How Much Should the Twins Pay Royce Lewis this Offseason?

[Ted Schwerzler]

From the moment the Minnesota Twins made Royce Lewis the first overall pick of the 2017 Major League Baseball draft, Twins Territory fell in love. It took him a bit to get to Target Field, but since he’s arrived, no one wants him to leave. What will it take to make that happen?

 

Despite having played just over 100 big league games, there are an infinite number of highlight moments for Royce Lewis. He has hit home runs at a prolific pace during the regular season. He has launched grand slams like he will eventually track down Alex Rodriguez. He has shown up in massive postseason moments. It has been a Joe Mauer or Kirby Puckett ascent towards superstardom.

Of course, the caveat for Lewis is that he has been hurt. Playing in just over 100 games through his first three big league seasons, different ailments have cost him significant time. Fluke ACL injuries have been culprits, but so too have soft tissue maladies. The only thing that has stopped Lewis from performing thus far has been his body itself.

That’s not new for the Minnesota Twins. Byron Buxton falls in a similar situation, and the franchise appropriately paid the man. Garnering a seven-year deal worth $100 million, both sides took on a certain amount of risk. The franchise is hoping that he stays healthy and outperforms the deal. The player is seeking to earn individual accolades that bump his pay to where health may have allowed it to be.

Would Scott Boras allow for something similar to take place with Lewis?

Boras is among the most influential agents in Major League Baseball. Despite representing players, his reach permeates into the league itself. He is notable for getting his players the top dollar no matter what that takes, and Lewis is among his most high-profile pre-arbitration clients.

That said, Boras has also taken some sizable losses of late. It is because of deals falling apart that Carlos Correa is with the Minnesota Twins at all. Blake Snell and Matt Chapman both sat on the open market forever this past offseason. Of course established veterans are a different beast altogether, but Lewis is going to hit arbitration with, at most, 300 big league games under his belt.

What that means is Lewis will be scrutinized through an arbitration system that awards longevity of performance. It doesn’t matter that the Twins youngster has been incredible when he has played, given how sporadically he has played. There is also the possibility of another injury that keeps him further away from any expected payday.

Lewis will again make the league minimum next year, and although he got a $6.725 million bonus, it’s this first contract that would represent life-changing money. A full year younger, with better performance, and a clean bill of health, Bobby Witt Jr. landed a seven-year deal worth nearly $150 million this offseason. Lewis won’t see that sort of money, but the parameters for an extension are there.

It stands to reason that Minnesota would be against going ten years on a player with a significant injury history. The questions as to how his body ages could be limitless. A six-year deal with options may be the sweet spot. That would take Lewis through his age-31 season. Options could be tacked on to reward health and production on the back end, and it’s still possible he is paid handsomely on the open market should he choose to take his talents elsewhere at that time.

Boras would be wise to argue for $20 million per season, but $120 million is probably too rich in the short term for Minnesota ownership. The Twins could counter at $100 million, but a $16.6 million AAV might not be enough to get it done. Minnesota would presumably need to backload the deal rather than adding to a 2025 payroll expected to decline. Still though, this offseason may be the last chance for the front office to get something hammered out that doesn’t break the bank.

If Lewis is healthy next season, then he will command a premium during his first year of arbitration. From there, he’ll quickly price himself out of anything the Twins would have initially been able to do. Getting Boras on board is part of the equation. Getting ownership on board is another beast altogether. Similar to what was done for Mauer, Buxton, and Correa, it makes sense for Minnesota to lock in their stars, and Lewis joining that group would be great to see.

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[NYCTK]

No big multiyear contract for someone that can't stay healthy. Give him the fair arbitration contract. I guess that won't be more than $6 Million? 

[Mike Sixel]

No way I sign this guy to a long term deal until he had one healthy season. A rich club could take this chance, but not this club..

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No way I sign this guy to a long term deal until he had one healthy season. A rich club could take this chance, but not this club..

Long-term 5 years I'm fine with. Teams who lock up arbitration eligible players usually end up with a tradeable asset at the end of the contract (see Polanco). The Twins would be stupid to let all of their players go through arbitration and walk as free agents when they could flip the expensive but still below market rate seasons for prospects instead.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Long-term 5 years I'm fine with. Teams who lock up arbitration eligible players usually end up with a tradeable asset at the end of the contract (see Polanco). The Twins would be stupid to let all of their players go through arbitration and walk as free agents when they could flip the expensive but still below market rate seasons for prospects instead.

