Welcome to the Correaissance

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last offseason, the Minnesota Twins just about fell sideways into a long-term reunion with shortstop Carlos Correa. With two previous deals falling apart, he returned to Minnesota. Plantar fasciitis derailed his 2023 campaign, clouding his future. Two months into the 2024 season, though, he couldn’t look more like the star Derek Falvey expected to get.

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

It was a surprise when he landed in Minnesota in 2022. That he came back in 2023, with nine more years of team control beyond that, seemed almost too good to be true. Then, when a foot injury slowed him virtually all season, the frustrations toward a guy twice passed over for health reasons mounted. Maybe "too good to be true" was right. Coming into spring training this year, Carlos Correa noted feeling entirely different. He was healthy and good to go.

Turns out, he was right.

Thirty-two games into his second season (he missed about three weeks with an intercostal strain in April), Correa owns an .817 OPS, good enough for a 134 OPS+. His on-base skills are back to an elite level, and he’s once again crushing the ball. All of this is taking place while he is back to playing incredible defense and leading a Minnesota team desperate for his presence. He isn’t quite tracking toward the 6.3 fWAR he posted during his last season with Houston, but at this rate, he should be well above his career averages.

Looking under the hood, it’s hard to find a place where Correa hasn’t made strikes. His walk rate is a career best, and his strikeout rate is just off a career low. His barrel rate is above 10% for just the third time in his career, and the quality of contact has generated an xBA of .298, 30 points higher than his actual batting average. The expected slugging and wOBA are also heavily to his favor, and as a savant of the numbers, you best bet he knows it.

When at his best, Correa is a line-drive hitter capable of over-the-fence power, but without depending on that to create positive value. His 32% ground ball rate is the lowest of his career, and the 32.6% line drive rate is the highest. That reverses a trend from last year, when part of the damage done by his injury seemed to be compromised drive off his back leg, leading to a lot of ground balls. Although the hard-hit rate has room to grow, he’s never generated less soft contact. He's locked in, making excellent swing decisions, chasing outside the zone at the lowest rate of his career and whiffing as rarely as ever. Pitchers have to come into the zone on him, and when they do, he's ready to punish them.

Even with his feet healthy again, he's no speed demon. Conservatism and a certain picking of spots to turn on the jets have characterized his game for years. His sprint speed is up this year, though, and he's rangier on defense than he was throughout 2023. Although the metrics don’t speak of him as glowingly in the field, his arm talent remains elite, and it’s clear to see that he’s a different player in 2024.

Outside of a brief stint on the injured list, his body has cooperated in the exact ways he’d hoped it would. For a guy tightly attuned to his own health and visibly frustrated each time his body betrayed him last year, it has to be a great mental relief to feel better and be able to do what he knows he's capable of doing.

Correa will be an indispensable driver of the Twins' efforts to chase down the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals and regain their standing atop the AL Central. The pair of teams at the top of the division have been much hotter and luckier out of the gate, and they're not going to ease off the accelerator from here. Minnesota will need to do more to substantiate themselves as a competitor, but with a healthy Correa, they're capable of it.

The Twins already have one fragile would-be superstar, in Byron Buxton. That’s going to be a constant and nagging issue for the duration of his career. It wasn’t expected to be a similar situation for Correa, and now, it seems that 2023 was more of an outlier than an indication of the future. That couldn’t be a better development, for all involved.

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[LambchoP]

Sure he's an excellent defender. But is he worth 30 million plus per year to a team cutting costs? I mean he's on pace for what, 265 BA and 15hr? That is good, but elite? I'm not so sure. Either way, the Twins do need him to lead this team along with Lewis. With occasional help from Buxton.

[GNess]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Sure he's an excellent defender. But is he worth 30 million plus per year to a team cutting costs? I mean he's on pace for what, 265 BA and 15hr? That is good, but elite? I'm not so sure. Either way, the Twins do need him to lead this team along with Lewis. With occasional help from Buxton.

Yes, Correa is worth 30M in today's MLB economy. He is a star level player in multiple aspects of the game - contending teams need such players. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Sure he's an excellent defender. But is he worth 30 million plus per year to a team cutting costs? I mean he's on pace for what, 265 BA and 15hr? That is good, but elite? I'm not so sure. Either way, the Twins do need him to lead this team along with Lewis. With occasional help from Buxton.

is this satire?

