It's Very Early, But Walker Jenkins is Showing Very Well By Advanced Metrics

[FargoFanMan]

On 7/19/2024 at 2:56 PM, bean5302 said:

Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do.

Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. 

Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.

He’s the top ranked HS bat in his draft class. Already showing elite discipline. After missing the first couple months of the season. Also after dominating rookie ball for 9 games after his return. What else do you want after 62 games from a 19 YO? Bryce Harper? Mike Trout? Come on. Be realistic here.