The Cost of Standing Still: How Padres Exemplify What Twins Should Have Done at Trade Deadline

[Matthew Taylor]

The Minnesota Twins’ decision to stand pat at the trade deadline, despite glaring bullpen needs, has backfired. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres took the opposite approach, aggressively adding key arms. The result? One team is thriving, and the other is fighting to keep its postseason hopes alive.

Image courtesy of © Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images

Heading into the 2024 trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins had a glaring issue that needed addressing: their bullpen. This wasn't some minor flaw; it was a growing concern that everyone from the front office to the fans could see. Brock Stewart’s injury was a red flag waving in the wind. He got hurt, came back, and then got hurt again. Chris Paddack, a rotation member to that point but an obvious candidate to move back to the bullpen, as he did last year, had just gone through the same pattern of return and reinjury. And after the deadline passed, Stewart would undergo surgery, perhaps never to pitch another inning for the Twins. Even more alarming was the regression of Caleb Thielbar, a once-reliable lefty who no longer had the consistency the team needed.

But despite all these warning signs, the Twins sat on their hands. With a deep farm system at their disposal and clear bullpen needs, they opted to do... nothing. Well, almost nothing. Trevor Richards came aboard, but let’s be honest, he’s a name we’d all rather forget, memorable only the way a fall from a tree is if you break your ankle when it happens. The inactivity at the deadline wasn’t just about roster evaluation—it was about money. Ownership didn’t want to spend, and you could almost feel the hesitation stemming from past failures (looking at you, Jorge López).

However, this cautious, do-nothing approach has backfired spectacularly. Since the trade deadline, the Twins’ bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA and 27th in WPA, only faring better than the likes of the White Sox, Pirates, and Red Sox. Simply put, it’s been a disaster, and the team is feeling the effects in the standings, now fighting to even stay in the Wild Card race.

Now, let’s flip to the other side of the country and take a look at the San Diego Padres. At the deadline, they found themselves in a strikingly similar position. Their bullpen ranked 17th in ERA, just behind the Twins, who sat 14th at the time. The Padres were 59-51; the Twins, 59-48. Both teams were battling for playoff positioning. But here’s where the two clubs diverged.

The Padres didn’t hesitate—they got aggressive. They brought in two of the top relievers available, in Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. It wasn’t cheap, requiring prospect capital and the risk of a trade blowing up in their faces, but the Padres’ front office believed in their scouting. And since the deadline, their faith has paid off in massive proportion. Adam has posted an absurd 0.78 ERA across 23 innings, while Scott has been rock solid, with a 2.45 ERA over 22 innings. Together, they’ve anchored a bullpen that now ranks 5th in baseball since the trade deadline.

While the Twins are 21-25 post-deadline and their bullpen is bottom-five, the Padres have surged, posting the best record in the major leagues during that same span. The difference? One team decided to stand pat, and the other pushed all their chips in.

Sure, the Twins could point to their past mistakes and say, “We’ve been burned before,” but at some point, caution turns into cowardice. Look, we all remember the López trade in 2022 and how that turned out. But for every López, there’s a Jason Adam or a Tanner Scott waiting to be acquired. The Padres took that chance, and it’s paying off in real time.

What’s even more frustrating is that the Twins knew they had to build some depth in the bullpen, knowing Stewart wasn’t coming back and needing insurance in case other guys—like Kody Funderburk or Justin Topa—couldn’t hold up. But instead of anticipating those losses and preparing for the inevitable, they crossed their fingers and hoped things would just work out. Things didn’t.

And now, here we are. The Twins are in a dogfight to even make the postseason, while the Padres are cruising into October with a fortified bullpen and a team built for the playoffs. Ownership’s lack of willingness to invest in this roster at the deadline is directly responsible for the Twins' current predicament. The aggressive approach could’ve positioned this team for a playoff run, but instead, they missed the boat.

It’s not just about what could’ve been—it’s about what should’ve been. The Padres are the perfect case study in why aggression at the trade deadline matters. They believed in their scouting, made bold moves, and are now reaping the rewards. The Twins, on the other hand, played it safe. And now, they’re paying the price.

