The Much Improved AL Central

[stringer bell]

The 2024 season is approaching the quarter pole and it appears that the much maligned AL Central is much improved in 2024. Despite the Chicago White Sox sporting one of the worst records in baseball, the AL Central has a net winning record, eight games above .500 and the division is +42 in run differential.

The Twins were the biggest favorite in the American League (according to betting lines) coming into the season and at eight games over .500 they are performing as expected over the first quarter of the season. The surprise is in the other teams. Cleveland is coming off a losing season, didn't spend much on improving their team and still they are atop the division at this point with a 24-15 record. Kansas City had an active off season, adding arms and spending some money to enhance their young base. The Royals have surprised baseball so far with a 24-16 record. Detroit added pitching and hitting to a team that seemed on the rise in 2023. They have hit a rough patch and sit at .500 (19-19). 

I have enclosed a poll for the Twins Daily faithful to post their opinion of who is the biggest threat to a Twins' repeat as division champions. I think the Twins should remain the favorite, but the improvement of everyone but Chicago will make this an interesting race deep into September.

[JD-TWINS]

I like the Royals veteran pitching additions……Lugo & Wacha & reliever Will Smith.

Ragans and Singer are very good young arms!

Salvador Perez may flame out, but if he doesn’t…….he’s an MVP vote getter ………Witt could win MVP! They look good collectively and I think they are an above .500 club for sure!

The Guardians cannot sustain everyone having success cumulatively!! Kwan is out for a month - they will level out. Their pitching will keep them competitive, so they are the 2nd worry.

Detroit is counting on Maeda & Flarhety and it’s not happening over a 6 month season. Quick start and now are at, where they will finish, around .500.

The Twins too will not continue to play .850 ball as they have over last 20 games, surprise! Anyway, I do not see the Twins drifting below a .500 record from now to mid-June. Meaning, they are still 8 games over .500 by June 15. Another roughly 30 games between then and now…….,predicting 38-30. That’s a 90-91 win pace…….Then Lewis comes back!!!

When is Lee healthy, Stewart healthy, Topa healthy, & will Wallner come around - few big questions!

[wabene]

I voted for Cleveland because KC and Detroit are KC and Detroit, lol. But if the choice was available, I would say Cleveland and KC are about equal threats to the Twins who I still consider the favorites. I agree with JD on the Kitties. All three are much more fun to watch than usual, which I appreciate. The biggest threat to all these teams are injuries, which could change the calculus here. 

I hope this continues, I for one wouldn't mind putting the comments about our weak competition to rest for a while. 

This is going to be another fun ride this season. Just like last year we are seeing young guys come up, really contribute and inject some good energy into this thing. It is a good time to be a Twins fan.

[bean5302]

No challenge for the Twins this year. Things will come back down to Earth for the other opponents.
Batters wRC+
MIN 108 (9th)
CLE 103 (13th)
KCR 97 (20th)
DET 90 (24th)
CHW 73 (30th)

Starters FIP
KCR 3.52 (5th)
DET 3.54 (7th)
MIN 3.59 (8th)
CLE 4.41 (24th)
CHW 4.57 (26th)

Bullpen FIP
CLE 2.65 (1st)
MIN 3.56 (10th)
DET 3.89 (14th)
KCR 4.15 (19th)
CHW 4.98 (28th)

Honestly, with the loss of Bieber, Cleveland is cooked IMHO. Even if their bullpen has been great so far, their starters are struggling and Twins fans know how that works out over the long haul. Relievers wear down. With their best hitter out of the lineup for the next month, and some expected regression, I just don't think Cleveland has the long term horsepower to get it done.

The Tigers should just DFA/release Javier Baez. He's really hurting that team. I think they're the most dangerous of the teams in the AL Central, but unless something changes, I think they'll keep declining over the season.

[UpstateNewYorker]

Interesting article about the Guardians and their rookie coach; the author (Tom Verducci) thinks they are for real: https://www.si.com/mlb/the-guardians-have-gone-retro-and-its-working-01hxhd9j2k5x

[Schmoeman5]

Sure this is all good to speculate.  Before the season. It was supposed to be a cakewalk. KC Cleveland and Detroit aren't going away. Twins have caught fire. Yet I say they have as much chance of falling back as ANY of those other 3. The reason I say that is simple. If they lose Ober,  Ryan, or Lopez for any length of time they're going to have trouble filling those roles. SP depth. They're hoping SWR will fill that 5th spot but that's not a given. So what happens if anything happens to 1 of the first 4. Not being negative. The season is long. A lot can and will happen to all 4 teams between now and October. I see a dogfight till the end. Similar to 1967. That would be pretty exciting in my book.

[USAFChief]

KC looks legit to me. Witt is really, really good. I'll say they're the biggest worry.

Although any of Cleveland, KC, or Detroit could win 87-ish games, which is a threat.

[Brandon]

I don't think the other teams have the kind of depth the Twins do to protect from having injured players.  I think a key injury or two will torpedo the competition over the long haul.  

