Infield Defense Could Be a Total Disaster for the Minnesota Twins

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Can Iglesias still play SS, though? (I am a little surprised that after he hit .335 and put up a 137 OPS+ that he's not signed somewhere...what is he asking for, contract-wise?) I suspect he's not a better glove than either Castro or Lee at SS any longer and last year's hitting explosion might have been a fluke year: outside of the small sample COVID season in 2020, he's never been close to that kind of hitting. A little hard to see him repeating it at age 35...

Him playing SS is a bit of a stretch, but I'd say better than Castro and just based on his performance last season, a bit better than Lee. His hitting was absolutely a fluke and returned to normal in the end of the season and postseason. But he's still a very valuable middle infielder with good hands and a very high baseball IQ, not to mention the single best clubhouse guy in all of baseball last season. 

He was allegedly looking for a two year deal, but wasn't able to find one. Just this weekend he used the Boras journalist to print a story to all but beg to come back to the Mets. Don't think that's happening unless he's willing to settle for a split contract. 

He's an immensely likable player so I hope he finds something soon. 

[Rhyno006]

Quote

Watching infielders kick the ball around and fail to convert makeable plays is extremely vexing as a fan.

Imagine how the pitching staff feels about it... 

[jorgenswest]

Miranda’s OOA last year at 1B was 0 in 100 innings. For his career it is -4 in 698 innings. Even assuming that he has not improved over the career number, how much should we worry about an out every 19-20 games? He will need to make it up with the bat. It will be his bat that determines the playing time.

Julien did drop last year in OOA. It could be the shift. He had a -4 in 622 innings. His bat in 2023 would easily make up the difference. It will be his bat that determines his playing time.

Lewis had a positive OOA. He makes some bad throws but must make up for it with range.

It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.

[Linus]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Miranda’s OOA last year at 1B was 0 in 100 innings. For his career it is -4 in 698 innings. Even assuming that he has not improved over the career number, how much should we worry about an out every 19-20 games? He will need to make it up with the bat. It will be his bat that determines the playing time.

Julien did drop last year in OOA. It could be the shift. He had a -4 in 622 innings. His bat in 2023 would easily make up the difference. It will be his bat that determines his playing time.

Lewis had a positive OOA. He makes some bad throws but must make up for it with range.

It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.

No question-the bats will make the decision.

[bean5302]

In a one year sample, Santana was outstanding in "1" metric (OAA), which was the same metric where he was a little above average in 2023. He was very good in "1" metric (DRS), which was the same metric where he was average just a couple years ago. UZR has him roughly league average for nearly a decade.

OAA and DRS are wildly unstable metrics.

As far as the eye test goes, I was not impressed with Santana. He would not move off the bag to catch balls. I don't care if the runner is safe. Santana not moving off the bag to stop balls changed rulings from what would have been "infield hit" with a runner on 1st to "E4" or "E5" or "E6" with a runner on 2nd plenty of times.

I'm not concerned about Santana not manning 1B at all.

[NotAboutWinning]

I'm not as down on Miranda at 1B as some. A lot of his numbers come from his rookie year when he was adjusting to the MLB and learning 1B on the job. He is a big guy with enough mobility for 1B. I think he will be fine... if they give him some more time on task!

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

When it comes to defense, I like to mainly focus up the middle. CF? Buxton, Bader & Keirsey- Fantastic; SS? Correa, Lee & Castro- pretty darn good; C? If we want to focus on defense, Vazquez has the highest defense rating of any player on the team & should have the most games & Jeffers is great at the other tandem if not extended beyond that. If both continue to be healthy we are fine. 2B is the sticker. Back when the shift was still legal Twins made Julien their future 2Bman even though his glove left much to be desired & with the shift they could hide him & still have his bat. The shift was banned yet the Twins were bound & determined to make Julien their 2Bman. They were able to spin the defensive stats to make him look passable & got Correa & Santana to cover for him. Santana had plenty of opportunities to showcase his glove although his bat was well below what it should be. Playing out of position, the few times I watched the Twins, I saw too many GBs go through between Santana & 1B. When Correa went down we didn't have anyone to cover for Julien so all his warts were seen. If we want to be a better defensive team, which I certainly do, Julien has to be removed from 2B. IMO Martin is the best option, he has the best range. Lee is good but is better suited at 3B, Castro is good but he'll be busy elsewhere. We don't need a GG 1Bman we need a much better 2Bman. 

