Why the Twins Might Lock Up Their Top Prospects Before Their Debuts

[Cody Christie]

Baseball has seen a trend in recent years, with some teams locking up their top prospects to long-term deals before the players debuted. Would the Twins consider a similar strategy with one of their top prospects?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson / St. Paul Saints (Photo of Emmanuel Rodriguez)

This strategy might make sense for the Minnesota Twins as they evaluate the future of potential cornerstone prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. While this approach comes with risk, it also provides an opportunity for long-term cost control and stability for key pieces of a team’s future core.

Recent Precedents Around Baseball
Locking up players early in their careers is no longer revolutionary. Several teams have handed out lucrative contracts to prospects with little or no major-league experience. Most recently, the Tigers signed Colt Keith to a six-year, $28.6-million deal, securing a highly regarded young infielder before his debut. Last season, he was a global top-30 prospect and posted a 96 OPS+ in 148 games. Keith's contract reflects a growing willingness by teams to bet on their scouting and development systems to avoid escalating arbitration costs down the road.

Another high-profile example came from the Milwaukee Brewers, who signed Jackson Chourio, one of baseball's top outfield prospects, to an eight-year, $82 million deal. Chourio was entering his age-20 season and was considered one of baseball’s top prospects. In 2024, he hit .275/.327/.464 with a 117 OPS+, helping him finish in third place for the NL Rookie of the Year. For a small-market team like Milwaukee, his long-term deal provides some stability for a team that wants to stay competitive. 

These signings follow earlier deals like the White Sox extending Luis Robert Jr. for six years and $50 million before his rookie season and the Astros’ infamous Jon Singleton contract, which netted him $10 million over five years despite limited production. While the Singleton deal remains a cautionary tale, some other contracts provide a model for teams like the Twins to consider extending their most promising talent.

The Twins’ Duo of Potential Future Stars
For Minnesota, the thought of extending one of their top prospects before a big-league debut starts with two names: Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Each player represents a potential building block for a team that must maximize its resources to compete in the AL Central for years.

Walker Jenkins: Following the Chourio Model
Jenkins, the Twins’ 2023 first-round pick, has perhaps the highest upside in the organization. As a left-handed hitting outfielder, he possesses a rare mix of power, athleticism, and makeup that has scouts dreaming of his five-tool talent. Jenkins finished last season at Double A, and his talent puts him in conversations with Chourio and other generational prospects. MLB Pipeline already ranks Jenkins as baseball’s No. 2 prospect, and that’s the same spot Chourio occupied last season. 

The Twins could see Jenkins as the perfect candidate for a Chourio-style deal because his talent warrants early investment. In 2024, he missed time with a leg injury at the beginning of the season, but that was the only thing that slowed him down. In 82 games, he hit .282/.394/.439, with 32 extra-base hits and more walks (56) than strikeouts (47).  Betting on his ceiling now would involve risk, but it could also solidify Jenkins as the centerpiece of the franchise without having to navigate escalating costs later.

Emmanuel Rodriguez: Following the Robert Jr. Model
Rodriguez would be the top prospect in a lot of other farm systems, and he might be the Twins’ most intriguing prospect. His raw tools are undeniable, with elite on-base skills, plus power, and solid defensive ability in center field. He’s gotten on base over 42% of the time during his professional career, and last season, he slashed .280/.459/.567 in 47 games. Injuries have slowed his ascent, but when healthy, he’s been one of baseball’s most exciting prospects. 

Rodriguez’s profile resembles that of Luis Robert Jr. at a similar stage, with the enormous caveat that whereas Robert is one of baseball's most aggressive hitters, Rodriguez is one of its most passive. If the Twins believe in Rodriguez’s ability to remain healthy and develop into a top-tier outfielder, a pre-debut extension could provide tremendous value. Robert’s was a six-year, $50-million deal, with club options for two additional years at $20 million per season. With Rodriguez’s injury history, the Twins might be able to work out a similar deal with the budding outfielder, despite the plate discipline that sets his floor much higher. 

Risks and Rewards for the Twins
For a mid-market team like Minnesota, cost certainty is everything. Signing a player like Rodriguez or Jenkins to a long-term deal before they debut may seem risky, but it allows the team to secure future stars at a fraction of what they might cost after breakout seasons. Early extensions also provide stability for the players, who receive life-changing money while forfeiting some financial upside.

