Have the Twins Been Successful Getting Creative in Trades?

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins' front office doesn't have much payroll space to work with. If they want to add, they have to get creative. Let's review every big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trade Derek Falvey has ever made.

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images (Rooker), Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

As we look ahead to another “exciting Twins offseason,” it’s become increasingly apparent that the Twins’ brass will need to get creative amid payroll constraints. Just look at the Offseason Blueprints being generated all over Twins Daily as we speak. Derek Falvey and Co. have pulled off their fair share of creative trades, seeking to add to the current big league team even if it takes a big leaguer or two in return.

Funnily enough, under Falvey's watchful eye, the Twins have rarely sold over the offseason at all, seemingly preferring to swap their MLB talent for help today rather than prospects for tomorrow. Gio Urshela, by my count, was the only major leaguer to be traded for a prospect since 2017. The team has been trying to win, not stock up assets, leaning into its creativity to make things happen.

But, of course, that creativity needs to work. No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It’s pretty straightforward when picking winners and losers when a team sends away MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors in a position of need. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade–MLB for MLB (occasionally prospects get added to the deals, but they have to have an MLB contract going each way)–over the offseason. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 19th, 2024. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract.

Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
There’s a lot to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and be rid of Donaldson, who some reports suggest had worn out his welcome in Minnesota. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome and was waived before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa played two decent years in pinstripes. Rortvedt played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota and filled the roles they were brought in for, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson’s, that excess money helped bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023.

1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (379.1 IP, 110 ERA+, 5.8 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez (765 PA, 122 OPS+, 5.0 bWAR), +0.8 bWAR for Minnesota.
López was tagged as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it’s questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He was traded to San Diego mid-season in 2024 and just won his third consecutive batting title.

2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (7 PA, -54 OPS+, -0.1 bWAR) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (181 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), -0.1 bWAR for Minnesota.
Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and reestablished himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA’s bullpen when healthy. Camargo has gotten a cup of coffee in MLB, and Raley was traded to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA.

3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez* (31.0 IP, 143 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver dealt with injuries in Texas but still hit well enough for mainly DH role. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again. Henriquez,24, saw mild success out of the pen for the Twins in 2024 and could rack up frequent rider miles on the Green Line between St. Paul and Minnesota for the next few years.

4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (115.2 IP, 86 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina* (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +2.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever in Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for San Diego but has blossomed into an All-Star in Oakland. Both were traded from San Diego at the 2022 deadline. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and threw 88 innings at the back of the Twins rotation in 2024. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina was released after three years of Rookie ball, and the Twins retained most of Rogers’ salary.

1/19/24: Minnesota acquires Anthony DeSclafani (did not play for Minnesota), Justin Topa* (2.1 IP, 999 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Gabriel Gonzalez* (has not reached Minnesota), Darren Bowen* (has not reached Minnesota) from Seattle for Jorge Polanco (469 PA, 93 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR), -1.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
This one’s a doozie. The Twins needed to free up payroll space and traded one of their longest-tenured players in Polanco. Seattle sent back starter Anthony DeSclafani–who missed the entire year with injury–and reliever Justin Topa–who missed all but a week of the season with injury. They also received prospects in the form of outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez (who received one rouge listing on a top-100 prospect list) and pitcher Darren Bowen. For his part, Polanco struggled as well. No real winners in this trade unless Gonzalez turns into something. At least the excess space salary got turned into Carlos Santana. 

2/11/24: Minnesota acquires Steven Okert (35.1 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Miami for Nick Gordon (275 PA, 68 OPS+, -1.7 bWAR), +1.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
Nick Gordon didn’t have a place on the 2024 Twins after a 2023 lost to injury, and he was out of options. He was flipped to Miami for Okert in the hopes the lefty could cover some middle innings. Okert’s highs were “fine,” and his lows were “bad.” Gordon was all “bad.” The Twins won the WAR, but both teams lost.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota but would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old but just lost an entire season to injury.