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[NotAboutWinning]

Great article Matthew! I'd go a step further and say the way the deadline was handled made the team worse. Trevor Richards literally made the team worse. But the actions of ownership and the FO destroyed the morale of the team. You can see it in the way they have played, and in the discontent that has flowed from the clubhouse. You might say "look at Detroit, they sold and got better". Yes. They sold and brought up young players and gave them a shot, rather than letting them sit on the bench for 2 weeks and sending them back down. How did this become such a poorly run organization??

[Fezig]

In defense of the front office. Their track record or trading for pitchers is atrocious. That is, of course, unless they are looking to trade for pitchers to place on the IL. 

[Coach Wheels]

4 minutes ago, Fezig said:

In defense of the front office. Their track record or trading for pitchers is atrocious. That is, of course, unless they are looking to trade for pitchers to place on the IL. 

100% agree. These 2 leaders of the front office have historically shopped for players like my wife at Sam's Club. Always signing guys coming off injuries and no one else wants. It's crazy

[jmlease1]

agree 100% with this article. Really poor decision-making by the franchise to sit on their hands at the deadline when it was clear they needed pitching reinforcements. I don't have a problem with them  choosing not to add starting pitching: the options weren't that impressive out there and there's a wave of young starters in the system. Happy to go with the youngsters.

But the bullpen unquestionably needed the help and there were options out there, and the Twins certainly had the trade capital to get it done. They needed a reliable LH reliever, they needed another consistent arm to bridge to the top guys and/or give Jax/Duran some more relief. And they didn't do it. Have to wonder if it was the front office being gun-shy or ownership refusing to add salary. I'm betting it's the latter.

[FargoFanMan]

Great article! While everyone from the players, Falvey and Baldelli all said the politically correct thing after the deadline you don’t think they were upset at all? I get that the mentality has to be “Ok, we didn’t get anybody and we have to keep fighting.” And “The front office believes in who we got here.” But now that the thing they were trying to avoid is happening it’s gotta be super frustrating. Also to happen 2 years in a row is crazy. As a player or manager does it start creeping in what could have been? What happens if you got a guy last year to shut down Alvarez and Tucker? Or got a guy at this years deadline that could have come in and secured a few of those blown losses? We know they’ll always say the right thing but they’re human. There’s gotta be doubts lurking in everyone’s minds at this point.

[mnfireman]

[Mark G]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

Agreed.  But in this case foresight was just as clear.  

[karcherd]

We don't know if it was ownership or the FO that caused the inactivity at the trade deadline.  Ownership has stepped up in the past when needing money at the trade deadline and they knew more about the tv deal for this year at the deadline.  The FO has a history of waiting out the market even when they have money to spend and then scrambling to make a move after every other team has.  This happened in both the offseason and at the trade deadline.

This front office is risk averse and I don't think they should be given a pass, because I believe based on their history they sat back and then there was nothing left because they were passive.

 

[FargoFanMan]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Agreed.  But in this case foresight was just as clear.  

Exactly! Also, as a professional sports organization especially in baseball you weren’t expecting any injuries or regressions at the end of a 6 month season? Falvey and Levine are smarter than that. This is billionaire ownership worried about money and that’s sad. 

[silverslugger]

I'm completely flummoxed as a fan. 

Evidence A:  I HATE the way ownership has handled the last twelve months.  The TV deal fiasco has been both a PR and logistics nightmare, and how much can ownership or the front office really do about it?  Whatever they have or haven't done, well, see above.

Evidence B: I love what Falvine have done to build the farm system and find diamonds in the rough pitching-wise for the organization.  I HATE what they've done at the trade deadline and in bringing in players with extremely questionable medicals.  Are they a great front office?  Or merely average?  Are their hands tied by ownership?  Or is most of this by their own doing?

Evidence C:  Rocco is seen as a player-friendly manager who manages games so that players stay fresh.  We're never fresh in September/October when it counts.  Our defense is usually putrid and our offense goes into extreme funks for extended periods of time.  Players certainly don't seem to be held accountable.

And, so here we are, good but not great and always falling apart in the end.

[nicksaviking]

The prices for relief pitchers at the trade deadline was absurd. I'm not too disappointed they didn't pay those prices.

What I'm disappointed in is during the off season the team targeted no-name relievers in their mid 30's who had next to no track record of sustained success. The Rays get away with this, Terry Ryan actually used to be pretty good at this, but so far, Thad Levine has not shown a knack for this.

Get a higher class of bullpen arms right away and don't put yourself in position to be gouged in July.

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

Falvey and Levine are smarter than that.

