Awaiting Another MRI, Chris Paddack's Outlook Grows Murkier

[Nick Nelson]

Will Chris Paddack pitch for the Minnesota Twins again this year? As each week passes with a lack of tangible progress, it grows less likely. Now we have to wonder about what next year holds, since the righty's contract currently positions him as one of the team's five highest-paid players for 2025.

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

When Chris Paddack went back onto the injured list after returning from a bout with arm fatigue and making two starts ahead of the All-Star break, the Twins publicly expressed minimal concern.

"It doesn't seem like anything major, to be honest," said manager Rocco Baldelli of Paddack feeling tightness while throwing over the break. "His elbow seems fine, the ligament seems fine, everything seems fine. It's some sort of muscle strain and should heal up."

In retrospect, much like the team's initial reactions to the Carlos Correa, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton injuries, this one now looks like wishful thinking. One month later, Paddack has made no real progress toward returning, and it doesn't sound like he's close. 

In his latest article at The Athletic, Dan Hayes runs through a litany of injury updates, including some news regarding Paddack. Hayes shares that, per head trainer Nick Paparesta, the right-hander "won’t go full throttle until he has a second MRI on Aug. 27 and is cleared by Dr. Keith Meister."

"Once that's cleared up, we'll get him moving a bit quicker," Paparesta added. Which sounds fine in theory except that by that point, the end of the season is only a month away, and he won't have pitched for six weeks. Getting Paddack up to speed for even a relief role leading into the playoffs, similar to last year, feels like a bit of a pipe dream at this stage.

 

There's been no word of a setback, but it's hard to believe something hasn't gone amiss. Eight days ago, on August 9th, it was reported that Paddack was "tracking really well," in the words of Derek Falvey, who added that the pitcher could be cleared to start a throwing program "really soon." Evidently, that's off the table.

It's probably best to stop thinking about Paddack as a factor for the rest of this season and wondering about what next year holds. By virtue of the three-year contract extension he signed in January of 2023, he'll make $7.5 million guaranteed next season – only Correa, Pablo López, Buxton and Christian Vázquez are slated to earn more.

That commitment wouldn't be a huge deal under normal circumstances, but with the ownership-mandated payroll crunch being faced by the front office, Paddack's salary looms large in their planning. Personally, I'm more interested in what that MRI scheduled for August 27th tells us about his outlook for next year than the rest of this year. 

What are your thoughts? Will Paddack pitch again for the Twins this season? What's your confidence level in him looking ahead to 2025? Sound off in the comments.

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[Fatbat]

They are milking the DL list because they have young options. MRI will be clear on 8/27 and the Sheriff will ramp up for 3 weeks and bring his guns to the show for October.  Our FO has a plan. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

They are milking the DL list because they have young options. MRI will be clear on 8/27 and the Sheriff will ramp up for 3 weeks and bring is guns to the show for October.  Our FO has a plan. 

Now that's the kind of optimism I need!

[nova_twins]

Yeah they're just screwed with Paddack. Not even sure what the upside scenario is at this point. He comes back near the end to hopefully salvage some small amount of trade value? (meaning another club would pay a portion of his salary, certainly no one is taking all 7.5)

If he could hold up physically out of the bullpen, might get some 2025 value there, but that seems doubtful too. 

[Linus]

To make matters worse he hasn’t been that good either. I’m sure the Twins would love to dump him on somebody next year. That trade is really looking no bueno. 

[Brandon]

If he can come back and get to 110 innings on the year he will be worth it for this season.  Next year hoping for 120-140 innings and then we can move on.  If he is able to pitch again this year he should be a good addition to the pen for the playoffs. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

 the righty's contract currently positions him as one of the team's five highest-paid players for 2025.

I'd leave this alone but you circled back to it again to close the article, so I just have to say that if $7.5M is fifth highest on this pathetically small payroll, there are bigger topics to talk about for next year than just Chris Paddack.

Anyway as another poster noted, we'll forget about the timeline the rest of this season if Paddack comes in and makes an impact mid-game in the post-season.  Hopefully again and again, as the team makes an extended run this time.  I think he's got what it takes as a closer, even;  it was enjoyable last year to watch the Sheriff come into the game going all-out.

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, nova_twins said:

Yeah they're just screwed with Paddack. Not even sure what the upside scenario is at this point. He comes back near the end to hopefully salvage some small amount of trade value? (meaning another club would pay a portion of his salary, certainly no one is taking all 7.5)

If he could hold up physically out of the bullpen, might get some 2025 value there, but that seems doubtful too. 

