Prove It: Two Former Top Twins Prospects Fighting for 2025 Roster Openings

[Cody Christie]

Change is a natural part of the game, and the Twins’ 2024 Opening Day roster looks very different from last year. Do two former top prospects have a path to roster spots in 2025?

Image courtesy of Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Organizations must balance present and future value when making roster decisions. Currently, the Twins have Max Kepler and Carlos Santana on expiring contracts, and it seems likely that the team will part ways with both players at the season’s end. Kepler will head to free agency for the first time after spending 15 years in the Twins system, and Santana’s age is usually associated with decreased offensive performance. The Twins could go outside the organization to fill those roles, but there are internal options with something to prove. 

The St. Paul Saints open their season this weekend with multiple current and former top prospects populating their roster. Many fans will turn their attention to some of the most prominent names in the Twins system, like Brooks Lee and David Festa. However, other prominent names on the roster have a chance to push themselves back into the team’s long-term plans. Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda have lost their prospect shine, and now it’s time to prove they have long-term value to the Twins. 

Trevor Larnach, OF
The Twins selected Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft after a tremendous college career at Oregon State University. He was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the 2020 and 2021 seasons, looking like he might be a middle-of-the-order hitter for multiple seasons. Larnach hasn’t transitioned his success in the upper minors to the big-league level. In nearly 700 PA, he has hit .222/.315/.385 (.699) with a 98 OPS+ and a 33.6 K%. His 2023 season will also be delayed as he will start the year on the Triple-A IL with a turf toe injury. 

What Must He Prove?
Larnach is getting dangerously close to being categorized as a Four-A player, a player who can succeed at Triple-A but can’t translate that success to the big leagues. For his career, he has a .822 OPS in 96 Triple-A games while posting a .888 OPS last season for the Saints. His biggest issue at the big-league level has been making consistent contact with breaking pitches. In 2024, he posted a .489 SLG against fastballs, but his SLG dropped to .290 versus breaking pitches. At Triple-A, it’s hard for him to improve against these types of pitches because he sees pitchers with inferior stuff compared to the MLB level. Can he escape being categorized as a Four-A player and start hitting breaking pitches more consistently?

José Miranda, 1B/DH
Miranda was set to take over the full-time third base role in 2023, with the team trading Gio Urshela to clear a path at the hot corner. He had posted a 114 OPS+ during his rookie season, which included 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Last season, he battled a shoulder injury during spring training, and the injury lingered during the regular season. In 40 games, he hit .211/.263/.303 (.566) with seven extra-base hits and a 56 OPS+. His season ended with shoulder surgery, and he watched other players pass him on the team’s depth chart. Now relegated to first base, he has multiple things to prove. 

What Must He Prove?
Miranda was supposed to be the team’s third baseman of the future, but other players seem better suited for that role. The Twins are having him focus on first base, a position where he started fewer than 40 games in the minors. First base has some defensive nuances to learn with footwork and scooping that comes with more experience at the position. He must also show that his offensive performance matches that of a first baseman or designated hitter. Both positions have high expectations for hitters, so he needs to return to where he was in 2022. Can he adjust to first base and reemerge as an offensive threat? 

Kepler and Santana aren’t going anywhere this season, but Larnach and Miranda can make things uncomfortable for the front office if they perform well. The two veterans aren’t part of the team’s long-term plan, but there is hope that the former top prospects will respond this season and prove they belong. 

Can either player be part of the team’s long-term plans? Which player will have the best 2024 campaign? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

They will both get another chance, both could still make a difference. IMO Miranda has the best chance at 1st. Larnach will have some competition in the OF.

[Mark G]

Miranda has always crushed minor league pitching, up to, and including AAA.  It is the bigs that test him.  I would be surprised if he didn't perform extremely well in St. Paul, and I hope he gets another shot and finally succeeds.  

Larnach has always had good power, and is a nice threat to have in the lineup, if he can lay off the breaking balls he seems to flail at far too often.  I would love to see him come up again, as well, and come to his true potential.  

I seem to remember a certain first baseman, who shall remain nameless but pontificates on Twins broadcasts regularly, getting sent down early in his career before he finally came around and became one of the best hitters we had.  I wish Miranda and Larnach the same success; we could use them at their best.  

[mikelink45]

I feel like Larnach needs a Rooker opportunity.  A team like the A's or Nationals can give him the playing time he needs to prove himself.  Neither of these players look like prominent role players with Lee and Martin both well ahead of them. 