Never assume that someone is intelligent just because they've had success. 

[FargoFanMan]

11 minutes ago, karcherd said:

We don't know if it was ownership or the FO that caused the inactivity at the trade deadline.  Ownership has stepped up in the past when needing money at the trade deadline and they knew more about the tv deal for this year at the deadline.  The FO has a history of waiting out the market even when they have money to spend and then scrambling to make a move after every other team has.  This happened in both the offseason and at the trade deadline.

This front office is risk averse and I don't think they should be given a pass, because I believe based on their history they sat back and then there was nothing left because they were passive.

 

The signs all point to money. The TV fiasco aspect has hamstrung this franchise. When your bullpen is showing signs of failing, one of your top pitchers goes down and you turn to rookie pitchers who are approaching they’re most innings ever it points to money. The fact that their were guys on the waiver wire who could have helped in august and you’re not willing to take on 5 million points to money. And that message comes from accounting which points to ownership. The Joe Pohlad “right size” interview points to money. When the front office makes moves every deadline (good or bad) except the last 2 points to the tv situation which points to money. 

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, FargoFanMan said:

The signs all point to money. The TV fiasco aspect has hamstrung this franchise. When your bullpen is showing signs of failing, one of your top pitchers goes down and you turn to rookie pitchers who are approaching they’re most innings ever it points to money. The fact that their were guys on the waiver wire who could have helped in august and you’re not willing to take on 5 million points to money. And that message comes from accounting which points to ownership. The Joe Pohlad “right size” interview points to money. When the front office makes moves every deadline (good or bad) except the last 2 points to the tv situation which points to money. 

And when has this front office been the first team to make a move.  They let the market play out and are not aggressive and that is why their moves don't work out more than they do.  I am not pro ownership but it feels a lot like there is a lot of twisting thoughts into making them known as facts to fit a narrative.

[FargoFanMan]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Never assume that someone is intelligent just because they've had success. 

Really??? When they’ve made moves at every deadline except the last two? The last two deadlines when the TV deal loomed overhead? Maybe they haven’t always made the right moves but they made moves. They tried to improve the team. Connect the dots. This is ownership not willing to take on any money no matter what. You think Falvey and Levine are stupid? Really? Come on.

[NYCTK]

The San Diego Padres are a great example of what the Twins could be if they had an owner that wasn't awful. The padres used to be owned by old losers too, but the Krocs sold the team. The team passed through some different hands before arriving where they are now. 

Ten years ago, the two franchises weren't too dissimilar. Beautiful ballpark in downtown area, comparable market size (although Twin Cities are larger), similar franchise value, similar payroll. 

And then, something happened. Peter Siedler bought out the rest of the owners and said, 'eff this, why is a billionaire running a sports franchise like a McDonald's and not like a team trying to be exciting and win a championship?' 

And since then, the Padres entire culture has changed. Sure, they lost $60 million in 2023...but the franchise grew $200 million in value. So why would a billionaire care? 

Padres are out there spending, and trying, and the fans are rewarding them. They're going to the park. They're going from passive fans to loyal fans. The investment is paying off. 

The Mets are trying the same thing, but obviously the market isn't at all comparable. But I can tell you Mets fandom in the city is no longer a punchline. It's a common occurrence. The Mets are exciting. 

And the Twins could be too. 

[stringer bell]

It seems that the cap on spending for the Twins has been pretty firm going all the way back to the off season. They couldn't sign Santana until they got the salary proceeds from the Polanco deal, they got Margot when other teams paid for most of his salary and they haven't added much more than minimum salaries since. The relief pitchers they did acquire shared the attribute that their salaries were low for their age and experience, mostly due to injury history. 

Trading for relief pitchers is a risky business and as noted above, the Twins haven't done well in many of those transactions. The anticipated depth has vanished and we're looking at Ronny Henriquez, Scott Blewett, Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin in the bullpen. 

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

Really??? When they’ve made moves at every deadline except the last two? The last two deadlines when the TV deal loomed overhead? Maybe they haven’t always made the right moves but they made moves. They tried to improve the team. Connect the dots. This is ownership not willing to take on any money no matter what. You think Falvey and Levine are stupid? Really? Come on.

They added Trevor Richards (that was his name right?) at the trade deadline. They traded for Manuel Margot. They gave Carlos Correa a massive contract after multiple other teams ripped up their deals due to health concerns...and we've seen that once mvp caliber player become a part time injury risky. 