[RpR]

A injury/ies can cripple the Twins just as quickly.

[Linus]

On 5/11/2024 at 11:39 AM, Schmoeman5 said:

Sure this is all good to speculate.  Before the season. It was supposed to be a cakewalk. KC Cleveland and Detroit aren't going away. Twins have caught fire. Yet I say they have as much chance of falling back as ANY of those other 3. The reason I say that is simple. If they lose Ober,  Ryan, or Lopez for any length of time they're going to have trouble filling those roles. SP depth. They're hoping SWR will fill that 5th spot but that's not a given. So what happens if anything happens to 1 of the first 4. Not being negative. The season is long. A lot can and will happen to all 4 teams between now and October. I see a dogfight till the end. Similar to 1967. That would be pretty exciting in my book.

I think you nailed it. The Twins will eventually emerge as the best team IF nothing happens to Lopez Ryan or Ober. If one of those guys gets seriously hurt then I don’t think we will prevail. Our starting pitching is paper thin. 

[laloesch]

I think it's going to continue to be a battle between the Royals, Guardians, and the Twins for the top of the division.  Kansas City has had tremendous pitching so far and they have young starters that are tearing it up.  To me they look to be for real although the Orioles beat up on them during that previous series. 

Down the stretch I think it's going to be a battle of KC and the Twins for second place unless the Guardians cool off in the coming weeks.  It should be interesting as they have a 3 game set at Texas, before the Twins come to town for three, followed up by NY. 

I have no idea who wins it at this point.  The Twins have been red hot these last six series, but will see how they perform in the coming weeks when they play the Yankees and then the Guardians.    

[chpettit19]

My stance remains that this division comes down to who's young guys can find the best consistency over 162 games. Cleveland currently scares me the most because I actually think their starting pitching is going to figure it out and get back to closer to their norm, and I don't think their hitting is going to drop that far. They have some big time young prospects who are going to push for jobs as the year goes on. If a couple of them figure it out I think they're going to give the Twins everything they can handle in this division.

[KirbyDome89]

The Sox are clearly worse than last year. I think Detroit finishes with a worse record than 2023 as well. KC isn't going to lose 106 games but I think there's a correction coming their way. Cleveland is the wildcard. I'm more interested to see whether they can maintain average offensive production for the entire season. I know their pitching is erratic at the moment, but I guess I have more faith that'll work itself out. I honestly don't know what to think about the Twins at the moment. They're hot, which is great, but their lineup still has massive question marks, and as has already been pointed out, they need last season's SP luck again. 

All in, the division is better with KC not being a doormat and Cleveland being a tbd team rather than one struggling to stay at .500. This feels like the ALC we know and love, mediocre at best, but not historically awful. 

[Parfigliano]

Cle is a threat.  Rest are paper threats.

[Patzky]

On 5/12/2024 at 12:50 PM, RpR said:

A injury/ies can cripple the Twins just as quickly.

It already did.

[stringer bell]

I'm going to bump this thread (sans poll) and proclaim the Cleveland Guardians as the favorites to win the AL Central. They've improved greatly from within and it seems to be one of those years when they get all the breaks. Bad calls and close games have gone their way, but they are also getting contributions from beyond the top three or four players. The bullpen looks very good. 

By the All-Star break, the Guardians will have played all of their games against the Angels, Athletics, Rockies and  Marlins and will have played 10 of their 13 games with the White Sox and two of four vs. the Reds. These clubs are six clubs at least 10 games under .500 at this point. The Guards schedule gets tougher after the break, but they've demonstrated enough quality that they would seem unlikely to have a long losing streak.

From my Twinscentric point of view, Minnesota needs to match or be slightly better against the rest of MLB than the Guardians and reverse the matchup with Cleveland.

[insagt1]

I know there has been a lot of non-love here for Luis Arraez...particularly his very modest defense. I still find it hard to believe a team like the Twins, who have so many hitting deficiencies...especially their inability to put bat on ball with runners on base, couldn't find SOMEPLACE for a guy hitting near .350 with an OBP of .450 and who strikes out once every leap year. Its not like the Twins infield is loaded with all-stars. Having a guy in the lineup who gets on base regularly is such an asset. Still not convinced the trade has benefited them as much as they had hoped. Hitters like Arraez are a rarity, yet it just seemed to me that Twins (and many here) chose to focus not on his strengths but on a weakness that won't cost the team as many games as people may think. Outside of Correa where exactly is the Twins 'stellar' infield taking them?

I know that ship has sailed but I'm not sure it should have. Twins offense is not in good shape this season. They won 12 straight against bottom feeders. They have yet to win a game against a good team..12 losses ironically.Its all hindsight, but I wish they had a hitter or two you could count on to make contact, or lay one down, instead of swinging and missing with RISP.

And while I'm ranting (because I know there will be the inevitable pushback on this) yes, I'm concerned about Duran. If he can't get the job done with games on the line, who is???