The one hesitation I have here is the OF - without Kepler who is out there?  I do like Kiriloff and Wallner flanking Buxton with Castro behind them - sorry Margot I have not seen enough of you to become a fan yet.  Otherwise I do not know who in the minors will be pushing for an OF spot unless Jenkins comes up as quick as Wyatt Langford did  or Rodriguez are ready.  If they are there is no place to put Larnach. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I believe signing Margot at $4,000,000 was a mistake. So far his fielding has been below average (he made a terrible play and throw in a spring training game I attended) and his batting average in spring training and so far in the major leagues in 2024 speaks for itself. This money could have been better used on pitching.

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I still have hope in Miranda to shine at 1B. Larnach had a great '23 spring training & 1st part of the regular season until MLB pitchers found that chink in his armor. IMO he won't be able to have the luxury of having enough duration of time at the MLB level to correct his weakness with the Twins. He'll need to be traded to a team that can afford him the time to spend at the MLB level to correct his problem.

[MinnInPa]

Larnach just K's waaay too much..as do most TWINS. Twins need more players to put the ball in play..so frustrating watching 1st two guys get on base followed by 2 K's and a ground out. I wouldnt have a problem at all if Baldelli even started bunting one of so called superstars , Buxton, Correa,  if the first two batters in front of him got on with no outs. cut down on the K's Twins !! this team is so hard to watch

[TwinsDr2021]

58 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I believe signing Margot at $4,000,000 was a mistake. So far his fielding has been below average (he made a terrible play and throw in a spring training game I attended) and his batting average in spring training and so far in the major leagues in 2024 speaks for itself. This money could have been better used on pitching.

 

 

It is only 4 games, but if you remove Lewis's 2 at bats. Margot leads the team in AVG, 2nd in OBP, 4th in SLG, and 3rd is OPS, compared with the part time 1B they signed for more, that 4 million doesn't look so bad?

[killertwinfan]

If Larnach figures out off speed pitches, look out!

[TwinsDr2021]

Larnach has to hope he gets a chance at some point this season and does really well, because if not he will be 28 at the start of next season and more likely than not will fall into the Andrew Stevenson relm of players.(Why would the Twins go to Arb with a 28 year old minor league guy)

Miranda on the other hand was just an average minor league player until he broke out big time at age 23 season, so I hope last year was because of injury and gets back into the groove this year and re-establishes himself, 25 is not too old and he is barely less than a year older than Martin.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

I seem to remember a certain first baseman, who shall remain nameless but pontificates on Twins broadcasts regularly, getting sent down early in his career before he finally came around and became one of the best hitters we had.  I wish Miranda and Larnach the same success; we could use them at their best.  

The biggest difference between these two and said first basemen was he was 22 and 23 and was established major league player by 24 and a MVP at 25, so not really at all comparable.

[4twinsJA]

MLB pitchers can throw their breaking pitches for strikes. Larnach will have to develop ability to hit breaking pitches, it might be the only pitches he sees in an AB.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I believe signing Margot at $4,000,000 was a mistake. So far his fielding has been below average (he made a terrible play and throw in a spring training game I attended) and his batting average in spring training and so far in the major leagues in 2024 speaks for itself. This money could have been better used on pitching.

They got Margot in a trade, not as a free agent signing. I'm not sure what people expect for $4M. For that price you will get below average players. Average players get over $10M a season.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They got Margot in a trade, not as a free agent signing. I'm not sure what people expect for $4M. For that price you will get below average players. Average players get over $10M a season.

The Twins seem to expect more for $4M. Well at least they expect more for $5.25M since they signed Santana to be their everyday 1B for that. That's my problem with it.

I don't like that they sign, or trade for, multiple guys in that 4-10 million range instead of bundling those salaries for the guys making more and going with the below average players that cost 740k a year (I believe that's the league minimum). I'd much rather the Twins carry Miranda for as little as possible than carry Santana for $5.25. Especially when you could pair that with not having a $4M broken SP, $4M 4th OFer, and $6.3M utility infielder (all 3 hitters being short side platoon bats). Give me Larnach and Miranda for less than $2M combined and another 17.5+ to play with (Santana, DeSclafani, Margot, and Farmer make 19.55 this year if my math is correct).

While I agree fans shouldn't expect more from cheap vets I think it's far worse that the Twins seem to believe those cheap vets are a key piece of building a contending team. The team expecting more from $4M is the problem.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins seem to expect more for $4M. Well at least they expect more for $5.25M since they signed Santana to be their everyday 1B for that. That's my problem with it.