Have you considered it a consensual agreement? He gets arm rest. Keeps his core in tact and comes back a monster for 4 weeks. And why would we trade him next year? Rely on 3 sophomore rookies and Varland to be 2/5 of a pitching staff? He isnt going anywhere.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm afraid we are stuck with Paddack. The Twins don't know how to unload players unless we want someone worse in return. Hopefully, Paddack will come back & give us something for a return. 

[Fatbat]

Paddack is still young. He does NOT have a massive contract going forward. This being his first full year removed from a 2nd TJ puts him in line to be a solid to way above average  SP for years.  

[bean5302]

The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can.
The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises.
$4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1
$4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1
$3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1
$2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1
$1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1
$8MM Willi Castro Arb 3
$5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1
$3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1
$2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1
$1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

If he can come back and get to 110 innings on the year he will be worth it for this season.  Next year hoping for 120-140 innings and then we can move on.  If he is able to pitch again this year he should be a good addition to the pen for the playoffs. 

This season is the 3rd highest innings pitched total of Paddack's MLB career. He has pitched 140 innings once, 5 years ago. Paddack gave the Twins about what I expected to get from him this season.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm afraid we are stuck with Paddack. The Twins don't know how to unload players unless we want someone worse in return. Hopefully, Paddack will come back & give us something for a return. 

Someone already forgot the Josh Donaldson trade.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

They should absolutely be shopping Paddack this offseason. Someone might give them a couple decent Double-A pitchers in return.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Paddack is still young. He does NOT have a massive contract going forward. This being his first full year removed from a 2nd TJ puts him in line to be a solid to way above average  SP for years.  

I dont mind them taking their time bringing him back.  It's probably better for both this season as next. 

I know everyone wants to write guys off the first chance they get but fortunately the front office has patience unavailable to the internet. 

It's easy to forget how easy it is for a starting pitcher to be worth a 7.5m salary.  He's been worth 8.5m already this year. 

I also wouldn't mind if they got some nice trade pieces back as he should have good value but I'd rather gamble on the trade deadline. If he proves healthy next year he would be worth a major haul at the deadline.

[HerbieFan]

Just put him in the bullpen if he comes back this year.  Since they're stuck having to pay him in 2025, I'd start him out in the 'pen next year too.

[Hubie29]

No big loss.  Just another fringe starter we should have never traded for. 

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can.
The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises.
$4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1
$4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1
$3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1
$2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1
$1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1
$8MM Willi Castro Arb 3
$5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1
$3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1
$2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1
$1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.

Or they just pay guys to win championships.  Ownership needs to pay out to keep this team intact!!!  The whole team needs to return minus Margot.  Add 1 or 2 new faces and pay all the kids.  $7.5M for a #3/4 starter in Paddack who can go to the pen in October,  you can’t buy that for less in the open market. 

[mark allen]

seems like were  mad if they trade for someone, and mad if they don't.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

$7.5M for a #3/4 starter in Paddack who can go to the pen in October,  you can’t buy that for less in the open market. 

Probably true, but also why he's decent trade bait. Is Paddack a better bet than Mathews or Festa next season? If he's blocking players with more upside then he should be dealt. If he can return prospects with more long-term potential he should be dealt.

I'll put it another way. If Paddack was on a different team, would you want the Twins to trade FOR him? Keep in mind he threw 88 innings with a 5 ERA and makes $7.5M.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

First off, this is a future Falvey problem. Secondly, it seems you may be a bit high on a few arb deals, maybe like $5-8M too generous. Thirdly, I believe the payroll will settle around $135-140M next season.

Most importantly, no reason to worry about these details until November. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

First off, this is a future Falvey problem. Secondly, it seems you may be a bit high on a few arb deals, maybe like $5-8M too generous. Thirdly, I believe the payroll will settle around $135-140M next season.

Most importantly, no reason to worry about these details until November. 

First off... I'm really not sure what you're disagreeing with or taking issue with here? Yep. 2025 is definitely in the future. Are you disagreeing that it'd be good for the Twins to have Chris Paddack having a higher value?

