Derek Falvey's Offseason Trade History Might be Better than You Think

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins have been pretty successful trading prospects for established big leaguers over the offseason under Derek Falvey. If you disagree, I invite you to read the list and then tell me I'm wrong.

Image courtesy of © David Berding-Imagn Images (Odorizzi), © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images (Palacios)

You know what, I’m tired of writing these intros. This is my seventh full trade review over the last two years. You know the drill. Here’s every time Derek Falvey has traded prospects for a veteran over the offseason in his career leading the Twins.

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 19th, 2024. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the full picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet.

Also, again, this list only contains offseason trades. If you want to go into the club's trade deadline buying history, you can do that here. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst.

2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota.
For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa, but debuted with Minnesota in 2022 after signing a minor league deal.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota.
Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes in it, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. The Twins also got a compensation pick for losing Gray to free agency, and that became infielder Kyle DeBarge. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot.

3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR), from Kansas City for Evan Sisk* (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz* (18.1 IP, 132 ERA+, 0.3 bWAR), +1.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove center fielder performed as expected defensively, and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz has pitched sparingly for Kansas City in 2023 and 2024 and Sisk spent the year at Triple-A but was added to the Royals' 40-man roster this month.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (611 PA, 91 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (22.0 IP, 67ERA+, -0.5 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota.
Without a starting-caliber shortstop (prior to the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He struggled in 2024, posting a negative bWAR while earning $6.3 million for a team that faced payroll constraints. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade, but he has since thrown 22 mediocre innings and is getting his first taste of MLB.

2/26/24: Minnesota acquires Manuel Margot (343 PA, 90 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), Rayne Doncon* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles for Noah Miller* (has not reached Los Angeles) -0.5 bWAR for Minnesota.
Acquired to be Byron Buxton insurance, the formerly terrific center field defender Margot was borderline unplayable defensively and even struggled in left. At the plate, he set the all-time record for most pinch hitting appearances without a single hit in an entire season. But hey, he hit lefties well if he started the game. The final outcome of this trade will be decided after Doncon and Miller’s Twins and Dodgers careers are decided, which might be in the 2030s. For now, I’ll leave it here.

1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Cristian Jimenez (did not reach Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is out of affiliated ball.

3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (151.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.7 bWAR), -1.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil just won Rookie of the Year after rebounding from years of fighting injury and might be a middle-of-the-rotation asset for New York for years to come. It would be awesome to have him around.

Overall WAR added: 13.9
On the whole, the Twins have been successful in buying over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop. Luis Gil stings, and the Manuel Margot one can only be described now as an oddity. However, beyond those two, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway.

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[Doctor Gast]

I'd be curious how many of those trades, especially those that turned out well for the Twins, Falvey actually initiated. It's easy to just say yes on a good deal another FO came up with.

CIN was heavily shopping Sonny Gray & they liked Chase Petty. Same with TB they were shopping Odorizzi, Palacio, he was a promising SS prospect that was hitting then. The big advantage came from tweaking them. Lugumina was protected from the Rule 5 draft because CIN wanted him. 

I wouldn't have traded for Cave in the 1st place nevertheless Gil wasn't a big prospect & Cave was the kind of hitter that the Twins liked. The Cave/ Gil deficit has just begun & looks like it'll be tremendous by the time Gil will be done at NYY.

[tony&rodney]

Thank you for working on this series.

A couple of things jump out to the reader, which you are already aware of, but others may overlook.

1. The paucity of offseason transactions is pretty telling. Seven offseason trades during the Falvey era seems small. Were the Twins really only one trade away each year? Only two of the trades, Odorizzi and Gray, brought in players who could be considered regulars. The others are all 12th and 13th depth pieces, which are also important to a team but not difference makers. These trades are needed but hardly shake the win column.

2. In consideration of the success of trading for Odo and Gray, why have the Twins been so resistant to further transactions of this type? In reverse, where are the trades of good players for better hopes, similar to the Cruz for Ryan trade?

I guess one must be clear about stating that there has been some success in the transactions in the past 7-8 years but the hesitancy to go further and take some gambles seems to be a barrier.

