So...What Do the Twins Do With Caleb Thielbar?

This decade, the Minnesota Twins have had their share of ups and downs with the bullpen, but Caleb Thielbar is one name that's been a steady source of reliability. Since his remarkable return to the Twins in 2020 after a five-year hiatus from the Big Leagues, Thielbar has been a crucial piece of Minnesota's bullpen, perhaps the most critical piece. From 2020-2023, Thielbar was second among Twins' relief in ERA and WPA, trailing only Jhoan Duran in both statistics, with an ERA of 3.21 and a cumulative WPA of 4.08. He threw the most relief innings at that time (174 IP) and collected the most fWAR (3.1). Whether as a left-handed specialist or a fireman to get the Twins out of precarious situations, Thielbar has been nothing short of a rock.

This year, however, has presented a starkly different narrative for Thielbar. He is currently enduring the most challenging season of his career. After starting the season on the injured list with a hamstring injury, Thielbar has posted a 7.71 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. His WHIP is over two, and he is walking batters at a higher rate than ever before in his career. Thielbar has been responsible for -0.1 fWAR this season with a WPA of -0.51. And this was after a tough finish to the season last year in which he posted a 4.66 ERA in September and got knocked around in both of his appearances in the ALDS against the Houston Astros (I apologize in advance for the Twitter clip below.)

Thielbar is 37 years old, and in an era where relievers are regularly throwing in the high 90s, it might be that Thielbar doesn't have the juice anymore to keep up with the direction that MLB bullpens have headed. Thielbar is getting knocked around, and the Twins suffer as a result. The southpaw is getting barreled up 16% of the time, allowing harder contact than ever. He came into the season as their top lefty arm but has quickly moved down the bullpen pecking order as he just has not been reliable enough to get crucial outs down the stretch of games.

So, the Twins find themselves at a critical juncture with Thielbar. Do they stick with him and keep throwing him out there despite some very concerning signs that his prime reliever days are very much behind him? Or do they stick with the guy who has been so consistent for them over the past four seasons and hope that he works his way out of it?

There are certainly reasons to stick with their veteran left-hander.

Underneath the hood, the numbers for Thielbar provide optimism for the Twins. He has significantly lower expected numbers than actual numbers (though still not great expected numbers, truth be told). His velocity is the same as it has always been, and he is striking out and generating the same swing-and-miss numbers as he always has. Thielbar has been bad, but after being so excellent for four consecutive seasons for the Twins, cutting the guy after 16 bad innings seems hasty and not wise. 

Additionally, the Twins don't have many reliable left-handed relievers in their organization to fill that role in the bullpen. Steven Okert has been solid but has had signs of trouble lately, and Kody Funderburk has looked good but is still young and unproven.

Thielbar has shown that he can go through slumps on the mound (just as every reliever does) and come back in a big way. Take 2022, for example. Through the first three months of the season (28 innings), Thielbar owned a 5.46 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Once the calendar turned to July, though, Theilbar turned things around in a significant way, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP down the stretch of the season.

The Twins owe it to Thielbar to stick with him, at least up until the trade deadline. He has been too good for too long and is too beloved in that locker room to move on from him at the first sign of trouble. If we get to the end of July and Thielbar shows that he is just truly cooked, then at that point, the Twins can explore moving on from the veteran and looking to the trade market for a southpaw that can replace him. But for now, the Twins should do their best to give Thielbar advantageous lefty-lefty matchups and low-leverage appearances when they can and help get their reliever back on track.

Should the Twins move on from Caleb Thielbar or stick with him? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.