Make It Official! Twins 8, White Sox 6: Bats Back Sheriff in Return to Rotation

[Road trip]

20 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I recognize Margot's recent OPS.

I also recognize that the time frame you've chose has required over the top numbers against left handers to produce that OPS.

Since June 1

Against RH: 45 PA's - .220 BA - .606 OPS

Against LH: 35 PA's - .367 BA - 1062 OPS

He is still facing more right handers than left handers.

Wallner would play more because of the 75% right handers. 

I agree with you that I look forward to the best of both. But... Right Now... If I had to choose using hind sight in all the advantages that hind sight gives you.

Those exit Velo's made my decision. My original post was just a thought exercise and right now I'm thinking about swapping out another hitter in St. Paul that was as hot as Wallner and Lee.

How can we work Severino into the lineup at the expense of Farmer?    

 

I'm with you on preferring Wallner, and have been waiting somewhat impatiently  since late June.

If we are going to ignore April and May for Margot as many seem to want to do, can we not do the same for Wallner?

Oh wait, we don't have to.  Including the horrific April for Wallner, 2024 slash lines -

.167/.333/.433  OPS+ 116   .2 WAR

vs Margot

.235/.302/.335  OPS+ 81   -.7 WAR

There will come a time, hopefully quite soon, when Lewis and Martin are healthy and there will be a roster crunch.  Not much question in my mind who needs to stay if these lines continue.

 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I'm with you on preferring Wallner, and have been waiting somewhat impatiently  since late June.

If we are going to ignore April and May for Margot as many seem to want to do, can we not do the same for Wallner?

Oh wait, we don't have to.  Including the horrific April for Wallner, 2024 slash lines -

.167/.333/.433  OPS+ 116   .2 WAR

vs Margot

.235/.302/.335  OPS+ 81   -.7 WAR

There will come a time, hopefully quite soon, when Lewis and Martin are healthy and there will be a roster crunch.  Not much question in my mind who needs to stay if these lines continue.

 

I spend my days hoping for a roster crunch. 13 guys who can play is always what I want to see. 

If the Roster crunch comes. You always pull from the bottom. 

You can't have a roster crunch if the bottom is allowed to remain. 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I'm with you on preferring Wallner, and have been waiting somewhat impatiently  since late June.

If we are going to ignore April and May for Margot as many seem to want to do, can we not do the same for Wallner?

Oh wait, we don't have to.  Including the horrific April for Wallner, 2024 slash lines -

.167/.333/.433  OPS+ 116   .2 WAR

vs Margot

.235/.302/.335  OPS+ 81   -.7 WAR

There will come a time, hopefully quite soon, when Lewis and Martin are healthy and there will be a roster crunch.  Not much question in my mind who needs to stay if these lines continue.

 

Not to mention Margot has been brutal in the outfield.

 

[LambchoP]

I'd say trade Farmer for anything at all if we can, otherwise cut ties and be done. We've got enough infielders and if we need another one due to injury, Severino has a hot bat in AAA

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Can they stash Farm Dog on the IL for a while?

[Alex Schieferdecker]

No matter how dire it looks in any given game against the White Sox, I have faith the Twins will beat them in the end.

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Can they stash Farm Dog on the IL for a while?

1. If they release him

2. No one claims him

3. He doesn't declare free agency seeking a major league job and accepts assignment to St. Paul.   

 I don't see 1 happening at least not yet. And 3 won't happen at all. 

2 will certainly happen if 1 happens. 

I'm sorry... I didn't mean for math to be a part of this post. 

No they can't was the simple answer. 

[Patzky]

Weather forecast isn't promising for tonight but both teams are off Thursday..

[Riverbrian]

I apologize for all of the Wallner/Margot talk I sent into this thread. 

Don't get me wrong. The Twins offense has been fantastic lately and the Wallner/Margot talk makes it sound like I think we are drowning unless changes are made. 

The offense has been great. My thought are bottom of the 26 man roster thoughts. 

[JD-TWINS]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I used 80 AB's because that was how many AB's Kepler got in June and Kepler didn't start against left handers. 