Less defensive importance. 3B- Lewis, is good but he's there to keep him happy, I'd prefer Lee & sub Lewis at 1B (which I think he could excel) & then Castro; LF- Bader, Larnach, Castro & Martin. pretty well covered. We have gained a lot w/o having to fit Margot in the lineup.

Least defensive importance. RF- Wallner, good enough with a great arm & bat & Larnach. 1B- Miranda, needs the time to improve his defense there. His bat will mash as long as he's healthy which hopefully for the whole season. France hopefully his bat will come alive to where he can stay to sub Miranda & DH. IMO Julien's bat will no longer profile at 1B even if he adjusts offensive & defensively. Gasper is a break glass option. When we take the proper perspective we aren't that bad if we take the proper actions at 2B & catcher then we don't have to worry about 1B so much. 

 

I concur on much of this. Correa is the obvious choice at SS. Then Lee is the best 3B. 2B I would also give Martin some significant time there. Lewis shares time with Martin and spells Lee at third. Miranda gets significant time at 1B with Lewis also getting some seasoning there. Lewis has no time at first so this part is an experiment. ST would be a good place for him to gain some experience.  I hate to see him be turned into a utility player but....

[sweetmusicviola16]

55 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

In a one year sample, Santana was outstanding in "1" metric (OAA), which was the same metric where he was a little above average in 2023. He was very good in "1" metric (DRS), which was the same metric where he was average just a couple years ago. UZR has him roughly league average for nearly a decade.

OAA and DRS are wildly unstable metrics.

As far as the eye test goes, I was not impressed with Santana. He would not move off the bag to catch balls. I don't care if the runner is safe. Santana not moving off the bag to stop balls changed rulings from what would have been "infield hit" with a runner on 1st to "E4" or "E5" or "E6" with a runner on 2nd plenty of times.

I'm not concerned about Santana not manning 1B at all.

I agree. Santana not worth going 12mil on, now attaching an option to him last year at the same salary might have been worthwhile. The bat too aside from his early summer hot stretch was nothing overwhelmingly great either.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

In a one year sample, Santana was outstanding in "1" metric (OAA), which was the same metric where he was a little above average in 2023. He was very good in "1" metric (DRS), which was the same metric where he was average just a couple years ago. UZR has him roughly league average for nearly a decade.

OAA and DRS are wildly unstable metrics.

As far as the eye test goes, I was not impressed with Santana. He would not move off the bag to catch balls. I don't care if the runner is safe. Santana not moving off the bag to stop balls changed rulings from what would have been "infield hit" with a runner on 1st to "E4" or "E5" or "E6" with a runner on 2nd plenty of times.

I'm not concerned about Santana not manning 1B at all.

I also remember him dropping at least one soft "line drive," but I don't remember if it turned into a big inning or not...

[DocBauer]

The Twins are going to miss Santana's defense. That's not even debatable I don't think. The question is how much they are going to miss it?

And that's not just how well/average/poor France and Miranda play 1B.

Correa is great at SS. Period. 

Lewis was a 3B in HS before taking over SS his senior year. He's got a strong arm and remains a good athlete, even with a loss of speed. I also can't recall throwing issues until sometime last season. He gets his throwing motion back to "normal" and 3B is just fine, and potentially good.

Can Lee take 2B and it his? He isn't a speed, but he doesn't have to be. He positions himself well, seems to have good instincts, soft hands, is smooth in his motions, and a plenty strong arm for 2B. 

If Lewis's arm is "fixed" and Lee is ready for full time duty, I think the INF is pretty solid, if with questions about 1B. (And I think Castro is just fine in his role).

Solid at catcher, solid up the middle INF, and solid in CF. The corners might be a little rough, but that's not fair to Lewis, or any improvements from Larnach and Wallner.

Bad 1B defense, no Lee at 2B, Lewis's arm keeps frustrating, then the INF might be in some trouble. But Lewis right and Lee in place, I think the INF might be OK.

[RpR]

Spring Training , or most likely, first month of regular season, will tell how lacking the Twins infield may, or may not be.

