Infield Defense Could Be a Total Disaster for the Minnesota Twins

[tony&rodney]

Assigning value to offense has been done forever, a run scored counts for your side no matter how that run is scored. Putting the ball in play is generally, but not always, preferable to striking out, hitting into a double play being one common example. An exception would be when a run scores on that double play which is a positive versus not scoring. Now we are in a decade where folks argue vociferously for the latest newest fashions. This was predictable and some of the newer (2-3 decades old) analytics are popular. In any event grading offense is being done and has been done pretty successfully forever.

Conversely, grading defense has difficulty all over the place. Does every batted ball get assigned value exactly in the same way by the same person and are playing conditions factored into an equation? Impossible. Decades ago i developed a somewhat shoddy system, using a raft of diacritical marks, to assign value to the defensive plays in front of me. This was initiated by comments from a broadcaster lavishing praise on Pete Rose for his hustle and using words that could be taken as criticism to describe how Rod Carew ran the bases. There have been thousands of instances where the guy who looks all 100% wasted running draws praise when the smooth runner is frowned on as having natural talent but not extending themsleves. I personally doubt that Pete Rose, who played very hard, ever outworked Rod Carew at anything. But I digress. Last year, I charted a few Twins games to measure, according to my shoddy system, to determine quite roughly whether the defensive movements or plays from either team affected the final score. In sum, defense just doesn't matter in blowout games that much even if the runs scored to get the rally going were a result of poor play and conversely a fine defensive play stopped a rally. So it is hard to predict the value in a blowout. However, in close games (1-3 runs difference) the ability of one team to convert outs on as near to exact plays as is possible when the other team cannot make a play makes a difference. This is all just circumstantial scribbles and grading defense is (IMO) remains subjective. Two people cannot view the same play in an exact fashion.

The Twins lost several games due to a general inability to make plays in my small sample. This has no wider worth as everyone has their own view of individual players, which may be due to cultural factors as well as natural favoritism for one's home team. A simple example of that may be how many on this board view Edouard Julien versus how he is viewed by people from elsewhere. Why does BTV have Julien so high?

Just a pile of blab to say that the efficacy of grading defense is nowhere near how offense is evaluated. What is clear to most is that they both have value. The current Twins front office has their views as well and we get to watch the product they value.

Answering directly to the original title, I doubt whether the defense will be a disaster but the odds of the Twins advancing in a playoff series (should they qualify) are quite low because little things like catching the ball make a difference in a series of close games. 

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Linus said:

Or maybe with a year of experience this year he won’t be sun-par next year.  That wasn’t so hard was it.

He had half a season to distinguish himself as par at 1B and failed to do so.  He's Chjris Parmalee at best.  That ain't much.

[Physics Guy]

On 2/19/2025 at 8:40 AM, Trov said:

I never watched France play much defense.  To me 1st base defense is broken into 2 major areas.  One is how well can they make their own plays, getting stops and turning them into outs.  The second is how well can they save the other infielders from getting errors and turning them into outs.  This is things like making digs on throws.  I would say Santana was great at the first part and mostly average to maybe just above average at the second part. 

If France can be above average at the second part we can live with average on the first part, unless he hits as bad as he did last year too.  I hope the heel fracture was a big reason for his drop off on both sides, but I do not think so.  Personally, I hope we can find someone that can be either a great hitter or a good defender at first, but right now it is not looking good at first. 

According to Fangraphs, France was #2 in scoops at 1B last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&season1=2024&season=2024&stats=fld&pos=1b&sortcol=15&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[Physics Guy]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

He had half a season to distinguish himself as par at 1B and failed to do so.  He's Chjris Parmalee at best.  That ain't much.

Good thing the Twins didn't give up on Koskie when he started.  He was sub-par to begin with and became an above average 3B.  Miranda is roughly the same age that Koskie was when he settled in with the Twins.  Give him a chance.

[dxpavelka]

44 minutes ago, Physics Guy said:

Good thing the Twins didn't give up on Koskie when he started.  He was sub-par to begin with and became an above average 3B.  Miranda is roughly the same age that Koskie was when he settled in with the Twins.  Give him a chance.

After 3 years in the big leagues Koskie had a 11.8 WAR.  AND he was a plus defender.  AND he was a plus defender.  Miranda 3 years in has a 2.3 WAR and may never be an average defender.

