Larnach's Last Chance?

[stringer bell]

Trevor Larnach has been recalled after playing a couple of rehab games for the Mighty Mussels. Larnach is now 27 years old and his last minor league option was used to start this season. He was a first round draft choice out of college and has played part of three seasons for the Twins. There are prospects in the pipeline who would seem to have high ceilings that are also left handed hitting corner outfielders (Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins) so it would appear that this is Larnach's last chance to establish himself as a major leaguer with the Twins. 

Larnach has had a bunch of injuries and illnesses and has spent a fair amount of time on the Injured List, but has so far accrued just over 2 years of service time. In that time, he's batted .222 with a .699 OPS (95 OPS+) and has hit 20 homers in just under 700 plate appearances. Larnach will never be a Gold Glove outfielder, but I would say his defense is adequate for a corner outfielder. He's struck out over 33% of the time while drawing walks at a 11% clip. 

I do think this is Larnach's last. best chance to establish himself. He should get at-bats against right handed pitching and if he can raise his production, he would likely trade places in the Twins minds with Matt Wallner. I wish him good luck and good health.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Wow. Hard to believe he's 27 years old already. But, yeah. This is it for him. Hoping he can come through for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Nah. If he fails here, someone will sign him. He's likely better than what Chicago or Oakland is fielding....

[bighat]

His last chance with the Twins, certainly. 

A 27 year-old former 1st round draft pick who's playing in the minors isn't a "prospect" - he's a "bust". And let's not pretend the expectations were low for this guy: Back in 2021, 90% of the readers here were tattooing Larnach's name in the lineup for the next decade.

Turns out he can't hit a curveball. And guess what? If I know that, so do the Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox. 

Prediction: He'll hit below .150 and will be out of the organization by June 1st. 

[RpR]

IF he can put up Gallo type numbers like Julien has this year, his bat may keep him around for awhile.

[Schmoeman5]

20 hours ago, bighat said:

His last chance with the Twins, certainly. 

A 27 year-old former 1st round draft pick who's playing in the minors isn't a "prospect" - he's a "bust". And let's not pretend the expectations were low for this guy: Back in 2021, 90% of the readers here were tattooing Larnach's name in the lineup for the next decade.

Turns out he can't hit a curveball. And guess what? If I know that, so do the Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox. 

Prediction: He'll hit below .150 and will be out of the organization by June 1st. 

Then do him a favor. DFA or trade him now. I don't think he's good.

[stringer bell]

Larnach has less than 700 plate appearances. It has been often quoted that managers and coaching staffs need to see 1000 plate appearances before they know what they have. He has struck out 50% above league average while hitting homers slightly below league average. He does walk at a bit higher rate than league average. He definitely needs to put the ball in play at a higher rate and put more balls over the fence. How can he do that? Better recognition of pitches is one part, but he needs to do damage when he gets his pitch. 

I haven't given up on him yet, but I'm nearly certain he won't get any/many more chances with the Twins. He's their best hope right now to contribute.

[Linus]

I’m hoping for the best but unless he learns how to hit something other than a fastball he is likely done. It’s a story as old as baseball.  Abner Doubleday put 108 stitches on a baseball and some guys have struggled hitting those darn breaking pitches ever since. 

[Cris E]

He hasn't hit the breaking stuff well, he hasn't been 100% healthy for a lot of his career, and he's in an organization with some swift moving OF talent that's putting pressure on him. Some of this is bad luck, some is bad timing and the parts that are left is what he's got to work with to fashion a career in MN.

But that's OK. Rooker ran out of runway here and still managed to put some stuff together in OAK and the same sort of path lies before Larnach. If he can stay back on the breaking stuff, if he can stay strong and on the field, if his glove can justify his time on the grass, then he might be the one who can claim a spot and chase Kepler out of MN. But this is the last chance he has in this organization to do that. His work is cut out for him: he's hit before and he might again and it's time to step up.  Good luck Trevor, we could sure use you if you figure it out.

[Riverbrian]

If he is sent down this year. He will have no options remaining next year. 

He has to earn his job this year.

This is Larnach's last chance. 

[dxpavelka]

Old enough to remember when this guy was one of the reasons we let Eddie Rosario walk.  Damn.  I'm old.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Cris E said:

He hasn't hit the breaking stuff well, he hasn't been 100% healthy for a lot of his career, and he's in an organization with some swift moving OF talent that's putting pressure on him. Some of this is bad luck, some is bad timing and the parts that are left is what he's got to work with to fashion a career in MN.

But that's OK. Rooker ran out of runway here and still managed to put some stuff together in OAK and the same sort of path lies before Larnach. If he can stay back on the breaking stuff, if he can stay strong and on the field, if his glove can justify his time on the grass, then he might be the one who can claim a spot and chase Kepler out of MN. But this is the last chance he has in this organization to do that. His work is cut out for him: he's hit before and he might again and it's time to step up.  Good luck Trevor, we could sure use you if you figure it out.

I think he'll be fine.  As long as that only straight pitches rule gets implemented.

