It's Very Early, But Walker Jenkins is Showing Very Well By Advanced Metrics

[Jamie Cameron]

In his first full season as a professional, the Twins' top prospect's surface-level numbers look fairly pedestrian. Under the hood, though, where the batted-ball and pitch-by-pitch data sit, it's a different story.

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK

Walker Jenkins’s 2024 season has been full of interruptions. A hamstring strain sustained in his first game of the season sidelined him for six weeks, after just one at-bat. Even the Florida weather hasn’t cooperated. Jenkins has been back and playing since early June, though, so it’s time to dig into his 2024 data. What is he doing well? What’s left to work on? Let’s take a peek.

Jenkins came roaring out of the blocks in 2023, making short work of the Florida Complex League and earning an end-of-season stint in the Florida State League. He continued to impress, hitting .392/.446/.608 in a tiny 12-game sample there. Jenkins hit everything in that short debut, posting an 82% contact rate and an absurd 9.5% in-zone whiff rate. He struck out just 10.7% of the time, but only walked 7.2% of the time. It was plenty to whet the appetites of Twins fans heading into 2024.

Despite the setbacks, he's done everything in his power this year to deliver on that tantalizing promise. His counting stats look fairly ordinary. In 26 games, he’s hit .260/.385/.365, with 2 home runs. That line might be uninspiring, but there’s a lot going on under the hood that suggests Jenkins is on his way to becoming an elite professional hitter.

We’ll start with his approach. I mentioned Jenkins’s excellent bat-to-ball skills in reviewing his 2023 debut. It was also noteworthy that he didn’t walk much, but then, you don’t need to walk much when you can hit everything. This year, his frequency of free passes has ballooned from 7.2% to 17.1% (around 6% above average for the level). His strikeout rate has remained excellent, at 12.8% (around 12% better than average for the level). Jenkins is patient in his approach. He swings slightly less than his peers overall, but slightly more within the zone. His chase rate (21.6%) is more than five percentage points better than the league average. This is indicative of a hitter who combines a great eye for the strike zone with great swing decisions, going into his at-bats with a clear plan of attack.

What of Jenkins’s bat-to-ball skills? They’re still exceptional. Jenkins has improved on his contact rate from his short 2023 debut, up to 86%. That’s 16% above average for the level, folks. Within the zone, specifically, he's less than half as likely to whiff when he swings (9.7%) than the average FSL batter (20.8%). The closest MLB comparison to Jenkins’ combination of bat-to-ball skills, in-zone contact, and chase rate? Mookie Betts.

After such an unfair comparison, let’s dial it back and examine how this stacks up against other hitters at the same rung on the ladder of pro baseball. Jenkins’s contact skills rank fourth in Low-A ball, among players with at least 50 plate appearances). The only other prospect of note on his level is Tigers standout infielder Kevin McGonigle. Jenkins can get his bat to anything. Additionally, he’s now operating with an uncommon level of patience that will serve him well as he progresses through the middle and upper levels of minor-league ball.

Many of Jenkins’s pre-draft scouting reports made note of his potential for plus hitting ability and plus power. The power hasn’t shown up much. Is that a cause for concern? In short, no. It’s true that there’s been little in the way of home-run power or extra-base hits for Jenkins in 2024, but the underlying markers suggest more power is on the way.

Jenkins’s 90th-percentile exit velocity on the season is 101.7 mph, right around average for the level (102.1 mph). He’ll grow into more of that. Players typically add more than 2 mph to their 90th-percentile exit velocity between the ages of 19 and 21. Additionally, Jenkins is hitting the ball 95 mph or harder 35.4% of the time, slightly better than the 32.1% league average, and hitting the ball between 10-30 degrees 29.3% of the time (28.2% league average). In other words, he’s hitting the ball hard consistently, on trajectories that will consistently lead to extra-base impact, all at a very early age. 

It’s also worth noting how complete a hitter Jenkins appears to be early in 2024. He doesn’t have stark splits by handedness, and seems to pick up spin and offspeed pitches well out of the pitcher's hand, as demonstrated by the consistency of his contact, and chase rates when broken down by pitcher handedness and pitch type.

	Swing%	Contact%	InZoneWhiff%	Chase%
LHP	41%	82.8%	16.7%	21.7%
RHP	50%	86.6%	8.2%	21.6%
FourSeam	47.5%	91.2%	7.2%	25.8%
TwoSeam	42.2%	82.6%	12.5%	11.3%
Slider	36.8%	81.3%	5%	25%
Curveball	30.4%	83.7%	0%	21.4%
Changeup	45%	86.1%	16%	22.4%

Jenkins utilizes the whole field well, as we can see from a scatter of his batted ball events. My conjecture is that his ability to hit the ball the other way (in tandem with his growing but not-yet-maxed power) is what’s leading to a relatively low slugging average so far. A lot of his batted-ball events are longish fly ball outs to the opposite field. The tide will turn on those soon, as he continues to add strength (or starts to pull the ball a little more).