I'm not totally down on  the front office but while most see the current roster as capable of winning the AL Central, I see the Twins fighting to keep their record around .500 unless a few trades are completed to improve the team.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Thank you for working on this series.

A couple of things jump out to the reader, which you are already aware of, but others may overlook.

1. The paucity of offseason transactions is pretty telling. Seven offseason trades during the Falvey era seems small. Were the Twins really only one trade away each year? Only two of the trades, Odorizzi and Gray, brought in players who could be considered regulars. The others are all 12th and 13th depth pieces, which are also important to a team but not difference makers. These trades are needed but hardly shake the win column.

2. In consideration of the success of trading for Odo and Gray, why have the Twins been so resistant to further transactions of this type? In reverse, where are the trades of good players for better hopes, similar to the Cruz for Ryan trade?

I guess one must be clear about stating that there has been some success in the transactions in the past 7-8 years but the hesitancy to go further and take some gambles seems to be a barrier.

I'm not totally down on  the front office but while most see the current roster as capable of winning the AL Central, I see the Twins fighting to keep their record around .500 unless a few trades are completed to improve the team.

 

The Twins ended 2024 with the 4th most runs scored in the AL, but cratered down the stretch as injuries all mounted at once. Especially during the 162 game marathon, depth matters a lot.

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Especially during the 162 game marathon, depth matters a lot.

Uh, I specifically stated that depth is important and acknowledged its importance. Depth should not be the only criteria for making trades. Filling weaknesses in the regular lineup is also possible.

[old nurse]

I wouldn’t say Gil at 19 was a non prospect. Unknown as a Dominican player who already missed a year.. As I recall he was a flamethrower even then 

Did you conveniently forget the LaMonte Wade for Shaun Alexander 6.2 out for -0.5 back. Wade had not yet reached 130 AB   Still should have had rookie status

[Wizard11]

I think a more interesting analysis would be a look at all the trades that Falvey has made.  Wins such as Pablo and Joe Ryan, as well as clunkers like Tyler Mahle.   It seems like all conversations around the trading history start with using particular parameters to shade the perception in defense of a pro or con bias.  
I am amused by the commenter who attached importance to whether or not the trade was initiated by Falvey.  An unknowable element of zero relevance. Yes, let’s grade the FO on who first made the phone call. 🙄

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, Wizard11 said:

I think a more interesting analysis would be a look at all the trades that Falvey has made.  Wins such as Pablo and Joe Ryan, as well as clunkers like Tyler Mahle.

I could be incorrect, but I believe that the author(s) of these posts tackle the trades in chunks. The entire collection may make for a cumbersome entry due to its length. Bias may exist, but it is at least worth noting that us readers commonly bring a bias to the articles just as easily as the writers. I will say there are times when a writer clearly states their opinion, which seems fair. The reader is always free to disagree.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins ended 2024 with the 4th most runs scored in the AL, but cratered down the stretch as injuries all mounted at once. Especially during the 162 game marathon, depth matters a lot.

Yes we needed depth but where we didn't need depth they added, where they needed depth they did not. FO added a lot of depth in the BP, no one they added amounted to anything. They added to the OF and we didn't even use our untapped CFer Keirsey, who was chomping at the bit to come up but Margot blocked him. Buxton also boasted of his healthiest season for a long time. We got Santana we hardly used Miranda & Kiriloff. Correa was hurt for a while but we had Castro, Farmer & Lee to fill in. The biggest hole from the start of the season was SP that Gray left & they never rationally addressed that. Because of that hole we had to depend too much on our BP & rookies SPs that couldn't hold up. Later a hole at LHRP developed & they never really addressed that need. IMO we cratered at the end because we didn't have enough veteran leadership & chemistry to sustain us through that time besides our needs in pitching.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yes we needed depth but where we didn't need depth they added, where they needed depth they did not. FO added a lot of depth in the BP, no one they added amounted to anything. They added to the OF and we didn't even use our untapped CFer Keirsey, who was chomping at the bit to come up but Margot blocked him. Buxton also boasted of his healthiest season for a long time. We got Santana we hardly used Miranda & Kiriloff. Correa was hurt for a while but we had Castro, Farmer & Lee to fill in. The biggest hole from the start of the season was SP that Gray left & they never rationally addressed that. Because of that hole we had to depend too much on our BP & rookies SPs that couldn't hold up. Later a hole at LHRP developed & they never really addressed that need. IMO we cratered at the end because we didn't have enough veteran leadership & chemistry to sustain us through that time besides our needs in pitching.