[stringer bell]

Larnach has looked very good in his first several games (SSS). Perhaps he can establish himself in what has been characterized as his last chance with the Twins organization.

[Schmoeman5]

OK. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

He looks really good thus far, which probably means he's due to step on a marble and break his tibula.

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Like Wallner had to earn it this spring? And don't give me any bull about, well who else were they going to bring up? The Twins have fumbled on Trevor several times in their handling of him. Last year they gave him cold and flu medication for Pneumonia. And then sent him packing afterwards. And that's after their misdiagnosis of a "sports hernia" Yeah that's a team I want to play for. And fans  here saying this is his last chance. I hope it is. Oh and his fellow players voted him a 1/2 playoff share. Led by Carlos (phony) Correa. Thanks for sharing those enlightened and knowledgeable insights

No not like Wallner had to earn it this spring. Wallner has two options remaining while Larnach has just one. Wallner has a little more time than Larnach does but his day will come just like it comes for everyone battling for a career. And don't hold your breath waiting me for me to give you any bull about "well who else were they going to bring up?". That isn't me... that has never been me. 

I have no knowledge of cold and flu medication or a misdiagnosis of a "sports hernia" and I also didn't bring that up... so if you must hammer me over the head for that... that's your approach.   

Larnach he has one option left. Your enlightened and knowledgeable insights about cold and flu medication, Twins mismanagement of handling of him aside. One option left is significant in the career of a baseball player trying to make a 26 man roster. It's a major check point in the career of baseball players.

Next year with no options he will have to make the 26 man roster, or be traded or be exposed to the remaining 29 teams. 

This year would be the year that he needs to display some major league ability to provide positive information to aid the Twins when decision time comes and decision time will be next year once that last option is burned. 

  

[stringer bell]

I'm going to put this in the Larnach thread (it does relate to Trevor directly) but this is a more general question:

Has Trevor Larnach's option for 2024 actually been used? Here is what I know. A player may be optioned, but that option doesn't count if a minimum number of days on option don't accumulate. Last year, Kirilloff was optioned after his rehab for his wrist, but within a day or two an injury occurred and he was recalled and it was reported that the option didn't count. 

This year, Larnach was optioned to St. Paul during Spring Training. He was placed on the minor league IL before the Saints season began and just completed his rehab (at Fort Myers) when he was recalled to replace Wallner. I don't know the minimum number of days a person has to be assigned to the minors in order for the option to be used, and I don't know if an uninjured player for player swap is different than replacing an injured player. I also know there have been occasions when an option was voided because the player was injured when he was optioned. I don't know if that was the case for Larnach. 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm going to put this in the Larnach thread (it does relate to Trevor directly) but this is a more general question:

Has Trevor Larnach's option for 2024 actually been used? Here is what I know. A player may be optioned, but that option doesn't count if a minimum number of days on option don't accumulate. Last year, Kirilloff was optioned after his rehab for his wrist, but within a day or two an injury occurred and he was recalled and it was reported that the option didn't count. 

This year, Larnach was optioned to St. Paul during Spring Training. He was placed on the minor league IL before the Saints season began and just completed his rehab (at Fort Myers) when he was recalled to replace Wallner. I don't know the minimum number of days a person has to be assigned to the minors in order for the option to be used, and I don't know if an uninjured player for player swap is different than replacing an injured player. I also know there have been occasions when an option was voided because the player was injured when he was optioned. I don't know if that was the case for Larnach. 

Interesting question... I'm not sure. Hopefully someone will post the answer. 

It'll be nice if he stays up the entire year and keeps that option. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm going to put this in the Larnach thread (it does relate to Trevor directly) but this is a more general question:

Has Trevor Larnach's option for 2024 actually been used? Here is what I know. A player may be optioned, but that option doesn't count if a minimum number of days on option don't accumulate. Last year, Kirilloff was optioned after his rehab for his wrist, but within a day or two an injury occurred and he was recalled and it was reported that the option didn't count. 

This year, Larnach was optioned to St. Paul during Spring Training. He was placed on the minor league IL before the Saints season began and just completed his rehab (at Fort Myers) when he was recalled to replace Wallner. I don't know the minimum number of days a person has to be assigned to the minors in order for the option to be used, and I don't know if an uninjured player for player swap is different than replacing an injured player. I also know there have been occasions when an option was voided because the player was injured when he was optioned. I don't know if that was the case for Larnach. 

Did you check roster resource?

[stringer bell]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did you check roster resource?

Fangraphs say one MiLB option remaining, but I presume that to be from the start of the 2024 season. 

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm going to put this in the Larnach thread (it does relate to Trevor directly) but this is a more general question:

Has Trevor Larnach's option for 2024 actually been used? Here is what I know. A player may be optioned, but that option doesn't count if a minimum number of days on option don't accumulate. Last year, Kirilloff was optioned after his rehab for his wrist, but within a day or two an injury occurred and he was recalled and it was reported that the option didn't count. 