He hasn't played even half a year in three years. Signing him is a huge risk for a team on a tight budget, which they are with Lopez, CC, and Buxton all signed. Not to mention Ryan and Ober...

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Long-term 5 years I'm fine with. Teams who lock up arbitration eligible players usually end up with a tradeable asset at the end of the contract (see Polanco). The Twins would be stupid to let all of their players go through arbitration and walk as free agents when they could flip the expensive but still below market rate seasons for prospects instead.

The thing is, a long term contract isn't going to really give him an injury discount. He'll want to get paid based on his potential. 6 yrs 100 Million is probably about the right offer, and I don't feel at all comfortable offering that to a player with less than 500 PAs at the age of 25 because he can't stay on the field. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Signing him is a huge risk for a team on a tight budget

Not signing him is also a huge risk for a team on a tight budget.

[Dman]

Injury prone player with knee and Hamstring issues along with core muscles injuries.  No thanks on a long term deal for me.  I was a huge supporter of the Buxton deal the Twins got done, but given how much time he has missed and is only getting older I don't know if I'd have them do that deal again.  He has been healthy this year, but I never expected him to lose so much time that early into his deal.

Lewis is a dice roll the smaller market Twins just can't afford to not work out.  He might have a lot left in the tank and have a 20 year career.  His knee's or hamstrings might stop him from performing tomorrow. Even though I absolutely love the player It's too much risk to take on IMO. 

[tony&rodney]

What does the budget say? 

The Twins will likely offer $2.5-3.0M in arb for Lewis. Jeffers received just under $2.5M for this year in arb 1. I think arb works on numbers and not per game or perceived talent. In any event, Lewis is bound to Minnesota for four years after this year if BaseballProspectus is correct. The Twins will go year to year with Royce simply because it is the prudent decision. 

In a corollary look, many people on Twins Daily (not me) have commented that the Buxton signing was a mistake because Byron has had trouble playing a significant number of games. Lewis may fall in a similar talent range with thoughts of great production but it seems unlikely that a mid market team would gamble on two guys at the same time. Having said that, it isn't my money so go ahead and give him a big contract along with everyone else. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Not signing him is also a huge risk for a team on a tight budget.

This.

You probably get one or two chances to do this before it becomes too late.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

You probably get one or two chances to do this before it becomes too late.

Chance #1 was last off-season. Chance #2 is this off-season. If he puts up a full healthy season in 2025 he will probably not sign a team friendly extension, and they will have to look at trading him during the 2026 offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

This.

You probably get one or two chances to do this before it becomes too late.

You're suggesting 3/4 of the payroll be in four players? Kepler's pay is already eaten by raises for existing players. How do you plan to pay Lewis, Ober, and Ryan? And Jeffers? And Jax and Duran? And add any players in free agency in that timeframe?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Long-term 5 years I'm fine with. Teams who lock up arbitration eligible players usually end up with a tradeable asset at the end of the contract (see Polanco). The Twins would be stupid to let all of their players go through arbitration and walk as free agents when they could flip the expensive but still below market rate seasons for prospects instead.

Why would Lewis agree to delay hitting FA to play for a below market rate? He's essentially ****ed either way in regard to salary until 2029. The Twins can spin the arb buyout as throwing him a bone, but the buyout would have to be sizable to entice Lewis to give up a prime season and push back FA. I'd imagine Lewis is looking at the contracts Witt Jr. or Wander Franco signed and starting there. Similar to all the hypothetical trades tossed around on this site, if you're comfortable doing it, it likely isn't enough. 

If I'm the Twins, I'm in no hurry to throw $$ at a guy that hasn't been available for massive chunks of the last 3 years. 

A long term extension doesn't really make sense for either side right now. 

[bean5302]

Royce is my favorite Twins player. Giving him a long term contract is an absolute no-go from me. He has to prove he can remain healthy. As a Super 2, Royce will get 4 years of arbitration. How his year 1 arbitration value looks is something where I have absolutely no idea what to expect.