I don't like that they sign, or trade for, multiple guys in that 4-10 million range instead of bundling those salaries for the guys making more and going with the below average players that cost 740k a year (I believe that's the league minimum). I'd much rather the Twins carry Miranda for as little as possible than carry Santana for $5.25. Especially when you could pair that with not having a $4M broken SP, $4M 4th OFer, and $6.3M utility infielder (all 3 hitters being short side platoon bats). Give me Larnach and Miranda for less than $2M combined and another 17.5+ to play with (Santana, DeSclafani, Margot, and Farmer make 19.55 this year if my math is correct).

While I agree fans shouldn't expect more from cheap vets I think it's far worse that the Twins seem to believe those cheap vets are a key piece of building a contending team. The team expecting more from $4M is the problem.

You will get to see Larnach and Miranda play this year. If they don't add Santana and Margot then you're looking at AAA backups like Helman and Isola getting at-bats this year or keeping vets like Niko Goodrum around. I understand why they want to avoid that scenario. It isn't hard to argue that Farmer is worth $6M more than Niko Goodrum. I don't think they always choose the best available bench players (I think they picked Santana based on how Falvey remembers him 5 years ago and it would be really nice to have JD Davis instead) but I understand why they want competent veterans for the bench.

[TwinsDr2021]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I agree fans shouldn't expect more from cheap vets I think it's far worse that the Twins seem to believe those cheap vets are a key piece of building a contending team. The team expecting more from $4M is the problem.

The real problem IMO is this FO hasn't developed enough good healthy (being the key word) major league players in the amount of years they have been here.  (Active roster, Alcala, Funderburk, Jax, Ober, Sands, Varland, Jeffers, Julien, AK (prior FO draft), Martin and Wallner) nothing screams out amazing job until Lewis can stay healthy, and Wallner and Julien can hit lefties.  And in their top prospects I don't see much help in the near future (hopefully a few can be ready sometime next year) outside of Martin (bench player), Lee (currently hurt), Festa (not on the 40), Canterino (hurt again),SWR and Maybe Severino.

 

[USAFChief]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You will get to see Larnach and Miranda play this year. If they don't add Santana and Margot then you're looking at AAA backups like Helman and Isola getting at-bats this year or keeping vets like Niko Goodrum around. I understand why they want to avoid that scenario. It isn't hard to argue that Farmer is worth $6M more than Niko Goodrum. I don't think they always choose the best available bench players (I think they picked Santana based on how Falvey remembers him 5 years ago and it would be really nice to have JD Davis instead) but I understand why they want competent veterans for the bench.

point of order, your honor. Santana isn't a bench player.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

point of order, your honor. Santana isn't a bench player.

Correct, he's a stopgap because they didn't have a decent option at 1B on the roster. Miranda and Kirilloff are a DH platoon.

FWIW - Brandon Belt is unemployed right now and he was a decent starter for a playoff team last year. I don't understand how he is looking for work while Santana gets $5M guaranteed. It makes no sense to me that the Twins decided to wait out the free agent market but still were unable to get the real bargains at the end.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins seem to expect more for $4M. Well at least they expect more for $5.25M since they signed Santana to be their everyday 1B for that. That's my problem with it.

I don't like that they sign, or trade for, multiple guys in that 4-10 million range instead of bundling those salaries for the guys making more and going with the below average players that cost 740k a year (I believe that's the league minimum). I'd much rather the Twins carry Miranda for as little as possible than carry Santana for $5.25. Especially when you could pair that with not having a $4M broken SP, $4M 4th OFer, and $6.3M utility infielder (all 3 hitters being short side platoon bats). Give me Larnach and Miranda for less than $2M combined and another 17.5+ to play with (Santana, DeSclafani, Margot, and Farmer make 19.55 this year if my math is correct).

While I agree fans shouldn't expect more from cheap vets I think it's far worse that the Twins seem to believe those cheap vets are a key piece of building a contending team. The team expecting more from $4M is the problem.

This. The difference between the cheap vets and younger players isn’t great. However adding one good player could be a game changer. 

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Correct, he's a stopgap because they didn't have a decent option at 1B on the roster. Miranda and Kirilloff are a DH platoon.

FWIW - Brandon Belt is unemployed right now and he was a decent starter for a playoff team last year. I don't understand how he is looking for work while Santana gets $5M guaranteed. It makes no sense to me that the Twins decided to wait out the free agent market but still were unable to get the real bargains at the end.

Why is Miranda a platoon player? He was above average vs. righties in 2022 with a .265/.335/.390 .725 OPS wRC+ 110 batting line. That's the same as Kirilloff's career wRC+ 112 vs. righties (though Kirilloff managed a great wRC+ 138 against RH pitching last year aided by a .374 BABIP).

