Twins Leaving Bally Sports North: New TV Partner Will Be MLB Itself, Blackouts Are Gone

[S Bart]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

A small fraction.

This is a fan friendly move (finally)…assuming you’re a die-hard fan. But, it’s also admitting defeat by the Twins. Streaming services aren’t going to absorb what the cable companies finally rejected. The huge TV money is gone…and it ain’t coming back anytime soon.

This whole idea of the owner wanting/counting on the "up-front money" (as they did with Bally) to plan the payroll is a bit mindboggling to me. If they had GOOD business sense, they may realize that they could concentrate on fan friendly things that would fill the seats, sell the merchandise, etc. televised exposure is one way as well as special promotions (don't mean Bill Vick's disco night :)

[nicksaviking]

Good first step. Ending blackouts will keep the team in mind and help attendance too.

But only fervent baseball fans are going to seek out and pay $20 per month to watch the Twins. The teams on MLB.TV need to continue building enthusiasm and excitement for the product to get one of the big streamers to want to air them to a significantly larger audience.

The Padres, Guardians, Brewers and DBacks have done pretty good with that 'enthusiasm and excitement' part, the Twins aren't currently pulling their weight though.

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

A small fraction.

This is a fan friendly move (finally)…but it’s also admitting defeat by the Twins. Streaming services aren’t going to absorb what the cable companies finally rejected. The big TV money is gone…and it ain’t coming back anytime soon.

But it only takes a fraction to make a difference.  What’s a realistic number of yearly subscribers?  Statista had a 2017 survey where it was about 4% across the board, all ages.  It’s certainly higher now but 5% of new households is 220k subscribers.  Something like 22m dollars.  

4.4m is the new reach, what is total reach? What is a reasonable subscription rate?

It's cheaper than a single trip to the park. 

[jkcarew]

1 minute ago, S Bart said:

This whole idea of the owner wanting/counting on the "up-front money" (as they did with Bally) to plan the payroll is a bit mindboggling to me. If they had GOOD business sense, they may realize that they could concentrate on fan friendly things that would fill the seats, sell the merchandise, etc. televised exposure is one way as well as special promotions (don't mean Bill Vick's disco night :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

But it wasn’t that the money was “upfront” that attracted franchises to the RSN’s…it was the AMOUNT. It was more (ultimately, more than the market would bear). And now it will be less.

[IaBeanCounter]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure you are doing streaming wrong.  I've said previously that I'd help anyone get setup to stream games but this might be a next of kin question. 

I guess the Black Hills in South Dakota is still Rockies country.  The portion of Iowa is still concerning but hopefully they can cover it with something.  

If MLB can figure out how to broadcast everyone in Iowa, they'll be close to having this thing clicked. 

Is the $99 for all MLB games or just the Twins?  If it is all MLB games, MLB may have given areas to each team such that the Twins get x% of the $99 for each subscriber in the red area (whether a Twins fan or not) and Y% of all other subscribers.

[jkcarew]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

But it only takes a fraction to make a difference.  What’s a realistic number of yearly subscribers?  Statista had a 2017 survey where it was about 4% across the board, all ages.  It’s certainly higher now but 5% of new households is 220k subscribers.  Something like 22m dollars.  

4.4m is the new reach, what is total reach? What is a reasonable subscription rate?

It's cheaper than a single trip to the park. 

What lowers the cost for fans, lowers revenue for teams. The RSN model broke because nobody would distribute anymore at their cost…it was a money losing proposition for the distributors. It will now cost less for whoever distributes…middlemen (the RSN’s that were overpaying clubs and charging more than distributors were willing to pay) are gone. This is a win for consumers and a loss for the franchise. 100%. But also 100% inevitable.

[jkcarew]

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But only fervent baseball fans are going to seek out and pay $20 per month to watch the Twins. The teams on MLB.TV need to continue building enthusiasm and excitement for the product to get one of the big streamers to want to air them to a significantly larger audience.

This.

[Vanimal46]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But only fervent baseball fans are going to seek out and pay $20 per month to watch the Twins. The teams on MLB.TV need to continue building enthusiasm and excitement for the product to get one of the big streamers to want to air them to a significantly larger audience.

They would hit the trifecta if they negotiated a deal with an over the air channel to broadcast a game every week so new eyes can come across the content. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Is the $99 for all MLB games or just the Twins?  If it is all MLB games, MLB may have given areas to each team such that the Twins get x% of the $99 for each subscriber in the red area (whether a Twins fan or not) and Y% of all other subscribers.

50% of broadcast revenue is shared.

11 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

What lowers the cost for fans, lowers revenue for teams. The RSN model broke because nobody would distribute anymore at their cost…it was a money losing proposition for the distributors. It will now cost less for whoever distributes…middlemen (the RSN’s that were overpaying clubs and charging more than distributors were willing to pay) are gone. This is a win for consumers and a loss for the franchise. 100%. But also 100% inevitable.