[David Maro]

The bigger problem with a poor infield defense is giving teams extra outs. And extra outs means extra pitches thrown. If Lewis is playing 3rd he needs to stop imitating Correa with the 90 mile hr. throws. With most teams having heavy LH hitting lineups 1st and 2nd base really looks problematic. ST needs to spend hours working to find who will man those two positions.

Edited February 19, 2025 by David Maro
Spelling

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I also remember him dropping at least one soft "line drive," but I don't remember if it turned into a big inning or not...

Every player is going to have a few bad plays. My eye test just saw a lot of balls which were catchable/stoppable fly past his glove because he wasn't willing to concede the base and prioritize catching the ball first, getting the out second. Like when Jake Cave used to dive for every ball within 20 feet of him.

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.

I’m old enough to remember many discussions of not needing Dougie M to hit because he saved so many runs on defense.  A run is a run after all.  Truth is, a scored run is worth more than prevented run but there is a scale to balance.  

I’m not terribly worried about the defense at first, (says the former poor fielding first baseman).  I think Miranda could actually be quite decent but it will come down to who hits.  

None of them are going to be bad enough to be unplayable and guys like Correa will adjust their expectations of what they can try.  It’s a hitting position.

[HerbieFan]

I wonder if the lack of chatter on Brooks Lee is to just take any pressure off the kid.  Drafted as a SS.  Played SS in college....seems like a transition to 2B should work defensively?  Would take some work, but Castro's greatest value is his defensive versatility.  Playing him Castro at 2B seems to negate most of that.  Here's hoping Lee forces his way onto the 26-man with a great spring.

[h2oface]

I guess nobody remebers Santana at the plate and in the field for April and May last year. Offical Score Keepers are charity workers. It looks like, regardless of the "changes" that would happen this year, the rental vets are going to be playing way too much for my taste. Good luck to us all.

[RpR]

59 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

I wonder if the lack of chatter on Brooks Lee is to just take any pressure off the kid.  Drafted as a SS.  Played SS in college....seems like a transition to 2B should work defensively?  Would take some work, but Castro's greatest value is his defensive versatility.  Playing him Castro at 2B seems to negate most of that.  Here's hoping Lee forces his way onto the 26-man with a great spring.

Lee is good at third, do not jack him around like they have done to so many.

Compared to Miranda and Lewis, to not put Lee at 3rd is absurd.

 

 

 

 

[PatPfund]

Or they'll be better than last year with a bit more health, because according to the Athletic, Rocco is actually running team conditioning/defensive drills as part of the schedule instead of the previous 6 years of letting the players set their own work in the morning (meaning even if you did do those drills, you didn't do them with your all of your teammates). Part of defense is the skill you are born with it, the other part is the competence that comes with drill, knowing what to do, knowing where your teammates will be, knowing all that from actually doing it. The Rocco-era Twins haven't ever done that, and have often played like it.

(Correa praising the new plan sort of confirms for me that last fall's shots at younger players not putting in the work were directed at team management as well as the players.)

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I’m old enough to remember many discussions of not needing Dougie M to hit because he saved so many runs on defense.  A run is a run after all.  Truth is, a scored run is worth more than prevented run but there is a scale to balance.  

I’m not terribly worried about the defense at first, (says the former poor fielding first baseman).  I think Miranda could actually be quite decent but it will come down to who hits.  

None of them are going to be bad enough to be unplayable and guys like Correa will adjust their expectations of what they can try.  It’s a hitting position.

I love good defense. I love defense helping the pitching staff. Run prevention is a combination of the pitcher and the position players.

But offense is still king, overall, at most positions. That obviously means 1B as well.

We have to remember that an extra base runner, or opportunity, does mean more work for the pitcher at times. But it doesn't mean said runner will come home. So agree that a run scored by your offense is often better than a missed defensive play in the long run.

And the way the game is played now is vastly different than 20 years ago. It used to be very few catchers, SS, or CF were producers. They were defense first. Second base was largely the same. But in the modern game of today, there are so many offensive SS, 2B, CF that offense comes from different sources than we used to see. And maybe that's why we're seeing such a drop in production league wide at 1B. You no longer NEED that spot to be your middle of the order BIG BAT. 