The problem was hitting (at the end when the injuries mounted) fielding, and middle relief. in the last 6 weeks of the season they went from first in runs scored to fourth. The fielding was awful, and the fielding metrics don’t do justice to the pitching ERAs are ballooned by terrible fielding.

All the complaints about losing Gray, while it would have been awesome to have him, SP wasn’t the problem. Twins Sps were 5th in the AL in WAR, first in K rate, second in BB rate, 3rd in xFIP.

Edit to add, I think they added depth in the right places, but bad additions, exacerbated by incessant platooning

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I could be incorrect, but I believe that the author(s) of these posts tackle the trades in chunks. The entire collection may make for a cumbersome entry due to its length. Bias may exist, but it is at least worth noting that us readers commonly bring a bias to the articles just as easily as the writers. I will say there are times when a writer clearly states their opinion, which seems fair. The reader is always free to disagree.

IMO you're correct. Gregory is tackling every aspect in chunks. IMO it's a good way to look at & evaluate each aspect.

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

I think a more interesting analysis would be a look at all the trades that Falvey has made.  Wins such as Pablo and Joe Ryan, as well as clunkers like Tyler Mahle.   It seems like all conversations around the trading history start with using particular parameters to shade the perception in defense of a pro or con bias.  

I would love to write them up as a singular analysis. However, a list of 50ish trades isn't the most fun to read. Yesterday I covered the challenge trades and sells over the offseason:

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Did you conveniently forget the LaMonte Wade for Shaun Alexander 6.2 out for -0.5 back. Wade had not yet reached 130 AB   Still should have had rookie status

old nurse if you didn't see this yesterday I wanted to point it out here. Wade was still a rookie but he had made the majors so I included him in the challenge trade section

 

Anyway beyond that, at the Trade Deadline, I covered the times that Falvey has bought in-season:

And a year and a half ago I detailed every time the team sold at the deadline (I skipped this this year because the Twins were not going to be sellers): 

 

 

[FargoFanMan]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd be curious how many of those trades, especially those that turned out well for the Twins, Falvey actually initiated. It's easy to just say yes on a good deal another FO came up with.

CIN was heavily shopping Sonny Gray & they liked Chase Petty. Same with TB they were shopping Odorizzi, Palacio, he was a promising SS prospect that was hitting then. The big advantage came from tweaking them. Lugumina was protected from the Rule 5 draft because CIN wanted him. 

I wouldn't have traded for Cave in the 1st place nevertheless Gil wasn't a big prospect & Cave was the kind of hitter that the Twins liked. The Cave/ Gil deficit has just begun & looks like it'll be tremendous by the time Gil will be done at NYY.

I would guess he initiated zero. Probably because the modern front office doesn’t consist of one person sitting in his office tabulating all 6000 players in professional baseball and all their different scouting reports looking for a diamond in the rough. Between numerous scouts, managers, interns, coaches, assistant GM’s and the top brass. He probably has almost nothing to do with the whole scope of any single trade at all. Exactly just like any move made by any large corporation ever. 

[Doctor Gast]

6 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

I would guess he initiated zero. Probably because the modern front office doesn’t consist of one person sitting in his office tabulating all 6000 players in professional baseball and all their different scouting reports looking for a diamond in the rough. Between numerous scouts, managers, interns, coaches, assistant GM’s and the top brass. He probably has almost nothing to do with the whole scope of any single trade at all. Exactly just like any move made by any large corporation ever. 