Yes... Based on what Margot has done vs. left handers in the month of June... You make a solid point. 

In order to protect Wallner against left handers that comprise 25% of the pitches thrown. You have to roster a player who struggles to hit 75% of the pitching and in the end faces more right handers because of the 3 to 1 disparity. I'll take the small percentage hit for the larger percentage gain in this apple and orange choice between two players.   

That is of course assuming that Wallner would continue to be a larger percentage gain which isn't for sure because it's only been two games and also assuming that Wallner would continue to be a small percentage hit which also isn't for sure because Wallner or anyone can improve against left handers with exposure.  

The reality is they are both on the 26-man as was intended at the end of March. Not sure what the debate is about?

One guy hits LH very well & is subpar v. RH pitching. The other hits RH pitching and is subpar v. LH pitching. 75% or so of pitchers are RH. All known stuff going into the season as well - thus the reasoning to carry both on the roster.

 

[Joe Schmitt]

And, separate and apart from the RH/LH stuff (which I agree with), sometimes a player needs to go down to get reset/restore their confidence/work on their swing.  Sending someone down can actually yield a better result later. Fingers crossed that the same thing happens to Julien.  If it does, then we'll REALLY have a roster crunch, which would be awesome.
 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The reality is they are both on the 26-man as was intended at the end of March. Not sure what the debate is about?

One guy hits LH very well & is subpar v. RH pitching. The other hits RH pitching and is subpar v. LH pitching. 75% or so of pitchers are RH. All known stuff going into the season as well - thus the reasoning to carry both on the roster.

 

That is true

Wallner/Castro, Julien/Farmer, Kirilloff/Margot was the original plan coming out of the off-season in my estimation. The team was certainly designed for Wallner/Margot and here they are both on the roster for two days.   

My Constant Long Term issue is:

I don't advocate committing 6 spots to platooning.

That's 6 roster spots used up to attempt something that will be blown apart the minute injury or ineffectiveness starts taking root.

You have to roster lesser players because 3 of those 6 roster spots are used on players who struggle against 75% of pitching. We are giving up more than what we get because they are facing more right handers.  

My recent question raised in this post spurred on by three absolutely crushed baseballs in two days of work. 

A. Would we better off with a left handed hitter hitting well against 75% of the league and struggling against 25%. That ends up playing more because of the 75%. 

B. Would we better off with a right handed hitter hitting well against 25% of the league and struggling against 75% of the league who ends up facing the 75% more often.  

I choose A. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

Well, are those 80 ab's against lefties?  I would not want to see a single at bat of Wallner against a leftie over Margot.  I agree Wallner looks good in his 2 games and crushed several balls against righties. but Margot still has a .OPS of .829 against lefties this year.  Margot is terrible against righties.  They are like the perfect platoon guys.  

So if Wallner is hitting against RH, him all day.  If a LH is on mound Margot over Wallner all day. 

Agreed. IF Wallner and Lee play like this, the choice isn't Wallner v. Margot when Lewis and Martin are ready. The choices are Lewis v. Farmer (easy call), and Margot v. Martin (much tougher call). My guess would be that Farmer is traded to a team that needs a depth IF like the Dodgers, maybe even for that MVP player "cash considerations"  and Martin goes back to AAA. Margot is really hitting LH pitching well. I don't see him being DFA'd and I don't see anyone trading for him. 

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The reality is they are both on the 26-man as was intended at the end of March. Not sure what the debate is about?

One guy hits LH very well & is subpar v. RH pitching. The other hits RH pitching and is subpar v. LH pitching. 75% or so of pitchers are RH. All known stuff going into the season as well - thus the reasoning to carry both on the roster.

 

Are we sure Matt Wallner is subpar v LH pitching? He wasn't in the minors last year (.848 OPS vs Lefties). Or in 2022 (.911 OPS vs Lefties). He's only been given 65 PAs in the majors against lefties. He hasn't been good against them, but 65 PAs is not exactly a lot of PAs. There's a chance the difference between Wallner and Margot against lefties isn't all that significant. We won't likely find out anytime soon, though.

