Report: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres Have Had Conversations Around Christian Vázquez, Dylan Cease

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

As should be the case, if the Padres are hinting that they would part with him.

The Twins aren't going to win a bidding war using any conceivable prospect capital, and Vazquez is nowhere near enough of an inducement.  I'm giving this Twins-specific trade rumor little attention.

I have a message to relay to you from Christian Vazquez's mother:

[amjgt]

32 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Are the Twins really a WS candidate in 2025? I''m not giving up team control for young promising arms for one year unless that is the case.

With a rotation of Cease, Lopez, Ober, and Ryan, a well regarded bullpen and a little bit of health luck from the lineup.... why not?

Who's scary in the AL? Yankees got worse. Astros got worse. Cleveland got worse. Mariners and Orioles treaded water. Rangers got.... healthier.

[amjgt]

6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I sincerely hope you are 100% correct regarding Falvey's thoughts here.

Obviously I have no idea, but thinking about it logically, it makes sense.

Why would he have any confidence regarding his job security, with a new owner, if the Twins just have a mediocre 2025?

I think he's done a good job the last handful of years, but would a new owner? Probably not. Especially with the turd that was 2024 and what, to this point, has been a completely uninspiring offseason running into 2025.

[FargoFanMan]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I could see trading Vasquez, Paddack, and a good pitching or hitting prospect along with cash for Cease and a LH reliever like Jacob or Morejon. The relievers are younger and with more control. We get the younger reliever and a year of Cease, they get a catcher and Paddack for this year and a starting pitcher with upside. Twins eat half to 2/3 of the Vasquez salary so they dump $10.5-$12.5m and pick up $13.5-$15m. I wouldn't include Festa, Matthews or SWR, but Morris, Lewis, and  Raya would all be potentially available. Would be willing to part with a hitter instead, not in addition, if that's what the Pads want since most of their good prospects are pitchers. The hitter couldn't be Jenkins, Emma, or Keaschall but anyone else is available, including Martin, Keirsey, and Helman. Also would be willing to consider more than 1 prospect if they are farther down the list in quality. Would love the prospect to be Varland but I don't think he has that kind of value unless combined with someone else.   

I think one of Emma or Keaschall is the lynchpin here unless they’re looking to add more pitching. Their top 30 is littered with pitching that will be ready in 1 or 2 years if not this year. Vazquez, Paddack and a top 10 prospect for Cease is probably the asking price. If talks have slowed the Padres either want salary relief or a higher end prospect is my guess. If it’s one prospect and it isn’t Jenkins, which I don’t believe it would be, I’d pull the trigger. Cease would immediately put the Twins in the top 5 rotations in baseball. Got be willing to give something to get something. 

[FargoFanMan]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

I'm not interested in one year of Cease for Ryan or Ober (both of whom are proven starters with far more team control), as he isn't that much better that he makes the Twins a World Series contender. Even Festa would be hard to swallow. When Chicago dealt him, he had two years of team control, and now it is half that, so the 'haul' in return should be less. Besides, the Padres need a catcher. I'd suggest a couple of lower level prospects plus Vasquez.

It’s not gonna be Ryan or Ober for one year of Cease. One has to assume that the Twins front office is not completely inept. Remember, these anre professional FO people. Not the computer on MLB the show. Also, the Padres don’t want salary. They want a high end prospect or salary relief. That’s the M.O. in a trade like this. They need a starting catcher, a LF and a SP. Talks have slowed cause they want what the twins don’t want to give up. Money or a high end prospect. I’m guessing either Emma or Keaschall. 

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I have a message to relay to you from Christian Vazquez's mother:

Does Christian have any aunts who are unattached?  Asking for a friend.  A very weird friend.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Looks like many of us are willing to give up a high end prospect with Vasquez, Paddack, and cash for Cease., but we disagree on how high end we're willing to go. I think if the Pads would include a young, cost controlled effective so far LH reliever with upside like Jacob or Morejon, I'd be willing to include any prospect except Jenkins, Emma, and Festa, or 2 from the list that doesn't include those 3, Matthews, Raya, or Keaschall. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

. I’m guessing either Emma or Keaschall. 