Correa has an OPS+ of 133 as of 5/24. That's outstanding, especially at SS. From 1999-2023 guess how many times the Twins primary SS had an OPS+ of 130 or better? Once, by Carlos Correa in 2022. Number of times with an OPS+ over 120? Twice. (2019 Polanco). Number of times Twins SS had an OPS+ under 100 (aka, league average hitting)? 19 times. In 25 years before this season we had SS with an OPS+ above league average exactly 6 times (and half the time they were barely scraping over the line). 

The package of hitting and defense Correa brings is massive. I'm thrilled to have a top SS like Correa. he looks healthy this season and is playing great.

[Azviking101]

Correa’s current hitting metrics

that’s an elite hitter if he can stay in the field 

[tony&rodney]

We would all love to have a shortstop earning minimum salary who makes every play and is average with the bat. That is not in the cards. There is not a prospect in the system who approaches Correa in the field. It might not be incorrect to say that the Twins do not win last year and finish fourth this year without Correa. Carlos is a really good shortstop. His salary goes up next year and hopefully he maintains health, keeps making the plays, and hit at his current rate. Correa's contract has not been a problem thus far.

[Doctor Gast]

I've had & presently suffering from plantar fasciitis. I can tell you it's very painful. It's difficult to walk much less constantly putting pressure on it playing SS. It's difficult for me to fathom how he did it. He normally starts slow & his current production is very welcome & has been a rock in the absence of Lewis. Besides his hitting, his defense has been even more solid. I enjoy watching good defense over HRs any day.

IMO he's worth his $30MM price tag. A line drive clutch hitter that has power with elite defense. His greatest value cannot be measured by stats. He's great mentor, great feel for the game, great leader on & off the field & he kicks it into another gear when we need it down the stretch & into the postseason. A player that's needed if you want to advance.

[bean5302]

Correa was durable last year as well. The ONLY Twins player on the entire team to qualify with 135 games and 580 (504 required) plate appearances. Correa had a short stint on the IL this year for an unusual injury, and he's qualified his last 4 seasons before this one. I expect he'll qualify again this year as one of the most durable players in MLB at this point.

For all his skills at SS, and the unlimited accolades on Twins sites, metrics universally dislike his fielding. 
RF/9, UZR, DRS, OAA, even Total Zone runs... they're all average-ish to negative since joining the Twins. Correa makes spectacular plays when he can get to the ball, but his range is poor. He's probably more Derek Jeter than Ozzie Smith. That said, he's obviously the kind of highly skilled veteran who is perfect to anchor the Twins infield.

Correa is about worth his pay at the conventional $8MM per expected WAR rate. He even earned it last year based on his playoff performance alone.

[wabene]

The way he played through it last year until the division was wrapped, took a short break, then poured it on for the playoffs was eye opening. What a clutch leader. They don't break the streak without him.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Best all around shortstop in baseball. Means everything to the Twins.

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Best all around shortstop in baseball. Means everything to the Twins.

Witt Jr. has a 3.4 WAR as of today. Correa 0.9. Is Correa a better defender? Depends on who you're talking to. Correas range has   declined. But I'll say it again. He also doesn't have Altuve to his left or Bregman on his right. So he's hampered somewhat stats wise with Julien at 2nd and mostly Miranda at 3rd. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Best all around shortstop in baseball. Means everything to the Twins.

Short Stop with an excellent glove means every thing to the Twins.

[Reptevia]

Correa is on pace for around 10 HR’s and 40 Rbi’s. Sure it’s great to have an elite (ish) defender at SS. One of the best defenders we’ve had at SS since…probably Gagne. Worth $33M?  Not so sure, but I guess it’s not relevant, as that contract is already signed. Glad to see him in the lineup and relatively healthy. 

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Witt Jr. has a 3.4 WAR as of today. Correa 0.9. Is Correa a better defender? Depends on who you're talking to. Correas range has   declined. But I'll say it again. He also doesn't have Altuve to his left or Bregman on his right. So he's hampered somewhat stats wise with Julien at 2nd and mostly Miranda at 3rd. 

Correa is not Bobby Witt Jr. - Jr. is what people thought of correa in 2017……. more upside. Correa is still very valuable and a big contributor in all aspects.

Don’t understand how Julien & Miranda/etc. have anything to do with Correa’s skills, capabilities at SS? ……”hampered, stats wise”???