Arb values generally rely on traditional metrics. AVG/SLG/HR that kind of stuff. Lewis' numbers are great, but he barely plays. Somebody above posted $6MM. That seems excessive to me given how little playing time Lewis has. $6MM in Arb 1 is a huge number.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Why would Lewis agree to delay hitting FA to play for a below market rate?

Because he's injured all the time and it would be hard to turn down $80M guaranteed.

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because he's injured all the time and it would be hard to turn down $80M guaranteed.

Just going through the arb process he's going to make a decent chunk of that $80M. Vlad Jr. is making $20M in his penultimate arb season following a good but unspectacular 2023. Of course Lewis needs to be available more often, but why would he not bet on himself being able to do that, especially if buying out his arb years + FA doesn't provide anything other than catastrophic injury insurance?

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Royce is my favorite Twins player. Giving him a long term contract is an absolute no-go from me. He has to prove he can remain healthy. As a Super 2, Royce will get 4 years of arbitration. How his year 1 arbitration value looks is something where I have absolutely no idea what to expect.

Arb values generally rely on traditional metrics. AVG/SLG/HR that kind of stuff. Lewis' numbers are great, but he barely plays. Somebody above posted $6MM. That seems excessive to me given how little playing time Lewis has. $6MM in Arb 1 is a huge number.

Fair. That was me. I know Pete Alonso got a (record?) 7.5M in Arb1 recently, but he obviously has had way better a career leading into. 

4.5 maybe if he's able to remain healthy for the rest of the year. 3 if he kind fades and his rate numbers looks good instead of great. IDK!

[chpettit19]

I just don't see anyway they find a middle ground on Lewis this offseason. He just cracked 100 games played in what should be his 4th season. He's barely averaging 25 games a year! The discount the Twins would need to demand based on those numbers would be way below what Lewis should be willing to take. 

I'm all for extending young guys before they hit arbitration to eat up a couple FA years at a discount. This just isn't a situation that lends itself to such a play. There's no realistic middle ground here. Buxton played 306 games his first 4 years. Lewis is going to be at 154 if he plays every game the rest of this season. You can't pay Lewis until he plays 100 games in a season. He's never even played 60.

And I've been driving the "Lewis is a star" bus since 2019. You simply can't pay him yet.

[jmlease1]

It's going to be a challenge. The incentive for Lewis to sign a long-term deal is to lock in guaranteed money against the risk of injury, insuring that he gets generational wealth even if he has another catastrophic injury. A lot of players would do that deal, especially knowing that even if they bet wrong and stay healthy and productive the whole time, there's almost certainly another big deal available.

But Royce Lewis has as much confidence and faith in himself as any player I've ever seen. Might be harder for him to not bet on himself, you know?

That said, he's also the sort of player that isn't going to want to bounce around to different clubs and feel like a mercenary. I think he'd rather be a Twins legend. Still doesn't mean he's going to take significant discounts, though.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'd be very surprised if a deal gets done.  The Twins have essentially no payroll space until Lopez's contract runs out after 2027 (they owe $75M to Correa/Buxton/Lopez annually for the next 3 years).  Barring new revenue windfalls, or a new ownership group that is willing to risk the possibility of deficit spending, the Twins will not be able to spend to keep the current core together, much less hand out salaries well in excess of what a player could get through arbitration.

The only way the Twins can possibly extend Lewis this offseason is if they decide to bet on their upcoming prospects, and unload some combination of Ryan/Ober/Jeffers/Duran/Jax.  It's possible that SWR/Festa/Matthews/Camargo/Varland can do an adequate job of replacing that, along with a potential robust return in near-MLB talent from trading those 5 players.

That said, I think it's more likely the Twins are about to emulate the Rays for awhile--attempting to outfit their roster with a constant churn of prospects who become solid regulars, if not stars, who are then traded with 1-3 years of team control left for more prospects; at least until the Big 3 contracts have lapsed, and that money can be redistributed.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Fair. That was me. I know Pete Alonso got a (record?) 7.5M in Arb1 recently, but he obviously has had way better a career leading into. 

4.5 maybe if he's able to remain healthy for the rest of the year. 3 if he kind fades and his rate numbers looks good instead of great. IDK!

