So...What Do the Twins Do With Caleb Thielbar?

[Matthew Taylor]

After being so good for so long, we are witnessing some major struggles from Caleb Thielbar this season, which has put the Twins in a difficult situation. What do the Twins do with the left hander?

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA Today

This decade, the Minnesota Twins have had their share of ups and downs with the bullpen, but Caleb Thielbar is one name that's been a steady source of reliability. Since his remarkable return to the Twins in 2020 after a five-year hiatus from the Big Leagues, Thielbar has been a crucial piece of Minnesota's bullpen, perhaps the most critical piece. From 2020-2023, Thielbar was second among Twins' relief in ERA and WPA, trailing only Jhoan Duran in both statistics, with an ERA of 3.21 and a cumulative WPA of 4.08. He threw the most relief innings at that time (174 IP) and collected the most fWAR (3.1). Whether as a left-handed specialist or a fireman to get the Twins out of precarious situations, Thielbar has been nothing short of a rock.

This year, however, has presented a starkly different narrative for Thielbar. He is currently enduring the most challenging season of his career. After starting the season on the injured list with a hamstring injury, Thielbar has posted a 7.71 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. His WHIP is over two, and he is walking batters at a higher rate than ever before in his career. Thielbar has been responsible for -0.1 fWAR this season with a WPA of -0.51. And this was after a tough finish to the season last year in which he posted a 4.66 ERA in September and got knocked around in both of his appearances in the ALDS against the Houston Astros (I apologize in advance for the Twitter clip below.)

Thielbar is 37 years old, and in an era where relievers are regularly throwing in the high 90s, it might be that Thielbar doesn't have the juice anymore to keep up with the direction that MLB bullpens have headed. Thielbar is getting knocked around, and the Twins suffer as a result. The southpaw is getting barreled up 16% of the time, allowing harder contact than ever. He came into the season as their top lefty arm but has quickly moved down the bullpen pecking order as he just has not been reliable enough to get crucial outs down the stretch of games.

So, the Twins find themselves at a critical juncture with Thielbar. Do they stick with him and keep throwing him out there despite some very concerning signs that his prime reliever days are very much behind him? Or do they stick with the guy who has been so consistent for them over the past four seasons and hope that he works his way out of it?

There are certainly reasons to stick with their veteran left-hander.

Underneath the hood, the numbers for Thielbar provide optimism for the Twins. He has significantly lower expected numbers than actual numbers (though still not great expected numbers, truth be told). His velocity is the same as it has always been, and he is striking out and generating the same swing-and-miss numbers as he always has. Thielbar has been bad, but after being so excellent for four consecutive seasons for the Twins, cutting the guy after 16 bad innings seems hasty and not wise. 

Additionally, the Twins don't have many reliable left-handed relievers in their organization to fill that role in the bullpen. Steven Okert has been solid but has had signs of trouble lately, and Kody Funderburk has looked good but is still young and unproven.

Thielbar has shown that he can go through slumps on the mound (just as every reliever does) and come back in a big way. Take 2022, for example. Through the first three months of the season (28 innings), Thielbar owned a 5.46 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Once the calendar turned to July, though, Theilbar turned things around in a significant way, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP down the stretch of the season.

The Twins owe it to Thielbar to stick with him, at least up until the trade deadline. He has been too good for too long and is too beloved in that locker room to move on from him at the first sign of trouble. If we get to the end of July and Thielbar shows that he is just truly cooked, then at that point, the Twins can explore moving on from the veteran and looking to the trade market for a southpaw that can replace him. But for now, the Twins should do their best to give Thielbar advantageous lefty-lefty matchups and low-leverage appearances when they can and help get their reliever back on track.

Should the Twins move on from Caleb Thielbar or stick with him? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.

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[Jocko87]

I would certainly agree that he gets some benefit of doubt the figure things out but he's past the point of figuring it out in the bigs. Sitting for 8 days and then stinking again doesn't help the roster, the rest of the guys are really stretched.

He needs an IL stint and a rehab, at a minimum. Something is hurting.

Or, take two weeks off and quit. Father time is undefeated.

[$tryf4Life]

Unfortunately, they should release him.

the goal is to win. To do that, you must have the mentality of the present. Yes that means: what have you done for me lately. 
 

It feels very Minnesota sport to be sitting here and saying they owe it to him to because of the last few years. They aren’t in the business of loyalty. At least they shouldn’t be. They should be in the business of trying to win a championship. 
 

If we can’t trust a bullpen arm, they can’t be in this bullpen. It’s go time. We have a gap in the central to close. 

[LambchoP]

Sadly, it doesn't matter what he's done in the past, only what he's done this year. He looks cooked. There are other options out there.

