far from a sure thing for a MLB virgin.

Bader probably needs a vast majority of those 140 starts in RF, and he needs to learn the idiosyncracies.  Needs to be a big home field advantage as it was in Kepler's stretch.

Wallner can get away with a "Manny being Manny" level of defense (not bad, but occasionally forehead slappingly bone headed play - think Eddie Rosario in his poorer years for a Twins reference). And that is his ceiling.  No matter how strong his arm, he takes forever to get it where it goes.  Fixable, and probably easier than "fixing" any other fundamental baseball skill.  Yet it is seldom done.  And that is pretty much his sole asset on D.  He is fast, but not quick.  And he takes bad first steps regularly. Manny Ramirez defense starts to sound tempting, even if he's in his 50s (I assume).

 

I can already hear the fries of "no one plays 140 games at one position anymore".  To that I say that the Twins simply cannot play good team defense without 2 of those 3 doing it.  The talent to do it simply doesn't exist on this roster.

 

And "great" defense????  You need all 3 of the above mentioned vital ingredients starting 120 plus games.  Each.  With this roster,  it is the only feasible way.  With  a <1% of it happening (it is possible, if certain persons di.. , get lost, or are institutionalized in time - Rocco I hear there are several very nice, calm and quiet "health spas" in the New England area....) I won't hold my breath.   

I've seen good Twins defense all over the diamond from countless individuals. I've seen several great defenders (CF for much of my life).  Have seen several very good to great Twins defensive teams.  It has been quite a few years, though... and this team is nowhere near good defensively.

Buxton and Correa up the middle gives a nice framework to build around.  The case can be made that no one else is significantly above average at C 1B 2B 3B RF or LF, and that they are all below average if not significantly so. 

It's like buying the Christmas tree expected to be displayed at the White House and taking it to the monkey house and letting them decorate it. You've still got that great framework for a memorable Christmas. But will people remember the majestic fir tree, or the fact it's covered in monkey... feces?

[Linus]

No chance - the skills just aren’t there.  I do think Larnach / Buxton / Wallner could be average.  Bader will help but no way do I want him hitting against righties just for his glove.