I'm guessing that most, not all, people who come to Twins Daily have identified offense as a key need going into 2025. Both Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall figure to contribute this summer. When is open for discussion. 

If pitching is what people want the Twins could easily interest Pittsburgh in Wallner and Seattle would probably trade Bryce Miller for Royce Lewis. Heck, the Mariners might even throw in Harry Ford if the Twins sent back Louie Varland and a low level prospect. But the Twins need bats and should not do those trades.

Dylan Cease has one year left before he walks into the free agency world. His salary is $13.75 million according Fangraphs. Giving up any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Festa, or Matthews would be foolish. Both Pittsburgh and Seattle will trade guys who have years of control left and are on MLB minimum contracts. 

It is fine to go with other combinations that do not pull from the top or from our prospective batting hopes. The cost for one year of Cease will not include a team's best prospect.

[High heat]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

SWR is a proven MLB pitcher. Not giving him up for one year of Cease. Festa has huge upside - again, no deal. Maybe Matthews.

Are the Twins really a WS candidate in 2025? I''m not giving up team control for young promising arms for one year unless that is the case.

I’d be ok giving up SWR Vasquez and a middle 10 to teens prospect like Gonzalez and a guy like Larnach or Martin for Cease.  

I would see that as a giant steel!  

 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Can this phrase die already? Do the Padres not have such "self imposed" payroll limits? 

 

As you imply, wouldn't all teams' payroll limits be "self-imposed"? Because ain't nobody else putting limits on the Dodgers' spending!

[sweetmusicviola16]

I for one am very intrigued and interested that we would even discuss and consider acquiring Dylan Cease. He's one of the best SP in baseball. I too am hesitant to trade Vazquez. Not because I'm a big fan but because of the quality of depth behind him. If we traded Vazquez and could either sign Diaz/McCann or trade for another more established backup C I would expect this. Can't go into a season with Gasper as the backup C.

With that as the backdrop I propose Paddack, Vazquez and Kyle DeBarge and Tanner Schobel for Cease then signing of Diaz/McCann. Emma Rodriguez? No. I'd like to see him start the year at Target. I'm also in favor of bringing Arraez back in an expanded deal. Arraez for Gabriel Gonzalez. Pads get salary relief and we get a year of Arraez for a prospect. Budget? I'm sick of the budget hogging every discussion on here. Go for it. Cease, Arraez, Rodriguez and Keaschell in a couple of months and we then have an AL WS contender for 2025.

[SF Twins Fan]

2 hours ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!   

Why trade one (or more) of our top prospects, with whom we have several seasons of control, for one year of Cease?

We should Cease such thinking.  

Our biggest need is a righthanded hitting outfielder/first baseman.  Obviously it would have to be affordable, someone such as Mark Canha.  Oh wait, he's available?  Really?

 

 

There is only 5 spots in the MLB rotation and the Twins currently have Lopez, Ober, Ryan SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews all basically ready for the MLB.  They also have the following pitchers either already at AAA or ready for it Morris, Raya, Culpepper, Lewis.  Six of those guys ready for the Twins rotation are either signed long term or have team control for a long time.  There are only so many spots available and before some of these other guys potentially flame out they should be used in trades.

[sweetmusicviola16]

People automatically assume that Cease would be a one year rental. With new ownership coming aboard that might not be so. What bigger opening splash could Ishbia's do? Acquiring him now and extending him this season would also allow for the possibility of a bigger next off season trade of maybe Joe Ryan. Get this done Zoll.

[Rufus]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Hardly. That leaves Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, as top 100 prospects and then there's younger prospects like Culpepper and Soto who are highly rated.

I could see maybe doing this deal if this team had a realistic shot at doing something this year. But come on this is a team filled with holes.  They have other areas to address before they worry about spending big on an expiring contract for the rotation.   Unless they think they can get him and flip him in a bigger deal.

[jorgenswest]

Corbin Burnes was traded for shortstop Joey Ortiz and LHP D.L. Hall, as well as the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Hall was 25 and maybe lost a little of his prospect status. Ortiz also made appearance in the bottom half of the top 100 prospects. Burnes was coming off a season of 3.5 rWAR (3 year of 13.1) and Cease is coming off a season of 4.2 WAR (3 year of 13.0).

