Simeon Woods Richardson: The Latest Testament to the Minnesota Twins Pitching Pipeline

[Road trip]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

2015 – Moran, Stashak

2014 - Nick Burdi, Sam Clay, Jake Reed, John Curtiss, Trevor Hildenberger

2013 – Aaron Slegers

2012 – Berrios, Luke Bard, JT Chargois, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers

Added a few years

That 2013-2015 run was brutal...and belongs to the previous front office.

[joefish]

SWR is on top of his game right now. I expect the league to adjust and figure him out, but I like his enthusiasm and confidence right now. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As I read this article, (and many articles for that matter), I feel like a lot of pent up Twins anger is coming out for people in the comments.  The cut in payroll. . . frustrating. . . I get it, but it isn't ruining my season of being a baseball fan and you shouldn't let it ruin yours.  The TV situation. . . also frustrating. . . but that doesn't really have to do with the players on the field.  Falvine bashing. . . I suppose, but what good does it do you. . . that's not always based in reality either.  In this case it has turned into a debate over the definition of "pipeline" and whether or not the acquisition/development of a pitching staff has followed a particular path, with outrage from some that we aren't drafting two or three pitchers a year who become successful major league starters.  If they can't do that then we're not going to give them any credit at all.  Spoiler alert:  We aren't doing it, and neither is anybody else. 

It is pretty inarguable that the Twins have one of the better rotations in their history during the past couple of years, and yet, we want to complain about how we got there.  Some were drafted (Ober, Varland, Jax, Sands).  Some were traded for young (Duran, SWR)  Some were traded for and developed a little more (Ryan).  Some trades became injury reclamation projects (Paddack). Some were already established (Lopez).  Does it really matter?  YMMV, but I would say that it doesn't matter at all.  We're in pretty reasonable shape at the moment, so I'm willing to accept it and be happy.  It could be (and has been) a LOT worse.  Imagine how hard we would have laughed a few years back if we were stressing over whether starter number 7 could handle it and who was next if he couldn't.  Lots of years we were worried if we had a competent third starter or even a number two sometimes.  Just for fun . . . who was the seventh starter in 1998?  2005?  2014?  2017?  How about in their best years. . . 1965?  1987?  1991?  If you can't even imagine who those names were, then that's exactly my point. 

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Just for fun . . . who was the seventh starter in 1998?  2005?  2014?  2017?  How about in their best years. . . 1965?  1987?  1991?  If you can't even imagine who those names were, then that's exactly my point. 

Can't pass up the opportunity to bring up the 1987 Joe Niekro emory board incident, a great moment in Twins history...   He was at the end of an illustrious ball scuffing career, and one of several desperation retreads the Twins tried that year (also a 60 year old Steve Carlton).  Watch the video, smile, and be happy 😁

 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

All of this debate about "pipeline" :  the word, what it means, institutional depth, etc...  There are some questions I am curious about:

1) Across the league, what is the % of home-grown pitching talent currently on each teams roster?  Probably broken down by: drafted, acquired as a MiLB, acquired as a MLB, signed as a FA.

2) Is the depth argument about MLB ready pitchers in the minors, or AAAA replacement pitchers ready to step in due to injury?  I would wager few to no MLB teams have anything of quality waiting in the minors except for untested prospects (hyped or not) or prospect projects (like Varland).

3) What are the expectations for an "acceptable pipeline"?  Volume (i.e. constantly pumping out SP3), quality (getting and SP1/SP2 every year), a combination of both?  Drafting or acquiring? A zillion other factors? (Yes this a hugely ambiguous question)

Personally, I don't really care.  I was mad they didn't sign Gray or Maeda.  I did not want 3/5 of the rotation to be question marks, with no real options behind them.  The returns thus far are mixed and I will wait to see how it plays out...  Every year is different, I just want the team to be in the mix every year.

Are you still mad they did not sign Maeda?

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

  In this case it has turned into a debate over the definition of "pipeline" and whether or not the acquisition/development of a pitching staff has followed a particular path, with outrage from some that we aren't drafting two or three pitchers a year who become successful major league starters.  If they can't do that then we're not going to give them any credit at all.  Spoiler alert:  We aren't doing it, and neither is anybody else. 

I

Yeah I think you are right.  It is simply an argument over the definition of "pipeline"  If the author simply states the Twins FO has assembled one of the better rotations in baseball there isn't much to argue about.  I never thought I would see the day that a Twins staff would lead the league in K's the first month or more of the season or even be in the top 5.  Development is happening.  Good coaching is happening.  I wouldn't argue those points.