It's a huge win for baseball fans. Instead of $1000/year it's $100/year to watch the team. It will take a few years for the free agent market to adjust but the best players will still make tens of millions.

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

What lowers the cost for fans, lowers revenue for teams. The RSN model broke because nobody would distribute anymore at their cost…it was a money losing proposition for the distributors. It will now cost less for whoever distributes…middlemen (the RSN’s that were overpaying clubs and charging more than distributors were willing to pay) are gone. This is a win for consumers and a loss for the franchise. 100%. But also 100% inevitable.

Well, the cost USED to be covered by advertisers and I'm pretty sure the NFL and NBA are doing great in that area. But the average Joe wouldn't recognize Jose Ramirez walking down the street, and 95% of the population probably has never heard of Bobby Witt Jr.

MLB has screwed up in so many ways, but this might be the worst. I mean we're living in an age where Youtube and Tik Tok nobodies are famous and there are advertisements plastered on every one of the two dozen screens in people's houses. How are the best baseball players in the world nearly anonymous?

[jkcarew]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well, the cost USED to be covered by advertisers and I'm pretty sure the NFL and NBA are doing great in that area. But the average Joe wouldn't recognize Jose Ramirez walking down the street, and 95% of the population probably has never heard of Bobby Witt Jr.

MLB has screwed up in so many ways, but this might be the worst. I mean we're living in an age where Youtube and Tik Tok nobodies are famous and there are advertisements plastered on every one of the two dozen screens in people's houses. How are the best baseball players in the world nearly anonymous?

Yep. How many people that were paying for a cable package that included Bally were paying because they wanted Wild games…or Timberwolves games…or the NFL network, etc. The answer is 100’s of thousands to be sure. That money is gone. Now the die-hard fan might be better off (especially if they live out of market)…but that will pale in comparison to the numbers of people that will be glad to have their cable bill reduced.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, Hubie29 said:

Do you think they will be available on DISH network?  How do you think it will work if so?

Dish as a standalone, unlikely. DirecTV will likely have it as a "channel" right next to where BSN already is. If the DirecTV/Dish merger is completed by next season (unlikely) then maybe.

[howeda7]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

They would hit the trifecta if they negotiated a deal with an over the air channel to broadcast a game every week so new eyes can come across the content. 

They 100% need to do this. Their Sunday games on Channel 29 back 2000-2010 used to put up some big #'s. And it won't effect the # who sign up for streaming much if at all.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

But it only takes a fraction to make a difference.  What’s a realistic number of yearly subscribers?  Statista had a 2017 survey where it was about 4% across the board, all ages.  It’s certainly higher now but 5% of new households is 220k subscribers.  Something like 22m dollars.  

4.4m is the new reach, what is total reach? What is a reasonable subscription rate?

It's cheaper than a single trip to the park. 

The Padres drew 40K.  The Twins would be thrilled to even marginally beat that.

They aren't pulling 200k.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

A small fraction.

This is a fan friendly move (finally)…assuming you’re a die-hard fan. But, it’s also admitting defeat by the Twins. Streaming services aren’t going to absorb what the cable companies finally rejected. The entities that ponied up the huge rights money are gone, and with them goes the huge TV revenue…and it ain’t coming back anytime soon.

I would estimate the Twins will pull around 20,000 subscribers.  I think the range is somewhere between 10k and 50k.

[The Great Hambino]

I’ve been very critical of how the front office has handled their TV situation, so I have to give them credit here - not just for making the leap, but making it decisively.  No farting around and letting the fans twist in the wind for yet another offseason.  Rip the bandaid off and adjust to the new normal.

Still a lot of questions left to be answered, such as any complimentary OTA/cable feeds ala the Padres model - and pretty please can the MLB.tv package season ticket holders get include the in market games? - but this is a great first step

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

Will everyone stay Like Audra Martin, Coury Provous, Justin Morneaou. Please tell me they are.

I'm OK with letting Smalley go.  Keep Plouffe.

[C-Gangster]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I'm OK with letting Smalley go.  Keep Plouffe.

In my opinion if anyone should go it should be Launder.

Edited October 8, 2024 by C-Gangster

[MinnesotaTwins26]

If anyone needs it, this site is a perfect description of the new Twins T.V deal.

Everything to know about the Minnesota Twins new TV deal and what it means for fans (puckettspond.com)

 

Edit: It doesn't show up as a link but if you click the text above it should transfer you to a website.