I think a Cease deal would approach the Burnes deal. That is a lot to give up. I get the arguments about the offense isn’t contender caliber. I would go for it anyway and trade Keaschall with a pitcher. Hall did drop in status and looked more like a reliever at the time of the trade. I would start by offering Keaschall and Varland. They will probably get a better offer so it might take a better pitcher or third player. I would consider doing either.

As for the salary arguments I don’t think a deal for Cease and the increase in payroll would drop the franchise value. It might even make a potential owner more interested. The Pohlad’s could be committing someone else’s money at this point. A deal like this might be a sign that the Pohlad’s don’t expect to own the Twins too much longer. 

[FargoFanMan]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm guessing that most, not all, people who come to Twins Daily have identified offense as a key need going into 2025. Both Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall figure to contribute this summer. When is open for discussion. 

If pitching is what people want the Twins could easily interest Pittsburgh in Wallner and Seattle would probably trade Bryce Miller for Royce Lewis. Heck, the Mariners might even throw in Harry Ford if the Twins sent back Louie Varland and a low level prospect. But the Twins need bats and should not do those trades.

Dylan Cease has one year left before he walks into the free agency world. His salary is $13.75 million according Fangraphs. Giving up any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Festa, or Matthews would be foolish. Both Pittsburgh and Seattle will trade guys who have years of control left and are on MLB minimum contracts. 

It is fine to go with other combinations that do not pull from the top or from our prospective batting hopes. The cost for one year of Cease will not include a team's best prospect.

But do Pittsburgh and Seattle have a need for a $10M catcher? Or… a $7.5M pitcher as well? The answer is no. The padres need a catcher. They probably need a swing arm like Paddack for depth. The padres would like a corner OF.  The Padres are not looking to take on lots of salary. The padres top 20 is full of pitchers who will be ready soon. The padres will not resign Dylan Cease. Vazquez provides a catcher. Paddack provides depth if/until Musgrove is back and also helps bridge the gap to the bevy of young pitchers coming through. In a Vázquez and Paddack for Cease trade the padres take on roughly $3.75M.  That trade doesn’t match up talent wise or money wise so in return the padres would want one of 2 things. They would want A) the twins to pay down that $17.5M that they’re incurring so that they could sign an OF or another pitcher or B) include one of Emma or Keaschall to balance this trade. The talks have slowed because the Twins probably don’t want to do any of those but in order to get Cease that’s what needs to happen. We assume they won’t pay down the contracts so does Cease provide enough value this year to justify one of those 2 prospects. That is really the question. Does that value of having a top of the rotation guy for one year justify trading a top 100 prospect? I think it’s the best scenario you get in trading Paddack and Vazquez. Gotta give something to get something.

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I for one am very intrigued and interested that we would even discuss and consider acquiring Dylan Cease. He's one of the best SP in baseball. I too am hesitant to trade Vazquez. Not because I'm a big fan but because of the quality of depth behind him. If we traded Vazquez and could either sign Diaz/McCann or trade for another more established backup C I would expect this. Can't go into a season with Gasper as the backup C.

With that as the backdrop I propose Paddack, Vazquez and Kyle DeBarge and Tanner Schobel for Cease then signing of Diaz/McCann. Emma Rodriguez? No. I'd like to see him start the year at Target. I'm also in favor of bringing Arraez back in an expanded deal. Arraez for Gabriel Gonzalez. Pads get salary relief and we get a year of Arraez for a prospect. Budget? I'm sick of the budget hogging every discussion on here. Go for it. Cease, Arraez, Rodriguez and Keaschell in a couple of months and we then have an AL WS contender for 2025.

This would be a great trade if we were playing OOTP baseball! Other than that it’s a fantasy.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

As you imply, wouldn't all teams' payroll limits be "self-imposed"? Because ain't nobody else putting limits on the Dodgers' spending!

 

Exactly right. 