 

[Greglw3]

I found this on a Mariners based site, which may be an indication of what France is capable of - credit Ben Ranieri (SODOMOJO powered by Fansided). March 2022.

* https://sodomojo.com/2022/03/14/seattle-mariners-expect-ty-france-2022/ *

Maybe this is why Rocco seems so confident in him and the foot fracture was a factor last year.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

He had half a season to distinguish himself as par at 1B and failed to do so.  He's Chjris Parmalee at best.  That ain't much.

That's a pretty ridiculous comp. Chris Parmelee was a AAAA player who fooled a bunch of us into thinking he was going to be something after he beat up a bunch of september call-ups in a short stint in 2011. He basically never hit again. (props to him for hanging around for 6 seasons, though)

Miranda has been a quality hitter in multiple seasons and a substantially better player in half the number of seasons, but accumulating about the same amount of ABs. He's had some injury troubles that have dragged him down, but he's still far more accomplished than Parmelee, who simply couldn't hit very well when outside the old september call-up model and his BABIP came back to earth.

[stringer bell]

I don't know if defensive metrics measure all of these things, but here are four areas where first base defense should be evaluated. 1) Making the right fundamental play. Throwing to the proper base. Positioning properly to field the ball and also to make cutoffs. 2) Receiving the ball on throws to first. Knowing when to come off the bag and perhaps make a swipe tag and when to hold it. Stretching and scooping. The Twins have put a lot of short first baseman over there in the Rocco era--Arráez, Solano, Santana and now France--and those few inches on good stretches could get back some outs that are being given up for range. 3) Fielding grounders including ranging and throwing to the pitcher. 4) Pop-ups, particularly foul territory.

Santana did all these things quite well. In general, making the expected plays is good enough for a first baseman, particularly if they make a majority of the scoops of low throws. Former catchers (like Santana, Morneau and Mauer) are usually pretty good at scooping the ball. I don't expect France to be bad at routine plays and fundamentals, but he won't have much range and he's relatively short. He needs to hit well to be an asset.

Depending on what happens at second base, I think the infield will be somewhere between pretty weak and average. Range is going to be a factor at all positions--the Twins just can't seem to get fast, rangy infielders--but by and large they'll turn outs into outs. Also, I think it would be helpful for Correa to have a steady double play partner. Continuity in the middle infield is a nice extra to have.

[tony&rodney]

For those who enjoy trivial details, watch where the first baseman has his foot on throws to first base. They have been taught to begin in the middle of the bag and slide their back foot left or right depending on where the throw is directed. Remember, the bag is even bigger than it was in the past. Fortunately for the Twins, Correa pretty much puts every throw chest high to the middle of the bag where all the first baseman has to do is catch the ball. Julien, however, requires a skilled guy because his throws are left, right, and bounced. Joe Mauer, among others, would have caught every single throw by Julien. This in turn reduces anxiety and eventually the throws become right on target. Something to watch for those interested. FWIW, Sano was brutal on this detail but managed some of the other first base skills adequately.

[DJL44]

On 2/19/2025 at 9:22 PM, DocBauer said:

And the way the game is played now is vastly different than 20 years ago. It used to be very few catchers, SS, or CF were producers. They were defense first. Second base was largely the same. But in the modern game of today, there are so many offensive SS, 2B, CF that offense comes from different sources than we used to see.

That's more like the game of the 1970s and 1980s. 20 years ago was 2005 - Mike Piazza and Derek Jeter were active players. The Twins used Matt LeCroy at catcher in 2005. Catcher defense declined significantly before the "framing" revolution of 2011.

The 1920s and 1930s had their share of up-the-middle run producers. The 60s-80s were low run-scoring and defense took priority. 1990-2010 was a big offense era.

We're currently in a low-offense era and defensive value has been quantified with statcast much more precisely than ever before. However, we also have fewer balls in play than any time in history (so many strikeouts) so the impact of elite defense is minimized.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Joe Mauer, among others, would have caught every single throw by Julien. 

Heh.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

That's a pretty ridiculous comp. Chris Parmelee was a AAAA player who fooled a bunch of us into thinking he was going to be something after he beat up a bunch of september call-ups in a short stint in 2011. He basically never hit again. (props to him for hanging around for 6 seasons, though)

Miranda has been a quality hitter in multiple seasons and a substantially better player in half the number of seasons, but accumulating about the same amount of ABs. He's had some injury troubles that have dragged him down, but he's still far more accomplished than Parmelee, who simply couldn't hit very well when outside the old september call-up model and his BABIP came back to earth.

