Derek Falvey's Pitching Pipeline Could Decide the Twins' Fate in 2024 and Beyond

[Linus]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I just don't get this attitude that they can't win with rookies. 

I didn’t say they couldn’t just that history would suggest two pitchers with no MLB experience are likely to struggle enough that it might cost us a playoff spot this year. Obviously I hope I’m wrong. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

It wasn’t meant as a knock of Falvey so much as what he had to work with when he arrived. 

Suxton

Kepler 

Polanco

Garver

Kirilloff

Wade

Gordon had one good Year

Sano

Escobar

Dozier

and Mauer 

they were all in the system.

oops, forgot Jose Miranda 

[Fatbat]

49 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Suxton

Kepler 

Polanco

Garver

Kirilloff

Wade

Gordon had one good Year

Sano

Escobar

Dozier

and Mauer 

they were all in the system.

3 guys on the team from that list. One on IL and zero pitchers in our org from your list. 

[jorgenswest]

What is the fascination with the word pipeline among writers and bloggers? I don’t think Falvey ever said it but somehow it is “Falvey’s Pipeline”. The problem with pipeline is there is no definition and hence a bar that can never be achieved.

He did say in his opening press conference …

Quote

“With pitching, I think you want to explore every avenue and opportunity to add talent,” Falvey said. “Whether that’s being opportunistic in the free agent market, or through trades, or through unique development philosophies, which I think are things that we will apply moving forward, there’s no one way to attack that.

and

Quote

We will commit to being collaborative in our approach to pitching development. It’s something I feel very strongly about. Utilizing different resources to help us develop the current pitchers that are on the staff and the players coming up through the minor leagues. We wouldn’t shut out any avenue to acquire or develop a player, and I expect that will be a slight change from how we’ve operated here, but I look forward to leading that.

I think he has been true to those ideals. The pipeline seems to be a creation of podcasters or maybe TD itself.

It is important to build a pitching staff with a foundation of controllable assets. Pitching in free agency is so expensive and lower tier free agents are too often unsuccessful. A foundation is best built by developing through the minors and acquiring pitchers in trade with multiple years of control. I think that has been a success. They did have a need for one more starter this year. Filling that spot with DeSclafani was a predictable failure. On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.

 

[karcherd]

20 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.

No that is on Falvey and how he chose to allocate his resources.  Now do I wish that he was given a bigger budget, yes but to keep blaming the Pohlads is the easy way out.  They have given him larger budgets and he has produced one playoff series win.  Maybe it's not all about money but how the money is being spent.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

yes, imagine how great it would look if the front office never missed on a single draft pick and no one ever got hurt.

This is, of course, a record that no team has now, nor has ever had.

(also? Prato was a 7th round pick who is in AAA. I mean, come on. We're gonna take a poke at the FO for not turning a 7th round pick into MLB gold?)

Prato, because they should have drafted a pitcher in the 7th rd. Prato was a wasted pick. 
Cavaco, and Sabato… because any other draftee which a blind, deaf and dumb guy could have done better picking. 

There is a reason why our farm system and draft has improved in the last few years and luck is just a part of it.  Doing skillful research and development is most of the success.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am excited to see Zebby Matthews tonight. I don’t see a lot of movement on his fastball from those video clips, but his excellent command of several pitches (according to some reports) may be able to overcome that. The Twins seem to be leaning less and less on fastballs and that has worked to Twins pitchers advantage. 

As for the rest, it’s always yet to be seen. Festa looks like just a guy, albeit a great achievement to make it to the majors. I liked Cory Lewis at one point but Lewis needs to get his walks down. Woods Richardson may be the best surprise so far, maybe being in the bigs was actually the best place for him to be and helped him turn that corner. Still too early to be sure with SWR.

I remember wanting PJ Walters, Scott Diamond, and Andrew Albers to be the next big things ten years ago. They were ok for a short time. I was also keen on Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer. I think the best comp for Matthews is probably Bailey Ober—mid round college pitcher with great control. Haven’t dug into it too much. 

[DocBauer]

The silver lining...because I want to look on the bright side...to Ryan and Paddack getting injured is the opportunity for these young arms.

I'm excited to see Matthews, but I'm not expecting anything great. In fact, I'm expecting a mediocre at best debut. And that's not me being a downer on the kid, it's just my expectations for a rookie making his MLB debut after a handful if AAA starts. 

ASSUMING Paddack is not traded in the offseason, the Twins rotation is essentially set to BEGIN 2025, including this year's outstanding rookie addition of SWR as a full timer.

Imagine St Paul with Varland...solid and talented but I suspect and kinda hope a full time pen arm...Festa, Matthews, Morris, and probably LH Nowlin in the rotation. Reasonable chance Cory Lewis is ready as well after starting his season late. CJ Culpepper might be just behind. And remember, Lewis and CJ were the hotshots last year AHEAD of Matthews and Morris. I'm still very excited about both now that they're back on the mound and slinging.