Edited October 8, 2024 by MinnesotaTwins26
Needed to add something

[UpstateNewYorker]

2 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Is the $99 for all MLB games or just the Twins?  If it is all MLB games, MLB may have given areas to each team such that the Twins get x% of the $99 for each subscriber in the red area (whether a Twins fan or not) and Y% of all other subscribers.

The $99 would be just for Twins games, according to a previous post: "The in-market, blackout-free streaming option for MLB-distributed teams last season was $99.99 for the season or $19.99 per month, and there seems to be a sense that Twins fans should expect similar."  I have the MLB.TV package (free because I have TMobile for cell service) but I think the whole MLB package was $139 last year. The Mets and Yankees games are blacked out for me here in NY State, because these broadcasts are not "MLB-distributed."

[Parfigliano]

I wonder if I can still get TC via DirecTV extra innings package like I have for the last 25+ years

[dberthia]

4 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

Will everyone stay Like Audra Martin, Coury Provous, Justin Morneaou. Please tell me they are.

According to Skor North on YouTube, Provus and Morneau are on board. Everybody else is TBD.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I wonder if the Pohlads realize that now their "TV" revenue will be largely dependent on how they take care of the on-field product?  Continuing to take the fans for granted will not work under this new structure.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

What? This same product has already been used for three other teams this past season....  How what will work for the season ticket holders? What?

I was a Twins season ticket holder the past few years. I got a complimentary MLB.TV package. I am wondering if Twins season ticket holders will receive complimentary Twins MLB.TV packages.

I will also believe it when I see it. Last year blackouts weren't going to be a thing, and then the Twins pivoted.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Padres drew 40K.  The Twins would be thrilled to even marginally beat that.

They aren't pulling 200k.

I see where they added that.  It's good context but completely different markets.  The Padres kept the existing cable and satellite deals so there was no dead spot to force a switch.  It was Bally on a Tuesday and MLB on Wednesday.  Many casual fans probably didn't notice. The Twins are adding twice as many households and in Twins territory, many of those households were completely frozen out or have been bounced around looking for a solution.  I think 40k is well within reach.

I live out of market so have been on the regular MLB app for years.  When I go to my hometown in North Dakota, all traces of the Twins are gone.  Blacked out 650 miles from the stadium and satellite being the only way to get an appropriate station for many years.  Lots of actual new reach which the Padres didn't really have.  I'll buy whatever the add on costs as I travel in the region enough to use it.

If they handle this correctly, big if obviously, they can find 40k subscribers outside the Twins Cities alone.  There are three thousand one-tap bars in the Dakotas that would sign up in a heartbeat.

They need to spend middle reliever money on the Winter Caravan this year and cover some damn ground.  Get west of Fargo for crying out loud. 

[Dlee]

I would be in for direct stream.  Hopefully games will be available for others through cable some way; like my neighbor who doesn't have internet or will be getting internet.  He is close to 80 and would be disappointed if wasn't able to watch.

would have to invite him over and do a fish fry and baseball game.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

Will everyone stay Like Audra Martin, Coury Provous, Justin Morneaou. Please tell me they are.

As I understand it, Audra Martin is a BSN employee. Provus, and Morneau are MN Twins employees.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office
 

[saviking]

All I care about is will revenue increase so payroll can increase. 

[TheLeviathan]

19 minutes ago, saviking said:

All I care about is will revenue increase so payroll can increase. 

Oh no, substantial drop.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I see where they added that.  It's good context but completely different markets.  The Padres kept the existing cable and satellite deals so there was no dead spot to force a switch.  It was Bally on a Tuesday and MLB on Wednesday.  Many casual fans probably didn't notice. The Twins are adding twice as many households and in Twins territory, many of those households were completely frozen out or have been bounced around looking for a solution.  I think 40k is well within reach.

I live out of market so have been on the regular MLB app for years.  When I go to my hometown in North Dakota, all traces of the Twins are gone.  Blacked out 650 miles from the stadium and satellite being the only way to get an appropriate station for many years.  Lots of actual new reach which the Padres didn't really have.  I'll buy whatever the add on costs as I travel in the region enough to use it.

If they handle this correctly, big if obviously, they can find 40k subscribers outside the Twins Cities alone.  There are three thousand one-tap bars in the Dakotas that would sign up in a heartbeat.

They need to spend middle reliever money on the Winter Caravan this year and cover some damn ground.  Get west of Fargo for crying out loud. 

I appreciate your optimism, but that is highly unlikely.  $20 a month is more money than you pay for Disney Plus or Netflix for a fraction of the content.  It also competes against the reality that pirating is free.  Hardcore baseball fans will love it, but that's all you'll get.  Casuals aren't dropping $20 a month.

The Padres getting 40K was considered a win.  (Manfred has been reported saying as much) It's the most of any of the teams using that option and none of the other teams have been reported.  (Guess why that is?)  

Your numbers are almost certainly not going to happen.