“Santana Takes It Himself”: An Absurdly In-Depth Study of an Offhand Remark About First-Base Defense

[Peter Labuza]

A casual remark on by Twins Broadcast Cory Provus ignites a deep dive on a fascinating statistic within baseball: how often do first basemen take a ground ball to their base themselves? Featuring charts and graphs! 

Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

If you've watched the Twins broadcast this season (or at least have fond memories, as it remains blacked out), perhaps you recall hearing Cory Provus say this (as I have noticed quite a few times): “And Santana will take it himself, as he often does.” 

Provus is, of course, referring to the Twins' primary first baseman, Carlos Santana, whose excellent defense has made up for his lagging offense. But Provus’s point was getting at something different. If a grounder is hit at Santana near first, he is more likely to get up and make for the bag rather than make the toss to the pitcher to get the out.

Occasionally, as we saw in Thursday’s win over the Royals, this can be quite spectacular to watch: 

But sometimes, in cases where a toss would be easier, Santana will take it himself:

But this remark got me asking: is it true? Does Santana actually lead the league in what TD Managing Editor Matt Trueblood and I have coined as the TiH (Take it Himself) Rate? Or is Cory Provus a liar, deceiving audiences everywhere with claims to create the wrong perceptions to poison this beautiful game? (If you’re reading this, Cory, this a joke and we love you here at TD. Even if Cory's not reading this, we love him.) 

Choosing whether to make the run to first is a split-second decision. It depends on the position of the first baseman, the speed of the batter, whether the pitcher is hustling over, how the ball was hit, and well, a lot of things. It's always a risk. In one costly decision earlier this season, Santana tossed it to pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson, whose run had briefly paused earlier and thus allowed a single:

But sometimes Santana is just playing nice with the pitcher, who perhaps wants a reward for his little hustle:

In trying to look at the obvious statistics, such as Exit Velocity or Expected Batting Average, there was no obvious pattern to when Santana made which choice. But we can use two key stats from Statcast—hc_x and hc_y—alongside a little trigonometry to estimate the Spray Angle of the ball (with the higher number essentially closer to first base and the foul line). We can thus evaluate whether the proximity to first base matters:

As we can see here, the spray angle does certainly make a difference, though not always. In the examples closer to second, Santana usually waits a bit on soft contact to field the ball, thus requiring the pitcher to head over and the toss to be made:

But what is most remarkable in this data is the overlap space. And we can certainly see from the data points that Santana has a positive TiH. But does he have one higher than the rest of the league? What exactly is an average TiH%?

Using Baseball Savant, I was able to take every single grounder to first this season by any player (this data also removed singles and errors like the one with Woods Richardson above, so there is potential for more to be examined here). After removing those who had yet to have many opportunities, we can see where Santana ranks among this season’s first basemen: 

Player	Team	Opportunities	TiH Count	TiH%
Encarnacion-Strand, Christian	Cincinnati	34	24	70.6%
Montero, Elehuris	Colorado	32	22	68.8%
Cronenworth, Jake	San Diego	57	38	66.7%
Díaz, Yandy	Tampa Bay	42	27	64.3%
Olson, Matt	Atlanta	56	36	64.3%
Walker, Christian	Arizona	78	50	64.1%
Vaughn, Andrew	Chi White Sox	50	32	64.0%
Santana, Carlos	Minnesota	54	34	63.0%
Flores, Wilmer	San Francisco	38	23	60.5%
Busch, Michael	Chi Cubs	50	30	60.0%
Tellez, Rowdy	Milwaukee	40	23	57.5%
Schanuel, Nolan	LA Angels	40	23	57.5%
Naylor, Josh	Cleveland	51	29	56.9%
Alonso, Pete	NY Mets	56	31	55.4%
Mountcastle, Ryan	Baltimore	49	27	55.1%
Torkelson, Spencer	Detroit	50	26	52.0%
Goldschmidt, Paul	St. Louis	58	30	51.7%
Lowe, Nathaniel	Texas	37	19	51.4%
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	Toronto	34	17	50.0%
Bell, Josh	Miami	33	16	48.5%
Harper, Bryce	Philadelphia	64	31	48.4%
Pasquantino, Vinnie	Kansas City	47	22	46.8%
France, Ty	Seattle	56	23	41.1%
Rizzo, Anthony	NY Yankees	57	19	33.3%
Freeman, Freddie	LA Dodgers	64	19	29.7%
Wade Jr., LaMonte	San Francisco	34	10	29.4%

As it turns out, Provus is on the right track. Santana sits at 63%, in about the top third of regular MLB first basemen. His rate is especially high when compared to some of the league’s better-known first basemen like Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo; the shorter and slower Santana is, in fact, more than twice as likely to hustle the ball to first than toss it to the pitcher.