Right behind that group is Raya, and...knock on wood...the re-inforced elbow of Prielipp. Plus Kyle Jones, also slowed early in the year, who was drafted higher than most of these guys. Hopefully, Pierson Ohl gets back on track again. Adams and MacLeod both seem to have suddenly turned a corner in July.

Dropping down to Cedar Rapids, Hall and Langenberg have flashed and could be ready for AA in 2025 as well.

All of these arms come from the 2022-2023 draft, IIRC. Of course, not all will turn out. A couple might join some arms not even mentioned that are already in the pen. Nowlin, for example, is a LH I'm very excited about, but he might debut with the Twins next year if he converts to the pen.

Agree with previous comments about years/decades ago when the Twins seemed to have a collection of arms that never made it. The 80's is particularly painful if you followed the system back in those days. But that was also a different time, a different FO, and different coaching/development methods. THIS MANY good young arms...again, some pen arms out there as well...means the odds are you're going to get some guys who make it, and STICK.

I COULD go further in to real pen options for 2025, but not going to. Not the discussion here. But who's arrived, who's getting a shot now, and the AT LEAST the depth of talent at AAA and AA for 2025 is VERY exciting. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I didn’t say they couldn’t just that history would suggest two pitchers with no MLB experience are likely to struggle enough that it might cost us a playoff spot this year. Obviously I hope I’m wrong. 

Fair. I read it wrong

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

THe Twins have numbers in their favor and they have pitchers locked up for a long time too.

Lopez, Ober, and Ryan are locked up for the next 3 seasons so 2025, 2026, and 2027

Woods-Richardson is locked up for the next 5-6 seasons so 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and possibly 2030

Paddack is here for just one more season 2025

We have Festa, Varland, and Mathews as ready to graduate and be major league starters or close to it.  Varland should be moved to the pen soon.  I think he prefers that over staying in AAA as depth that may not get another shot with all of these other starters passing him by.

Next season we will also start to see others join the mix of being ready for a call up too.  Lewis, maybe Preilipp, Morris, Culpepper.  some of these guys could go to the pen too.

If Matthews has success, shows good promise…..Varland to the Pen in ‘25!

I think Varland - Festa - Matthews & the group behind them (pipeline) should be only part of what Falvey is credited for …….Ober has been developed internally ……. trading for SWR - Ryan - Lopez while signing Paddack…..it’s his job, but Falvey is doing it at a high level IMO!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, karcherd said:

No that is on Falvey and how he chose to allocate his resources.  Now do I wish that he was given a bigger budget, yes but to keep blaming the Pohlads is the easy way out.  They have given him larger budgets and he has produced one playoff series win.  Maybe it's not all about money but how the money is being spent.

Gotta be able to plan ahead more than 3-4 months……..I do not recall a big push immediately following being eliminated by Houston, regarding the budget being slashed going forward. Ownership brought the organization back to 2021 salary total in ‘24. If most of the budget is spent when the GM was informed what the budget would be - that is principally on ownership. They can choose to spend whatever…… not the GM’s fault he has no remaining resources based on a screwed up TV deal and a $30M reduction in player spending……..decided upon on the fly.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

3 guys on the team from that list. One on IL and zero pitchers in our org from your list. 

Your comment was the cupboard was bare.. For pitching it was. I did not feel the need yo resist the pitchers but I guess one has to remove all doubt as memory seems to fall after a post. Considering that this is the 8th season of the regime, 3 is about right. Consider how different the 91 team was from 1987 and that was only four years 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What is the fascination with the word pipeline among writers and bloggers? I don’t think Falvey ever said it but somehow it is “Falvey’s Pipeline”. The problem with pipeline is there is no definition and hence a bar that can never be achieved.

He did say in his opening press conference …

and

I think he has been true to those ideals. The pipeline seems to be a creation of podcasters or maybe TD itself.

It is important to build a pitching staff with a foundation of controllable assets. Pitching in free agency is so expensive and lower tier free agents are too often unsuccessful. A foundation is best built by developing through the minors and acquiring pitchers in trade with multiple years of control. I think that has been a success. They did have a need for one more starter this year. Filling that spot with DeSclafani was a predictable failure. On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.

 

Nope, the quote never existed. It is only an allegation because nobody thought to save a videoclip ot a link to the article. One must footnote their words now 

[Otaknam]

20 hours ago, Dman said:

Well said.  The Twins sort of spent their wad on Correa, Lopez and Buxton.  The rest will have to primarily come from the younger players they have developed.  Festa, Matthews, and Morris look close to ready with Prielipp, Culpepper and Lewis not far behind.  They are going to need that depth given how much drafting capital Cleveland puts into arms. Detroit is coming along and Chicago just drafted a potential ace in this years draft. The Twins are going to need to keep up in the arms race.