Of course, extending players before they’ve proven themselves comes with its share of risks. Injuries, stalled development, or unexpected struggles could leave the team on the hook for millions of dollars. Singleton’s deal with Houston remains a prime example of how this strategy can backfire. Also, Keith’s deal in Detroit didn’t pay off in its first season. However, the Twins have shown confidence in their player development system under Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll. If they believe in the futures of Jenkins and Rodriguez, locking them up early might be worth the gamble.

The key variable in cases like these is always leverage, and there we find the separator between Jenkins and Rodriguez. Just 17 months ago, Jenkins was the fifth overall pick in the MLB Draft. The Twins shelled out a $7.14 million as a signing bonus, meaning that if has spent $5 every minute since he signed, he still has over $3.4 million in the bank. He is, although not generationally and ostentatiously so quite yet, very rich. Rodriguez, by contrast, got a bonus of $2.75 million from the Twins as a teenager, in 2019. That still makes a person rich, but unless he was very, very smart with that money, he's not anywhere near as comfortable as Jenkins. A long-term deal, with its guarantees and some upfront cash as a signing bonus, is likely to have more appeal to Rodriguez. That works out nicely, too, because he's the one positioned to contribute to the Twins almost right away.

Signing Jenkins or Rodriguez to a pre-debut extension would make headlines, while signaling the Twins’ belief in their young core and commitment to building a sustainable winner. While the risks are real, so are the rewards. If Minnesota plays its cards right, these deals could set the foundation for long-term success. 

---

Which prospect makes the best extension candidate? Are the risks worth the reward? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

The Twins haven’t really done this before. I can’t see it happening at all with Jenkins, if I understand his agent to be Scott Boras. Is that correct still?

Who is Rodriguez’s agent?

[Whitey333]

Bad idea for  oth the Twins and the players mentioned.  Way too much risk for potential.  These players have proved very little so far.  Just a lot of unproven hype thus far.  And for the players if they are as great and sure no misses by your estimates, they could be leaving a lot of money on the table.  Not to mention a potential team sale may have on this.  The team has control over these players for now.  Why reverse that at this early stage?

[Doctor Gast]

I've been a big advocate for locking up our key players. We are very strapped for money & I'd greatly prefer to spend our money on extending our key players than spending it on the Margots & Gallos outsiders. When Lewis came up I was all for extending him because beyond the tools he possesses there are the intangibles that made him very valuable to the Twins.  Even though of his injury setbacks which need to be figured into any transaction, he'd overcome those trials & still come out on top. I don't see those intangibles & character in E Rod or Jenkins so I'd hesitate to give out that preMLB extension. TB rarely gives out extensions but when they gave one to Wander Franco, that money completely changed his life for the worse. Sano was given a team-friendly extension, he became fat & lazy. Emma has a lot of potential but there is still some doubt in how he'll react to MLB pitching. Those doubts about his staying on the field, hitting & his maturity to handle that life-changing money make me even more hesitant. IMO there is no hurry for E Rod, it'd be prudish to be very patient with him before offering him an extension. There was the same talk about extending Kiriloff.

[In My La Z boy]

The team being for sale has to affect Falvey's ability to make large long term financial decisions right now. I'm not sure what history says about how aggressive teams "lame duck" front offices are when ownership has announced their team is for sale? Common sense tells me we're not making any bold, out of the box, long term decisions this off-season as the Pohlad's try to sell the team. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are in limbo right now, so no deals. 

[chpettit19]

Jenkins isn't signing any deal this offseason. He's not close enough to debuting. He's more likely to be a pre-arb extension guy because if he's as good as we all hope he has a shot at debuting at the end of this year, but he's not a Chourio type who's ready for opening day. 

Emma fits this mold of pre-debut deal prospect, though. Ready to debut and is just a question of how confident the team is in their projections for him. If you're supremely confident like the Brewers were with Chourio then you try to lock him up and put him in LF on opening day. If not, you wait. 