[FargoFanMan]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Corbin Burnes was traded for shortstop Joey Ortiz and LHP D.L. Hall, as well as the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Hall was 25 and maybe lost a little of his prospect status. Ortiz also made appearance in the bottom half of the top 100 prospects. Burnes was coming off a season of 3.5 rWAR (3 year of 13.1) and Cease is coming off a season of 4.2 WAR (3 year of 13.0).

I think a Cease deal would approach the Burnes deal. That is a lot to give up. I get the arguments about the offense isn’t contender caliber. I would go for it anyway and trade Keaschall with a pitcher. Hall did drop in status and looked more like a reliever at the time of the trade. I would start by offering Keaschall and Varland. They will probably get a better offer so it might take a better pitcher or third player. I would consider doing either.

As for the salary arguments I don’t think a deal for Cease and the increase in payroll would drop the franchise value. It might even make a potential owner more interested. The Pohlad’s could be committing someone else’s money at this point. A deal like this might be a sign that the Pohlad’s don’t expect to own the Twins too much longer. 

That thinking is exactly right. You gotta know they’re asking for the top 3. They’ll never budge on Jenkins cause he’s a legit star but Emma and Keaschall have them thinking. That’s a killer starting 5. Pablo, Cease, Ryan, Ober, SWR/Festa with Mathew’s waiting in the wings. That’s a legit playoff rotation!

[arby58]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

With a rotation of Cease, Lopez, Ober, and Ryan, a well regarded bullpen and a little bit of health luck from the lineup.... why not?

Who's scary in the AL? Yankees got worse. Astros got worse. Cleveland got worse. Mariners and Orioles treaded water. Rangers got.... healthier.

Anything is possible, the Royals showed that last year. That said, a 20 win jump is unlikely. I think this team is more likely to be there in 2026 than 2025.

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, SF Twins Fan said:

There is only 5 spots in the MLB rotation and the Twins currently have Lopez, Ober, Ryan SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews all basically ready for the MLB.  They also have the following pitchers either already at AAA or ready for it Morris, Raya, Culpepper, Lewis.  Six of those guys ready for the Twins rotation are either signed long term or have team control for a long time.  There are only so many spots available and before some of these other guys potentially flame out they should be used in trades.

I don’t think SD wants a pitcher in return but this thinking exactly!!! How many times did we watch Terry Ryan sit on his hands and not trade prospects only for those guys to flame out or only develop into marginal players. This is what everyone here wants. The big off-season swing to bring in a difference maker. A difference maker costs you top prospects though. 

[FargoFanMan]

4 hours ago, amjgt said:

Obviously I have no idea, but thinking about it logically, it makes sense.

Why would he have any confidence regarding his job security, with a new owner, if the Twins just have a mediocre 2025?

I think he's done a good job the last handful of years, but would a new owner? Probably not. Especially with the turd that was 2024 and what, to this point, has been a completely uninspiring offseason running into 2025.

Yep!

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

But do Pittsburgh and Seattle have a need for a $10M catcher? Or… a $7.5M pitcher as well? The answer is no. The padres need a catcher. They probably need a swing arm like Paddack for depth. The padres would like a corner OF.  The Padres are not looking to take on lots of salary. The padres top 20 is full of pitchers who will be ready soon. The padres will not resign Dylan Cease. Vazquez provides a catcher. Paddack provides depth if/until Musgrove is back and also helps bridge the gap to the bevy of young pitchers coming through. In a Vázquez and Paddack for Cease trade the padres take on roughly $3.75M.  That trade doesn’t match up talent wise or money wise so in return the padres would want one of 2 things. They would want A) the twins to pay down that $17.5M that they’re incurring so that they could sign an OF or another pitcher or B) include one of Emma or Keaschall to balance this trade. The talks have slowed because the Twins probably don’t want to do any of those but in order to get Cease that’s what needs to happen. We assume they won’t pay down the contracts so does Cease provide enough value this year to justify one of those 2 prospects. That is really the question. Does that value of having a top of the rotation guy for one year justify trading a top 100 prospect? I think it’s the best scenario you get in trading Paddack and Vazquez. Gotta give something to get something.

Maybe I wrote too much which obscured my message. The Twins need bats. They don't need pitching if it cost any bats. It would be beyond foolish to trade any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Keaschall for Cease in consideration of the Twins need for bats.

