Are We Underestimating Minnesota Twins Rule 5 Draft Pick Eiberson Castellano?

[Matthew Lenz]

For the first time since 2017, the Twins made a selection in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft this December. He'll have to make the team to stay with the organization, but if he does, he could be a difference-maker for them. Are we overlooking that upside?

Image courtesy of Reading Fightin Phils

The 23-year-old Eiberson Castellano had a phenomenal 2024 season, wherein he posted a 3.40 FIP and a 24.6% strikeout minus walk rate between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading. Although he’s likely to work as a long man out of the bullpen if he stays with the Twins, 20 of his 22 appearances were starts last year.

While he was great, the Phillies weren't completely off their rocker in not protecting the 2018 international signee. Not only did it take him more than three years to throw his first professional pitch in the States, but his results varied greatly in the seasons leading up to 2024, as he bounced back and forth between being a reliever and a starter. Now, as the Twins begin spring training, the 6-foot-3 hurler will look to show why he was “one of the more intriguing arms in the draft,” according to Geoff Pontes of Baseball America.

In a podcast series doing a deep dive into each farm system, Pontes and JJ Cooper named Castellano a “non-top-10 prospect to watch” for the Minnesota Twins.

“I think that there's a chance that this guy could be actually a useful long-term pitcher for the Twins,” Pontes said.

It's not often that you can pluck a healthy starter with plus stuff (coming off a great season) in the Rule 5 Draft, and the Twins would be remiss to let this opportunity go to waste even if Castellano falters during spring training. In addition to working out of the bullpen, the Venezuelan (wait, a Venezuelan pitcher acquired via the Rule 5 Draft - sound familiar?) has the ability to make spot starts as needed or piggyback with Simeon Woods Richardson at times.

For the Twins, there's indirect value in rostering a swingman who could reduce the pressure on David Festa and Zebby Matthews to make spot starts with the Twins, allowing them to really hone their craft in St. Paul instead until a larger opportunity opens up in the big-league rotation. For what it's worth, PECOTA projects an ERA north of 4.00 and a 12.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate. This would make him a slightly below-average pitcher, but relatively speaking, those are solid numbers for the role he’d be in with the Twins.

Looking past 2025, Castellano represents depth at a position where you can never have enough of it. While the Twins have developed one of the best pitching pipelines in baseball and control their top arms for the foreseeable future, it's not out of the question for Castellano to move into the back end of the rotation somewhere down the line.

Organizational floors are set by the performance of their star players, but how far they can go beyond their floor relies on role players and depth. Castellano’s potential contributions (along with other role players) could help this team go from competitive to contender—or from contender to honest-to-God winner. Players of his type can be invaluable to an organization, especially as a pitcher, and it's time we start looking at Castellano as such.

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[Dman]

I am hopeful but given his extremely short track record and the jump to the Major league baseball and the control issues he has battled it's hard to say how this turns out.  It looks like he has two plus pitches, fastball and changeup which is a nice combination, but will they play at the MLB level?  I guess we'll find out.

If he turns out to be something like Tyler Wells that would be awesome.  Best case scenario he makes it through the year and the Twins add to their pitching depth.  Worst case they send him back.

[LambchoP]

I hope his '24 was for real. Looks like he's got good stuff. Hopefully he can make it through the year without blocking better options. I was expecting some kind of trade so that we could send him down the the minors to finish his development, but not sure what that trade would look like 

[Linus]

Can’t see him riding in the bullpen unless he is lights out and elbows start blowing up.  If they like him this spring I could see them working out a trade.

[ashbury]

It's possible he can keep his ERA around 4.5 in his age-24 season, and if he accomplishes that then there could be room for a little additional growth as a pitcher, namely into a very useful piece a couple years down the road.  Can't rule out a starter's slot in the rotation someday.  It's a risk to carry him for the full season, and I'm of the opinion the Phillies will not make it easy to keep him via a trade, so pitching coach Maki has his work cut out for him.

[chpettit19]

Numerous reports out that the Twins tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 and couldn't come to an agreement. I'd think that's a sign that if the Twins like him enough now to try to work out a deal again the Phillies wouldn't give him up for just any old toss in deal as they clearly like him, too. 

The Twins have often times carried a long man in the pen who doesn't see any action for weeks at a time. Certainly a role that a Rule 5 pick could fill. Not ideal to not be able to rotate him down to AAA for a couple weeks after he goes multiple innings and bring up another guy to sit around for 2 weeks, but it can be done. I don't know if he'll earn a season long spot on the 26-man, but there's a path to it if the Twins truly like him that much and the Phillies are asking for too much in trade for him.

[bean5302]

So many moving parts right now. I think there's a very solid chance Castellano breaks camp on the big league team. The bullpen and rotation are both packed, but both have some flexibility with options available. Moving Festa and Sim to AAA wouldn't be unprecedented. Remember 2 years ago when the Twins had Ober and Varland starting the season in St. Paul to make room in the rotation?

If Castallano impresses with his stuff/control in ST, and I do expect the Twins will be giving him a lot of looks, I could see him being in the rotation to start the season. Castallano was pitching 5-6 innings pretty much like clockwork from mid-May on last year.

Down the stretch (AA) after the All Star Break
8 GS, 40.1 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 30.9% K, 5.6% BB, 0.99 WHIP, .280 BABIP
6.0+ innings 37.5%
5.0+ innings 87.5%
Quality Start 37.5% (every time 6+ innings)
Quality Start2 75% (5.0+ innings under 4.00 ERA)

While not totally dominant, the numbers were impressive.

