High Floor: The Twins Have the AL’s Fourth Best Roster as the Offseason Begins

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota enters the offseason with no clear holes, but they hardly have a perfect roster. Does the team that collapsed down the stretch have one of the AL’s best rosters at the offseason’s onset?

 

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

Every front office must evaluate its roster and organizational depth as the season begins. The Dodgers and Yankees, are coming off the high of a World Series run while also boasting strong farm systems. Other teams, like the White Sox and Rockies, are trying to recover after disastrous campaigns. Every roster is at a different place, and it’s important to note where each team stands entering baseball’s hot stove. 

Over the weekend, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello used FanGraphs’s 2025 roster projections to rank all 30 MLB rosters as they stand entering the offseason. There are many moving parts when it comes to offseason roster construction, with unsigned free agents, potential trades, and age impacting players' future performance. No team’s roster is finalized in early November, but a team can have a high floor to build off of as the offseason begins.

Examining the Rankings
There are few surprises at the top of the rankings. The Dodgers sit at number one with 48.6 projected WAR, despite free agents like Jack Flaherty, Teoscar Hernández, and Walker Buehler not counting toward their total. Los Angeles gets a bump because Shohei Ohtani is expected to pitch again, and they continue to have some of the league’s best players in multiple positions. Atlanta trails the Dodgers by a negligible 0.1 WAR, as they try to recover from a season where a lot went wrong. Long-term deals for all their key pieces have ensured that they maintain one of the highest floors in the league. 

The Houston Astros rank as the top AL team (45.9 WAR), even with the possible losses of Alex Bregman, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justin Verlander. Houston has been near the top of the AL over the last decade, but they have found a way to keep their winning window open. Baltimore ranks 0.1 WAR behind Houston, although they're currently without Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, and Danny Coulombe. They have one of baseball’s best young cores and should be near the top of the AL East again next year. 

The Yankees have some big-name free agents coming off their roster, with Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, and Clay Holmes testing the open market. Even without these players, New York is projected to have a 45 WAR before adding any players. Soto will sign with a big-market team, and the Yankees are one of the favorites to sign the young slugger. 

Why Do the Twins Rank Highly?
The Twins finished in fourth place in the AL Central and out of the playoffs, but they have the AL’s fourth-best projected roster heading into the offseason. Minnesota is also losing very little value in free agency (Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, and Kyle Farmer), and the Twins have younger players who can step into the roles vacated by those players. As the article said, “Unlike other teams with a truly massive hole to fill at the moment, the Twins could field a reasonable 2025 lineup at every position and most of a pitching staff right now.”

Minnesota’s big three, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis, have shown the ability to play at an All-Star level when healthy. At the top of the rotation, the Twins have Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan, a trio good enough to inspire envy in many other teams across baseball. The Twins clearly have needs entering the winter, but they are starting from a strong point. 

What Are the Twins’ Needs?
Looking at the Twins’ roster, there are plenty of places the team could add to increase their projected WAR total for 2025. Minnesota continues to be left-handed heavy at multiple positions, so adding a right-handed bat to the corner outfield could help for platooning with Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner. There is also a hole at first base, with Santana expected to leave in free agency. José Miranda and Edouard Julien are internal options, but the team likely doesn’t trust them in a full-time role. The Twins could also use more depth in the bullpen, but this front office has failed to invest in relievers and has done poorly in identifying low-cost relief options. 

Many fans aren’t going to believe the Twins have one of baseball’s best rosters after their collapse last season. However, there are reasons the team is ranked so high. There are no glaring holes in the lineup and there's depth in the starting rotation. That doesn’t mean the front office should be quiet this winter, and Derek Falvey has shown a propensity to take some big swings. Minnesota is expected to shake up this roster in multiple ways before Opening Day, and it remains to be seen whether that will be for good or bad.

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Do the Twins have the AL’s fourth-best roster entering the offseason? Where do they need to add? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[bean5302]

As the article says, mostly because free agency hasn't started seeing signings and the Twins don't have a lot of outgoing free agents of projected value. I still think there are some holes and I spent quite a few hours trying to find good options and matches to improve the team.
 

 

[rv78]

LOL!

And the AL's 15th best Owner/FrontOffice/Manager/CoachingStaff.

[jmlease1]

Seems reasonable for me, especially before free agency opens. You correctly note that the Twins are not losing much value in free agency. (Sorry Max Kepler fans) The top of the rotation sure looks good to me with Lopez, Ober, and Ryan and the lineup has strength in players like Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Jeffers to go along with prospect/young players like Miranda, Lee, Julien, etc. The front office has been good about getting better depth and raising that floor by working hard to give as few ABs or IP to bad players. If we don't deal any of the big contracts, the floor should be high.