The comp was in reference to someone comping Miranda to Koskie at a similar age.  You can slice it anyway you want but Miranda comps a helluva lot closer to Parmalee than to Koskie.

 

[stringer bell]

With his relatively low walk and home run rate, José Miranda needs to hit for a high average and with his lack of defensive tools, he needs to be well above average as a hitter to be a major league regular. I think these are facts not in dispute.

I don't think Miranda will be a star or a guy who the Twins extend beyond his arbitration years, but he's valuable while his salary is low and under team control. I think he could be okay defensively at first with a bit more experience, but he won't win gold gloves there either. 

[dxpavelka]

On 2/20/2025 at 9:49 PM, Greglw3 said:

I found this on a Mariners based site, which may be an indication of what France is capable of - credit Ben Ranieri (SODOMOJO powered by Fansided). March 2022.

* https://sodomojo.com/2022/03/14/seattle-mariners-expect-ty-france-2022/ *

Maybe this is why Rocco seems so confident in him and the foot fracture was a factor last year.

Wouldn't be the first guy to struggle at other positions and find himself defensively at 1B.  Miranda could do the same but we haven't seen anything to give us much confidence that will happen.  At the end of the day the best guy will play more.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The comp was in reference to someone comping Miranda to Koskie at a similar age.  You can slice it anyway you want but Miranda comps a helluva lot closer to Parmalee than to Koskie.

 

In terms of MLB production at the same age, Mirtanda comps a lot closer to Koskie than Parmelee, though. Both had 2.3 bWAR through their age 26 seasons; Parmelee was replacement level for his career.

The progression of Miranda and Koskie is pretty different, though: Koskie made it up later and stayed healthier initially with no struggles after making it in 1999. They're not great comps for each other because the development path and injury status is so different, even if their overall production through their age 26 seasons is very similar.

But Miranda is far, far better than Parmelee. Miranda has struggled when he's been battling injuries. Parmelee struggled when he had to face pitchers who weren't September call-ups.

[dxpavelka]

On 2/22/2025 at 9:10 AM, jmlease1 said:

In terms of MLB production at the same age, Mirtanda comps a lot closer to Koskie than Parmelee, though. Both had 2.3 bWAR through their age 26 seasons; Parmelee was replacement level for his career.

The progression of Miranda and Koskie is pretty different, though: Koskie made it up later and stayed healthier initially with no struggles after making it in 1999. They're not great comps for each other because the development path and injury status is so different, even if their overall production through their age 26 seasons is very similar.

But Miranda is far, far better than Parmelee. Miranda has struggled when he's been battling injuries. Parmelee struggled when he had to face pitchers who weren't September call-ups.

But is Miranda good enough to be a key cog in a championship contender?  I haven't seen it.  I can't give him a full-time job based on what I've seen. Sorry. Can't do it. Will he be given opportunity?  Sure.  What will he do with it?

 

[stringer bell]

21 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

But is Miranda good enough to be a key cog in a championship contender?  I haven't seen it.  I can't give him a full-time job based on what I've seen. Sorry. Can't do it. Will he be given opportunity?  Sure.  What will he do with it?

 

I concur that the jury is still out on Miranda. In his rookie year, he was a key cog and perhaps even carried the team for part of two months. Last year, he was almost an All-Star at the break, but wasn't even a replacement player afterwards. It might be the injuries--shoulder, back and a pretty serious beaning--but we said the same thing for Alex Kirilloff for years and only saw a complete hitter in glimpses. The toolchest isn't full--he's really slow, with an average at-best arm and so-so power--so he has to maximize what he's good at, which is hitting the ball hard. 

This thread was started about defense and Miranda worked very hard to be an acceptable third baseman. I'm confident he would do the same at first if allowed. He won't ever be a plus fielder IMHO, but it's good enough if you hit as well as he has in stretches. 

[Linus]

47 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I concur that the jury is still out on Miranda. In his rookie year, he was a key cog and perhaps even carried the team for part of two months. Last year, he was almost an All-Star at the break, but wasn't even a replacement player afterwards. It might be the injuries--shoulder, back and a pretty serious beaning--but we said the same thing for Alex Kirilloff for years and only saw a complete hitter in glimpses. The toolchest isn't full--he's really slow, with an average at-best arm and so-so power--so he has to maximize what he's good at, which is hitting the ball hard. 