For me, health is the only concern. Jenkins combines outstanding bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions with indications that he’ll continue to add offensive impact, in terms of extra-base hits. Don’t let the baseball card stats fool you; this 19-year-old is a global top-10 prospect in baseball

Research assistance provided by TruMedia Sports

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[FlyingFinn]

Speaking of health, is Jenkins healthy? Are the Twins playing it ultra-conservative in having him DH so much or is there still lingering problems with the injury? If there are lingering problems, his #'s should get better when completely healthy.

[LambchoP]

What really matters at the end of the day are ACTUAL numbers. He's been ok,not great. He's still young though, he'll be fine. My biggest worry is health. This team seems to have a really hard time keeping their stars and prospects on the field....

[roger]

Thanks for this under the hood look at Jenkins.  It is appreciated, Jamie.

Is exciting thinking about how good this young man can be.  For me, he can't get here soon enough.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Love it, thanks Jamie! Hard to ask for a prospect to start from a better place, especially at 19. 

[DJL44]

Who keeps the zone that red off the plate away? He must be good at going opposite field for hits. His only hole appears to be pitches above the zone.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Speaking of health, is Jenkins healthy? Are the Twins playing it ultra-conservative in having him DH so much or is there still lingering problems with the injury? If there are lingering problems, his #'s should get better when completely healthy.

They want to make sure they try to churn out as many poor fielders as they can. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree that Duran is way too high on this list.  I also think Lee and Lewis need to swap positions.  Lee is VERY good, but does not have the superstar potential of Lewis.  If I were trading with the Twins I'd for sure ask for Lewis before I'd ask for Lee.

Also, I highly doubt that the FO would trade any of these 1-5 guys.  That said, NOBODY is, nor should be, untouchable.

Wrong thread

[bean5302]

So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball.

Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball.

Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.

I was also expecting more. Teel is in AA as a catcher..... And doing well. Jenkins hasn't shown any growth from last year, he hasn't forced his way up the ladder. He's been fine, which is not what anyone expected or wants. 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

What really matters at the end of the day are ACTUAL numbers. He's been ok,not great. He's still young though, he'll be fine. My biggest worry is health. This team seems to have a really hard time keeping their stars and prospects on the field....

At this point of his career I would disagree that numbers are what matters.  It is about development and approach and making sure the results will hopefully get there, even more so when you face better pitching.  We see many guys do well numbers wise at a lower level, but then as they move up they do not produce because they crushed weak pitching on weak fastballs, but when they start facing good breaking pitches they chase and or miss in the zone. 

Over this short sample if he gets a week with 2 to 3 HR his numbers will start to fly up. 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I was also expecting more. Teel is in AA as a catcher..... And doing well. Jenkins hasn't shown any growth from last year, he hasn't forced his way up the ladder. He's been fine, which is not what anyone expected or wants. 

I agree. So much fluff in these recent articles on Jenkins. I dropped him to 3rd in my org prospects list. It's time for him to prove he can handle the lowest range of professional competition with more than pop ups and grounders while DH'ing.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Trov said:

...Over this short sample if he gets a week with 2 to 3 HR his numbers will start to fly up. 

He's had 6 weeks to do that in his second go 'round of the lowest level of full season professional baseball. Again, not what is expected from a #5 overall pick.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Who keeps the zone that red off the plate away? He must be good at going opposite field for hits. His only hole appears to be pitches above the zone.

That's what I thought after seeing the Chase% on fastballs, too. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I was also expecting more. Teel is in AA as a catcher..... And doing well. Jenkins hasn't shown any growth from last year, he hasn't forced his way up the ladder. He's been fine, which is not what anyone expected or wants. 

Lots of guys that are drafted are just out of high school but many/most hitters have been in college for 2-4 years…………he’s fine, and with his injuries to date, it seems that’s all that can be expected from a 19 year old. Probably doesn’t get a sniff of Minneapolis until September of ‘26 at the earliest. Plenty of time to evolve.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lots of guys that are drafted are just out of high school but many/most hitters have been in college for 2-4 years…………he’s fine, and with his injuries to date, it seems that’s all that can be expected from a 19 year old. Probably doesn’t get a sniff of Minneapolis until September of ‘26 at the earliest. Plenty of time to evolve.

I mean, that's what I said, right? He's fine.....The elite of the elite come up at 21 or 22 (there are, of course, exceptions) when HS players.....I'm still hopeful, not worried, just not thrilled yet.

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, that's what I said, right? He's fine.....The elite of the elite come up at 21 or 22 (there are, of course, exceptions) when HS players.....I'm still hopeful, not worried, just not thrilled yet.

I guess the “……which is not what anyone expected or wants.” is what threw me. Nobody wants him to do poorly - I just don’t pay attention to the details at this low level. I’m confident that over the next 24-36 months he’ll develop into the guy they wanted. No guarantees obviously, but I don’t really (me, not everyone) pay attention to guys success at until he’s been in at least A ball for a couple months. He should do well - you’re right there! With a kid, and injuries, my expectations are really low.

