Brewers 8, Twins 7: Missed Opportunities, Homers Lead to Brewers Sweep

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins and Brewers always play each other tough, and coming off a back-and-forth 12-inning game Saturday, Sunday's game did not disappoint, with several lead changes and dramatic home runs.

In the end it was a late home run off the bat of journeyman catcher Eric Haase that proved the difference as the Brewers completed the two-game sweep.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (88 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 73.9%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (11), Trevor Larnach (10)
Bottom 3 WPA: Caleb Thielbar (-.311), Ryan (-.160), Manuel Margot (-.147)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins began the second half of the season with a disheartening extra-inning loss to the Brewers, getting thoroughly out-executed despite some late-inning heroics from Carlos Santana and Diego Castillo.

After a brief rain delay, the Brewers turned to recent Twins punching bag Aaron Civale opposing Joe Ryan. Ryan cruised early as he sought to put his history of poor second halves behind him, hitting 95 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs and strikeouts with his sweeper along the way.

Civale immediately gave up a ringing double to Willi Castro, but the Twins leadoff hitter got greedy and was thrown out trying to stretch for a triple. That inning ended quietly from there, but the second inning was anything but, despite zero hits being recorded. Max Kepler and Santana led off the frame with walks, and with two outs Edouard Julien drew another walk on a 3-2 pitch that appeared to clip the zone. Civale then induced a soft liner up the middle from Christian Vazquez, but stud fielder Bryce Turang inexplicably tried to get Julien at second instead of throwing to first to retire the slow-footed Vazquez. The feed was wide, and two runners scored on the play.

Ryan continued to roll along, but perhaps forgot that Brewers catcher Eric Haase is a notorious Twins killer, as he obliterated a middle-middle sweeper from Ryan to cut the lead in half. 

Byron Buxton brought the lead back to two in the third. After being fooled by a breaking ball away, Civale threw a backup slider that stayed inside and Buxton demolished it 411 feet. That was an extra good sign as it was  Buxton's first hit since he had missed a few games with an elbow injury.

Ryan ran into trouble in the fifth. After a Rhys Hoskins bloop single, Garret Mitchell laid down a perfect bunt with one out, bringing up wunderkind Jackson Chourio. The 20 year-old Chourio didn't chase on a couple of close pitches and eventually got a 2-2 fastball thigh high that he roped into the left center gap, scoring two.

Haase wasn't done, either, as he tapped a ground ball up the middle that ticked off Castro's glove into center field to score Chourio and give the Brewers the lead.

That would not hold, as following a leadoff walk to Castro, the never streaking (never hot, never cold, just .740 OPS) Trevor Larnach jumped all over a hanging curveball to take the lead back.

Ryan could have conceivably gone out to start the seventh, but with a one-run lead the Twins opted to turn to Jorge Alcala. The problem was that Chourio led off the inning, and he jumped on a 1-0 fastball and pummeled it 443 feet to tie the game, Alcala's first allowed this year.

After the Twins threatened but did not score in the seventh, Hoskins made Griffin Jax pay for a hittable fastball ahead 0-2 and crushed it for a two-run home run to give the Brewers a 7-5 lead.

The Twins had a golden opportunity to claw back in the eighth. Facing hard-throwing reliever Elvis Peguero, Brooks Lee led off with a single, Matt Wallner singled, and Julien drew a walk. But Manuel Margot flew out while Castro and Jeffers struck out to extinguish the threat.

The Good:

• Buxton is going to need to carry this offense with Miranda, Correa and Lewis out, and it looks like he is up to the challenge.
• Ryan pitched well, but made two key mistakes to Haase and Chourio that tarnished his final pitching line.

The Bad:

• Austin Martin has been piling up strikeouts in both games post All-Star break, struggling to make contact on breaking balls away.
• There is a reason why Detroit stopped playing Castro at shortstop. He is serviceable there, but he doesn't transfer the ball from his glove to his throwing arm particularly quickly, leading to a couple of Brewers hits in the series. He also could have smothered Haase's hit in the fifth and prevented a run. He did reach base four times, however.
• Every Twins reliever gave up a home run.