Of course, 2024 provides a small sample size. What happens when we go back to the 2023 season and put Santana’s time between the Pirates and the Brewers in context? 

Player	Team	Opportunities	TiH	TiH%
Cronenworth, Jake	San Diego	96	75	78.1%
Pratto, Nick	Kansas City	79	61	77.2%
Flores, Wilmer	San Francisco	73	53	72.6%
Cooper, Garrett	Miami / San Diego	74	53	71.6%
Gurriel, Yuli	Miami	73	51	69.9%
Abreu, José	Houston	141	97	68.8%
Noda, Ryan	Oakland	83	56	67.5%
Vaughn, Andrew	Chi White Sox	146	98	67.1%
Olson, Matt	Atlanta	169	112	66.3%
Walker, Christian	Arizona	158	103	65.2%
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir	Toronto	119	77	64.7%
Naylor, Josh	Cleveland	94	59	62.8%
Wade Jr., LaMonte	San Francisco	128	74	57.8%
Santana, Carlos	Pittsburgh / Milwaukee	175	99	56.6%
Díaz, Yandy	Tampa Bay	119	66	55.5%
Torkelson, Spencer	Detroit	120	62	51.7%
Lowe, Nathaniel	Texas	151	74	49.0%
Mountcastle, Ryan	Baltimore	112	53	47.3%
Casas, Triston	Boston	128	59	46.1%
Goldschmidt, Paul	St. Louis	161	73	45.3%
Tellez, Rowdy	Milwaukee	70	31	44.3%
France, Ty	Seattle	152	65	42.8%
Freeman, Freddie	LA Dodgers	160	67	41.9%
Smith, Dominic	Washington	164	66	40.2%
Alonso, Pete	NY Mets	163	62	38.0%
Rizzo, Anthony	NY Yankees	122	38	31.1%

Here we notice a few things. Firstly, Santana’s rate is notably higher so far this year than it was in 2023, only taking it to first base just over half the time (he also notably had the most opportunities for a TiH at 175). We also can see that for those with the most playing time—such as Matt Olson, Christian Walker, and José Abreu—a top rate ends up around 65-69%, which Santana currently sits just under for the season. The exception is Jake Cronenworth, who both this and last year is a league leader in TiH%. That might make sense—the former shortstop has been an elite second baseman for the team but currently finds himself over at first due to an influx of shortstop prospects on the team.

So, Santana has been "better" (more TiH-y, anyway) this year, but what can we expect career-wise? Santana began playing first base with regularity in 2015, so we can look at his historical TiH% with each team he’s played with:

Here we can see that once Santana got to a point of playing first base with some regularity, he has always been above-average in TiH rate. It seems to vary by team, and while we might speculate that the Guardians and the Mariners have above-average pitching (and thus create above-average TiH rates), nothing can explain Santana's monster 2021 season--wherein he Took It Himself on 92 of 122 opportunities (the Royals had an abysmal pitching staff that year).

But then there’s one last question: where does Carlos Santana rank among the Twins greats? Provus has been calling for the squad since 2011; surely he knows a high TiH-er when he sees one. This is where things are a bit surprising: 

Player	Opportunities	TiH	TiH%
Miranda, Jose	63	54	85.7%
Sanó, Miguel	170	132	77.6%
Arraez, Luis	51	39	76.5%
Cron, C.J.	118	86	72.9%
Cuddyer, Michael	172	117	68.0%
Vargas, Kennys	102	69	67.6%
Kirilloff, Alex	92	61	66.3%
Parmelee, Chris	117	75	64.1%
Santana, Carlos	54	34	63.0%
Colabello, Chris	51	30	58.8%
Morneau, Justin	639	354	55.4%

Santana ranks near the bottom in TiH Rate for Twins first basemen, notably lagging behind recent regulars like José Miranda and Luis Arráez (who has played notably less first base this year, but has a perfect 12 for 12 TiH Rate in 2024). However, Santana does rank behind both Minnesota greats, including Cory’s broadcast partner Justin Morneau, who put up a middling 55%. Does Cory mention it less when Glen Perkins or LaTroy Hawkins is in the booth instead? Perhaps Cory’s comments are meant to remind Justin how little he hustled in his career! (Justin, if you're reading this, this is also a joke. If Justin isn't reading this, though, screw him.)

We do have to finally ask: is there any value in TiH%? Are you more likely to win a Gold Glove with a high TiH%? That might require a further study to link up the quality of first basemen and other defensive metrics with their actual performance. On the other hand, TiH could also be described as the ultimate eyewash. After all, Freddie Freeman is considered one of the best first basemen in the game, and he has one of the lowest TiH rates in the game. Watch Anthony Rizzo make the game's most frequent, fluid, flawless feeds to pitchers a handful of times, and you could convince me that that toss is an art form as worthy of praise as the hustle and assertiveness of Taking It Oneself.