Saying those players came from an established robust pipeline?  Yeah I have an issue with that.  If trades for vets using prospects etc are all pipeline assets and what not.  Just stop using the word pipeline as it has no meaning and then I think we all can get along just fine.  Make statements like acquiring pitching assets and what not, that is more in line with what they have been doing than creating a pipeline of talent.

I mean to me having a pipeline means you have something ready before it is needed.  To me that equates to getting minor league pitching ready for the majors.  Trades aren't a pipeline they are acquisitions. Things needed that your pipeline didn't produce.

 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It is pretty inarguable that the Twins have one of the better rotations in their history during the past couple of years

The pitching for the Twins has been really fun to watch recently and I enjoy their starting pitching. It doesn't make any difference to me where those guys come from and how their journey brought them to Target Field.

"..... their history ...." Slow down a little there. Maybe just go with "in awhile". The ghosts of 1970 and some others were pretty staunch in their day. From a wider point of view it isn't necessary to make these comparisons to appreciate the current pitching staff. We see the same out there opinions on Terry Ryan versus Derek Falvey or going back further even, Calvin Griffith versus Carl Pohlad. It is possible to laud a performance without making references or comparisons.

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, Road trip said:

That's an awfully high standard.  Plenty of teams will make the playoffs with less than that.  Rangers last year, top 5 starters for most of the year only had one guy with a FIP under 4 (Eovaldi).  They did add Montgomery late which certainly helped.  Their season turned out ok...

Ryan is a solid enough starter.  Not an ace, but a guy who is part of the rotation on any MLB team lucky enough to have him.  Call him a 2, a 3, a 4, whatever... just give him the ball every 5 days and he will put you in a position to win more often than not.

Regarding the "pipeline", sure, I wish there were more guys ready in the minors, but the caliber of Twins mlb pitching is so much better now than it was a decade ago.

 

 

Texas Rangers rotation last year for the World Series.
Nathan Eovaldi $17MM
Jordan Montgomery $25MM
Max Scherzer $43MM 
Andrew Heaney/Dane Dunning.

Those top 3 guys are not back end starters.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah I think you are right.  It is simply an argument over the definition of "pipeline"  If the author simply states the Twins FO has assembled one of the better rotations in baseball there isn't much to argue about.  I never thought I would see the day that a Twins staff would lead the league in K's the first month or more of the season or even be in the top 5.  Development is happening.  Good coaching is happening.  I wouldn't argue those points.

Saying those players came from an established robust pipeline?  Yeah I have an issue with that.  If trades for vets using prospects etc are all pipeline assets and what not.  Just stop using the word pipeline as it has no meaning and then I think we all can get along just fine.  Make statements like acquiring pitching assets and what not, that is more in line with what they have been doing than creating a pipeline of talent.

I mean to me having a pipeline means you have something ready before it is needed.  To me that equates to getting minor league pitching ready for the majors.  Trades aren't a pipeline they are acquisitions. Things needed that your pipeline didn't produce.

 

My pipeline has many valves and the flow can be restricted or augmented at many places along the line.

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Looking at pitching wins above average Joe Ryan has 1.1 - just slightly above average for 4 seasons. Slightly above average has to equal at least a #3 starter. Your scale does not match up with actual league performance - it would say that 2/3 of starting pitchers are below average.

Playoff caliber teams.

But apart from that, WAA/WAR is a pretty poor choice because it doesn't give you expected performance in game starts. It gives you performance over time/games pitched so by your method a 4.50 ERA pitcher with 600 innings has more value than a 3.00 ERA pitcher with 100 innings. I'd rather have the previously injured ace starting in the playoffs.
 

[KirbyDome89]

If you have to use 4 SWR starts this season as evidence of a "pipeline," then I'd argue you don't have one...

I've seen a lot of "why does it matter how they acquire pitching," comments throughout the thread. Falvey's pitch upon hire was building a sustainable winner. Consistently having to dip into FA, or trade for SP isn't sustainable for this organization. 

Also, naming the next X number of guys on the way up is something every other fanbase can do. Just go back a few years, guys like Winder, Balazovic, Thorpe, yada yada were all being talked about the same way. Quality is what's in question. 

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, Road trip said:

Can't pass up the opportunity to bring up the 1987 Joe Niekro emory board incident, a great moment in Twins history...   He was at the end of an illustrious ball scuffing career, and one of several desperation retreads the Twins tried that year (also a 60 year old Steve Carlton).  Watch the video, smile, and be happy 😁

 

Hahaha. Probably posted this before, but...I was at that game. We had seats in the upper deck between home and first, and we clearly saw the Emory board go flying.

Good times. 

