How Much Should the Twins Pay Royce Lewis this Offseason?

[Rufus]

Let's worry about this type of stuff in December. Right now Lewis and the Twins should be focusing on baseball and winning.

[Seth Stohs]

Not really any comparison to Buxton's contract at the point it was signed. Buxton was one year from free agency. Lewis will be four years from free agency. 

What would he make in arbitration if he stays healthy and produces?
2025: $5M, 2026: $10M, 2027: $18M, 2028: $25M... (4 years, $58M)  

What would he get going year to year if he maintains current health and production?
2025: $3M, 2026: $6M, 2027: $10M, 2028: $12 M (4 years, $31M)

Lewis/Boras would say No to the latter. There is no reason for the Twins to take on all the risk of the top one. 

I'd argue that it'd be right around that same, $15 million mark. So here is where I would want it to be (And obviously they can shift the money around to make it make sense).

Signing Bonus: $10M,  2025: $3.5M, 2026: $7.5M, 2027: $12M, 2028: $13M, 2029: $17M, 2030: $16M, 2031: $15M, 2032: $15M, 2033: $14M, 2034: $14M. 

Counting the Signing Bonus, Lewis would be at 4 years and $36 million over his arbitration years. It's a bit on the lower end of the year-to-year numbers above, but it'd be giving up some there to have generational wealth guaranteed, PLUS much more with incentives. 

Overall, it's a 10 year, $137 million contract. I would start the "Buxton Bonuses" starting in 2027... 

Buxton Bonuses: 

• performance bonuses: $500,000 each for 502, 533, 567, 600, 625 plate appearances
• award bonuses: $8M for AL MVP ($7M for second place in vote, $6M for third place, $5M for fourth place, $4M for fifth place, $3M for sixth-10th place)

So, if he had 625 plate appearances and won MVP, he  could make an additional $10.5 million in any season. 

If they want to add three more years on at the end at $10M per year, I'd be fine with that. That'd make it 13 years and $167 guaranteed. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Rufus said:

Let's worry about this type of stuff in December. Right now Lewis and the Twins should be focusing on baseball and winning.

I'm not sure how fans talking about this effects the team?

[mnfireman]

If he gets healthy and has a couple of big seasons the team could be in trouble, or have to trade him.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-arbitration-yankees-juan-soto-breaks-shohei-ohtanis-mark-with-2024-deal-plus-more-notable-contracts/

[Fatbat]

Pay him all the $$$. The Pohlads can afford it.  He will get over the injury bug a boo.  7 years $150M with some options and incentives. 

[RpR]

Lewis is a poor fielder with an unproven bat, nothing to get excited about.