2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade, Jr.* (1552 PA, 115 OPS+, 6.0 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup for several years. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended.

In total, Minnesota has lost 2.7 WAR in these trades–under this methodology for counting WAR at least. They certainly haven’t hit a home run on the whole, but there’s only been one true, unmitigated blunder–the Wade trade. Even the Rooker trade returned decent pitching, and Rooker bounced around before becoming the guy he is today.

What do you think? How much confidence do you have in the Twins pulling off some creative big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer trades this offseason?

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[tony&rodney]

You answered your own question with the post.

Seattle and San Diego are in different divisions and have markets that might be seen as dissimilar to the Twin Cities. Both of these teams proceed with confidence in  transactions even if some of their deals are wonky or turn out poorly.

The Twins are uber hesitant. We repeatedly, in nearly every article, read that the financial constraints are difficult for the Minnesota Twins. Yet, as of today, the Twins have the most money of any team in their immediate competitive area, the AL Central and Milwaukee. Perhaps it is past time that everyone realize that it isn't money that holds back the Twins from improving the roster. I doubt whether Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, or Chicago South are feeling sorry for the financial challenges their coldest division faces.

[bean5302]

I don't know as I agree with the methodology here. Pretty convenient to write off the 7 WAR Rooker generated while he's still under team control and pretend Paddack and Pagan were decently valuable, lol. The Rooker trade was a disaster on par with the Bartlett + Garza trade for Delmon Young.

[nicksaviking]

This list only goes back two years, and overall the off season trades have been pretty good, while the in season trades have mostly been disasters.

So, I guess if they're going to make moves, now is the time.

But still, without the commitment from ownership, I'm still of the mind that they should be in a holding pattern. Any moves now seem more likely to be aimed at lowering costs to make the team more attractive to new owners or a token gesture to fans that doesn't actually accomplish anything on the field.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Greggory for all the work you put into this. I myself prefer Fangraph WAR, Off the bat I'd like to say that IMO most of MN's grown players would have done better at home (ex. MN knew how to use Rogers while SD had no idea). On the other hand, Sanchez & Urshela were thrilled to get out of NYY. The '22 MN/ NYY/ TX trade was the result of the bad FA signing of Donaldson. If the FA Donaldson signing didn't happen this terrible transaction which decimated our catching would not have occurred. 

IMO WAR isn't a good indicator of results, I prefer wins & losses (that's what counts doesn't it?) The '22 transactions of Donaldson, Garver, and Rortvedt to TX & NYY  plus Rogers & Rooker to SD = Last place in AL Central.   '24 Polanco to SEA, LAD didn't want Margot & dumped him on us = 4th place in AL Central.    '23  MIA approached MN (I have my doubts that Falvey has initiated any major trades). This was a great trade MN won the AL Central, won a postseason game & series.    '20 LAD wanted to dump disgruntled Maeda. We had leverage & should have replaced (RP) Graterol for our top SP prospect, Balazovik. It was still a good trade, won the AL Central.

Falvey's idea of "creativity" is IMO an oxymoron. For something to be creative, there needs to be some initiative, not passively sit back and wait for offers. With a Fire Sale sign outside his office, I doubt he'll get any beneficial offers same as last year. For us to build off '23 during this budget crunch, we need to keep the core together, not trade them off, trade off fat, invest in our young promising players, be initiative & fill our real needs via trade & stop spending frivolously in the FA.

To answer your question. I don't want Falvey's idea of creativity. I want him to be truly creative & initiate a 3 way trade for example to fill an essential need & stay out of FA.

[Greggory Masterson]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This list only goes back two years, and overall the off season trades have been pretty good, while the in season trades have mostly been disasters.

So, I guess if they're going to make moves, now is the time.

But still, without the commitment from ownership, I'm still of the mind that they should be in a holding pattern. Any moves now seem more likely to be aimed at lowering costs to make the team more attractive to new owners or a token gesture to fans that doesn't actually accomplish anything on the field.