[rv78]

To me, the "pipeline" is what is there, being developed in the minors, regardless of how they got there, (drafted or traded for). Any "MLB ready" pitchers regardless of how they got here are not coming from your pipeline. They are covering up for the deficit in your pipeline. PLopez, JRyan, CPaddack are not Twins pipeline pitchers. They were acquired to make up for the lack of pitchers in the pipeline, either quality or quantity wise or both by this FO. Without those 3 pitchers how good would we be able to say this FO has done building a pitching pipeline? I would say it has been a complete failure, Without Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda and Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan in 2023 how good would the team have been due to the "pipeline"? No need to go back any farther because there is no one that came from the pipeline. I also don't like to include relievers in the "pipeline" discussion because they are more often than not, starters that failed to become legit MLB starters. Why should pitchers drafted to be starters and failed, be considered part of a good pipeline? They just aren't. They had to take on another role that wasn't expected or desired of them. So we have 3 "pipeline" pitchers in Ober, Varland and SWR in 2024 starting games. Ober has been reasonably successful and has his spot secured in the rotation. Varland looks like he's destined for the bullpen which means he failed, and we have SWR who has thrown a total of 4 games which hardly leads to any solid evidence that he is going to be successful longterm. IMO, the pitching "pipeline" has consisted of a couple of drops and the end of the drought is no where to be seen.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Playoff caliber teams.

But apart from that, WAA/WAR is a pretty poor choice because it doesn't give you expected performance in game starts. It gives you performance over time/games pitched so by your method a 4.50 ERA pitcher with 600 innings has more value than a 3.00 ERA pitcher with 100 innings. I'd rather have the previously injured ace starting in the playoffs.

That's fine if you have one game left and you need to choose a pitcher but 4.50 ERA for 600 innings is definitely more valuable than 3.00 ERA for 100 innings if you're trying to play 3 seasons of baseball.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

… it took someone in the pipeline in Kyle Petty to acquire him

A great racing family! but I wouldn’t trust any of them to get through the order three times

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Varland can kill it for once through the order.  He has the potential to be Duran-like for one inning. 

This is partly why I mentioned Andrew Miller. I think Varland would work really well in that type of role, as a guy who comes in firing and pitches through 5 or 6 batters sometime around the 6th, 7th innings. I think that was the plan for Varland in the postseason last year but the games didn’t really pan out for that to happen.

[Fatbat]

If SWR continues his early success all season long, we will have a train of SP lined up for OCTOBER! 
 

The organization has done an admirable job in the last 6 years to develop a culture of SP development. It doesn’t matter if the kids were acquired via trade or draft. They are developing in the twins ORG.  Whoever said that Joe Ryan is essentially the same pitcher as he was when we traded for him is just plain wrong. Joe have developed 3 new pitches as a Twins.  He isn't even close to the same as he was 3 years ago.  He is still developing and growing his game as a TWIN. 

[Jocko87]

Is this an SWR article or a pipeline article?  

I  did a bunch of research on the Falvey pipeline in Cleveland and have made great strides getting more common acceptance of the actual makeup of that pipeline, ie majority trades for 22-24 year old AA/AAA types.  They are doing the same thing here.

If the difference between trading for a minor leaguer and writing his name on a draft card is the difference between a "pipeline" or not a pipeline, you are concerned about the wrong variables.  The is no practical or meaningful difference.  Just know that this team leads the major leagues in strikeouts and ask yourself, what are the chances any group of 2015 Twins pitchers could do that?

Also, good on SWR.  Keep it up. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Is this an SWR article or a pipeline article?  

I  did a bunch of research on the Falvey pipeline in Cleveland and have made great strides getting more common acceptance of the actual makeup of that pipeline, ie majority trades for 22-24 year old AA/AAA types.  They are doing the same thing here.

If the difference between trading for a minor leaguer and writing his name on a draft card is the difference between a "pipeline" or not a pipeline, you are concerned about the wrong variables.  The is no practical or meaningful difference.  Just know that this team leads the major leagues in strikeouts and ask yourself, what are the chances any group of 2015 Twins pitchers could do that?

Also, good on SWR.  Keep it up. 

Yes

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

A great racing family! but I wouldn’t trust any of them to get through the order three times

 

OMG did I type Kyle? 

That is obviously a mistake. 

I meant to type Tom. 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you have to use 4 SWR starts this season as evidence of a "pipeline," then I'd argue you don't have one...

I've seen a lot of "why does it matter how they acquire pitching," comments throughout the thread. Falvey's pitch upon hire was building a sustainable winner. Consistently having to dip into FA, or trade for SP isn't sustainable for this organization. 

Also, naming the next X number of guys on the way up is something every other fanbase can do. Just go back a few years, guys like Winder, Balazovic, Thorpe, yada yada were all being talked about the same way. Quality is what's in question. 