So you are telling me all these guys except the GM contact these other guys except the GM & they work out a trade w/o any actions from the GM? Of course not, Yes, GMs have all these guys doing all the leg work. But the trade is the negotiations between the GMs. These other guys have nothing to do with the actual negotiations, although he might have an assistant sit-in. That's what I'm referring to, please don't detract from the meaning of what I said.

[dxpavelka]

57 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

So you are telling me all these guys except the GM contact these other guys except the GM & they work out a trade w/o any actions from the GM? Of course not, Yes, GMs have all these guys doing all the leg work. But the trade is the negotiations between the GMs. These other guys have nothing to do with the actual negotiations, although he might have an assistant sit-in. That's what I'm referring to, please don't detract from the meaning of what I said.

It seems somewhat unlikely to me that YOU would have any more inside knowledge of the inner workings of big league front offices than anyone else reading this article.  Just sayin

[IndianaTwin]

6 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

…I am amused by the commenter who attached importance to whether or not the trade was initiated by Falvey.  An unknowable element of zero relevance. Yes, let’s grade the FO on who first made the phone call. 🙄

(Quoting is my version of clicking “like” specifically on your last paragraph.)

[Eris]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

It seems somewhat unlikely to me that YOU would have any more inside knowledge of the inner workings of big league front offices than anyone else reading this article.  Just sayin

Many years go, I was able to attend a presentation by Sandy Alderson when he was GM with the Mets. He was asked how the Mets assessed trades. He indicated there was an ongoing continuous effort where employees (including interns) propose trade ideas with different organizations and these are presented and discussed at weekly meetings (more frequent approaching the trade deadline). In a way it is probably not much different than the discussions on TD regarding proposed trades (except they have internal data). 

[dxpavelka]

7 minutes ago, Eris said:

Many years go, I was able to attend a presentation by Sandy Alderson when he was GM with the Mets. He was asked how the Mets assessed trades. He indicated there was an ongoing continuous effort where employees (including interns) propose trade ideas with different organizations and these are presented and discussed at weekly meetings (more frequent approaching the trade deadline). In a way it is probably not much different than the discussions on TD regarding proposed trades (except they have internal data). 

that and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

It seems somewhat unlikely to me that YOU would have any more inside knowledge of the inner workings of big league front offices than anyone else reading this article.  Just sayin

I'm not talking about some weird "inner workings" of a MLB FO. I'm talking about the basic function of a GM or whatever you want to call him. A GM picks people under him who can abide by his ideas & he sets what his ideals should be. They do the analytics, scouting, evaluations & etc. into this format & bring them before the GM. The GM then decides what he wants to do with the information. The GM in trades (negotiations), people under him see a need & they send that info up the chain of command. The GM again decides whether to respond to that info & approach another GM to initiate a trade or to sit on it. It's not rocket science.

I was a big fan of Flavine when I joined TD. Shortly after I joined, I slightly criticized Flavine, & some here made a big deal out of it, twisted what I said. & said shut up & sit down you have no idea what you are talking about. From that time forward I started to smell something fishy on why are people running interference for Flavine & started to scrutinize Flavey by seeking out viable, nontainted articles & podcasts. 

Flavey has done a good job of finally getting the pitching pipeline flowing & tweaking some pitchers. But I disagree with his focus on analytics based on weird philosophy. I agree that analytics have a valuable place in MLB but I agree more with many true baseball people that say this modern day analytics has sucked the heart & soul out of baseball. IMO a GM with a good staff behind him would be great if he only was good at initiating necessary trades (negotiations). This area Falvey has failed 

[LambchoP]

Now that we finally have a top 5 farm system with a lot of infield depth but no salary to sign players, I'd think now would be the time to try to move some of our prospects to fill the several holes on our big league club. Mainly a first baseman, a RH outfielder and a LHRP for our bullpen.

[Jocko87]

I, for one, do not miss Luis Gil.  Neither should you. 

[jmlease1]

23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd be curious how many of those trades, especially those that turned out well for the Twins, Falvey actually initiated. It's easy to just say yes on a good deal another FO came up with.