What’s Next: Bailey Ober (8-5, 4.14 ERA) goes against Phillies All-Star left-hander Ranger Suarez (10-4, 2.76 ERA) as the Twins host the Phillies for a three game set starting Monday. Philadelphia boasts the best record in baseball, with a dominant rotation and star-studded lineup that has gotten healthier lately, welcoming back Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto in the past few weeks.

Postgame Interviews:

(Coming Soon)

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Sands	0	0	0	10	0	10
Jax	0	0	0	14	15	29
Durán	0	0	0	12	0	12
Staumont	0	0	0	20	0	20
Alcalá	0	0	0	17	16	33
Henriquez	0	0	0	0	0	0
Thielbar	0	0	0	0	16	16
Okert	0	0	0	11	0	11

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[BH67]

I used to get upset about losing with a single play determining victory or defeat. No longer, even if it meant two Twins losses this weekend.

It speaks everything to the risk of one event determining a win or loss where a team lacks three essential bats, its starting pitcher throws an OOTI (“One of Those Innings,” usually applicable to Lopez) and a tired bullpen from the previous night is used again in the clutch.

I delight that these Twins continue to fight to the end. They need the depth and health to ensure that such efforts lead to better than 50 percent probability of victory in the late innings.
 

[USAFChief]

We need an MLB manager.

[Doctor Gast]

We need more clutch-hitting, Single HRs don't do it. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are minus their best player, Carlos Correa. His absence has a trickle effect, particularly on the defense.

Right now the Twins are 10 games above .500 and well ahead of preseason projections. They also have a decent schedule in August. The next three games are important as Philly likes to club the ball.

[Whitey333]

I guess it's nice to try and stay positive but it isn't easy.  Yes the Twins miss Correa in particular.  Lewis is streaky great when he plays but he's missed a ton of games again this year.  The jury is still out on Miranda but it's looking good.  My point is these two games with Brewers showed some pretty poor and at times undisciplined play by our Twins.  The bullpen cost us these past two games not so much missing those hitters.  Saying they were tired is ridiculous.  I do realize they only just had a 5 day break.  Come on get real.  Sending Margot up to pinch hit in the 8th inning with the bases loaded and no outs is a direct reflection on Roccos poor managing.  Yes that same Margot that is now 0 for 23 pinch hitting.  We keep sending him out there.  He keeps failing, like Rocco.  I imagine one of these times it may work.  But he's been bad at it for too long.  Brewers walked 7 Twins but we didn't take advantage.  Our pitchers gave up most of the damage to the number 8 and 9 hitters in their lineup.  The only thing good is Cleveland keeps losing.  Thank you Guardians.  But we could have been only 3 games out this weekend instead of 5.  The Twins are now 22-31 against teams with winning records.

[hitterscount]

Rocco  completely out coached by first year coach Pat Murphy. Should have taken both games and terrible decisions yet again cost the team both. This team is better than their record… the coach is holding them back.

[Hubie29]

Rocco Gottago

[thelanges5]

Brock Stewart 4 games at AAA  

We need him back 

G	W-L	ERA	IP	SO	WHIP
4	0-0	2.25	4.0	8	1.00

[Doctor Gast]

Baldelli pinch-hitting Margot, IMO is him just obeying orders sent down. To put Margot in every time there is a LHP.

[Parfigliano]

Pathetic with RISP.  Poor D.  Poor bullpen.  Poor base running.  Same dumb managerial decisions.  Lots of blame to go around.

 

[Alex Wilde]

How about we go one game without calling for Rocco’s head as if he’s the owner, FO, manager, and best player all in one!

Ownership cut payroll. Hence the lack of depth in the bullpen.

Three best hitters injured. Hence the lack of clutch hits.

Blame Rocco all you want but he didn’t go 1-12 with RISP and he didn’t serve up meatballs all game from the mound.
 