This thread was started about defense and Miranda worked very hard to be an acceptable third baseman. I'm confident he would do the same at first if allowed. He won't ever be a plus fielder IMHO, but it's good enough if you hit as well as he has in stretches. 

Plus he is not competing with a Gold Glove.  I get letting Santaning a clear shot last year as the difference in the glove was huge.  Ty France?  He might be worse than Miranda - at the most slightly better.

[Major League Ready]

On 2/20/2025 at 9:49 PM, Greglw3 said:

I found this on a Mariners based site, which may be an indication of what France is capable of - credit Ben Ranieri (SODOMOJO powered by Fansided). March 2022.

* https://sodomojo.com/2022/03/14/seattle-mariners-expect-ty-france-2022/ *

Maybe this is why Rocco seems so confident in him and the foot fracture was a factor last year.

Thanks for sharing this info.  I have not seen Franz much at 1B and was under the impression he was no better than Miranda.  That made it hard to understand why they wouldn't just go with Miranda.  If Franz is much more capable but hampered by an injury last year, they can evaluate him this spring.  Could be significant upside with virtually no risk.  I am looking forward to applying the eye test this spring.

The irony here is that a whole lot of people were dead set against Miranda as anything but a DH.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I concur that the jury is still out on Miranda. In his rookie year, he was a key cog and perhaps even carried the team for part of two months. Last year, he was almost an All-Star at the break, but wasn't even a replacement player afterwards. It might be the injuries--shoulder, back and a pretty serious beaning--but we said the same thing for Alex Kirilloff for years and only saw a complete hitter in glimpses. The toolchest isn't full--he's really slow, with an average at-best arm and so-so power--so he has to maximize what he's good at, which is hitting the ball hard. 

This thread was started about defense and Miranda worked very hard to be an acceptable third baseman. I'm confident he would do the same at first if allowed. He won't ever be a plus fielder IMHO, but it's good enough if you hit as well as he has in stretches. 

He is pretty much the average Twins infielder brought in from AAA, there has been few even barely average.

Put him at third, and see how he does for a few weeks.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I concur that the jury is still out on Miranda. In his rookie year, he was a key cog and perhaps even carried the team for part of two months. Last year, he was almost an All-Star at the break, but wasn't even a replacement player afterwards. It might be the injuries--shoulder, back and a pretty serious beaning--but we said the same thing for Alex Kirilloff for years and only saw a complete hitter in glimpses. The toolchest isn't full--he's really slow, with an average at-best arm and so-so power--so he has to maximize what he's good at, which is hitting the ball hard. 

This thread was started about defense and Miranda worked very hard to be an acceptable third baseman. I'm confident he would do the same at first if allowed. He won't ever be a plus fielder IMHO, but it's good enough if you hit as well as he has in stretches. 

I will make two replies.  I have little doubt that he worked hard to be an acceptable third baseman.  The fact that it appears he is no longer being asked to be one may be an indication that his work may not have been enough.  As far as maximizing hitting the ball hard, we had a guy here for almost 8 years who hit the ball harder than any Twin since # 3.  Was fun as hell to watch when he DID hit the ball hard.  Seems like when it comes to guys who hit the ball hard the team places a certain level of value on doing it with some sort of consistency.  Again, Miranda has not proven to do that.  Maybe he will.  Maybe he won't.

 

[Physics Guy]

On 2/20/2025 at 9:28 PM, dxpavelka said:

After 3 years in the big leagues Koskie had a 11.8 WAR.  AND he was a plus defender.  AND he was a plus defender.  Miranda 3 years in has a 2.3 WAR and may never be an average defender.

 

Through his age-26 season (same as Miranda), Koskie had a 2.3 WAR.  Hmmm....

[Physics Guy]

4 minutes ago, Physics Guy said:

Through his age-26 season (same as Miranda), Koskie had a 2.3 WAR.  Hmmm....

Not saying he will turn in to Koskie, just saying that Koskie wasn't that player until he was given opportunity.  I'm skeptical he will turn into anything close the Koskie, but even if he isn't he can still be a productive player.  He cleared 1.7 WAR with an awful second half.  I think he could pretty easily be a mid-2 WAR player if he stays healthy.