There's no reward for TiH, or for the pleasing parabola of a Rizzo flip—each way results in an out. But maybe it can tell us something a little about the stylistic choices of first base defense. If nothing else, it's a fun thing to file away, as a fan trying to get into closer contact with the game.

So here’s to you, Cory! You (mostly) got it right about Carlos. And we’ll be watching TiH% throughout the season, and we hope you will keep up as well.

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[Karbo]

I miss Dick! Provus is better than most though. I would like to hear if the corners are in or back, and which direction the wind is blowing. The stuff you don't see when the AB's are going. And where did he come up with the way he says Vazquez?

[Riverbrian]

As if the Mahle trade wasn't bad enough.

Now we've learned that we lost 7.6% TiH from Strand to Santana. 

[Matthew Taylor]

Incredible work on this. Loved every word and every graph!

[Whitey333]

I know it is hard to publish new and interesting articles each and every day but this is ridiculous.  A well written article but come on.  This is all we have to chat about?  One thing I will say is how much I miss Provus on the radio.  Since I'm one of the thousands that is unable to watch the Twins I have to put up with Atterberry and his continually mundane stories not related to tge game at hand.  He has a great voice, is extremely informative but never shuts up.  His color commentators, Perkins, Molitor, and Gladden are great and seem to pull him through.  I miss provus on the radio broadcasts.

[AceWrigley]

Bill Buckner wanted the pitcher to cover first on just about every grounder he had to field, especially later in his career due to his bad ankles. This would inflate his assist totals and at first glance would make it look look like he had great range, which he did as long as the ball was hit directly at him. Well, one time that didn't work out so good.

 

[AceWrigley]

Just looking at the picture of Santana above, has a man ever worn shorter baseball pants (excluding the White Sox '76 shorts experiment)?

[Dman]

To be honest I was curious about how often Santana took it himself.  I always thought the toss is what they were taught to do unless it looked like the pitcher got a late jump.  As the article stated it doesn't really matter either way as long as you get the out and one could argue there is more risk in a fumbled handoff than just taking it yourself.  At any rate thanks for finding some data as I wondered if he was an outlier.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I know it is hard to publish new and interesting articles each and every day but this is ridiculous.  A well written article but come on.  This is all we have to chat about?  One thing I will say is how much I miss Provus on the radio.  Since I'm one of the thousands that is unable to watch the Twins I have to put up with Atterberry and his continually mundane stories not related to tge game at hand.  He has a great voice, is extremely informative but never shuts up.  His color commentators, Perkins, Molitor, and Gladden are great and seem to pull him through.  I miss provus on the radio broadcasts.

It's an interesting article, and a specific thing I've thought about. The Twins have a few errors which have resulted from pitchers not catching or throwing the ball to first base this year. Every set of hands involved in the play is an increased risk of error from my standpoint. 1B more likely to run the ball back to first base rather than risk a toss/catch may have better results.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a defense freak, I love to watch good defense. But even I know that 1B is where you want a player to hit the snot out of the ball not how well he plays defense. I don't understand why so many put so much importance on defense at 1B & ignore the importance of defense at catcher, SS, CF & 2B. IMO it's ridiculous to sign Santana because of his defense.

[terrydactyls]

All those statistics are garbage.  The only reason a toss to the pitcher should be attempted is when the first baseman determines he can't beat the runner to the bag.  As a former first baseman, you prepare ahead of the pitch by assessing the batter's speed and the depth and distance from the bag at which you are playing.  And when the ball is hit, you factor in whether you moving towards or away from the bag, the velocity of the ball, and whether you will have to leave your feet o catch the ball.  Simple, eh?

[terrydactyls]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm a defense freak, I love to watch good defense. But even I know that 1B is where you want a player to hit the snot out of the ball not how well he plays defense. I don't understand why so many put so much importance on defense at 1B & ignore the importance of defense at catcher, SS, CF & 2B. IMO it's ridiculous to sign Santana because of his defense.

No one I know ignores the importance of defense at SS, CF & 2B.  Good defense at first base allows the rest of the infield to not stress about making a perfect throw.  You should never disparage the importance of solid defense at first base.  You can argue against the Santana signing because he can't hit, but not the defense.