If there’s an an offseason MLB-for-MLB trade I missed, let me know! I separate this series into 4 parts (offseason/deadline, buy/sell) because of how big the list has gotten. Deadline buys is definitely the worst showing

[Greggory Masterson]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know as I agree with the methodology here. Pretty convenient to write off the 7 WAR Rooker generated while he's still under team control and pretend Paddack and Pagan were decently valuable, lol. The Rooker trade was a disaster on par with the Bartlett + Garza trade for Delmon Young.

The reason I include all the other information is because I recognize WAR only gives part of the story. However, I choose not to include next stops and returns in subsequent trades because the value balance gets untenable to summarize (e.g., how do you balance Hajjar being traded vs Rooker being cut?). If you have a suggestion, I’m all ears.

as for the Delmon Young comparison, I think that’s a bit of overkill. What did San Diego get from the deal?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know as I agree with the methodology here. Pretty convenient to write off the 7 WAR Rooker generated while he's still under team control and pretend Paddack and Pagan were decently valuable, lol. The Rooker trade was a disaster on par with the Bartlett + Garza trade for Delmon Young.

The Rooker trade bashing is ignorance.  As has been commented time and time again he was not going to get a look in Minnesota.  Multiple teams did not want him before he saw success.  This dog is beyond dead, stop beating it.

[nicksaviking]

47 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

If there’s an an offseason MLB-for-MLB trade I missed, let me know! I separate this series into 4 parts (offseason/deadline, buy/sell) because of how big the list has gotten. Deadline buys is definitely the worst showing

I misread your prologue, I saw 2022 and thought that was the first trade in chronological order.

I was just saying that they also found creative trades prior to then, particularly when it came to starting pitching. Sonny Gray and Jake Odorizzi were also great trades though they weren't big leaguer for big leaguer. Which wouldn't be a requirement for me.

[tony&rodney]

51 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But still, without the commitment from ownership,

In consideration of the roster budgets among the AL Central foes and our neighbor Milwaukee, it is beyond time to stop using money or ownership as a crutch for how the roster is constructed. The Pohlad budgets under Paul Molitor were quite different and much more a factor than anything in the Falvey/Baldelli era. 

[Greggory Masterson]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I misread your prologue, I saw 2022 and thought that was the first trade in chronological order.

I was just saying that they also found creative trades prior to then, particularly when it came to starting pitching. Sonny Gray and Jake Odorizzi were also great trades though they weren't big leaguer for big leaguer. Which wouldn't be a requirement for me.

Boy do I have some good news for you tomorrow

[tony&rodney]

30 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Rooker trade bashing is ignorance.  As has been commented time and time again he was not going to get a look in Minnesota.  Multiple teams did not want him before he saw success.  This dog is beyond dead, stop beating it.

While I agree with this statement, I still am amazed that Rooker was essentially released. Rooker is the absolute prototype of a Falvey player. He swings hard and bashes the ball around the park. While I'm not a Rooker style guy, I do see the value in a good DH and was flabbergasted that an exact replica of a Falvey dream pick was so easily let go.

[bean5302]

50 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

The reason I include all the other information is because I recognize WAR only gives part of the story. However, I choose not to include next stops and returns in subsequent trades because the value balance gets untenable to summarize (e.g., how do you balance Hajjar being traded vs Rooker being cut?). If you have a suggestion, I’m all ears.

as for the Delmon Young comparison, I think that’s a bit of overkill. What did San Diego get from the deal?

Yeah, I get it. It gets super complex to really evaluate historical trades. WAR is a component, as is compensation rates, and then what about net present value? Is trading a 2.0 WAR asset and seeing no value for 5 years, when the player you acquire produces 2.0 WAR an equal exchange? How do you quantify the value of time where you get nothing? Is it fair to use a static scale on that or to apply a curved scale based on team needs or projections? What about trades that lead to trades which lead to further trades? Liriano led to Escobar which led to Alcala like a huge tree of transactions. You can literally spend hours and hours trying to figure out a formula, and no matter which formula you choose, it will be flawed.