So...maybe? 

[KikiMN]

Does someone get fired if we don't make progress in the post season?

[NYCTK]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

prices for relief pitchers at the trade deadline was absurd. I'm not too disappointed they didn't pay those prices.

The top guys, sure. But in general that's not true. Erceg went for three warm bodies. 

[LambchoP]

I completely understand not wanting to pay the huge prospect price for some of the starters that were available, but you can't tell me we couldn't have given up one or two mid level guys for someone like AJ Puk, who was a perfect lefty for for our pen, has been dominant since the trade, AND is under control next year too. Our GM is a coward. We hoarded prospects, great. Some of them might pan out,most won't. I sure hope they try to leverage some of them for some pitching help this off-season. If they stand on their hands and do nothing again aside from a few minor league injured cast offs, this fandom will revolt, as they should!

[Maybebaby]

Maybe the FO is a little gun shy since I can't remember any relief pitcher acquired under their watch moved the needle for the team.  But if you can't run with the big dogs stay on the porch and that's what they are doing right now, and I for one hate it.  Throw a top prospect or 2 for some genuine relief pitcher or 2.  Then again there was that last magnificent trade with the Reds....and we all know how that worked out.  Milked again!

[Doctor Gast]

It's all ownership's fault, if they only had a little bit more money they could have acquired Rhys Hoskins (who everyone & the FO wanted) in the offseason & brought back MAT. That'd have solved all our problems. All sarcasm aside beginning the offseason we had a great core of players that finally had postseason success. Together with key players returning from injuries & promising young rookies. The only real hole we had was the departure of Gray, With the hopes that Ober & Ryan would take that next step,  All we needed was to make a small trade for a mid-rotation inning-eating MLB arm w/o spending a dime. Instead, they decided to waste precious money on frivolous salaries that ham-strung us & made us weaker not stronger.

Our BP weakness showed up early especially LRPs. MIA had been ready to trade A J Puk for any promising prospect, again w/o spending a dime. FO only needed to see our need early & make the trade. They didn't, their strategy is wait & see what's available which is normally scraps. 

Ownership shot themselves in the foot in response to the Bally fiasco. But the state of the Twins is FO's fault. Due to not being able to evaluate our real need & react quickly plus not being able to initiate a critical trade. Money is going to be an issue forthwith, FO needs to be able to evaluate, develop & make critical trades. A little extra money won't be able to replace that.

[TopGunn#22]

GREAT point LambchoP !!  AJ Puk should have been at the top of our "shopping list" for all the reasons you just stated.  Yet he wasn't.  The comparison of the Twins and Padres is excellent.  We are two, very similar franchises heading in different directions.  They really ARE what we COULD be.  

Maybe that's because the Padres realize that they are in the same division as the mighty Dodgers.  And a Giants organization that spends as well.  You have the D-Backs, who miraculously made it to the World Series last year.  San Diego can't take anything for granted.  

And then you have the often maligned A.L. Central, which now seems to have 4 teams capable of making some noise.  Three of those teams are doing everything they can to win the division or make the playoffs.  We know who they are, and the Twins are not one of them.

We had a similar thread in which I expressed my frustration for accountability.  Is it ownership or the front office?  The front office, when given the chance has made some truly BAD moves.  They clearly, if given the opportunity, have a lot of cognitive dissonance when it comes to making trades. 

The back and forth the fan base gets from ownership and the front office as to who ultimately determines what moves are made is frustrating.  Ownership "says" Falvey & Levine are free to do what is needed to better the team and the front office "says" ownership is not holding them back.

But then you acquire Trevor Richards at the deadline and act like you brought in Mariano Rivera.  

My frustration with this lack of accountability is obvious.  The bottom line is that when there is any doubt, you go to the top.  Ownership is the real problem with this franchise.  They run the Twins like they would a bank.  The Twins are not a bank.  Nobody has feelings for Wells Fargo like they do for the Twins. 

I'm frustrated with ownership but I know we're probably stuck with them.  I'm frustrated with the front office because they have an Eddie Julien batting average on trades.  I'm frustrated with Rocco because he manages by spread sheet and seems to have no feel for the game. 