[LambchoP]

Sure Santana plays good defense but first base is a bat first power position. Hopefully Miranda does well there, but if it's not going to be him long term I really think the Twins need a long term solution at first like Vlad or Alonzo...we could afford it if we could somehow find a way out of the garbage contracts like Vasquez Farmer Margot and Santana. Dump even two or three of these guys on someone else and there's the 20 million needed to sign someone who can be our new 1baseman power hitter.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I know it is hard to publish new and interesting articles each and every day but this is ridiculous.  A well written article but come on.  This is all we have to chat about?  One thing I will say is how much I miss Provus on the radio.  Since I'm one of the thousands that is unable to watch the Twins I have to put up with Atterberry and his continually mundane stories not related to tge game at hand.  He has a great voice, is extremely informative but never shuts up.  His color commentators, Perkins, Molitor, and Gladden are great and seem to pull him through.  I miss provus on the radio broadcasts.

Gladden carries Atteberry?  This has to be a joke, right?

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

No one I know ignores the importance of defense at SS, CF & 2B.  Good defense at first base allows the rest of the infield to not stress about making a perfect throw.  You should never disparage the importance of solid defense at first base.  You can argue against the Santana signing because he can't hit, but not the defense.

As a former community college first baseman I believe there is a difference between being a good defensive first baseman and catching and scooping balls thrown to them. Yes their is foot work involved around the base but being a professional baseball player should be able to catch a throw and with a little practice learn how to scoop based on where the throws are coming from.

[singlesoverwalks]

I'm glad you contributed this article because for some time I've been looking for an excuse to talk about how amazing Hrbek was at the underhanded toss to the pitcher covering first. Every time that play happened, Hrbek had the ball hovering in front of the pitcher at chest level exactly one step before the pitcher reached the base. It was uncanny. Go back and watch the '87 or '91 World Series (full games are on YouTube), you'll see it in action. So Hrbek was probably a low-TIH 1B. That is all. Thanks for the post.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

...As a former first baseman...

 

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

....You should never disparage the importance of solid defense at first base...

I think you might be slightly biased, lol.

That said, defense at 1B doesn't typically matter much because the range of defensive value isn't usually super wide due to the lack of different physical skills needed to play the position. The assumption for 1B is maybe like -8 to +7 or so, no matter who you put there. Having a guy who can't catch balls at 1B would be a problem so there's something which would matter, but 25-30pts of OPS = 10 runs or so. A lousy 1B with 50 OPS higher would still be a better play than a great first baseman. So sticking Carlos Correa at 1B vs. Carlos Santana would potentially have a marginal improvement in fielding statistics.

Defense at SS especially, and 2B and 3B has a tendency to stand out more because those positions require more skills. Arm strength, reaction time and acceleration are all components in the other infield positions and each additional skill means a potentially wider and wider gap between good and bad defense. Put a lousy 1B at SS and you'd literally probably see -40, but the very best SS might be +15.

Carlos Santana adds marginal value over Jose Miranda or Alex Kirilloff defensively. Whoever has the better bat is the better play, given no additional holes in the lineup to fill.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

As a former community college first baseman I believe there is a difference between being a good defensive first baseman and catching and scooping balls thrown to them. Yes their is foot work involved around the base but being a professional baseball player should be able to catch a throw and with a little practice learn how to scoop based on where the throws are coming from.

Tom Kelly was a fundamentals guy, and I think there were far, far more fundamentals managers back in the day. Pitchers forgetting to cover 1B or dropping balls was less common in 1990 than 2020. I think that's worth considering.

[David Maro]

The last time I looked Santana has played 1B for years.I would think he knows if and when he needs to toss the ball to the pitcher.The team has many other issues to be working on.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Carlos Santana adds marginal value over Jose Miranda or Alex Kirilloff defensively. Whoever has the better bat is the better play, given no additional holes in the lineup to fill.

Santana was brought in for his glove so the paid  baseball professionals disagree with you.

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

Wow, the comments sure are feisty, and instead of responding to all of them individually, I'll just say everything here. 

1) This is a really interesting article and I'm impressed with the data you were able to find. 

2) Provus' way of saying Vázquez is correct. The other way that we're used to is anglicized. I'm more bothered that he's saying Duran differently than Jhoan Duran says it. 

3) 1B defense absolutely matters, it's just that teams deemphasized it for decades when they had a slugger there.  

4) I'm sure 1B have a higher TIH% in past years when there was less shifting. I'd be curious to know how it's changed from pre-exaggerated shifts to exaggerated to shift restrictions.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Santana was brought in for his glove so the paid  baseball professionals disagree with you.

No he wasn't. He was brought in because Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff both had late season/offseason shoulder surgery and because nobody else in MLB wanted Carlos Santana on their roster so the Twins only had to pay him $5MM. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

No he wasn't. He was brought in because Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff both had late season/offseason shoulder surgery and because nobody else in MLB wanted Carlos Santana on their roster so the Twins only had to pay him $5MM. 

If you so believe so be it, to you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A shoutout to @Peter Labuza, as this piece was mentioned by Provus on today's Twins broadcast!