Second, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ Project player WAR, multiply it by the arbitration multiplier in the chart, probably add a little because it's a historical table. If anything, I'd say I'm a tick conservative.
ex. Bailey Ober = 2.5 current, 3.0 WAR x 1.38 + 0.76 = $4.9MM vs. My estimate $4.5MM
ex. Griffin Jax = 1.8 current, 2.3 WAR x 1.79 + 0.76 = $4.8MM vs. My estimate $3.0MM

Third. It's widely expected the Twins are going to further cut payroll in 2025. The Pohlad's were incredibly tight fisted this deadline. Attendance is down. They struggled to find TV partners this past offseason. I just don't see any way they expand payroll apart from them making the World Series.

Certainly if the Twins make or win the World Series, there will be more money available. I'm all for it. I'm just not counting on it.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Or they just pay guys to win championships.  Ownership needs to pay out to keep this team intact!!!  The whole team needs to return minus Margot.  Add 1 or 2 new faces and pay all the kids.  $7.5M for a #3/4 starter in Paddack who can go to the pen in October,  you can’t buy that for less in the open market. 

There is no indication the Pohlad's are going to expand the payroll. Aside from that, you sure are bullish on a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA over his past 5 years.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Probably true, but also why he's decent trade bait. Is Paddack a better bet than Mathews or Festa next season? If he's blocking players with more upside then he should be dealt. If he can return prospects with more long-term potential he should be dealt.

I'll put it another way. If Paddack was on a different team, would you want the Twins to trade FOR him? Keep in mind he threw 88 innings with a 5 ERA and makes $7.5M.

Pitchers have never blocked anyones path on the Twins or any other team. You never have enough of it.  If his arm checked out and we needed him to fill a hole in the rotation next year, we would be out bid for his services by a big pocket team. He will be better the further away from TJ that he gets. 

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

we would be out bid for his services by a big pocket team.

If that's true then I want the prospects from the big pocket team who rate better than the prospects the Twins would be willing to trade to acquire Paddack.

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Someone already forgot the Josh Donaldson trade.

No I didn't, That trade decimated our catching depth from one of the best to much worse. & 3B became worse. Did you forget? 

[Eris]

Paddock has had 2 TJ, there is probably not of guidance for this and I would expect the Twins to be super cautious. 

[Whitey333]

Paddock is ok but not great.  Seems he is being way over valued.  He's a below average major league pitcher!  I just don't see other teams wanting him. Two Tommy John surgeries is not a positive.  Twins will dump more payroll for next year.  Twins continue to down play injuries only to not see the players return for several weeks.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

First off... I'm really not sure what you're disagreeing with or taking issue with here? Yep. 2025 is definitely in the future. Are you disagreeing that it'd be good for the Twins to have Chris Paddack having a higher value?

Second, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ Project player WAR, multiply it by the arbitration multiplier in the chart, probably add a little because it's a historical table. If anything, I'd say I'm a tick conservative.
ex. Bailey Ober = 2.5 current, 3.0 WAR x 1.38 + 0.76 = $4.9MM vs. My estimate $4.5MM
ex. Griffin Jax = 1.8 current, 2.3 WAR x 1.79 + 0.76 = $4.8MM vs. My estimate $3.0MM

Third. It's widely expected the Twins are going to further cut payroll in 2025. The Pohlad's were incredibly tight fisted this deadline. Attendance is down. They struggled to find TV partners this past offseason. I just don't see any way they expand payroll apart from them making the World Series.

Certainly if the Twins make or win the World Series, there will be more money available. I'm all for it. I'm just not counting on it.

Not disagreeing ... simply  suggesting that these issues are not very relevant now because we shall see the 2025 roster put together starting in November. 

As far as Paddack goes, he was a darling of numerous teams and the Twins thought they would get something out of him. The 2025 contract is not a killer for the Pohlads. The payroll concern is overstated. Fans shouldn't worry about these numbers. There will be players dropped and  added, same as it ever was. The numbers are a guessing game and I'm content to know the details later.

[arby58]

18 hours ago, nova_twins said:

Yeah they're just screwed with Paddack. Not even sure what the upside scenario is at this point. He comes back near the end to hopefully salvage some small amount of trade value? (meaning another club would pay a portion of his salary, certainly no one is taking all 7.5)

If he could hold up physically out of the bullpen, might get some 2025 value there, but that seems doubtful too. 

$7.5 million isn't a king's ransom for a starting pitcher in today's MLB. The good news is the Twins have lots of young pitchers on minimum salaries, so I wouldn't sweat it. I would take a chance on him coming back next year.