[bean5302]

I stick by my assessment of the division. Twins are the favorites, but the Royals have moved into a dangerous position. Their rotation appears ultra elite. Tough to make up ground on a team which is turning it over to the bullpen having allowed 2 or fewer earned runs 36 of 49 starts (73%) for their top 5 starters...

Cleveland will implode. They're off to an epic start for sure, but their starters are very poor. 26th in FIP this year. Terrible starters with an epic bullpen means a worn down bullpen that falls apart. We've seen it here in Twinsland. Even their bullpen has an xFIP 0.50 higher than ERA. Kwan (hurt) and Fry are both 50pts ahead of their xwOBA and Ramirez is 100pts over. I don't think their bats will keep up, and with their starters being rough and a bullpen seeming destined to break down from over use, I just don't believe the Guardians are legitimate at all.

For the Royals, Witt, Jr.'s now a legit MVP threat. Their only other great hitter is... Salvador Perez???? Who saw that coming? Not me. He's never been good at the plate for a full season before so I'm not sure what's in the water that's causing the Royals stadium to start spalling concrete, but maybe Perez is drinking it? 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I stick by my assessment of the division. Twins are the favorites, but the Royals have moved into a dangerous position. Their rotation appears ultra elite. Tough to make up ground on a team which is turning it over to the bullpen having allowed 2 or fewer earned runs 36 of 49 starts (73%) for their top 5 starters...

Cleveland will implode. They're off to an epic start for sure, but their starters are very poor. 26th in FIP this year. Terrible starters with an epic bullpen means a worn down bullpen that falls apart. We've seen it here in Twinsland. Even their bullpen has an xFIP 0.50 higher than ERA. Kwan (hurt) and Fry are both 50pts ahead of their xwOBA and Ramirez is 100pts over. I don't think their bats will keep up, and with their starters being rough and a bullpen seeming destined to break down from over use, I just don't believe the Guardians are legitimate at all.

For the Royals, Witt, Jr.'s now a legit MVP threat. Their only other great hitter is... Salvador Perez???? Who saw that coming? Not me. He's never been good at the plate for a full season before so I'm not sure what's in the water that's causing the Royals stadium to start spalling concrete, but maybe Perez is drinking it? 

I also think KC is better than Cleveland, and probably better than the Twins.

You're seriously underestimating Sal Perez, BTW.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

These still look like a group of .500 teams in this division, to me. 

Cleveland, like the Twins, sure has done a good job piling up wins against weaker teams. However, I don’t think they can patch their rotation together all season. Some of their bullpen guys have stepped up, and they will get Kwan back at some point. Though, if Gavin Williams comes back healthy, that would really give them a boost. So the Guardians are logical favorites.

Detroit and KC have strong pitching like the Twins but I think are still too young and inexperienced with their everyday players to make a run. (Except for Salvi, who is not doing a Miguel Cabrera imitation.) KC could stick around this summer too. 

The Twins are currently about +280 to win the division, bet 100 to win 280. Almost 3-1 money. Not saying they are sure to win it but those are great odds to take if you are a betting kind of person. 

[tony&rodney]

On 5/24/2024 at 1:19 PM, insagt1 said:

I know there has been a lot of non-love here for Luis Arraez...particularly his very modest defense. I still find it hard to believe a team like the Twins, who have so many hitting deficiencies...especially their inability to put bat on ball with runners on base, couldn't find SOMEPLACE for a guy hitting near .350 with an OBP of .450 and who strikes out once every leap year. Its not like the Twins infield is loaded with all-stars. Having a guy in the lineup who gets on base regularly is such an asset. Still not convinced the trade has benefited them as much as they had hoped. Hitters like Arraez are a rarity, yet it just seemed to me that Twins (and many here) chose to focus not on his strengths but on a weakness that won't cost the team as many games as people may think. Outside of Correa where exactly is the Twins 'stellar' infield taking them?

I know that ship has sailed but I'm not sure it should have. Twins offense is not in good shape this season. They won 12 straight against bottom feeders. They have yet to win a game against a good team..12 losses ironically.Its all hindsight, but I wish they had a hitter or two you could count on to make contact, or lay one down, instead of swinging and missing with RISP.

And while I'm ranting (because I know there will be the inevitable pushback on this) yes, I'm concerned about Duran. If he can't get the job done with games on the line, who is???

If one wants to turn back the clock by 18 months it might be a good idea to think about something more meaningful than a baseball trade.

The Twins traded Rod Carew too. 

How would rate Falvey?

Life move on.

[insagt1]

OK--expected snarky comment. That seems to happen a lot here. Simply an observation. I liked the guy. Clearly you didn't or that comment would not have been made. I have always thought its nice to have a guy on your team that rarely strikes out.  Its interesting that as of now, Lopez is not having a stellar season, which is disappointing. Arraez was traded again. He's doing OK. Twins did what they felt they needed to do. I'm just a fan.

[USAFChief]

Bump.