CIN was heavily shopping Sonny Gray & they liked Chase Petty. Same with TB they were shopping Odorizzi, Palacio, he was a promising SS prospect that was hitting then. The big advantage came from tweaking them. Lugumina was protected from the Rule 5 draft because CIN wanted him. 

I wouldn't have traded for Cave in the 1st place nevertheless Gil wasn't a big prospect & Cave was the kind of hitter that the Twins liked. The Cave/ Gil deficit has just begun & looks like it'll be tremendous by the time Gil will be done at NYY.

It's as if you're looking for any reason to discount successes that occurred for the Twins in the trade market and ensure that the leader of the Twins front office does not get credit for success.

I think you seriously discount how "easy" it is to complete a trade regardless of who initiates the offer. I'll take your word that Cincy was heavily shopping Gray, but we still don't know (and will probably never know) who proposed Petty as an option. Same with Odorizzi/Palacios. For all we know, TB might have been calling about Luis Arraez or Brent Rooker and Falvey sold them on Palacios.

[Seansy]

While this is a fair analysis of how much value the Twins FO has gained as of TODAY for offseason trades, I think it is going to get significantly worse over the next few years. Unless injuries totally derail both Gil's and Petty's careers I would bet both of those guys add plenty of value for their current teams.

I also think the combination of Cruz and Sisk together could overtake Taylor's value over 1 year but that's still TBD.

When you look at the ledgers, the Twins side of value is basically already maxed out. I personally would count DeBarge on the plus side of the ledger for the Gray trade even if he wasn't actually part of the trade. Outside of that, it's only Rayne Doncon, a decent prospect, but no sure bet to make the majors.

If Petty and Gil both have decently long successful careers that 13.9 overall WAR figure could easily become a negative WAR total before too long...

That's the problem in trying to assess trades of prospects for established veterans. 1 side of the ledger is frequently still TBD and creates a mistaken impression of the trade until that side is resolved.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Flavey has done a good job of finally getting the pitching pipeline flowing & tweaking some pitchers. But I disagree with his focus on analytics based on weird philosophy. I agree that analytics have a valuable place in MLB but I agree more with many true baseball people that say this modern day analytics has sucked the heart & soul out of baseball. IMO a GM with a good staff behind him would be great if he only was good at initiating necessary trades (negotiations). This area Falvey has failed 

There is often an assumption here that the key to “getting over the hump” / contend is to trade for established players.  It certainly can help but this theory does not align in general with history, at least not for teams in the bottom half of revenue.  If we look at playoff teams and the organizations that have made the playoffs most often, trading for established players played a very small role.  In the past 20 years, the Guardians have had the most 90 win seasons (9) among teams in the bottom half of revenue.  They have acquired a total of 3 established players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more in those 20 seasons.  None of them were acquired in off-season deals.  They were all acquired at the deadline.

Brad Hand: Acquired at the 2018 deadline and was good in Cleveland for 2 ½ years.
Andrew Miller: Was acquired at the trade deadline in 2016 and helped the Guardians achieve a 94 win season.  He was also good in 2017 but he was hurt and ineffective in 2018.  Ubaldo Jiménez: Was bad in 2012 but was quite good in 2013 and Cleveland had 94 wins.  We are talking about a contribution of about 14 WAR collectively in (9) 90-win seasons.  

Now let’s look at players acquired as prospects.  The 2024 Guardians had the following players acquired as prospects.  Prospects being defined as a player that had never produced 1.5 WAR in a season.  Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith.  Previous 90+ win teams included the following players acquired as prospects. Amed Rosario / Myles Straw / Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Yan Gomes / Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco.

The 96 win 2005 Guardians had the following players that we acquired as prospects. 
Grady Sizemore (5.6 war) / Travis Hafner (5.3 war) / Coco Crisp (5.2 war) / Cliff Lee (3.8 war) / and Jake Westbrook @ 2.9 war.
 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

There is often an assumption here that the key to “getting over the hump” / contend is to trade for established players.  It certainly can help but this theory does not align in general with history, at least not for teams in the bottom half of revenue.  If we look at playoff teams and the organizations that have made the playoffs most often, trading for established players played a very small role.  In the past 20 years, the Guardians have had the most 90 win seasons (9) among teams in the bottom half of revenue.  They have acquired a total of 3 established players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more in those 20 seasons.  None of them were acquired in off-season deals.  They were all acquired at the deadline.