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Sadly, it doesn't matter what he's done in the past, only what he's done this year. He looks cooked. There are other options out there.

The same can be said for a lot of the Twins pitchers.

[LA Vikes Fan]

You can't stay with a guy who is as bad as Thielbar has been, regardless of his past contributions. I would IL him if there is a plausible way to do that. Give him 2-3 weeks of rest AND a rehab stint in AAA to see if he can come back. If not, give him a bobblehead night and a tearful yet joyous send off. 

[old nurse]

I wonder if he is tipping his fastball or if there are specific situations it is almost always a fastball . That would be a deeper dive than I am capable of doing., but it could explain the different results if everything else seems unchanged 

[Reptevia]

You keep running him out there. Can’t let recency bias color the metrics. 

[mikelink45]

I am afraid this is about winning, not what you did in the past.  Okert has not looked that good, they failed with Jackson.  Can we afford to be lenient?  I can't answer that, but I suspect that he will answer it himself in the next two weeks. 

[lecroy24fan]

I wonder if he would be willing to go to St Paul for 10 days and work on things? Much like Abreu did with HOU. Hopefully the end result would be better than it was for Abreu.

[teej]

I just don't think you can justify him much longer. His numbers are horrible and his baseball savant metrics don't indicate he's a much better pitcher who's just getting unlucky. He's pitched 8 big league seasons and had a career to be proud of but his time in Minnesota should be over the second they get a better arm for the pen. 

[USAFChief]

He's unusable. 

Try someone else. 

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

I wonder if he is tipping his fastball or if there are specific situations it is almost always a fastball . That would be a deeper dive than I am capable of doing., but it could explain the different results if everything else seems unchanged 

His fastball movement and location is not the same and he's working with the pitching coaches to get it back. He's not injured. I think it is fixable but the question is how long.

[Karbo]

I hate to say they probably will need to move on soon. Give him a few more low pressure outings and if he still has problems DFA him.

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

He's unusable. 

Try someone else. 

Concur. Hiding him on the 26 man roster doesn’t benefit anyone. The DFA conversation needs to happen sooner than later. 

[Robert Gauthier]

I would offer a DFA with a minor-league contract for him to work on his game for a possible recall later in the year. Loyalty to vets is one thing but when you’re five or six games behind and you’re not making up any space you’re risking the entire season for loyalty. Tell me, how much good did Joey Gallo do the twins last year?   also we are blocking deserving younger players. 
The one thing that is odd about this front office is its devotion to veterans and impatience with younger players to the point that we choke off their development. Players do run through cold streaks, like Santana, Margot and Farmer have, but when the clock is ticking on rookie contracts, Why waste time?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As has been suggested by others, I think finding a way to get him a short stint on the IL for "tired arm" or "left arm tightness" followed by a rehab stint in St. Paul would be in order.  That gives him some time to work things out (if they can be worked out) without negatively affecting the Twins' game results.  He has been a terrific relief pitcher over the past few years, but alas, father time may be catching up to him.

[Karbo]

As I see it the Twins need at least 6 quality, dependable relievers in the pen. Right now they have 4. Duran, Jax, Alcala, and Staumont. That means they need at least 2 more, plus a couple of "long men". I can live with Sands and Okert for long men. That's why I would put Varland out there and hope we get Stewart and Topa healthy. Now that would be a pretty decent pen. 

I know they want to keep Varland stretched out, but IMO, they need to either put him in for Paddack and move Paddack to the pen or Varland in the pen. If something comes up to where they need a spot start or 2 they could pull someone up from AAA or have a bullpen day.

[Linus]

His velocity and stuff are still there. It’s more of a command issue. He may get it back or not. My question is if you dfa him who are your lefty relievers?  Okert and Funderburk?  No thanks. 

[DocBauer]

I wish I had an answer. He's walking way too many and is suddenly very hittable. BUT, he's still K-ing 10.5 per 9 and his velocity is still sitting in the 93-94 range and touching 95 once in a while. That's where he's been the past few years. That big, crazy curveball is still a nasty pitch. It looks like he just keeps missing his locations when I watch him.

But I don't know if it's that simple. If it is, there is  a way to fix it. So I don't know that you cut him today/tomorrow.

However,  whether it's  Thielbar or  someone else, they need a  LH arm they can trust in the latter  innings for the stretch run and the playoffs. And I don't know that that can be Okert, or Funderburk, at this point. 

You can't just make up an injury. The league tends to frown on that in a very harsh way. As they should. But I tend to agree that if there was some minor injury, some "tired arm" issue they could  report, I'd be in favor of a week or rest or so, and then a rehab at AAA for some confidence and a  mental  reset. No  disrespect to the coaches there, but if this really is mechanical in nature, I don't know that he gets any better at St Paul vs staying with  the Twins.