 

 

[thelanges5]

I don’t have the stats to prove it but it sure seems like we get beat by the opponents bottom of the lineup. 

[DJL44]

I do enjoy watching them play the Brewers. Both teams are entertaining.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I do enjoy watching them play the Brewers. Both teams are entertaining.

I would love to see them in the same division again, one day. We have a natural rivalry with Wisconsin based teams. 

[tony&rodney]

The focus on the manager is bordering on desperate. The players make the plays, whether it is pitching, fielding, or hitting. I might prefer a bunt, a steal, or a hit and run once in a while. Falvey does not. So I'm left with the other results. The Dodgers and other good teams also follow a similar script. This may bother me  some but it isn't out of the ordinary and Baldelli isn't the devil. 

It is true that a healthy Lewis and Miranda may help the team, but if we look at the number of games played one should realize that it makes more sense to count on Miranda. Anything provided by Lewis will be a bonus, greatly appreciated but also unexpected.

The team received huge shots from Buxton and Larnach today along with decent contributions from Santana, Julien, and Vazquez. Castro continues to be the team MVP. Kepler and Jeffers need to get with it and step forward. Wallner, Martin, and Lee looked inexperienced, which they are. Maybe next year but hopefully in August for these three. Any experience they get will certainly help them. They should improve.

The next three games will test our pitching and give direction to any trade deadline moves. 

The series with Milwaukee was exciting despite the disappointment. Also 38,000 fans for two games is a plus. 

[wabene]

Losing is hard. 

 

It'll be ok

[karcherd]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The focus on the manager is bordering on desperate. The players make the plays, whether it is pitching, fielding, or hitting. I might prefer a bunt, a steal, or a hit and run once in a while. Falvey does not. So I'm left with the other results. The Dodgers and other good teams also follow a similar script. This may bother me  some but it isn't out of the ordinary and Baldelli isn't the devil. 

It is true that a healthy Lewis and Miranda may help the team, but if we look at the number of games played one should realize that it makes more sense to count on Miranda. Anything provided by Lewis will be a bonus, greatly appreciated but also unexpected.

The team received huge shots from Buxton and Larnach today along with decent contributions from Santana, Julien, and Vazquez. Castro continues to be the team MVP. Kepler and Jeffers need to get with it and step forward. Wallner, Martin, and Lee looked inexperienced, which they are. Maybe next year but hopefully in August for these three. Any experience they get will certainly help them. They should improve.

The next three games will test our pitching and give direction to any trade deadline moves. 

The series with Milwaukee was exciting despite the disappointment. Also 38,000 fans for two games is a plus. 

I am not sure what game you were watching.  Santana had one good AB, Castro our supposed MVP set the tone by getting thrown out at third in the first inning and missed two plays in the field.  And Wallner had a pinch hit single, I am not sure what he did wrong today.  Hoping for anything from Kepler is wishful thinking, he has had two and a half months of solid play since 2019 and one good mini streak this year when he came off the IL.  The manager's job is to put the players in a position to succeed, so let's keep pinch hitting Margot because he is so successful at it.  Castro is not a SS and should not be played there on a regular basis.  Good teams have a core of 5 to 7 players that play at the same position and bat the same spot in the lineup.  We have a team of role players and that is why we see the mistakes we do and the sloppy play.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Good teams have a core of 5 to 7 players

Who are those 5-7 core players who you would put into the lineup today and where? 

[karcherd]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

Who are those 5-7 core players who you would put into the lineup today and where? 

This has nothing to do with the injuries.  They don't have this when fully healthy.  When you have a core, you slide someone in for an injury instead of playing mad scientist every day.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, karcherd said:

This has nothing to do with the injuries.  They don't have this when fully healthy.  When you have a core, you slide someone in for an injury instead of playing mad scientist every day.

Wait. Didn't the Twins open the season with Buxton-CF, Jeffers-C, Lewis-3B, Correa-SS, Santana-1B, and Kepler-RF as regulars? That seems like 5-7 core players. Castro was already seen as a regular but used wherever needed. 