Still, I really miss having an everyday 1B who could handle the position defensively and STILL produce. It really feels like a missed opportunity in the Twins lineup at the moment.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

  Truth is, a scored run is worth more than prevented run 

?

Based on what?

It's hard to measure defense, but I don't think the value of a run saved is less.

The only research I've seen about the value of runs is intuitive....a run is more valuable in a low scoring environment than a high scoring one. That'd tend to make me think a run saved might actually be worth MORE than a run scored.

 

I'd also posit the range of skill is narrower for defense than offense, so it's harder to actually BE a run better than another player on defense.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I wonder if the lack of chatter on Brooks Lee is to just take any pressure off the kid.  Drafted as a SS.  Played SS in college....seems like a transition to 2B should work defensively?  Would take some work, but Castro's greatest value is his defensive versatility.  Playing him Castro at 2B seems to negate most of that.  Here's hoping Lee forces his way onto the 26-man with a great spring.

I watched Lee in a couple of ST games last season, as well as during the regular season. I don't know that he's athletic enough to be a starting SS at the ML level. But he can play the position adequately on an occasional basis for sure. But at 3B and 2B I saw a smart ballplayer that took good position, had good hands, made smooth hand changes and pivots, and had a solid arm. I have no issues wherever they put him, but it does seem to make more sense for him at 2B and Lewis at 3B.

His bat was looking really good in ST. It looked good again in St Paul once he got over his back issue. It looked good...better than it probably is...his first few games up, and then he was poor after that. How much of that was being a rookie? How much was the shoulder issue he developed? How much was a combination of both?

My philosophy is when a guy hits in college, and then hits in the minors, the potential exists he will do so at the ML level, allowing for being a rookie, or dealing with injuries, or both. My personal opinion/hope is Lee IS ready to take the 2B job. And the bat will play. But I'm suspecting the 2026 version of his bat will be better than what we see in 2025 due to experience and the nature of his baseball intelligence just making adjustments. 

[Jocko87]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

?

Based on what?

It's hard to measure defense, but I don't think the value of a run saved is less.

The only research I've seen about the value of runs is intuitive....a run is more valuable in a low scoring environment than a high scoring one. That'd tend to make me think a run saved might actually be worth MORE than a run scored.

 

I'd also posit the range of skill is narrower for defense than offense, so it's harder to actually BE a run better than another player on defense.

For the same reason defensive stats are years behind offense.  You have to score to win and offense dictates the pace, defense can only react. 

Agreed it’s completely game situation dependent for any given moment but I’m thinking more long term.  Assuming equal pitching, who wins a game or long series of games between excellent hitters that are below average defenders or a team of excellent defenders that are below average hitters?

I’m at about 60-40 for the hitters.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

For the same reason defensive stats are years behind offense.  You have to score to win and offense dictates the pace, defense can only react. 

Agreed it’s completely game situation dependent for any given moment but I’m thinking more long term.  Assuming equal pitching, who wins a game or long series of games between excellent hitters that are below average defenders or a team of excellent defenders that are below average hitters?

I’m at about 60-40 for the hitters.

I agree defensive stats are pretty doubtful.

However, that's completely unrelated to whether saving a run is more valuable, or less valuable than scoring a run. If either. It's just harder to measure defense. 

If we believe Bill James old pythagorean theorem for baseball, saving a run is worth slightly more. 

(Rs scored)² / (Rs scored)² + (Rs allowed)²

Take a team that scores 800 runs and gives up 800 runs. That team should be .500, according to the theorem. 

Give them 900 runs scored and the same 800 runs allowed. They should  win at a .558 pace.

But give them the same 800 runs scored but 700 allowed, they should win at a .566 pace.

So at least according to Bill James, saving runs is worth slightly more than scoring runs.

[Bodie]

17 hours ago, rdehring said:

Yup, it could or probably will be a problem.

I do think that the kids, whomever is playing second and third, will be better.  But damn it was enjoyable watching Santana at first last year.

Remember watching the Braves back when I was a lot younger.  They had that big guy, Joe Adcock, at first most of the time.  But his back up, Frank Torre, was an amazing defensive player.  You know, Joe's relatively unknown brother.  Best I have seen of late was Dougie M, you know that name I used to be able to spell.  Thought he was even better than Santana.  But defense at first can be HUGE!