Arbitration generally looks at the previous 2 years from my understanding. I really have absolutely no idea how to quantify Lewis' value. Counting stats are known to be the most valuable, but traditional counting stats often reflect themselves in WAR pretty directly. Lewis doesn't play a super premium defensive position, and not a lot of his value comes from his defense so it feels like this is probably fairly good for predictions, though the data starts from almost 10 years ago, and there has been some slight (not as much as you'd think) inflation.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-super-two-compensation-update/

Say Lewis ends up with 3 WAR this year. I'd expect a $4MM super 2 value in Arb 1. I'm not sure how things will pan out, but the Twins are likely to take an aggressive stance with Lewis given their tight payroll and the impact a starting arbitration salary has on the future of a player. If they can drop his Arb1 salary by $1MM, it will impact his future salaries much more.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

This.

You probably get one or two chances to do this before it becomes too late.

Lewis is once in a lifetime talent. Besides all the tangible assets he presents there's a lot of intangible ones that are a real game changer. IMO spending big money on big FAs is throwing money away at a crap shoot. Investing in a inhouse asset is a much better option.

If properly managed his ACL problems should be behind him, His soft-tissue vulnerability should run its course & shouldn't be an issue. Boris's shine has soured with his clients. With poor Lewis's injury history, his desire to stay with the Twins & doubt on Boris's strategy, this could be the last & best chance to keep Lewis in the Twins' future. Situations in recent history have helped to sign & extend game changers Buxton & Correa. Here is our opportunity to extend Lewis, if we don't make at least a reasonable offer (whatever that is) we'll live to regret it.

[USAFChief]

Get it done, Falvey.

6/$90

[Gamblerssoftball]

I think it's a near lock that the Twins will not try to sign him to an extension after this season. And, I doubt that Lewis is looking to do so, either. The situation will be much more relevant 14 months from now, which will likely be the right time for this to occur. If he plays the majority of the games between now and then with star like prowess, it won't be cheap. But a lot of questions will have been answered, also. At least, that seems like the most logical scenario to me. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

If properly managed his ACL problems should be behind him, His soft-tissue vulnerability should run its course & shouldn't be an issue. Boris's shine has soured with his clients. With poor Lewis's injury history, his desire to stay with the Twins & doubt on Boris's strategy, this could be the last & best chance to keep Lewis in the Twins' future. Situations in recent history have helped to sign & extend game changers Buxton & Correa. Here is our opportunity to extend Lewis, if we don't make at least a reasonable offer (whatever that is) we'll live to regret it.

The Dr. has spoken.

[Schmoeman5]

The earlier article was about extending Castro. Now sign Lewis for 5 or 6 years in addition to those already signed. With the payroll crunch, who's going to fill the roster? Falvey will resign. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Say Lewis ends up with 3 WAR this year. I'd expect a $4MM super 2 value in Arb 1.

I'm guessing $3M, plus or minus .5M. Tops. Lewis would have to put up huge numbers in the next seven weeks to put up a case for more money. Jeffers got $2.45M with better numbers. 

Hopefully Lewis is the player of the week every week until the season ends and he gets more money.

[Brandon27]

Don't got money to use didn't really doing anything to upgrade the rotation in offseason and one little trade at deadline 

[Whitey333]

Yes signing free agents to big contracts can be a crapshoot.  So too can be signing oft injured players to long term deals.  I like Lewis but I would not sign him to aalong term deal until he plays regularly and produces.  With payroll likely to be cut again next year I just don't see the Twins doing that.  

[Blyleven2011]

Baseball is a business  , to keep the fans  filling the seats they have to keep the players fans want to see playing ....

They found away to keep puckett and threw money at Mauer  , they signed Correa in free agency , Donaldson to  , they got creative with Buxton  ...

The above mentioned players  were all star players , ( except maybe Donaldson , at least for the twins )  ...

Lewis has star potential  and is a game changer   , you don't keep Lewis as a twins player , you won't keep the devoted fans coming to the stadium  ...

Options ;;;;

Get creative and sign him to an incentive ladened contract  ...

Or second option  , get an owner that loves baseball and wants to win the whole shooting match,  by spending money to win  ( its called keeping up with the Jonies)