Brad Hand: Acquired at the 2018 deadline and was good in Cleveland for 2 ½ years.
Andrew Miller: Was acquired at the trade deadline in 2016 and helped the Guardians achieve a 94 win season.  He was also good in 2017 but he was hurt and ineffective in 2018.  Ubaldo Jiménez: Was bad in 2012 but was quite good in 2013 and Cleveland had 94 wins.  We are talking about a contribution of about 14 WAR collectively in (9) 90-win seasons.  

Now let’s look at players acquired as prospects.  The 2024 Guardians had the following players acquired as prospects.  Prospects being defined as a player that had never produced 1.5 WAR in a season.  Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith.  Previous 90+ win teams included the following players acquired as prospects. Amed Rosario / Myles Straw / Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Yan Gomes / Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco.

The 96 win 2005 Guardians had the following players that we acquired as prospects. 
Grady Sizemore (5.6 war) / Travis Hafner (5.3 war) / Coco Crisp (5.2 war) / Cliff Lee (3.8 war) / and Jake Westbrook @ 2.9 war.
 

There is without a doubt for a GM priority is to put together a great group below him that can do great unbiased & individual player evaluations & development. To keep everything internal, especially for smaller markets is a very good goal. I'm also all in for all viable in-house young players to get a chance to prove themselves. Any team is bound to have weak points that needs to be strengthen especially if there is a competitive window.  IMO & pertaining to this thread the best way to do that is via trade using the surplus expendable young players we have opposed to expensive FA. IMO it makes much more sense to develop a top defensive catcher opposed to signing one in FA.

[DocBauer]

As on OVERALL I think the FO has done a pretty good job in most of their trades. That doesn't mean the Orioles trade for Lopez and the Reds trade for Mahle didn't turn out to be clunkers. The Margot trade and the Mariners trade this past offseason are basically nothing about nothing at this point, unless Doncon or Gonzalez turn in to something, or become traded in another deal. But again, if Topa has a good season, then the Twins do get SOMETHING from the Mariners trade in the immediate.

I maintain it's difficult, if no ingenious, to look at a young prospect traded for immediate help, who might turn out to be years later, and say the trade was poor in any way. For example, if Petty has a good career with the Reds, it doesn't erase 2 very good seasons of Gray.

The Gray trade was good. So was the Odorizzi move. Ditto Cruz for Ryan. Lopez for Arraez was good. I still like the Maeda acquisition, even though injury spoiled a full season of potential value. And there have been others such as Taylor, smaller, maybe only for a year's worth of help, but solid trades.

I maintain an approach of "did we get better and accomplish what we set out to do". Generally speaking, I think the FO has has the scale tipped in their favor, despite some poor decisions.

Payroll won't allow much for trades this offseason, barring opening up some financial room somewhere. I do think it's possible youth may be traded for youth in the form of a young catcher, possibly a young 1B. That makes sense on paper in regard to the roster and the payroll. Were they able to acquire a young catcher in such a move, it makes moving Vazquez easier. Followed possibly/probably moving Paddack. Then they'd have some $ to play with and maybe grab a 1B and LHRP to "finish" the roster.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Payroll won't allow much for trades this offseason, barring opening up some financial room somewhere. I do think it's possible youth may be traded for youth in the form of a young catcher, possibly a young 1B. That makes sense on paper in regard to the roster and the payroll. Were they able to acquire a young catcher in such a move, it makes moving Vazquez easier. Followed possibly/probably moving Paddack. Then they'd have some $ to play with and maybe grab a 1B and LHRP to "finish" the roster.

The Twins can make a number of trades. Money is not an issue unless we are talking about big contracts. There could be numerous moves to improve the roster and reduce the payroll simultaneously. The real question is - will the Twins attempt to make any changes or real improvements to the team? Falvey has specifically stated that the Twins may need to get "creative'. Well then, let's get creative Derek.