It's part of why the self-imposed payroll restrictions to ensure that ownership makes an operating profit in addition to their substantial increases in franchise value are so goddamn frustrating. This team isn't far off, and if we'd had that additional $20-30M in payroll last season there's a real chance we could have prevented the collapse down the stretch (think about where we would have been with a real impact RH OF bat instead of Margot and a LH reliever!) or positioned ourselves where we could have ridden it out.

I still like where this team stands. No one in our rotation is going to be even 30. We have a legion of young starters coming in behind; we've rarely had their level of quality and upside and never had their numbers. We have some strong relievers to anchor the back of the bullpen. We have a lineup that should be able to hit if it can stay even a little bit healthy, and we have some prospects rising in the minors that will be able to add, fill-in, and ultimately replace guys.

The biggest drag on this team is ownership, payroll, and health. 

[chpettit19]

Seems about right, to me, at this point. In basically the same position as they were at this point last year. Going into the offseason as one of the 3-6 best teams in the AL (by virtue of not having much roster turnover). The difference is that it was just over a year ago that Falvey threw cold water on the fan's excitement after a bit of a playoff run while this offseason had no excitement to douse because of the collapse. But my expectations are the same. Other teams will improve while the Twins fight to maintain. Which means by the end of the offseason I expect them to be more in the 6-10 best range instead.

If we're just going off of today, right now, this moment, I'd pick the central to be a fight between the Twins and the Guardians with the Tigers and Royals being a half step behind. Tigers and Royals in the 79-83 win range and Twins and Guardians in the 84-88 win range. Basically what I expected coming into this year. The question is going to be what each of those squads is able to do over the offseason to improve their teams. I have my doubts that the Twins can do a whole lot with no money. But we'll see what Falvey can come up with.

[LambchoP]

We do have holes on this roster though. I believe we need a starting first baseman. A starting pitcher who can slot in above Festa, allowing him to start in AAA and be the first line of defense for injury in the rotation. We need a good lefty reliever. A RH OF would be nice, although I think we could get by with some combination of Keirsey, Castro, Martin or Mccusker. It will be very disappointing if the Twins stand pat and basically bow out of the off-season just like they did at the trade deadline. Falvey needs to find a way to improve this team, as the AL Central is no longer a weak division.

[Bodie]

Give me the Cleveland team over this "roster" every day of the week, and twice on Sunday!

 

Never thought that would need to be said on a Twins fan site, but here we are...

[Brandon]

The big keys for this team is health and development.  
We need Julien, Lee, Walner, and Miranda to hit the ground running.  
 

we need continued health for the rotation and Buxton and Lewis, Lee and Correa 

the above health and development would fix most of the holes on the team.  We even have Keaschall on the way and ERod at some point next season.  

Outside of a decision on Santana and a backup CF and maybe a reliever I hope the Twins stand pat this offseason unless they decide to trade IF prospects for an established 3B I don’t see the need to do anything.  

[tony&rodney]

In a vacuum the roster looks fine. Meanwhile the pitchers are spending their time praying for gloves that scoop up ground balls and catch fly balls at an acceptable MLB level. 

[Doctor Gast]

WAR doesn't tell the whole story but it's the best thing we have to evaluate players. We had a very good core last offseason that thrilled us in the postseason, the main focus should have been to keep the talent & chemistry intact. The only meaningful loss was Sonny Gray. That means entering into the trade market with a boatload of prospects to land a top-end SP to fill that hole. We would enter into '24 with a great rotation with expected young SPs Ryan & Ober to take a step forward. Our biggest hole was SP, we needed at least a mid-rotation inning eater, to help take the burden off SP wannabe- Varland, recent TJ- Paddack, a bunch of rookies & the BP. That didn't happen.

For a postseason-inspired team, you need to fill the real holes, add to the core not subtract, give deserving in-house players a chance to prove themselves. FO spent all of their allotted money on frivolous salaries that did nothing to help the club. That plus not filling our real hole at SP & disturbing the chemistry, I had very little expectation with the Twins entering into '24, even though we had a wonderful core.

Again for a postseason-inspired team, you need to get better & better. Although we still have a good core & better w/o Margot, we are worse than last year, Because we didn't allow well-deserving in-house players to develop into their potential (last year was lost) & still have a hole left by Gray.                         (to be continued)

 

 

 

 

[Reptevia]

“Minnesota enters the offseason with no clear holes…”

Except 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and arguably Catcher. It could be argued that having a known starter at SS and CF that are both most like half time players brings those positions into question too. I understand the rose colored glasses are required on this forum, but blinders???

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

Give me the Cleveland team over this "roster" every day of the week, and twice on Sunday!

 

Never thought that would need to be said on a Twins fan site, but here we are...