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

If they trade Vazquez, the season is over. 

If Vazquez and his .575 OPS are the key to survival. 

The season is already over. 

[TwinsDr2021]

It feels like people on here don't want the Twins to really win or at least try to really win. They embrace we are the money poor twins and really next year is our year (I have read that on this site for the last 4 years) How many articles on this site have been written about Aces/#1 pitchers? if this rumor is close to being true the Twins have a chance to get one (albeit for 1 year) and people don't want to take a chance, why because that would leave the Twins with no back up catcher? WTF! Because it increases the payroll slightly? Because Festa may become the next Jax? Because Matthews becomes Varland?  Do I want to have to give up Festa, Matthews, SWR? No but a realist understands that salary dump of Vazquez and Paddack isn't returning a darn thing (even if you throw in non prospects that other teams could have had for free)

In reality they are not including Ober and Ryan(unless the SD is adding to the trade) and there is no way they are trading Jenkins, Erod and Keaschall. Anybody in the organization should be available, Obviously there are some prospects that if SD wants it forces them to take Paddack back, if SD requires any of these guys listed above you walk away.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

18 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I had the thought that AJ Preller gets a lot of press for being this great dynamic trader but does it actually pay off in the major leagues?  This is a damning list, AJ Preller is actually actively bad at this.  I had totally forgotten the Trea Turner as PTBNL one year after drafting him in the 1st round. 

Get him Derek!

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1348g0n/introducing_the_allpreller_trade_team/

Also a good list to refer to when we want our guys to just do something. 

 

Reading this train wreck list of players traded by San Diego makes me very grateful for Falvey.

[Matthew Lenz]

20 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

The price SD paid Chicago a few years ago.  Do you know how many years of control SD was getting at the time?  The price to acquire him should depend on that.

I don't know if I'd want to trade Ober or Ryan for 1 year of Cease.  I'd also be hesitant to trade Festa for 1 year but any of the other pitchers at AAA I'd be ok trading depending on what the remainder of the trade looked like.

It was just a year ago that he was traded, so a difference for sure but not substantive. It sounds like multiple teams are interested so that is going to drive up his cost, as well. I'd assume that he will cost less than a year ago but not by much.

[Matthew Lenz]

20 hours ago, arby58 said:

I'm not interested in one year of Cease for Ryan or Ober (both of whom are proven starters with far more team control), as he isn't that much better that he makes the Twins a World Series contender. Even Festa would be hard to swallow. When Chicago dealt him, he had two years of team control, and now it is half that, so the 'haul' in return should be less. Besides, the Padres need a catcher. I'd suggest a couple of lower level prospects plus Vasquez.

While saying "half" is correct, it feels a little disingenuous when we're talking about the difference of a year. As I prefaced in the article, I used that trade "for reference"..not to say that is what it will cost. That said, his cost will be driven up with multiple teams interested. Regardless of the number of teams interested, there is zero chance the Padres deal him for a "couple of lower level prospects" and Vázquez.

[Matthew Lenz]

19 hours ago, amjgt said:

Worth at least mentioning because I haven't seen it mentioned above, that Cease would likely (though not definitely) garner a compensatory pick if he left in free agency after 2025. That needs to be baked into what a team would give up to get him. 

This is a good nugget and one I didn't think of. Thank you!

[Matthew Lenz]

15 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

There is only 5 spots in the MLB rotation and the Twins currently have Lopez, Ober, Ryan SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews all basically ready for the MLB.  They also have the following pitchers either already at AAA or ready for it Morris, Raya, Culpepper, Lewis.  Six of those guys ready for the Twins rotation are either signed long term or have team control for a long time.  There are only so many spots available and before some of these other guys potentially flame out they should be used in trades.

You can NEVER have enough pitching. Only three (or four if you count SWR...I don't yet) of those guys have shown the promise to be long time contributors in the bigs. I like Festa and Matthews and think we have a good pipeline in the minors but development is never guaranteed. You don't pass up on a guy like Cease simply because you've got other guys (who are all currently worse than Cease and most don't the upside to be as good) MLB ready or close to it.