The Twins also have some good looking young arms in Soto, Bohorquez, Carpenter and Hill.  So they will have future depth as well.  

Arms are fickle things though.  They can give out at any time. They can get stuck at levels and never make it.  A lot has to go right, but there seems to be enough depth that even if just a few make it the Twins rotation should be in good shape now and in the future.

I’m not that confident that Prielipp is that far along in his recovery that we can say he is on the doorstep. Let’s wait until he has a healthy season and some success. But I hope you are right.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

19 hours ago, old nurse said:

Rapsodo did not come out until 2016, Trackman was prohibitively expensive. Whether or not the Twins would have went that way eventually is unknown. I doubt that anyone on Ryan’s staff will say the answer.. Falvey one tome did say it was a barebones operation. I remember looking  at the front office roster listed. Where there was one person there now seems to be 304. Lots of assistant GMa. The tickets sales people with more staff are not doing a great job. 

I know Reusse has said they've spent tens of millions per year on development (to the detriment of the payroll was his angle), but I'd be curious to know something close to what the actual figure is. Not that we'll ever know. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

15 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What is the fascination with the word pipeline among writers and bloggers? I don’t think Falvey ever said it but somehow it is “Falvey’s Pipeline”. The problem with pipeline is there is no definition and hence a bar that can never be achieved.

He did say in his opening press conference …

and

I think he has been true to those ideals. The pipeline seems to be a creation of podcasters or maybe TD itself.

It is important to build a pitching staff with a foundation of controllable assets. Pitching in free agency is so expensive and lower tier free agents are too often unsuccessful. A foundation is best built by developing through the minors and acquiring pitchers in trade with multiple years of control. I think that has been a success. They did have a need for one more starter this year. Filling that spot with DeSclafani was a predictable failure. On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.

 

It comes from what MLB calls their prospect rankings. 

https://www.mlb.com/pipeline

[wabene]

Consternation over the term pipeline makes no sense to me. Falvey was hired to mimick Cleveland who has had an seemingly endless stream of quality pitchers acquired via all available avenues and developed by a well designed pitching development program. It is working. Pipeline is as good as any term to describe this process. But hey, call it whatever you like, lol.

Anyone saying that previous regimes don't deserve criticism is flat out wrong. Terry Ryan did some things well and had a good run in his first tenure. He was out of touch in his second term and left behind an outdated pitching acquisition and development program. Anybody remember when it occurred to Ryan that high velocity was helpful? Hello Jim Hoey, lol. Falvey deserves praise for his revamping of the entire organization.

[Trov]

20 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Just imagine what the pipeline would look like if they hadn’t traded away so many prospects or drafted so many bad position player prospects. 
seriously tho, did guys like Sabato, Prato and Cavaco need to be drafted? 

Not sure which pitching prospects you are referring to that were traded away.  I am guessing Cade Povich and Chase Petty are maybe 2 of them.  We have traded several others or lost in rule 5 draft.  Povich is a top prospect still, but in 8 starts this year was not good, and much worse than much of what we have put out there. Povich AAA has been decent, but so far has failed at majors.  Petty has hit a wall in AA so far for Reds.  He has dropped down their prospect list, and if he put up similar numbers with us would be like our 5th ranked pitching prospect at this point I would guess.  Maybe higher just because of his draft status. 

[Trov]

I know some fans feel the pitching development has failed to produce a clear "ace" but they do not grow on trees.  Sure, if we had won draft lottery last year we could have had Skenes, but the fact that the team has produced several middle of rotation if not solid number 2 guys from late round picks.  The "pipeline" is about having guys every year that could come in, or in some years multiple guys to fill in after injuries or loss of FA, and/or trades.  Now that there appears to be a sustained pipeline, there will be times we trade guys away to reload as well when we have the depth. 

Next we need to develop more pen guys that we can rely on heavy. 

[Fatbat]

27 minutes ago, Trov said:

Not sure which pitching prospects you are referring to that were traded away.  I am guessing Cade Povich and Chase Petty are maybe 2 of them.  We have traded several others or lost in rule 5 draft.  Povich is a top prospect still, but in 8 starts this year was not good, and much worse than much of what we have put out there. Povich AAA has been decent, but so far has failed at majors.  Petty has hit a wall in AA so far for Reds.  He has dropped down their prospect list, and if he put up similar numbers with us would be like our 5th ranked pitching prospect at this point I would guess.  Maybe higher just because of his draft status. 

Andrew Bryzgornia wrote an article published 7/6/2016 in SBNATION about the systematic failures in the Twins Organization.  It has aged well.  People on this site should go back and study how bad things were. Mauer played with a lot of sub average team mates and its sad that he had to. 
 