Roster-wise I'd take ours over theirs. But how they are developed & managed is a different story. CLE has better player development & evaluations. They successfully teach their players how to play baseball not HR derby. Better evaluations, they know the value of the players they pick up(how many players do they pick up are hurt or are terrible?), they give opportunities to their own young players to get better & grow with the team.  They can also better evaluate where their problem areas are & deal with it. If something is wrong they can quickly see & fix it, instead of being blind & doubling down.

[HerbieFan]

Two things.  1) This might be the case right up until Joey's mandated cost cutting means they have to trade Correa.  2) It explains why they brought in new hitting coaches to provide a better offensive approach b/c the production sure didn't match up with this kind of ranking

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Two things.  1) This might be the case right up until Joey's mandated cost cutting means they have to trade Correa.  2) It explains why they brought in new hitting coaches to provide a better offensive approach b/c the production sure didn't match up with this kind of ranking

I mean the Twins were 4th in the AL in runs scored. So the offensive production quite literally did match up to this ranking. Recency bias is really making people forget how good this team was for the majority of the season. Does that mean they don't have work to do? Absolutely not. But people acting like this team was horrible all year is crazy. There is talent on this team. And the production was there. Even with the horrible collapse they still finished 4th in the AL in runs scored.

[mikelink45]

Wow - sign up for the playoffs now.  What a joke - we are fourth best if everyone stays healthy, if no one regresses, if the bullpen can stand up to overuse and if the gloves suddenly turn gold.  So many articles will be written as fillers.  Let us see how Cleveland, Detroit, KC and Tampa Bay perform. 

Would any of these teams trade rosters?

1. Yankees
2. Dodgers
3. Astros
4. Orioles
5. Mets
6. Braves
7. Arizona
8. Phillies

Add in the four who are better than expected above and that puts us in the 9 - 12 range of teams.  I am much more comfortable with that until we see the trades, Free agents, Rule 5 and all the other moves to be made.

[Doctor Gast]

Even though we have a worse core than we had last season, we still have a very good core. A core like last season has only one main hole . This season they have to do a lot better job of recognizing where the priorities are. Last season they felt that the priority was back of the BP so they loaded up the back of the BP (none of them worked out), they figured that they had a hole at subbing Buxton & couldn't trust Keirsey so they picked up Margot a player LAD wanted to unload. Instead of making us stronger they made us weaker. They figured that Julien could take Polanco place at 2B & dumped Polanco , again made us weaker & disturbed the chemistry. They deemed 1B defense as totally essential to our success & neglected the offensive superiority of Miranda & Kiriloff & their need to be protected at 1B, The WAR at 1B didn't improve from '23 to '24 with addition of Santana nor has it dropped from '24 to '25 in projections w/o Santana. IMO if Miranda & Kiriloff were given 1B our WAR would have been much in '24 & '25 projections. Deadline need was a LHRP & they never came through,

Twins misinterpreting our needs & focusing on backend BP, outside help at CF subbing & 1B & missing our real need for a viable SP & later LHRP. Took us from a postseason contender to a postseason pretender. The focus should be this offseason as was last off season & that is to preserve the talent & chemistry of the core, viable inning eating SP (at least), prioritize  catching defense over 1B defense, maybe a LHRP, give well deserving young players an opportunity to prove them self. We have a budget crunch, forget about FA as our solution or targeting big bucks players in trades, quitting spending on frivolous players. cut fat not muscle. FO has to learn how to inniatate & close on vital trades.

To close I'll reinnerate  as I said last year, We have a great core & a whole lot of young players & prospects that could be & should be traded. Forget about breaking up the core to get more prospects we don't need. The core has suffered last year but it still has a lot of potential & I have faith in them. 

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Wow - sign up for the playoffs now.  What a joke - we are fourth best if everyone stays healthy, if no one regresses, if the bullpen can stand up to overuse and if the gloves suddenly turn gold.  So many articles will be written as fillers.  Let us see how Cleveland, Detroit, KC and Tampa Bay perform. 

Would any of these teams trade rosters?

1. Yankees
2. Dodgers
3. Astros
4. Orioles
5. Mets
6. Braves
7. Arizona
8. Phillies

Add in the four who are better than expected above and that puts us in the 9 - 12 range of teams.  I am much more comfortable with that until we see the trades, Free agents, Rule 5 and all the other moves to be made.

4th best in the AL. Which is right in the range you have. Behind the same 3 teams even. Not sure why you're calling the article a joke when you actually agree with it. Other than maybe you didn't read it closely enough to notice that it says very clearly "The Twins Have the AL’s Fourth Best Roster as the Offseason Begins" right in the title.

[Wayne]

Eloise must be turning in her grave, because of  her penny pinching sons who only want the billion dollar sale after paying 40 million.  Please sell and take Dave St Peter with you.

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

“Minnesota enters the offseason with no clear holes…”

Except 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and arguably Catcher. It could be argued that having a known starter at SS and CF that are both most like half time players brings those positions into question too. I understand the rose colored glasses are required on this forum, but blinders???