But even if the Twins cleaned house and brought in Terry Francona to manage (a proven winner).  If they replaced the entire front office...we'd STILL be stuck with the Pohlad's.  Maybe we could succeed with a better manager and a front office with a better track record on trades.  But with the Pohlad's...maybe not.   

 

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The San Diego Padres are a great example of what the Twins could be if they had an owner that wasn't awful. The padres used to be owned by old losers too, but the Krocs sold the team. The team passed through some different hands before arriving where they are now. 

Ten years ago, the two franchises weren't too dissimilar. Beautiful ballpark in downtown area, comparable market size (although Twin Cities are larger), similar franchise value, similar payroll. 

And then, something happened. Peter Siedler bought out the rest of the owners and said, 'eff this, why is a billionaire running a sports franchise like a McDonald's and not like a team trying to be exciting and win a championship?' 

And since then, the Padres entire culture has changed. Sure, they lost $60 million in 2023...but the franchise grew $200 million in value. So why would a billionaire care? 

Padres are out there spending, and trying, and the fans are rewarding them. They're going to the park. They're going from passive fans to loyal fans. The investment is paying off. 

The Mets are trying the same thing, but obviously the market isn't at all comparable. But I can tell you Mets fandom in the city is no longer a punchline. It's a common occurrence. The Mets are exciting. 

And the Twins could be too. 

While I am by no means a pocket protector for the Pohlads, and have been incredibly vocal on these boards since November about how terribly they've handled everything since the playoffs, and think they could absolutely spend more if they wanted to, you're missing a really important piece of the Padres decisions...Peter Siedler was dying. He went crazy on spending because he wanted to bring his team a championship before he passed. Unfortunately that didn't happen. And they've cut back on spending since. Sielder said "eff this" because he knew he was running out of time. That's a significantly different situation to be saying "eff this" in.

[1985Fan]

It’s not so obvious that the BP is the problem for this team. This BP did a fantastic job during the Cleveland series and last night in Boston. Are they perfect? No! Could they better? Yes! If Rocco used his BP a little better, the two arms he has might be a little more fresh. 
Last night he used Blewett in a late inning tie game because he had to. Blewett pitched great. Rocco has let him and Tonkin sit in the BP during all of these extra inning games while wearing everyone else out. 
Blame the BP for all of the recent poor play, but it’s the offense that has failed. Every hitter on this team has had chance after chance to drive in runs in critical situations but has failed. Jeffers, Lee, Santana, and many others have stopped hitting. Some of that you can attribute to the pitching they’re facing. If you want to be a championship team, you have to hit good pitching. Expecting the pitching staff to hold opponents scoreless every game is not realistic.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Typical Twins behavior.  Never wanting to "go for it" in fear of losing a precious unproven at the MLB level prospect.

[TopGunn#22]

That's a good point 1985Fan.  The situational hitting on this team has been and still is atrocious.  It's not just that they can't get the clutch 2-out hit.  It's that they strike out SO MUCH and seldom ever make a "productive out" by advancing the runner on 2nd base with nobody out to 3rd base.  

We don't bunt.  We don't hit-and-run.  We rarely steal bases.  We are seldom are aggressive on the base paths.  These are all "in-game" situations that we consistently fail at that are frustrating.  We need a philosophical change in how we approach these situations at bat by at bat. 

We seem to be a team of "guess hitters."  Julien looks completely out of synch.  Buxton seems to "pre-determine" that he's going to swing at whatever the 2-0 pitch is because "it's gotta be a good pitch to hit...right??"   

[NYCTK]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I am by no means a pocket protector for the Pohlads, and have been incredibly vocal on these boards since November about how terribly they've handled everything since the playoffs, and think they could absolutely spend more if they wanted to, you're missing a really important piece of the Padres decisions...Peter Siedler was dying. He went crazy on spending because he wanted to bring his team a championship before he passed. Unfortunately that didn't happen. And they've cut back on spending since. Sielder said "eff this" because he knew he was running out of time. That's a significantly different situation to be saying "eff this" in.

While it's true he wanted to see them win before he passes, the change didn't happen because he got sick. He jacked up expenditures long before that. 

He was one of the billionaires that understood being rich has no value if you're not investing it in your community. He was well known to invest in San Diego, particularly homeless initiatives. 

Meanwhile our owner started earning his wealth by making people homeless. Go figure. 

I'm sure Carl is looking up at his family and smiling at their financial prudence.