This year, Larnach was optioned to St. Paul during Spring Training. He was placed on the minor league IL before the Saints season began and just completed his rehab (at Fort Myers) when he was recalled to replace Wallner. I don't know the minimum number of days a person has to be assigned to the minors in order for the option to be used, and I don't know if an uninjured player for player swap is different than replacing an injured player. I also know there have been occasions when an option was voided because the player was injured when he was optioned. I don't know if that was the case for Larnach. 

I believe the player needs to remain in the minors for 20 days to lose the option. I don't know how many days he was down, but it's got to be pretty close to that.

[ashbury]

MLB.com has a remarkably good glossary that covers topics like minor league options.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/minor-league-options

"Once an optioned player has spent at least 20 days in the Minors in a given season, he loses one of his options."

The game OOTP is usually pretty good with details like this, and lists Larnach as coming into the 2024 season with 2 minor league options remaining.  But looking at his seasonal game logs, I don't see how he didn't consume more than 1 option during the past few seasons.

The Twins' first game this season was March 28 and Larnach was called back up to the majors on April 16.  By my math, that's 19 days, but there could be technicalities as to when a "day" starts.  So it is possible that the FO made the move just under the wire and his option this year is preserved (for now).

Sorry, this isn't definitive, but maybe provides a few facts that help the thinking process.

[bean5302]

I don't think it matters whether or not Larnach has an option for the Twins. He's getting an opportunity, but the length of that opportunity probably depends on how Wallner continues to hit at AAA. Larnach's going to do all he can to convince the Twins (or another team) that Trevor can be a legitimate MLB outfielder, but it's probably going to depend on Wallner rather than Larnach himself. Larnach is like a 95% known quantity. Crushes fastballs, struggles against most breaking pitches and can't handle changeups. He's 27 now, but he'll probably get about 100 PA before he has to worry about anything at this point.

If Wallner doesn't rake for 20 games or so, I can't see the Twins making a move as Larnach is viewed as a depth/IL replacement guy at this point, and Wallner is still viewed as a prospect the Twins will invest in AAA correction time.

[LA Vikes Fan]

34 minutes ago, ashbury said:

MLB.com has a remarkably good glossary that covers topics like minor league options.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/minor-league-options

"Once an optioned player has spent at least 20 days in the Minors in a given season, he loses one of his options."

The game OOTP is usually pretty good with details like this, and lists Larnach as coming into the 2024 season with 2 minor league options remaining.  But looking at his seasonal game logs, I don't see how he didn't consume more than 1 option during the past few seasons.

The Twins' first game this season was March 28 and Larnach was called back up to the majors on April 16.  By my math, that's 19 days, but there could be technicalities as to when a "day" starts.  So it is possible that the FO made the move just under the wire and his option this year is preserved (for now).

Sorry, this isn't definitive, but maybe provides a few facts that help the thinking process.

Thanks, Very interesting and sounds almost intentional. It would be great if Larnach had two options. Makes him valuable both to the team nd in a trade. 

[stringer bell]

Larnach and Wallner were both born in the same year. It’s not like one guy is 22 and the other in his mid-thirties. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well said. There is room for one of them tp play regularly with the Twins.  It's harder to make it work with both since they are similar types of players and neither brings a lot of defensive value to the table. We may be witnessing a fight to the death to see who will remain with the MLB roster. After last year, it sure seemed clear that Wallner was the winner. Right now, Larnach is now back in the lead because he is hitting well in an incredibly small sample size and Wallner did not hit at all during last year's playoffs, spring training, or the first 15 games or so of this season. That can all change in a minute through an injury or hot streak. To me, the thought that Wallner is still "developing" into a long-term asset where as Larnach "is what he is" may turn out to be right, but certainly is not supported by the evidence now. Let's be honest, right now I'd rather have Larnach at the plate in an MLB game.  

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it matters whether or not Larnach has an option for the Twins. He's getting an opportunity, but the length of that opportunity probably depends on how Wallner continues to hit at AAA. Larnach's going to do all he can to convince the Twins (or another team) that Trevor can be a legitimate MLB outfielder, but it's probably going to depend on Wallner rather than Larnach himself. Larnach is like a 95% known quantity. Crushes fastballs, struggles against most breaking pitches and can't handle changeups. He's 27 now, but he'll probably get about 100 PA before he has to worry about anything at this point.

If Wallner doesn't rake for 20 games or so, I can't see the Twins making a move as Larnach is viewed as a depth/IL replacement guy at this point, and Wallner is still viewed as a prospect the Twins will invest in AAA correction time.

Wallner's Job is Larnach's to lose now. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Wallner's Job is Larnach's to lose now. 

Seems like Trevor wants that job

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach and Wallner were both born in the same year. It’s not like one guy is 22 and the other in his mid-thirties. 

This is a good point. Always interesting to me how fans will assign the 'young' or 'prospect' labels to certain players but not others. Yes, Larnach's had more big league opportunity than Wallner but not so much more so that its a closed book on Larnach - there's still upside here and he could turn into the player that he was projected to be.

[Major League Ready]

Larnach only played in 3 minor league games so he should have an option remaining.