Throw out the 1 bad start, and Castellano's numbers do look dominant, and he was regularly getting well into the 3rd TTO.
7 GS, 38.0 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 32.1% K, 5.5% BB, 0.87 WHIP, .246 BABIP
 

[karcherd]

If they are serious about contending, they will either work out a trade or send him back.  You can't afford to carry a pitcher who can't contribute on a regular basis if you truly want to contend.  And if they put him in the rotation over SWR and Festa as some have suggested, Falvey should be fired.

[Doctor Gast]

Castellano has potential, both MN & PHI know that. PHI won't make it easy for MN they want him back so I doubt there'll be a trade. Castellano's development won't be ideal but hopefully, he'll come through. I imagine he'll at least be assigned to long-relief mop-up. Hope Castellano's attitude is enough to be successful & he'd be worth the trouble. 

[Fatbat]

Not many saw SWR knocking the mlb door down last year. We might have EC and others do the same this year. Great potential in EC to be on our Pstaff for a decade!

[FlyingFinn]

Remember he only has to be on the active roster for a certain amount of time, is it two months (someone can correct me)? Then, if we want to still keep him but bring someone else up, I'm sure he will get "injured."

[Iowatwins]

As the title says, I'm in the camp that believes he should be getting more attention.  Watching his highlights from last year were extremely encouraging.  His numbers speak for themselves (strikeouts, WHIP, durability).  His pitch mix was most encouraging watching how many of his strike outs were with his (3rd pitch) curveball.  Having as many SP as they do at AA and above could help set the table for trading one of Lopez, Ober, or Ryan by the trade deadline if we are out of it, or by 2026.  With trade potential to seriously address the offensive/defensive short comings of the last few years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first base, or a franchise catcher? We can wish.

[DocBauer]

I have nothing against the kid. I'd like to have as many good pitching prospects as we can. But I just don't see the fit here. He had a very nice 2024, but 2/3 of his season was at A+ ball and the other 1/3 was at AA. He's going to turn 24yo in early May shortly after the season begins.

Is he really so much better than the arms we already have at AAA and AA that he's worth trading a decent prospect for? I don't know. I'm asking. And for a team with plans to contend for the playoffs, can we really afford a 7 man pen? Because that's what you're going to be playing with most days. A stashed long man to eat innings is only going to be used once every 7-10 days. I say this based on how such an arm was used by the Twins previously. Now, there might be a game where he HAS to pitch because it's all men on deck during a tough, tight series with someone, but that only further increases the need for him to be something more than just a stashed innings eater.

I'd be happy to trade with the Phillies to keep him, provided we don't give up another really good prospect for him. In that scenario, 1+1 does not equal 2 to me, it's just swapping out prospects. And maybe I'm missing something. Maybe he's going to jump from 8 games at AA and really rock the 8th spot in the pen. 

He's interesting. It would be nice to keep him. But the odds of him being a major contributor to the pen with no options available...when we already have a couple of those...just doesn't feel like a fit for this team, IMO.

[Iowatwins]

I think he might only be 23?

[ashbury]

24 minutes ago, Iowatwins said:

I think he might only be 23?

Until May 9. 

[DocBauer]

29 minutes ago, Iowatwins said:

I think he might only be 23?

Apparently math is hard or my eyesight is fade. He will be 24yo shortly after the season begins, not 25. Thank you for the correction.

[Matthew Lenz]

10 hours ago, Iowatwins said:

I think he might only be 23?

Thank you for bringing this to my attention. It's been updated!

[TwinsDr2021]

There is a lot to like with this kid, but a 23 year dominating high A doesn't impress me any more than a 28 year old dominating AAA, that is what you have to do if you want to continue chasing your dreams.

With that said those strikeout numbers and improvement in control there is no reason he can't become a solid major league pitcher. I can also see why Philly is going to make the Twins pay for a trade with him.

[Trov]

If FO believe in his stuff they will have him make team as a long man out of pen.  Even contending teams will have a guy at end of pen to do mop up rolls or inning eater at times.  If he starts to develop he could get moved up a roll.  Do not be surprised though if he has an "injury" sometime mid year when it is time bring someone else up. 

[jmlease1]

I like the talent, and frankly the Twins have been missing a reliever who could go 2-3 innings in the bullpen for a while. I'm but sure Castellano is ready yet, but he seems like a good Rule 5 pick. I think he'd be better off if we could work out a trade with Philly so we could send him to AAA, but this might be a bit of a standoff where the twins are trying to show Philly that we're committed to him and Philly is still demanding too much believing that we won't be able to hold him on the 26-man. It's an interesting situation.

If he is ready enough to do more than just be the long man in a blowout and can pitch once a week for 2-3 innings and save the bullpen after a short or shorter start...there's real value there. Can he be a guy who comes in and throws 2+ innings after Paddack or SWR or whomever has a game where they can't get out of the 5th inning but the game is still close? And will spring training tell us enough to know?

[LambchoP]

I think how he looks in spring training might help determine our course of action with him. Dude seems like a legit pitching prospect and you can never have too many of those. I hope we find a way to keep him. Add him to the stable of young arms we're developing:)

[twinstalker]

Reading is one of the worst pitcher's parks in the minor leagues.  Never be impressed by a hitter's stats there.  On the flip side, a pitcher with success in Reading is more impressive than one in an average park.

Castellano could be a gem.  Lots of flags, but between his success in two of the last three years and a second, pitching-inclined organization adding to his skillset, I'm very hopeful.  Unless he's hurt, I can't imagine him not breaking camp with the Twins.

[ToddlerHarmon]

There was another article saying that the Bader signing was purposefully removing a tempting pinch-hit-early strategy from Rocco's bag.

Maybe this signing can force Rocco to use the 8th spot in the bullpen as a place for a flexible long man, rather than a doghouse for underperforming vets?

In which case, yay. But in any case, we should recognize that the 8th guy in Rocco's pen is not really blocking anyone. If they see anything, give him a shot.