It's Very Early, But Walker Jenkins is Showing Very Well By Advanced Metrics

Speaking of health, is Jenkins healthy? Are the Twins playing it ultra-conservative in having him DH so much or is there still lingering problems with the injury? If there are lingering problems, his #'s should get better when completely healthy.

What really matters at the end of the day are ACTUAL numbers. He's been ok,not great. He's still young though, he'll be fine. My biggest worry is health. This team seems to have a really hard time keeping their stars and prospects on the field....

Thanks for this under the hood look at Jenkins.  It is appreciated, Jamie.

Is exciting thinking about how good this young man can be.  For me, he can't get here soon enough.

Who keeps the zone that red off the plate away? He must be good at going opposite field for hits. His only hole appears to be pitches above the zone.

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree that Duran is way too high on this list.  I also think Lee and Lewis need to swap positions.  Lee is VERY good, but does not have the superstar potential of Lewis.  If I were trading with the Twins I'd for sure ask for Lewis before I'd ask for Lee.

Also, I highly doubt that the FO would trade any of these 1-5 guys.  That said, NOBODY is, nor should be, untouchable.

Wrong thread

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

What really matters at the end of the day are ACTUAL numbers. He's been ok,not great. He's still young though, he'll be fine. My biggest worry is health. This team seems to have a really hard time keeping their stars and prospects on the field....

At this point of his career I would disagree that numbers are what matters.  It is about development and approach and making sure the results will hopefully get there, even more so when you face better pitching.  We see many guys do well numbers wise at a lower level, but then as they move up they do not produce because they crushed weak pitching on weak fastballs, but when they start facing good breaking pitches they chase and or miss in the zone. 

Over this short sample if he gets a week with 2 to 3 HR his numbers will start to fly up. 

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball.

Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.

He's 19, it's a small sample size, and his OPS is above league average anyway. His stats aren't eyepopping so far but players who walk a lot and make good swing decisions tend to have good results in the long run, and there's no reason to think Jenkins won't develop more power. Jenkins is a very exciting prospect.

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's time for him to prove he can handle the lowest range of professional competition with more than pop ups and grounders while DH'ing.

He's 19, just out of HS and coming off a leg injury a player needs to be careful with.  Perhaps we should give him some time before we say he needs to "prove it". 🤷‍♂️

Just my two cents worth.

He was ranked No 6 on BPro's post draft top 50 list. (ERod was 12)

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do.

Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. 

Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

All high school prospects are raw prospects, and the reason I wouldn't advise being so results-oriented this early in his career is because we don't know if he's in the process of reworking his swing, nor do we know the severity of his injury. Consider Royce's minor league career with its ups and downs as he worked to find the swing that works for him. All the positive qualities you mention (his athleticism, size, pedigree) should give you confidence that he'll work things out. If a career minor league OPS of .905 is Jenkins at his worst, imagine how great he could become with a little refinement.

It's early, he's young, no need to panic.

But, there were five top prospects in his draft class, and everybody said that any one of them could be taken as a first pick in a normal year, and that it wasn't a normal year.

Skenes is doing pretty good.  Crews is looking good.  The guy that Texas picked in front of Jenkins is already in the Major Leagues.  True enough, those picks were college guys.

So, I think the expectations of comparing the five prospects from that year were not fairly weighted.  Jenkins is young and big and strong and could end up being beyond solid.  But, the comps of being grouped with the other four was unrealistic.

Jenkins will rise to his level as time goes on, but only with ups and downs that a kid his age experiences.

He ain't going to be a super young super star, that's all we know at this point.

Jenkins wasn't in the lineup tonight after a week off. Hmmm.

Patience is needed when thinking about prospects.

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. Austin Martin was ranked up there in 2021, too.

So was Gunnar Henderson.  What's your point. 

Jenkins compared to the other HS bats. He’s elite at this point for a 19 yo at low A. Other than Colt Emerson and maybe… maybe Max Clark there isn’t a single 2023 HS bat that’s showing as much promise as Jenkins as far as elite discipline. He’s simply not swinging at stuff out of the zone and if he is he’s still clobbering it which is huge for a young player. Looking at BB to K ratio and OBP he’s replicating what Mauer did at A ball. And from these reports he’s on track. Blake Mitchell has the flashy numbers but is striking out at a astronomical rate which is unsustainable once he reaches the upper minors unless he improves his swing and miss rates. At low A I’d rather see Jenkins’ numbers than Mitchells numbers. Jenkins is fine. He’s gonna be a good player barring a catastrophic set back. Maybe not Bryce Harper in the bigs at 19 but he’s on track to be a star/ very solid MLer. And that’s about the best you can ask from a #5 pick in the MLB draft. Stop hating. 

I'm wondering if Walker Jenkins is ready for Cedar Rapids, where the weather is cooler and there are fewer rainouts and wet fields. Seems like the kid could handle a jump in competition, but I'm in no hurry if the experts believe he needs a full year of low A ball.

On 7/19/2024 at 2:56 PM, bean5302 said:

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do.

Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. 

Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

He’s the top ranked HS bat in his draft class. Already showing elite discipline. After missing the first couple months of the season. Also after dominating rookie ball for 9 games after his return. What else do you want after 62 games from a 19 YO? Bryce Harper? Mike Trout? Come on. Be realistic here.