The sale is certainly not nothing, but I don't know that it means they're shut down for business. What if they aren't able to sell? They just waste an entire offseason? The reports coming out recently are that the Twins are still gathering all their info to even have an idea of what they think they're worth. I believe Falvey was the one quoted as saying they're still on Step 1 of the process which is all internal and has nothing to do with talking to prospective buyers. If they come out of Step 1 with a 2.2 billion asking price and Step 2 has buyers coming in with a 1.5 billion bid how long are they going to refuse to sign anyone long term for? On a 1.5 billion bid how much does an $8 million per year 8 year extension for a top-40 global prospect scare you? What if it's 12 a year for 8 years? If the Brewers went up for sale today does the Chourio deal help or hurt them? I think we're overselling what an individual contract means in this sale.

[IndianaTwin]

Whether talking about people who haven't debuted or players in their Arb years, the articles about extensions don't seem to have acknowledged a key dynamic: 

A) If the "budget" truly is the magic $130M number that keeps getting bandied about and they are at $140M-ish, it makes little sense to hand out an extension that increases the 2024 budget. 

B) If any of these extensions do make sense for a FO taking the long-term view, perhaps this magic $130M number isn't so set in stone after all. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Cavaco, Miguel Sano, Alex Kirilloff. Gordon, Sabato, Levi Michael vs. Buxton, Lewis, Lee , two years of Sonny Gray ( traded for Chase Petty, the Reds 8th ranked prospect). I hate to be a downer, but the Twins should not sign Jenkins or Erod to a long term deal yet. The probability of handcuffing a historically limited payroll is too great. But the main reason the Twins won't sign these two prospects is that the owners are trying to sell the team and new owners may not like this risky proposition.

[LambchoP]

I don't like it. Too much risk for a team that had to be perfect with their money. Jenkins and Rodriguez are likely going to be decent to great everyday players, but they could also end up another Buxton. Great when healthy, but only on the field half the time. Could even go worse and they end up not even being everyday players. Being a teams top prospect does not guarantee success at the major league level.

[saviking]

But that would require the Twins to spend money. Maybe if they would accept Mexican Pesos ..

[sweetmusicviola16]

The team is on a budget, in a budget crunch and for sale. I don't see this happening.

[bean5302]

The Twins are selling. They're not going to commit new owners to long term contracts.

Just for the record, Chourio was in AAA before he got extended, was a legitimate CF, and had a better track record with better tools than Rodriguez or Jenkins. 

[Muppet]

Let's wait a year. If this Matt Borgschulte guy ends up being magic and is able to fix Larnach, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Julian, and Wallner and turn them back into the players they were when they were in the minors .... Then we can have hope that the next wave of prospects aren't going to turn into pumpkins as soon as they say "I don't do slumps." But for now, I'd hate to have any of those guys locked up for 4-6 years and millions of $s. 

[Blyleven2011]

Think Dobnak and we know how that turned out  ...

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Think Dobnak and we know how that turned out  ...

I don't see ownership doing an extension with anyone while they try to sell. But Dobnak was never a high ceiling prospect. Or any kind of prospect. His deal has nothing to do with these decisions.

[arby58]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just for the record, Chourio was in AAA before he got extended, was a legitimate CF, and had a better track record with better tools than Rodriguez or Jenkins. 

Chourio played 6 games in AAA.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Think Dobnak and we know how that turned out  ...

Absolutely nobody thinks Randy Dobnak and Walker Jenkins are the same type of talent. However, if Walker Jenkins says he will sign for Randy Dobnak's miniscule contract they would have to be brain-dead stupid not to give him that deal.

I would settle for the team giving long-term contracts to players like Jeffers and Duran who have already proven themselves. This front office has been paralyzed since before the 2024 trade deadline in July.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Let’s say they do this with Rodriguez. Sign him to a deal like Milwaukee did with Chourio and have him up on opening day. I don’t personally see it happening, but let’s play this out.

Who is getting traded first then; Larnach or Wallner? 

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let’s say they do this with Rodriguez. Sign him to a deal like Milwaukee did with Chourio and have him up on opening day. I don’t personally see it happening, but let’s play this out.

Who is getting traded first then; Larnach or Wallner? 

Wallner's ceiling is higher, so I'd trade Larnach. Agree it's unlikely to be happening, though.

[Blyleven2011]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Absolutely nobody thinks Randy Dobnak and Walker Jenkins are the same type of talent. However, if Walker Jenkins says he will sign for Randy Dobnak's miniscule contract they would have to be brain-dead stupid not to give him that deal.

I would settle for the team giving long-term contracts to players like Jeffers and Duran who have already proven themselves. This front office has been paralyzed since before the 2024 trade deadline in July.