I think the baseline should probably look at team controlled years to current. Looking at production after team control ended is irrelevant (like whatever Ryan Pressly did after 2019 is irrelevant) , but regardless of where the player went, that was production the Twins forfeited. The Twins would still have control over Brent Rooker for 3 years.

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

In consideration of the roster budgets among the AL Central foes and our neighbor Milwaukee, it is beyond time to stop using money or ownership as a crutch for how the roster is constructed. The Pohlad budgets under Paul Molitor were quite different and much more a factor than anything in the Falvey/Baldelli era. 

I didn’t say anything about the budget. They are trying to sell the team; that’s literally de-committing from the franchise. As so, I struggle to see any moves going forward as being motivated in the interests of long-term success on the field.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yet, as of today, the Twins have the most money of any team in their immediate competitive area, the AL Central and Milwaukee. Perhaps it is past time that everyone realize that it isn't money that holds back the Twins from improving the roster. I doubt whether Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, or Chicago South are feeling sorry for the financial challenges their coldest division faces.

I doubt the Twins are going to hold that title much longer. Detroit has historically spent more on their roster and now their young core is establishing themselves. I expect them to make some impact signings this offseason - a #2/3 type starting pitcher and perhaps an AJ Hinch/Alex Bregman reunion…

The Twins total budget isn’t the problem, it’s how the budget is allocated. A $37 million salary does not work in a $130 million payroll. Especially when he’s missing 40+ games every season. Same with Buxton’s $15 million salary missing 60+ games every season. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

While I agree with this statement, I still am amazed that Rooker was essentially released. Rooker is the absolute prototype of a Falvey player. He swings hard and bashes the ball around the park. While I'm not a Rooker style guy, I do see the value in a good DH and was flabbergasted that an exact replica of a Falvey dream pick was so easily let go.

He was an absokute liability as a fielder, and Cruz was here when he came up, what were they supposed to do with him?

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I doubt the Twins are going to hold that title much longer. Detroit has historically spent more on their roster and now their young core is establishing themselves. I expect them to make some impact signings this offseason - a #2/3 type starting pitcher and perhaps an AJ Hinch/Alex Bregman reunion…

The Twins total budget isn’t the problem, it’s how the budget is allocated. A $37 million salary does not work in a $130 million payroll. Especially when he’s missing 40+ games every season. Same with Buxton’s $15 million salary missing 60+ games every season. 

I agree with you but Detroit has at least as big a problem.  Correra is $10M more per year but Baez is terrible and that money is returning nothing.  

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, RpR said:

He was an absokute liability as a fielder, and Cruz was here when he came up, what were they supposed to do with him?

Cruz was traded in 2021, Rooker was just arriving, still on team. Both are strictly DH's. I was never a fan of a Rooker type but as a DH only he has shown his worth. My surprise was Falvey trading him. If you draft a DH, let him play as a DH.

[Russ]

Scouting and player development need immediate improvement.  Players received in trades are mediocre or hurt.  Prospects received in trades have been disappointing.   Twins usually trade starting players for reserves and prospects that go nowhere.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I doubt the Twins are going to hold that title much longer. Detroit has historically spent more on their roster and now their young core is establishing themselves. I expect them to make some impact signings this offseason - a #2/3 type starting pitcher and perhaps an AJ Hinch/Alex Bregman reunion…

The Twins total budget isn’t the problem, it’s how the budget is allocated. A $37 million salary does not work in a $130 million payroll. Especially when he’s missing 40+ games every season. Same with Buxton’s $15 million salary missing 60+ games every season. 

I thought I had responded to this earlier but maybe I did not.

I agree that both Detroit and Chicago Southside will have higher payrolls in time, but it may be a few more years. Detroit is about $60M behind MN and has Javy as a gold chain.