Have to agree that free agency and trading for established pitching is not sustainable.  That's definitely not what he or Cleveland has done.  The Guardians have produced (7) 92+ win teams in the past 20 years.  I don’t have their Pitching and Hitting separated.  However, in total players acquired as prospects produced more WAR for them than drafted players in all 7 seasons.   The 2007 club was the lowest at 32.9% of WAR coming from players acquired as prospects.  The other 6 years ranged from 43.9 to 76.3% .  They definitely built their teams through trades, but those trades were not for established players.  Many times they were players in AAA and ready or even already in the big leagues but not yet established. 

7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
	Cleveland 2017	102	22.9%	20.0%	43.9%	8.0%	5.0%
	Cleveland 2007	96	31.3%	36.5%	32.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2016	94	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2019	93	23.0%	18.0%	44.7%	14.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
	Cleveland 2022	92	26.8%	24.0%	49.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	19.0%	19.7%	49.6%	5.0%	6.7%

[Fire Dan Gladden]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you still mad they did not sign Maeda?

Yeah... I know that Maeda's numbers are bad this year, but you can't say with any certainty that he would have been bad in Minnesota.  Plus, signing Maeda would have shown that the Twins were trying to win this year.  Their lack of effort this offseason is probably where my anger is mostly aimed...

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have to agree that free agency and trading for established pitching is not sustainable.  That's definitely not what he or Cleveland has done.  The Guardians have produced (7) 92+ win teams in the past 20 years.  I don’t have their Pitching and Hitting separated.  However, in total players acquired as prospects produced more WAR for them than drafted players in all 7 seasons.   The 2007 club was the lowest at 32.9% of WAR coming from players acquired as prospects.  The other 6 years ranged from 43.9 to 76.3% .  They definitely built their teams through trades, but those trades were not for established players.  Many times they were players in AAA and ready or even already in the big leagues but not yet established. 

7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
	Cleveland 2017	102	22.9%	20.0%	43.9%	8.0%	5.0%
	Cleveland 2007	96	31.3%	36.5%	32.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2016	94	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2019	93	23.0%	18.0%	44.7%	14.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
	Cleveland 2022	92	26.8%	24.0%	49.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	19.0%	19.7%	49.6%	5.0%	6.7%

Separating pitching and hitting is where I'd start since this thread is about a pitching pipeline. 

Where are the arms ready to establish themselves so the Twins aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel for guys like Happ, Bundy, Archer, or Shoemaker to fill out a rotation? Why are they gambling on Tyler Mahle midseason, or making a move for Paddack, who also had know durability issues? Why are they trading for DeSclafani this offseason? The rotation has been healthy (sans the dubious DeSclafani gamble) this year yet they're one injury away from choosing between rushing Varland back for his 3rd shot at sticking or plugging in another washed up vet a la Keuchel last year. None of this touches on the players acquired via FA or trade in just the last few years that weren't disasters but fail to meet your criteria. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Interesting....3 former member of the "pipeline":

Chase Petty (really struggling in A ball)

Cade Povich (killing it in AAA)

Steve Hajjar (injured and struggling in A ball)

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Separating pitching and hitting is where I'd start since this thread is about a pitching pipeline. 

Where are the arms ready to establish themselves so the Twins aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel for guys like Happ, Bundy, Archer, or Shoemaker to fill out a rotation? Why are they gambling on Tyler Mahle midseason, or making a move for Paddack, who also had know durability issues? Why are they trading for DeSclafani this offseason? The rotation has been healthy (sans the dubious DeSclafani gamble) this year yet they're one injury away from choosing between rushing Varland back for his 3rd shot at sticking or plugging in another washed up vet a la Keuchel last year. None of this touches on the players acquired via FA or trade in just the last few years that weren't disasters but fail to meet your criteria. 

Where did I say anything about the fact the twins did these things?  I said that I agreed with the poster who suggested these practices were not sustainable so why are you are posing these questions to me.  I said Falvey / Cleveland did not rely on these practices in general which is supported by the historical information I posted.  Indirectly, I am saying Falvey has not done the same things here that Cleveland did when he was there or what Cleveland has done for the past 20 years.

BTW ... I was one of the few people here against the trade for Mahle.

[Linus]

This is an interesting topic to me. First the starting rotation has been excellent the last few years and even the bullpen this year. However I think it matters a lot how you get there. Getting there via trades almost exclusively means giving up valuable assets. If you draft and develop your starters you don’t have to do that plus you have the starters other teams want. Starting pitching is the best currency you can have in baseball. The Twins while doing well via the trade route have stunk drafting and developing starters with Ober being the only one to date (I’m talking proven MLB starters). I find this odd because the Twins have clearly been good at taking existing pitchers and making them better. Maybe it’s simply that they won’t use top picks on pitchers but it’s a strange dichotomy.