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I guess the “……which is not what anyone expected or wants.” is what threw me. Nobody wants him to do poorly - I just don’t pay attention to the details at this low level. I’m confident that over the next 24-36 months he’ll develop into the guy they wanted. No guarantees obviously, but I don’t really (me, not everyone) pay attention to guys success at until he’s been in at least A ball for a couple months. He should do well - you’re right there! With a kid, and injuries, my expectations are really low.

My thought, and I could be wrong, but if you'd written a blog post before the year saying Jenkins would be in low A at the break, with no sign he needed promoting, people would be disappointed and that they would have expected him to be in high A at this point. Injury certainly altered that, but IMO, no one expected him to spend most of this year in low A. that was my point, not anything about the future at all.....

[Walser]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball.

Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.

He's 19, it's a small sample size, and his OPS is above league average anyway. His stats aren't eyepopping so far but players who walk a lot and make good swing decisions tend to have good results in the long run, and there's no reason to think Jenkins won't develop more power. Jenkins is a very exciting prospect.

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's time for him to prove he can handle the lowest range of professional competition with more than pop ups and grounders while DH'ing.

He's 19, just out of HS and coming off a leg injury a player needs to be careful with.  Perhaps we should give him some time before we say he needs to "prove it". 🤷‍♂️

Just my two cents worth.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Walser said:

He's 19, it's a small sample size, and his OPS is above league average anyway. His stats aren't eyepopping so far but players who walk a lot and make good swing decisions tend to have good results in the long run, and there's no reason to think Jenkins won't develop more power. Jenkins is a very exciting prospect.

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do.

Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. 

Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

[dougd]

He was ranked No 6 on BPro's post draft top 50 list. (ERod was 12)

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, dougd said:

He was ranked No 6 on BPro's post draft top 50 list. (ERod was 12)

Yep. Austin Martin was ranked up there in 2021, too.

[Walser]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do.

Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. 

Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

All high school prospects are raw prospects, and the reason I wouldn't advise being so results-oriented this early in his career is because we don't know if he's in the process of reworking his swing, nor do we know the severity of his injury. Consider Royce's minor league career with its ups and downs as he worked to find the swing that works for him. All the positive qualities you mention (his athleticism, size, pedigree) should give you confidence that he'll work things out. If a career minor league OPS of .905 is Jenkins at his worst, imagine how great he could become with a little refinement.

[Old Twins Hat]

It's early, he's young, no need to panic.

But, there were five top prospects in his draft class, and everybody said that any one of them could be taken as a first pick in a normal year, and that it wasn't a normal year.

Skenes is doing pretty good.  Crews is looking good.  The guy that Texas picked in front of Jenkins is already in the Major Leagues.  True enough, those picks were college guys.

So, I think the expectations of comparing the five prospects from that year were not fairly weighted.  Jenkins is young and big and strong and could end up being beyond solid.  But, the comps of being grouped with the other four was unrealistic.

Jenkins will rise to his level as time goes on, but only with ups and downs that a kid his age experiences.

He ain't going to be a super young super star, that's all we know at this point.

[tony&rodney]

Jenkins wasn't in the lineup tonight after a week off. Hmmm.

Patience is needed when thinking about prospects.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. Austin Martin was ranked up there in 2021, too.

So was Gunnar Henderson.  What's your point. 

[TL]

Taking everything into account, especially age and the underlying numbers, he may go #2 in a re-draft of 2023. Skenes is as of now the undisputed #1 in that class, but after that a good case can be made for Jenkins (if not Teel).

[FargoFanMan]

Jenkins compared to the other HS bats. He’s elite at this point for a 19 yo at low A. Other than Colt Emerson and maybe… maybe Max Clark there isn’t a single 2023 HS bat that’s showing as much promise as Jenkins as far as elite discipline. He’s simply not swinging at stuff out of the zone and if he is he’s still clobbering it which is huge for a young player. Looking at BB to K ratio and OBP he’s replicating what Mauer did at A ball. And from these reports he’s on track. Blake Mitchell has the flashy numbers but is striking out at a astronomical rate which is unsustainable once he reaches the upper minors unless he improves his swing and miss rates. At low A I’d rather see Jenkins’ numbers than Mitchells numbers. Jenkins is fine. He’s gonna be a good player barring a catastrophic set back. Maybe not Bryce Harper in the bigs at 19 but he’s on track to be a star/ very solid MLer. And that’s about the best you can ask from a #5 pick in the MLB draft. Stop hating. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm wondering if Walker Jenkins is ready for Cedar Rapids, where the weather is cooler and there are fewer rainouts and wet fields. Seems like the kid could handle a jump in competition, but I'm in no hurry if the experts believe he needs a full year of low A ball.