I want to see the Twins keep all of Correa, Buxton, and Lopez, but if Correa needs to be traded, there will be a team or two willing to have him. 

The larger issue is a lack of deals seeking to improve the team, seemingly due to a hesitant outlook. 

[DocBauer]

While appreciate all of the hard work that went in to this...and I understand the methodology that went in to it...I tend to agree with @bean5302 that WAR by itself doesn't provide a conclusion for me on these. I look more at what, if anything, it accomplished for the Twins.

Prime example: Graterol has helped the Dodgers, not as much initially but more recently, and Maeda was either really good or really bad when with the Twins due to injury. But he provided one wonderful, Cy Young votes season. And he was actually quite good in 2023 after some early struggles to help the Twins reach the playoffs.

The Pagan/Rogers trade remains a weird, crazy, hard to quantify deal. Rogers was great initially, then fell apart. Pagan was horrendous his first year, but was actually very solid and got a few big outs his second season in 2023 to also help the Twins win the ALC and reach the playoffs. 

And while I absolutely loved having Arraez as a Twin, I would make the move of him for Pablo twice tomorrow.

The whole Polanco to Seattle trade turned out to be pretty much a joke for both sides. Nobody won anything. But there's still the possibility of Gonzalez turning out to be a solid ML player, or, part of a future trade. But if Topa's knee is OK for 2025 and he can throw 60-ish innings of solid relief this season and approximate the pitcher he was for Seattle in 2023, then the Twins "win" this miserable trade a year late with said solid performance. 

While it involves a lot of twists and turns, ultimately, the Donaldson trade did allow the Twins to sign Correa. That also had a hand in re-signing him, though i wouldn't have minded being able to keep Urshela for another season.

IIRC, Wade didn't have a particularly good 2019 season at AAA. In SSS he was OK with the Twins in 2019-20 but didn't set the world on fire. Again, SSS to be considered. Cave seemed more "established" and was considered a better option in CF. At the time, keeping Cave seemed to make more sense. I would have rather kept both, and in hindsight Wade would have been the better choice for sure. But hindsight is always 20/20.

A lot of these moves never moved the needle much, but a few did. That's why I say just WAR by itself doesn't paint an accurate picture. Not saying the FO made really great moves here at all. Or all the time. I just think the context of value/return is vastly different than that one measurement. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The larger issue is a lack of deals seeking to improve the team, seemingly due to a hesitant outlook. 

Thad Levine had the reputation of being more aggressive, vs. Falvey who has been more conservative FWIW. I expect some trades to happen later in January once Falvey/Zoll let the offseason develop. If Baltimore strikes out re-signing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, I can see them being active in the trade market. 

[Doctor Wu]

Another big stinker was the Twins getting the  "other" Lopez from the Orioles and giving up Cano and Povich. Double ouch!!

[LambchoP]

We all know the Twins have lost some trades, but which team hasn't? That shouldn't stop us from make NG trades this year to make the team better. Most likely, it's the only way we'll be able to improve, seeing as our budget is already made. With the whole sale of the team, I doubt we see much action or change at all in the roster. Definitely no big free agents or long term deals. Maybe we sign some typical scrap heap relievers but that'll probably be it. Its going to be up to our young guys and core guys to play well. No big reinforcements coming, let's face it.

[rv78]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Cruz was traded in 2021, Rooker was just arriving, still on team. Both are strictly DH's. I was never a fan of a Rooker type but as a DH only he has shown his worth. My surprise was Falvey trading him. If you draft a DH, let him play as a DH.

Unfortunately that is the type of player that most of the young Twins are. Is Julien a good 2nd baseman? No. Is Miranda a good 3rd baseman? No. Kirilloff wasn't good at 1st or OF. Lewis isn't good enough to play SS and hasn't impressed at 3rd. He won't play 2nd. Looks like another guy at DH. How about Martin? Not good enough to play 2nd. Doesn't have the range or arm to play outfield. Larnach and Wallner are not great outfielders. Seeing a pattern here? Maybe part of the problem is trying to make them something they are not. That's another Falvine and Rocco mistake. 