No one in MLB would argue that the Twins have a hole at catcher. Jeffers was a 2.1 bWAR player and is viewed as a quality starting catcher by every team and evaluator in baseball. Vazquez is still a quality defender as a backup.

We may not have certainty of quality performance at 2B and 3B, but we certainly have options with either good prospects or players who have performed at one point in Julien, Miranda, Lewis, or Lee plus Castro. Lewis and Julien were down in 2024, but were successful and important in 2023; models like FanGraphs don't write off a player completely and immediately at the first sign of failure...unlike fans.

I'd agree there's a bit of a hole at 1B, because I don't think the team will plug Miranda in there...but a model like FanGraphs would, quite reasonably.

[LastOnePicked]

4th? Really? Petriello does realize that there are more than five teams in the AL, right?

I mean, maybe. But the amount of added roster talent it would take to cover for the all-but-guaranteed Buxton, Correa and Lewis injuries would be very costly. I think "likely durability" should have been a factor in the rankings. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean the Twins were 4th in the AL in runs scored. So the offensive production quite literally did match up to this ranking. Recency bias is really making people forget how good this team was for the majority of the season. Does that mean they don't have work to do? Absolutely not. But people acting like this team was horrible all year is crazy. There is talent on this team. And the production was there. Even with the horrible collapse they still finished 4th in the AL in runs scored.

The roster is decent enough... The key is to not make it worse. Who they bring on is what will matter. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

4th best in the AL. Which is right in the range you have. Behind the same 3 teams even. Not sure why you're calling the article a joke when you actually agree with it. Other than maybe you didn't read it closely enough to notice that it says very clearly "The Twins Have the AL’s Fourth Best Roster as the Offseason Begins" right in the title.

They are fourth if you ignore the other four team I mention in the last sentence before the list and we finished behind three of them last year.  Yes I read the article, did you read all I wrote?  I had to say that, but I don't intend to argue further.

[D.C Twins]

But.... there is a wide confidence interval around the anticipated performance for most of the projected starters (based on injury or performance history)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Seems about right, to me, at this point. In basically the same position as they were at this point last year. Going into the offseason as one of the 3-6 best teams in the AL (by virtue of not having much roster turnover). The difference is that it was just over a year ago that Falvey threw cold water on the fan's excitement after a bit of a playoff run while this offseason had no excitement to douse because of the collapse. But my expectations are the same. Other teams will improve while the Twins fight to maintain. Which means by the end of the offseason I expect them to be more in the 6-10 best range instead.

If we're just going off of today, right now, this moment, I'd pick the central to be a fight between the Twins and the Guardians with the Tigers and Royals being a half step behind. Tigers and Royals in the 79-83 win range and Twins and Guardians in the 84-88 win range. Basically what I expected coming into this year. The question is going to be what each of those squads is able to do over the offseason to improve their teams. I have my doubts that the Twins can do a whole lot with no money. But we'll see what Falvey can come up with.

What lessons do the Twins learn from their late season collapse in 2024? How can they avoid a repeat? It wasn't just bad luck that caused this dismal play by the Twins. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

They are fourth if you ignore the other four team I mention in the last sentence before the list and we finished behind three of them last year.  Yes I read the article, did you read all I wrote?  I had to say that, but I don't intend to argue further.

I did read it all. You list 8 teams. 3 of them in the AL. Then say you have the Twins in the 9-12 range. I'm no super math whiz, but I'm pretty sure 9 comes directly after 8. So you have the Twins somewhere in the next 4 spots after the 8 teams you ranked. To call the article a joke for ranking them 4th while then ranking the Twins in the general 4-6 area feels like a weird choice.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What lessons do the Twins learn from their late season collapse in 2024? How can they avoid a repeat? It wasn't just bad luck that caused this dismal play by the Twins. 

Those are the questions, and I have no idea what the answers are. This article and the one it's based on are just talking about the rosters heading into the offseason, though. A lot will change between now and opening day 2025. How the Twins answer those questions will determine how 2025 goes for them. I hope their answer isn't that it was bad luck and they're good enough as is. I feel very strongly that that'd be a mistake. But I also feel strongly that the idea that this roster is closer to the white sox than yankees (or whoever you put at the top of the AL) is also a lot of recency bias and people forgetting how good they were for 75% of the season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The roster is decent enough... The key is to not make it worse. Who they bring on is what will matter. 

With the pressure to reduce payroll, who they subtract and how seems to matter a lot too

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

With the pressure to reduce payroll, who they subtract and how seems to matter a lot too

Yep

I've been to worse a few times. I own a cabin there. 

I know the way. There are couple of different roads that I can take. 

[USAFChief]

4th?

 

 

[Reptevia]

When this team continues to not reach “expected results”, eventually you have to question the relevancy of the metrics that predict those results.