When players are out with injuries, teams do whatever works which often is difficult. The Dodgers had to move Betts to the infield due to some irregular performances and now with Betts out they have to shuffle players around. This has always been a part of baseball. Platooning has been effective for many successful teams. 

Hopefully, the Twins begin August with Correa, Lewis, and Miranda back in the everyday lineup, healthy and productive. Until then, the team will need to hustle a little bit.

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Alex Wilde said:

How about we go one game without calling for Rocco’s head as if he’s the owner, FO, manager, and best player all in one!

I think most of us only call for his head over his job performance as manager. 

[mikelink45]

Can't the bench coach - whoever he is - share Margot's pinch hitting stats?  I am overwhelmed.

[Alex Wilde]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think most of us only call for his head over his job performance as manager. 

Three first place finishes in the division and an overall record of .533 isn’t good enough for you? With a team this year that is vastly outperforming last years team? Give me a break

[Whitey333]

And the excuses for the Twins poor play just keep coming.  They are 22-31 against teams with winning records.  That won't get you very far.  They blame injuries, bad umpiring, and just plain bad luck when things don't go their way.  Would it be any better if we had a major league manager?

[Peter]

These 2 losses couldn’t have come at worse time. Especially today!!! It’s crushing devastating loss. With Philadelphia upcoming it’s going to be 0-5 homestand. We need Correa/miranda/lewis back asap!!! This is happening way too much in losing by 3-5 runs only to lose by one run. That needs to stop like right now!!! The 2 home run game from buxton means nothing especially if we continue to lose. What good is late inning comeback only to lose??  As I’ve said before NO MORE one run games. I’m done with it! It’s to nerve wracking and way to stressful!!! With full healthy team we have the best team in all of baseball!!! It would be wasted season if we don’t win division or make playoffs!!!

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, Peter said:

These 2 losses couldn’t have come at worse time. Especially today!!! It’s crushing devastating loss. With Philadelphia upcoming it’s going to be 0-5 homestand. We need Correa/miranda/lewis back asap!!! This is happening way too much in losing by 3-5 runs only to lose by one run. That needs to stop like right now!!! The 2 home run game from buxton means nothing especially if we continue to lose. What good is late inning comeback only to lose??  As I’ve said before NO MORE one run games. I’m done with it! It’s to nerve wracking and way to stressful!!! With full healthy team we have the best team in all of baseball!!! It would be wasted season if we don’t win division or make playoffs!!!

I like the Twins.  When fully healthy we most definitely do not have the best team in all of baseball!!!

[Peter]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I like the Twins.  When fully healthy we most definitely do not have the best team in all of baseball!!!

I soooo want them to over take Cleveland win division or worse case make playoffs!!! It would be a shame if twins didn’t do either. Also please please please have the big city national media stay away from the twins!!! They always disrespect our team and hate them. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

How about we go one game without calling for Rocco’s head as if he’s the owner, FO, manager, and best player all in one!

Ownership cut payroll. Hence the lack of depth in the bullpen.

Three best hitters injured. Hence the lack of clutch hits.

Blame Rocco all you want but he didn’t go 1-12 with RISP and he didn’t serve up meatballs all game from the mound.
 

 

 

The Twins literally came into the season with what many expected would compete for the best bullpen in baseball. I don't know what ownership increasing the payroll could have legitimately done to make the Twins' bullpen look better. I get it. Rah rah, only $130MM cheap Pohlad's!!!! Stupid owners! At least attempt to make a valid point when you're going off on ownership.

[bean5302]

Ryan has been consistently having "bad luck" over his recent starts. I'm not sure if he's just morphing into his traditional 2nd half Joe Ryan form or if he's copying Pablo Lopez's approach of pitching worse than the numbers say he should be.

6/25 - 6.0 IP, 4 R
6/30 - 5.2 IP, 2 R
7/6 - 5.2 IP, 3 R
7/12 - 5.1 IP, 5 R
7/21 - 6.0 IP 4 R

Last 5 starts - 5.65 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.16 xFIP