I'd say they are gun shy since the trades at 2022 deadline didn't work out ...

Dobnak is not as talented as Jenkins  , that dobnak out of the box contract was a head scratcher to lock up ...

[mnfireman]

Juan Soto earned around $80 MM while under team control, Vlad Guerrero will have earned around $75 MM while under team control; if the team thinks that Jenkins and/or Emma are these types of talent, those are the starting figures on a 6 year deal (team control). To get the deals out to 8 or 10 years another $40 - $80 MM ($20 MM/year) would have to be added - 8 years/$120 MM could be very team/player friendly and both players could still hit the FA market at age 29/30.

Let's get the ownership issue figured out first...

[Cory Engelhardt]

55 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Wallner's ceiling is higher, so I'd trade Larnach. Agree it's unlikely to be happening, though.

Counterpoint; if Rodriguez comes up and shows he will stick, AND Jenkins debuts this year (he has already made AA) then both Larnach and Wallner will potentially have to prove they can stay right?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let’s say they do this with Rodriguez. Sign him to a deal like Milwaukee did with Chourio and have him up on opening day. I don’t personally see it happening, but let’s play this out.

Who is getting traded first then; Larnach or Wallner? 

This depends on a several factors. Do the Twins have anything in the works with Boston for an outfielder? Who is calling and offering what in return? Will San Diego send Cease for Larnach? Will Pittsburgh send Jones for Wallner? The Twins have a few options in the outfield and several of them require patience with young players. Will they have any patience? Emmanuel. Walker, and Luke Keaschall may all step up as better options in the outfield than either of Larnach or Wallner. This is difficult because right now Larnach has made some major improvements in his batting approach and Wallner is one very dangerous hitter putting up really strong OPS numbers. I think the biggest question is whether Falvey plans anything at all other than ST invites to players on milb contracts. Will he? I would put Emmanuel in the outfield now.

[arby58]

49 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Counterpoint; if Rodriguez comes up and shows he will stick, AND Jenkins debuts this year (he has already made AA) then both Larnach and Wallner will potentially have to prove they can stay right?

That's two big ifs - but since they are all left-handed hitters, . . .

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let’s say they do this with Rodriguez. Sign him to a deal like Milwaukee did with Chourio and have him up on opening day. I don’t personally see it happening, but let’s play this out.

Who is getting traded first then; Larnach or Wallner? 

Why would they trade either of them? Why wouldn't Rodriguez be the opening day LFer and soon to be CFer when Buxton gets hurt, Larnach the opening day DH, and Wallner the opening day RFer? Why would you trade either of those players if Rodriguez makes the opening day roster?

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they trade either of them? Why wouldn't Rodriguez be the opening day LFer and soon to be CFer when Buxton gets hurt, Larnach the opening day DH, and Wallner the opening day RFer? Why would you trade either of those players if Rodriguez makes the opening day roster?

Because I also think they will add a 1b/dh this offseason. 

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they trade either of them? Why wouldn't Rodriguez be the opening day LFer and soon to be CFer when Buxton gets hurt, Larnach the opening day DH, and Wallner the opening day RFer? Why would you trade either of those players if Rodriguez makes the opening day roster?

You only have so many spaces for left-handed hitters, unless they can show they are capable of hitting left handed pitching. For Larnach and Wallner, that has not been proven.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

You only have so many spaces for left-handed hitters, unless they can show they are capable of hitting left handed pitching. For Larnach and Wallner, that has not been proven.

You should go look at Wallner's upper minors numbers against lefties. He's very much shown he can hit lefties when give the chance. The reason there's only so many spaces for left-handed hitters with the Twins is because they force it to be that way. That is not a situation you're going to sell me on. He's never going to prove he can hit lefties if you constantly fill the roster with short-side platoon bats to avoid ever giving him the chance. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Because I also think they will add a 1b/dh this offseason. 

They very well might, but it's not going to be one that is likely to hit better than any of the 3 guys we're discussing here. Santana isn't a better hitter overall or especially against righties. Goldschmidt is on his way out of the league. France hasn't been good in a couple years. Turner wasn't as good as Larnach last year and you'd expect him to be going down with Larnach still pointing up.

The Twins aren't shopping in the section of the free agent market that should have them trading cost controlled young players to open spots for 1 year vets.