[Eris]

In addition to evaluation methodology that was included in this article, which showed a small overall WAR impact, I would add a subjective win, lose or draw assessment to the trade, for example did the trade accomplish the immediate goal. I would have also included all the trades, including for minor leaguers. It also possible for both teams to win or lose a trade. 

 Examples:  Margot trade was a loss as the immediate objective was to acquire a capable 4th outfielder  (he had -0.2 fWAR in his only season with the Twins)

Polanco trade was a loss (for both teams) as the objective was to acquire a very good reliever (Topa) and a fifth starter  

Sonny Gray trade was a win even if Petty has a HoF career as the objective was to acquire a frontline starter  

 

 

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Unfortunately that is the type of player that most of the young Twins are. Is Julien a good 2nd baseman? No. Is Miranda a good 3rd baseman? No. Kirilloff wasn't good at 1st or OF. Lewis isn't good enough to play SS and hasn't impressed at 3rd. He won't play 2nd. Looks like another guy at DH. How about Martin? Not good enough to play 2nd. Doesn't have the range or arm to play outfield. Larnach and Wallner are not great outfielders. Seeing a pattern here? Maybe part of the problem is trying to make them something they are not. That's another Falvine and Rocco mistake. 

All of these guys are good baseball players and hitters, however, none of them have managed to become average defensively. Who knows? Maybe they will and i guess that is the hope. It is how Falvey rolls. It just doesn't seem like much of a plan to me. To be fair, I am biased as a former pitcher. I liked the balls in play that were expected to be turned into outs to actually become outs. I'm wishing for the best outcome still.

[Eris]

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

All of these guys are good baseball players and hitters, however, none of them have managed to become average defensively. Who knows? P

This is the current trend in baseball.  It seems as if the bomba days of 2017-2019 have had a long term influence on player selection.  Per fangraphs, in 2024, only 6 teams had a positive defensive metric (which includes a positional adjustment).  In 2004, 21 teams had a positive defensive metric.  
 

(hmm, can’t paste the fangraphs links )  

 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Eris said:

This is the current trend in baseball.

Yes, I understand this. However, is it a sound decision? Why emulate poor baseball? Cleveland and Milwaukee both play defense. The Dodgers just added a World Series banner to their collection and a big reason was their ability to play defense. 

I'm not opposed a couple of DH's in the lineup. Seems like quite a gamble though to have below average defenders as a strategy in six of eight positions with only two at average. That puts quite a bit of pressure on the pitchers and offense. I think we saw the inevitable occur in August and September. 

Maybe we can all just hope that everyone suddenly improves and I too hope they do. I'm also not sure that hope is a plan.

[jmlease1]

On 11/23/2024 at 1:05 PM, tony&rodney said:

While I agree with this statement, I still am amazed that Rooker was essentially released. Rooker is the absolute prototype of a Falvey player. He swings hard and bashes the ball around the park. While I'm not a Rooker style guy, I do see the value in a good DH and was flabbergasted that an exact replica of a Falvey dream pick was so easily let go.

He looked like a AAAA player: good enough to wreck AAA pitchers, but not good enough to hit in MLB. He was chasing sliders and would get himself out, and added no value defensively. He repeated things in SD and KC: huge stats in AAA and couldn't even really get a look in MLB other than a cup of coffee, and both teams let him go. I mean, SD traded him for a terrible backup catcher and KC (who was going nowhere at the time) cut him.

Good for him for getting things together in Oakland. Now, is it maybe easier to play for a team that has no expectations? Maybe. But he's also figured some things out in the last 2 years.

But I'd push back on the idea that Rooker is a "Falvey Dream Pick". There seems to be some idea that the Twins under Falvey/Levine established some kind of hitter profile that they stick to like glue or something, and that it's significantly different from the rest of the league. Are there a lot of teams out there that don't want their hitters swinging hard?