[gregens]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Not to mention Margot has been brutal in the outfield.

I can think of 3 balls in the last month that most ball players would have easily caught that fell out of Margot's glove.   I cringe everytime a line drive is hit to left when he is out there.

 

[stringer bell]

Buxton looks terrific right now and yesterday was an example that base running isn’t all about stolen bases. Buck was flying from first to third on Lee’s 11th inning single.  He read it as a hit and advanced where he could score on an out, which he did. I don’t know how many other guys on the team score on the dribbler to third, but most of them wouldn’t. Moving Byron down in the order seems to have unlocked something. 

[jimbo92107]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm concerned with Brooks Lee. He only went 2 for 5 tonight, and his BA is dropping like a rock. 

Imagine how Jose Miranda feels. He missed a couple hits tonight. What's he doing wrong??

[RpR]

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That is true

Wallner/Castro, Julien/Farmer, Kirilloff/Margot was the original plan coming out of the off-season in my estimation. The team was certainly designed for Wallner/Margot and here they are both on the roster for two days.   

My Constant Long Term issue is:

I don't advocate committing 6 spots to platooning.

That's 6 roster spots used up to attempt something that will be blown apart the minute injury or ineffectiveness starts taking root.

You have to roster lesser players because 3 of those 6 roster spots are used on players who struggle against 75% of pitching. We are giving up more than what we get because they are facing more right handers.  

My recent question raised in this post spurred on by three absolutely crushed baseballs in two days of work. 

A. Would we better off with a left handed hitter hitting well against 75% of the league and struggling against 25%. That ends up playing more because of the 75%. 

B. Would we better off with a right handed hitter hitting well against 25% of the league and struggling against 75% of the league who ends up facing the 75% more often.  

I choose A. 

 

The Twins are 52-39 all the little old lady back-seat driving is silly.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we sure Matt Wallner is subpar v LH pitching? He wasn't in the minors last year (.848 OPS vs Lefties). Or in 2022 (.911 OPS vs Lefties). He's only been given 65 PAs in the majors against lefties. He hasn't been good against them, but 65 PAs is not exactly a lot of PAs. There's a chance the difference between Wallner and Margot against lefties isn't all that significant. We won't likely find out anytime soon, though.

Schrodinger's Cat

Place Wallner in a box marked left handed pitchers. Close the lid and carry on with the season. 

You won't know if Wallner is alive or dead?

One thing is for sure though. Wallner won't be sitting on the window ledge watching birds at the bird feeder or coughing up hairballs on the brand new carpet because he's in the box with the lid shut.      

 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

The Twins are 52-39 all the little old lady back-seat driving is silly.

I can read the standings. 

The Twins are doing very well offensively. 

[JD-TWINS]

38 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That is true

Wallner/Castro, Julien/Farmer, Kirilloff/Margot was the original plan coming out of the off-season in my estimation. The team was certainly designed for Wallner/Margot and here they are both on the roster for two days.   

My Constant Long Term issue is:

I don't advocate committing 6 spots to platooning.

That's 6 roster spots used up to attempt something that will be blown apart the minute injury or ineffectiveness starts taking root.

You have to roster lesser players because 3 of those 6 roster spots are used on players who struggle against 75% of pitching. We are giving up more than what we get because they are facing more right handers.  

My recent question raised in this post spurred on by three absolutely crushed baseballs in two days of work. 

A. Would we better off with a left handed hitter hitting well against 75% of the league and struggling against 25%. That ends up playing more because of the 75%. 

B. Would we better off with a right handed hitter hitting well against 25% of the league and struggling against 75% of the league who ends up facing the 75% more often.  

I choose A. 

 

A ROSTER is a collection of guys to help get wins. Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate. Who else should be on the Roster? ……….What’s the problem? Repeatedly stating 75% of AB’s come from LH batters is a point made. Still gotta have a solution for the other 25% of the time.