Miranda was fine as a full time 1B in my opinion, and the money they spent to sign Santana could have gotten wound up getting J.D. Martinez's $4.5MM this year (with tiny $1.5MM deferrals in the 2030s). Then the Twins would have an actual DH.

I get the feeling neither of us is too happy to have Santana on the roster as part of the big picture.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You will get to see Larnach and Miranda play this year. If they don't add Santana and Margot then you're looking at AAA backups like Helman and Isola getting at-bats this year or keeping vets like Niko Goodrum around. I understand why they want to avoid that scenario. It isn't hard to argue that Farmer is worth $6M more than Niko Goodrum. I don't think they always choose the best available bench players (I think they picked Santana based on how Falvey remembers him 5 years ago and it would be really nice to have JD Davis instead) but I understand why they want competent veterans for the bench.

How much below "below average" are Helman and Isola types? And how much better is the 20 mil guy that they could've signed instead of these scrap heap guys to make up that difference? Are you sure Helman (after Larnach, Martin, etc. get hurt) and Hoskins isn't a better setup than what they have now? Kyle Farmer isn't a $6M player. Niko Goodrum isn't the only other option.

Farmer being worth $6M more than Niko Goodrum doesn't make spending 6 mil on a short side platoon 2B/3B something I agree with. Tim Anderson got 5 mil. Kike Hernandez got 4. Amed Rosario got 1.5. You mentioned Davis and his 2.5 mil deal. Jon Berti is making 3.6 and could've been had in trade. Gio Urshela got 1.5. Garrett Hampson got 2. Is Kyle Farmer better than Hampson and 4 mil to spend elsewhere? Or Amed Rosario and 5 mil to spend elsewhere? Don't want to rely on your minors depth? Fine, but that doesn't mean you should be trading Jorge Polanco just to pay Farmer and Santana instead. Give me Polanco and any of the guys I just listed over Farmer and Santana. They focus too much on the floor at the cost of the ceiling for my taste.

I understand their desire to have depth, but I reject the idea that "below average players" is actually depth. They're just bodies. Take the slightly more below average below average player for significantly less money and use the money on above average players.

38 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The real problem IMO is this FO hasn't developed enough good healthy (being the key word) major league players in the amount of years they have been here.  (Active roster, Alcala, Funderburk, Jax, Ober, Sands, Varland, Jeffers, Julien, AK (prior FO draft), Martin and Wallner) nothing screams out amazing job until Lewis can stay healthy, and Wallner and Julien can hit lefties.  And in their top prospects I don't see much help in the near future (hopefully a few can be ready sometime next year) outside of Martin (bench player), Lee (currently hurt), Festa (not on the 40), Canterino (hurt again),SWR and Maybe Severino.

 

I agree with this. Or they traded them away for injured pitchers. What would the depth look like with Steer and CES on pre-arb deals? Don't need to spend 10+ mil on Santana and Margot if you have them around still. I'm hoping the Keaschall/Schobel/Harry types they draft can be relatively quick to "good enough depth" over the next year or 2 that they stop paying the Santana, Gallo, Margot, Farmer, MAT types. 

This is also where I think many on these boards get their "depth" statements wrong. So many are constantly talking about how there's just going to be nowhere to put all this young talent by 2025 or 2026 and they need to start trading guys. I disagree with that idea wholeheartedly. I would've liked to have trade a top prospect with Polanco for a real pitcher this offseason, but generally speaking the Twins don't have the depth many claim and it's why they keep wasting 10s of millions a year on below average vets in the name of depth.

[bean5302]

Larnach is a good stop-gap to start in the corners for a rebuilding team or as a depth option, but he's not good enough to be starting more than 40 or so games for a team hoping to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, he's also hurt quite a bit. Just 93 total MiLB/MLB games in 2021, 63 MiLB/MLB games in 2022 and 130 games between AAA/MLB last year. The book is closed on him. He's a lefty version of Kyle Garlick.

Jose Miranda isn't a slugger, but he generates enough power to be better than league average at the plate. He'll need to improve his plate discipline and start taking more walks to be more than an acceptable regular. He's a little lighter hitting Eddie Rosario of the infield.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

...I would've liked to have trade a top prospect with Polanco for a real pitcher this offseason...
 