Experts on this site claim you can’t hit on every prospect or trade which is true but to fail at 99% of every player transaction for year after year is not normal.  A lot of posters on here still think that is normal. 

I do criticize Falvey when its due. His team has made some horrible draft picks and trades but he has also made far more brilliant picks and trades. Some posters on this site are shortsighted when it comes to the health of the whole Twins organization.  Its easily in the top 10 in MLB and getting stronger.  Drafting players is done with a purpose, not just to fill a hole in the minors and hope a kid finds the light. 

The Falvey pipeline and the future drafts/signings and trades will continue to build the talent pool because its all highend. Not 100% but its not the garbage normal that was sold to us decades ago. 
Its taken too many years to get to this point but hey, here we are. Ride the wave after wave of young talent cause its gonna keep coming. 
 

 

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The silver lining...because I want to look on the bright side...to Ryan and Paddack getting injured is the opportunity for these young arms.

I'm excited to see Matthews, but I'm not expecting anything great. In fact, I'm expecting a mediocre at best debut. And that's not me being a downer on the kid, it's just my expectations for a rookie making his MLB debut after a handful if AAA starts. 

ASSUMING Paddack is not traded in the offseason, the Twins rotation is essentially set to BEGIN 2025, including this year's outstanding rookie addition of SWR as a full timer.

Imagine St Paul with Varland...solid and talented but I suspect and kinda hope a full time pen arm...Festa, Matthews, Morris, and probably LH Nowlin in the rotation. Reasonable chance Cory Lewis is ready as well after starting his season late. CJ Culpepper might be just behind. And remember, Lewis and CJ were the hotshots last year AHEAD of Matthews and Morris. I'm still very excited about both now that they're back on the mound and slinging.

Right behind that group is Raya, and...knock on wood...the re-inforced elbow of Prielipp. Plus Kyle Jones, also slowed early in the year, who was drafted higher than most of these guys. Hopefully, Pierson Ohl gets back on track again. Adams and MacLeod both seem to have suddenly turned a corner in July.

Dropping down to Cedar Rapids, Hall and Langenberg have flashed and could be ready for AA in 2025 as well.

All of these arms come from the 2022-2023 draft, IIRC. Of course, not all will turn out. A couple might join some arms not even mentioned that are already in the pen. Nowlin, for example, is a LH I'm very excited about, but he might debut with the Twins next year if he converts to the pen.

Agree with previous comments about years/decades ago when the Twins seemed to have a collection of arms that never made it. The 80's is particularly painful if you followed the system back in those days. But that was also a different time, a different FO, and different coaching/development methods. THIS MANY good young arms...again, some pen arms out there as well...means the odds are you're going to get some guys who make it, and STICK.

I COULD go further in to real pen options for 2025, but not going to. Not the discussion here. But who's arrived, who's getting a shot now, and the AT LEAST the depth of talent at AAA and AA for 2025 is VERY exciting. 

I think Paddack is finished as a starting pitcher.  Maybe he starts a few games if/when he returns this season, but I think his future is relief pitching.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

16 hours ago, karcherd said:

No that is on Falvey and how he chose to allocate his resources.  Now do I wish that he was given a bigger budget, yes but to keep blaming the Pohlads is the easy way out.  They have given him larger budgets and he has produced one playoff series win.  Maybe it's not all about money but how the money is being spent.

Four million buys nothing in starting pitching.  Getting a free agent pitcher who is really good at that price is winning the lottery.  

[Linus]

32 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I think Paddack is finished as a starting pitcher.  Maybe he starts a few games if/when he returns this season, but I think his future is relief pitching.

I think the Twins hope that he can get back and show he’s a capable starter so they can deal him and shed the $7.5 million in salary. He’s really not done that much.

[LambchoP]

It's been very fun and encouraging to see our young pitching prospects rise so quickly and find success. I just hope this short, small sample size success doesn't deter them from looking for pitching upgrades in the office season. As we've seen this year, depth is incredibly important. I think we could use a TOR veteran pitcher to pair with Lopez and help carry the innings load and help coach all our rookie starters. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I know some fans feel the pitching development has failed to produce a clear "ace" but they do not grow on trees.  Sure, if we had won draft lottery last year we could have had Skenes, but the fact that the team has produced several middle of rotation if not solid number 2 guys from late round picks.  The "pipeline" is about having guys every year that could come in, or in some years multiple guys to fill in after injuries or loss of FA, and/or trades.  Now that there appears to be a sustained pipeline, there will be times we trade guys away to reload as well when we have the depth. 

Next we need to develop more pen guys that we can rely on heavy. 

Huh? 

They've had much more success with the bullpen compared to the rotation.