Who is more valuable between Margot & Wallner? This seems to be the premise or question. As you stated, Wallner looks like Barry Bonds over his first 6 AB’s/PA’s. We don’t know yet. I’d bet a whole bunch on the hunch that Wallner is the better player by a big margin!! However, there’s room on the Roster for numerous solutions.

Wallner - Larnach - Kepler (3 LH guys that play OF & can DH v. RH pitching)………Buxton - Margot - Castro provide answers v. LH foes.

Lee - Santana - Castro provide multiple solutions at varying levels of success as switch hitters.

Farmer is the current additional bat v. LH pitching - Lewis to follow & probably supplant at some point.

Miranda - Correa - Buxton seem to be the guys that can hit v. pitching from either side with some reliability. The catchers are in their defensive niche trying to contribute occasionally on offense.

These are the 13 guys healthy enough to play and they are suited to platoon as needed. Again, I don’t see a problem.

As frustrating as it may sound, the organization held on to Gallo last year through September. I think there’s a good chance of that being the path for Farmer. Hallo pulled a leg muscle and went on the IL for a piece of August which helped Team hang in to him…..maybe Farmer gets an oblique issue in a few weeks? Gallo ended up getting playing time in September because of injuries……the roster expands and they may want Farmer around for that? With Lewis hurt 70% of the time - not being funny - the organization wants to mitigate risk and Farmer may turn out to be part of that strategy? Cannot, without some unforeseen downturn, option Lee!!!! I don’t see moving Wallner again either after the 6 PA’s!

Tough decisions coming.

[jimbo92107]

I will say I like how the Twins are managing Chris Paddack. Quit thinking he's an innings horse. Give him a week off when he needs it, don't drive him too hard. Hell, let him skip a turn now and then, This way, he might last a whole season without needing another elbow job. The team's got enough AAA starters on the edge of making it, so use them to spell Paddack, and others. 

In a way, this team is loaded with talent. The starters are stacked, and St Paul is a wellspring of excellent reserves. Maybe this IS the year the Twins do a little something...

[jimbo92107]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Schrodinger's Cat

Place Wallner in a box marked left handed pitchers. Close the lid and carry on with the season. 

You won't know if Wallner is alive or dead?

One thing is for sure though. Wallner won't be sitting on the window ledge watching birds at the bird feeder or coughing up hairballs on the brand new carpet because he's in the box with the lid shut.      

 

On a slightly different topic...

Whatever happened to Schrodinger's cat? It's been a hundred years...anybody open the box? 

[Mike Sixel]

It really isn't a rough decision to move on from Farmer. He offers nothing at this point that Martin doesn't do better. Once he or Lewis is healthy, move on. It costs like half a million dollars to do so. 

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A ROSTER is a collection of guys to help get wins. Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate. Who else should be on the Roster? ……….What’s the problem? Repeatedly stating 75% of AB’s come from LH batters is a point made. Still gotta have a solution for the other 25% of the time.

 

Tough decisions coming.

Right now I would split a bet on they are more interested to see what happens to Lee when pitcher find his weak spots as they did to Lewis.

Plus if Miranda is on a career year or they will figure him out also.

It does intrique me what happens if an injry cancer hits the Twins again, although Baldelli act like mother hen as much as a pro-monager.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Margot got off to a horrific start but at the plate, I think he's competent. Biggest issue with him, surprisingly, is his play in the outfield. He's a train wreck out there.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A ROSTER is a collection of guys to help get wins. Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate. Who else should be on the Roster? ……….What’s the problem? Repeatedly stating 75% of AB’s come from LH batters is a point made. Still gotta have a solution for the other 25% of the time.

Who is more valuable between Margot & Wallner? This seems to be the premise or question. As you stated, Wallner looks like Barry Bonds over his first 6 AB’s/PA’s. We don’t know yet. I’d bet a whole bunch on the hunch that Wallner is the better player by a big margin!! However, there’s room on the Roster for numerous solutions.

Wallner - Larnach - Kepler (3 LH guys that play OF & can DH v. RH pitching)………Buxton - Margot - Castro provide answers v. LH foes.