I don't think Polanco would have moved things a ton in terms of getting a real pitcher, but I do think the Twins could have done more to shed his contract to open the door for a front end starter signing.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan

That's what I would have done from an offseason plan standpoint as of Nov 5th 2023.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think Polanco would have moved things a ton in terms of getting a real pitcher, but I do think the Twins could have done more to shed his contract to open the door for a front end starter signing.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan

That's what I would have done from an offseason plan standpoint as of Nov 5th 2023.

That's the point of the top prospect. If Polanco can bring back a top 100 prospect he can certainly be paired with 1 (plus top 10-20 system guys) to get a real pitcher.

[Danchat]

Larnach has already gotten three full chances the past three years in the majors. I loved him as a prospect, but you have to know when it's time to give up. He's not going to be a starter / impact player in the majors.

Miranda is more of an enigma, but with the advent of him not being able to play 3B and being a butcher at 1B (last we saw him), he needs to hit really well to compensate for his lack of fielding ability. There's still a path to him playing a big role in the majors, especially if Carlos Santana fully goes off the rails.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Why is Miranda a platoon player? 

That's probably being generous. Based on last season Miranda is a triple-A player and not a particularly good one. That's why there's an article above about how much he needs to improve his hitting and fielding to become a real possibility again.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How much below "below average" are Helman and Isola types?

A lot. They're both likely so far below average that they are below replacement value. That's actually bad enough to cancel out the contributions from one of your star players.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A lot. They're both likely so far below average that they are below replacement value. That's actually bad enough to cancel out the contributions from one of your star players.

So you believe having Helman as the 4th or 5th guy called up at any given position while having Hoskins in your everyday lineup would be worse than having Santana and Margot in your everyday lineup? Because those Helman and Isola types aren't the next guy up. They're the 4th or 5th guy up. If you're going through that many guys you're likely doomed anyways. The addition of Santana and Margot types doesn't really push the Helman and Isola types significantly deeper. 

The Twins had 19 guys get at least 50 PAs last year. 20 in 2022. 20 in 2021. 16 in 2019. 21 in 2018. 15 in 2017. They currently have 19 position players on their 40 man. Catchers are hard to factor in, but the Twins had been carrying numerous former major leaguers in AAA the last few years. But as for the IF OF types, they have 16 guys on the 40-man right now. Brooks Lee isn't on it so he's a 17th guy. Many of them can play multiple positions. By the time you're getting to Alex Isola for any real time your season is probably already in the tank. What combination of injuries are required to get Alex Isola playing a vital role in the Twins season?

I'd argue having a star player with 500 PAs outweighs the #18-20 guys on the roster getting 50 PAs each. Does 500 PAs of Isola cancel out the contributions of 500 PAs of Hoskins? For sure. But Isola wouldn't be getting 500 PAs because replacing Santana and Margot with Hoskins and Martin (or Larnach or whoever) to start the year doesn't jump Isola to the top of the depth chart it moves him up 1 spot.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue having a star player with 500 PAs outweighs the 18-20 guys on the roster getting 50 PAs each. Does 500 PAs of Isola cancel out the contributions of 500 PAs of Hoskins? For sure. But Isola wouldn't be getting 500 PAs because replacing Santana and Margot with Hoskins and Martin (or Larnach or whoever) to start the year doesn't jump Isola to the top of the depth chart it moves him up 1 spot.

Hoskins is getting $16M this season so it's really Hoskins, Martin, Goodrum and Balazovic instead of Margot, Santana, Farmer and Jay Jackson. The problem with that is if Hoskins gets hurt your season is over.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Hoskins is getting $16M this season so it's really Hoskins, Martin, Goodrum and Balazovic instead of Margot, Santana, Farmer and Jay Jackson. The problem with that is if Hoskins gets hurt your season is over.

Niko Goodrum wasn't making the roster over Miranda or Severino. Balazovic sitting in the pen pitching mop up duty for a month doesn't worry me so I won't even make the argument that they'd still have Jackson because I can't imagine their budget is so tight they couldn't afford the extra 750k for Jackson over Balazovic. Offensively it would be Hoskins, Martin, and Miranda instead of Santana, Farmer, and Margot. I'll take my chance at the ceiling of Hoskins over the guaranteed floor of 3 short side platoon bats.

The problem with the 3 below average guys instead is that you've given yourself no shot at a high ceiling from the very beginning. You're handicapping yourself in the name of being able to survive being handicapped. I'd prefer to take the big swing and at least have the chance of finding big time success. All the Margot, Santana, Farmer trio does is improve your chances of not losing 100 games. Doesn't increase your chance of winning 100. I want the increased chance of winning 100 with the added risk of losing 100.