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Correa is on pace for around 10 HR’s and 40 Rbi’s. Sure it’s great to have an elite (ish) defender at SS. One of the best defenders we’ve had at SS since…probably Gagne. Worth $33M?  Not so sure, but I guess it’s not relevant, as that contract is already signed. Glad to see him in the lineup and relatively healthy. 

because RBIs are a relevant stat. (not that it really matters, but your pace is way off unless you're assuming Correa misses significant time again the rest of the season) 

You've said yourself that he's one of the best defenders we've had since Gagne (who last played for the Twins in 1992); the only other one in this range was Simmons, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. He's the best hitter we've at at SS in franchise history (Smalley is the only other real contender). 

I would argue that any downgrade in his defense is based on the rules change that forces the infielders to position themselves on the dirt. He's been penalized by the league, but hasn't actually gotten any worse. It's too bad, because his arm is awesome at SS and he could make plays on guys who were sure that they were going to beat out the grounder, and they took some of that away to...get more soft singles and give an advantage to fast infielders who can't throw? Banning the shift was fine, expanding the bases and limiting pickoffs to invigorate the running game worked, but telling infielders with great arms they can't play back is dumb.

 

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Correa is not Bobby Witt Jr. - Jr. is what people thought of correa in 2017……. more upside. Correa is still very valuable and a big contributor in all aspects.

Don’t understand how Julien & Miranda/etc. have anything to do with Correa’s skills, capabilities at SS? ……”hampered, stats wise”???

My response was to the "best all around SS in baseball" He isn't the best all around SS in th AL Central.  I don't know how defensive metrics are measured. But Juliens inability to turn double plays. Does that affect Correas stats. And the fact he may have to cheat one way or the other. That doesn't hurt? I don't know.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

My response was to the "best all around SS in baseball" He isn't the best all around SS in th AL Central.  I don't know how defensive metrics are measured. But Juliens inability to turn double plays. Does that affect Correas stats. And the fact he may have to cheat one way or the other. That doesn't hurt? I don't know.

A poor fielding or weak armed 2B would hurt a SS's stats a bit. Not OAA, which purely looks at athleticism, but things like UZR, DRS, TZ, and RF use putouts + assists or double play rate in calculating defensive value.

Bobby Witt, Jr. is possibly the best defensive shortstop in baseball right now. OAA +10, UZR/150 +4.8, but it's being held back by the "range" component of UZR so that will probably shift positive over time. Witt's also one of the best hitting SS's in MLB right now. Real MVP candidate at this point.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

A poor fielding or weak armed 2B would hurt a SS's stats a bit. Not OAA, which purely looks at athleticism, but things like UZR, DRS, TZ, and RF use putouts + assists or double play rate in calculating defensive value.

Bobby Witt, Jr. is possibly the best defensive shortstop in baseball right now. OAA +10, UZR/150 +4.8, but it's being held back by the "range" component of UZR so that will probably shift positive over time. Witt's also one of the best hitting SS's in MLB right now. Real MVP candidate at this point.

Can’t imagine a defensive metric being viewed with any sort of validity that drops a SS rating because the 2B has a weak arm or poor range??? Same comment/thought if the 3B isn’t up to par! How is that any measure of common sense?

Dave Concepcion is great next to Joe Morgan & he sucks next to Pete Rose????

bean - I get you don’t make the rules or constructs of these data sets but it just doesn’t fly in my head.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t imagine a defensive metric being viewed with any sort of validity that drops a SS rating because the 2B has a weak arm or poor range??? Same comment/thought if the 3B isn’t up to par! How is that any measure of common sense?

Dave Concepcion is great next to Joe Morgan & he sucks next to Pete Rose????

bean - I get you don’t make the rules or constructs of these data sets but it just doesn’t fly in my head.

So you still need 3 outs per inning so even if you have a crappy 2B who can't turn double plays, it just increases the chance the SS gets an additional chance to field another ball that inning. That would lead to an additional putout or assist for the SS. I can't say how much wiggle room there is in the statistics.

[NotAboutWinning]

Set aside all the obtuse baseball statistics, and just watch him play! Physical abilities, baseball IQ and leadership. He is absolutely worth $30 million. Just imagine what the Twins would look like with a pitcher and an outfield bat to match! Totally doable if they had a league-average payroll 🙄🙄