Lee - Santana - Castro provide multiple solutions at varying levels of success as switch hitters.

Farmer is the current additional bat v. LH pitching - Lewis to follow & probably supplant at some point.

Miranda - Correa - Buxton seem to be the guys that can hit v. pitching from either side with some reliability. The catchers are in their defensive niche trying to contribute occasionally on offense.

These are the 13 guys healthy enough to play and they are suited to platoon as needed. Again, I don’t see a problem.

As frustrating as it may sound, the organization held on to Gallo last year through September. I think there’s a good chance of that being the path for Farmer. Hallo pulled a leg muscle and went on the IL for a piece of August which helped Team hang in to him…..maybe Farmer gets an oblique issue in a few weeks? Gallo ended up getting playing time in September because of injuries……the roster expands and they may want Farmer around for that? With Lewis hurt 70% of the time - not being funny - the organization wants to mitigate risk and Farmer may turn out to be part of that strategy? Cannot, without some unforeseen downturn, option Lee!!!! I don’t see moving Wallner again either after the 6 PA’s!

Tough decisions coming.

The problem is the assumption that you'd "go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate."

The Twins have a total of 84 PAs of lefties facing lefties this year. 84. That's less than 1 a game. Manuel Margot has 106 PAs against righties. The Twins lefties facing lefty pitchers have a .625 OPS. Margot facing righties has a .472 OPS. Margot is the one with "no chance at the plate," but he's getting more PAs against righties than every lefty hitter the Twins have combined have gotten against lefties despite them doing better. 

13 of the 23 MLB lefties with at least 100 PAs against lefties have a wRC+ over 100 this year. And Jackson Merrill seems to have figured them out recently as well so he's on his way up. Devers and Arraez are at 97 and 95 as well. That's 16 of 23 players with at least 100 PAs (again, more than the entire Twins lefty lineup has) that most certainly have a chance at the plate against lefties. The Twins have decided they aren't even going to find out if their guys can do it. They'd rather pinch hit Margot in the 5th or 6th for a lefty knowing he's almost guaranteed to face a righty later in the game than see if their lefties can hit lefties. 

If Gunnar Henderson were on the Twins do you think he'd have 127 PAs against lefties this year? His wRC+ against them is 152. He's got an .881 OPS against lefties. The only Twin with 100 PAs and a better wRC+ overall than Gunnar has against lefties is Jose Miranda (155). Gunnar Henderson is better lefty on lefty than every Twins hitter is overall outside Jose Miranda. The Twins wouldn't even give Gunnar a chance. That's our problem with their strategy. They've decided it's impossible for their lefties to hit lefties so they don't even try.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

 We've got enough infielders and if we need another one due to injury, Severino has a hot bat in AAA

Julien is sitting there as well. I do wonder how many of their current infielders will still be in the organization after the trade deadline. I expect to see position players traded off the roster to acquire pitching.

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate.

JD... You are a smart guy. You have my respect. 

Don't take this the wrong way... but I won't go into a zero sum discussion on this. 

You know we are talking about percentages of advantage on both sides of the plate. Please don't "No Chance" this discussion. 

Even if I believed that Wallner would have a lower percentage against left handed pitchers than Margot does against right handed pitchers. How much lower are we talking about?

Is it low enough to make up for 75% to 25%?

Are you not giving whatever advantage you gain right back when Margot faces more right handed pitching than left handed pitching?   

Why do Margot and Farmer face more right handed pitching then left handed pitching? 

 

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That is true

Wallner/Castro, Julien/Farmer, Kirilloff/Margot was the original plan coming out of the off-season in my estimation. The team was certainly designed for Wallner/Margot and here they are both on the roster for two days.   

My Constant Long Term issue is:

I don't advocate committing 6 spots to platooning.

That's 6 roster spots used up to attempt something that will be blown apart the minute injury or ineffectiveness starts taking root.

Then there's Austin Martin who plays 2B and LF but doesn't have terrible platoon issues.