So count me among those who love D and will be cussing at my tv a lot this summer.  

 

Fun Meintkeiwitcz (?sp?) fact... he played for the Pirates at the end of his career. He was thier regular starting 2B.  Hardly the typical career trajectory of a normal first baseman... He was extraordinary at 1B as good as anyone. 

(Won many a free beer by being able to spell that Slavic monstrosity back in the day.  Loved that horseshoe of a name on the back of his jersey)

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Linus said:

This is from memory so chime in if I’m wrong but it seemed like Royce’s throwing problems were primarily concentrated mid- August to mid-September or so.  Don’t recall him struggling with the arm before that although the action on his throwing looks forced at times, not athletic.  It’s almost like he is trying to throw like C4 and its not comfortable.

Julien has lots to prove on both sides of the ball.  I’m not giving up on him but not counting on him either.  Start him in St. Paul and see what he can do.  I would also have him playing a lot of first base.

i believe Lee will be fine at second with the glove but has to prove he is a MLB hitter.  He might have to start in St. Paul which means your starting second baseman is Castro which is fine.

I’m on record as saying Miranda should be playing first.  If you are going to be sub-par then give the experience to a guy who will be here next year.

So I understand, you're good with sub-par at 1B this year AND next year.......

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

For the same reason defensive stats are years behind offense.  You have to score to win and offense dictates the pace, defense can only react. 

Agreed it’s completely game situation dependent for any given moment but I’m thinking more long term.  Assuming equal pitching, who wins a game or long series of games between excellent hitters that are below average defenders or a team of excellent defenders that are below average hitters?

I’m at about 60-40 for the hitters.

Generally speaking I think teams build their offense and then, when having done so, they uncover whatever defensive weaknesses they believe may keep them from competing and then try to fill those without  giving up the offensive gains they have made.  Key word TRY.

 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So I understand, you're good with sub-par at 1B this year AND next year.......

Or maybe with a year of experience this year he won’t be sun-par next year.  That wasn’t so hard was it.

[Linus]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

?

Based on what?

It's hard to measure defense, but I don't think the value of a run saved is less.

The only research I've seen about the value of runs is intuitive....a run is more valuable in a low scoring environment than a high scoring one. That'd tend to make me think a run saved might actually be worth MORE than a run scored.

 

I'd also posit the range of skill is narrower for defense than offense, so it's harder to actually BE a run better than another player on defense.

This is spot on.  I’ve never had faith in defensive metrics for this reason.  In my own feeble mind I view fielders fitting in to one of three buckets: 1 - exceptional or difference maker.  Not many of these. Perhaps 5-10% of the players. 2 - bad or detrimental.  Guys that cost you occasional games because their defense is just bad.  This category has maybe 10 - 15% of the players.  Then we have adequate or competent.  This category has 75 - 85% of all players.  Obviously some differences within a group this large but not enough to be dissimilar over the course of the whole season.  This little process is by position so it’s possible a guy drops down a position and goes from the bad bucket to the ok bucket.

To my SABR friends there is nothing scientific about this - just observation.  I’m curious how other people view the percentages I assigned.  Too high?  Too low?

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Or maybe with a year of experience this year he won’t be sun-par next year.  That wasn’t so hard was it.

Or he will be worse making it a foolish move to begin with.

Twins are not AAA as much as some here want them to be.

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is spot on.  I’ve never had faith in defensive metrics for this reason.  In my own feeble mind I view fielders fitting in to one of three buckets: 1 - exceptional or difference maker.  Not many of these. Perhaps 5-10% of the players. 2 - bad or detrimental.  Guys that cost you occasional games because their defense is just bad.  This category has maybe 10 - 15% of the players.  Then we have adequate or competent.  This category has 75 - 85% of all players.  Obviously some differences within a group this large but not enough to be dissimilar over the course of the whole season.  This little process is by position so it’s possible a guy drops down a position and goes from the bad bucket to the ok bucket.

To my SABR friends there is nothing scientific about this - just observation.  I’m curious how other people view the percentages I assigned.  Too high?  Too low?

Too many lousy fielders are brought up because , for awhile they hit above average, then after awhile, the team has to decide how long a bat over comes a hole in the defense.