Manuel Margot Is the Right Fit for Minnesota's Needs and Budget

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Miller. He will go down as the greatest glove at SS. If Jeffers were the guy traded. It would be jubilation. Even if the Twins got Roseboro in return.

Are you down on Jeffers? Why? I'm not baiting you.

[Schmoeman5]

57 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Are you down on Jeffers? Why? I'm not baiting you.

I'm not down on Jeffers. I don't think he's a good catcher. Conversely I don't think he's as bad as some make him out to be. I also believe that if he's more like a traditional number 1 catcher, that his offensive numbers will suffer. But that's another conversation.

[stringer bell]

I like Miller, but he hasn't cleared Class A and an equally young guy may or may not be ahead of him (De Andrade). The prospect acquired  is regarded as about equal to Miller. 

Margot is a pretty good player who has been slowed by injury. Will he again be an elite defender? His hitting has plateaued slightly below league average. His career splits are much better against left handed pitching, but last year he was not as good against lefties.

He's certainly a different player than Michael A Taylor, but he might be just as good, if he's completely recovered from his injuries.                                                                                                                                                                                         

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I look forward to watching Margot play. He plays hard and uses his athleticism well. He will be a good addition.

He wasn’t a good fit on the Dodgers and they really didn’t know him instead going with the known in Hernandez. I hope he makes them regret their decision.

[DocBauer]

I really like the addition of Margot. I was really torn if the Twins should go for a power corner bat like Duvall, or focus more on a viable CF option knowing Castro could play there and Martin would be in "reserve" for know, along with non 40 man options like Helman and Keirsey. 

I think they made the right move.

I really like Taylor and would have welcomed him back. Reportedly, the Twins were interested in having him back and were in contact with him. But he really wants the same kind of $ Bader and Keirmeir received. And he probably deserves that $10M kind of deal. What Taylor ultimately signs for shouldn't matter in the Margot acquisition. Opportunity met need and the Twins made a good move.

Honestly, I kinda like Margot better for this team than Taylor for 2024. Taylor has more power, though Margot has some, and is better defensively, but not by a lot if Margot's past couple of injuries are behind him. We shouldn't be clouded by Taylor having a career HR and OPS season. He's unlikely to repeat what he did in 2023. 

Margot offers defense at all 3 OF spots, and is a better AVG and OB batter with better contact and far less K's. I'm not saying he's a better player than Taylor, but he is different. And having a "different" hitter than Taylor on a team that will continue to have some swing and miss issues makes him, potentially, a better fit at the bottom of the order as a more contact driven batter.

While he's only had an OPS of .700 or more twice in his career, Taylor has ALSO only had an OPS of .700 or higher twice as well. And Margot has a career OPS above .700 against LHP. Taylor .746 and Margot at .760. 

We probably give up a little defense and power, but gain a better "hitter" with better OB, fewer K's, and a somewhat better OPS vs LHP. 

Good addition.

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, wombat28 said:

I read last week in a national report the tv money is only $8 million less than the previous year, yet payroll is $26 million less? 

Last year the Twins got a one time $30M Disney BAMtech payment.  Every team got that $30M so we are technically down $38M

[Aerodeliria]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not ready to buy into the optimism of this article.  I hope you are right, but all the reflections in TD are based on hope rather than fact.  Let's see.  I was content with Castro as backup and Martin behind him.

Margot is a one year player if I understand his contract.  Next year he will be too expensive so is it worth it to hold back on development of a player like Martin?

Plus it cost us Miller, which I am afraid we will regret....

[Aerodeliria]

10 hours ago, akmanak said:

Not much really stands out about this player. Bats average, defense is average, weaker arm and average speed. 

Well at least the Twins justified making a splash in FA with this pickup. 

This is now considered a splash? Maybe you're right, but it's a sad state of affairs if so. It's feels like a feather hit the water....

[Aerodeliria]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I think that 'Budget' in the title of an article has officially replaced 'Buxton Health' as the biggest click bait to rile up the TD faithful :)

Clever! This is so true. I don't even read any article about Buxton's health anymore because it's like a broken record or if that is too passe, how about 'Replay videos after watching.'

[Eris]

14 hours ago, Brandon said:

Noah Miller = A poor hitting Nick Punto and 

While Nick Punto was during a couple of seasons the worst offensive player in the MLB, it is also worth remembering that he contributed 15 fWAR over his 13 year career—almost all from defensive value. By comparison, Eddie Rosario has 13.4 fWAR at this point in his 10 seasons. Also Punto has a WS ring with the Cardinals in 2011. 
 

Nick Ahmed is a good comparison to Punto as is Greg Gagne who was slightly better offensively. Career WRC+ for all three players are 73, 77 and 83 respectively. (Data from Fangraphs)

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm not down on Jeffers. I don't think he's a good catcher. Conversely I don't think he's as bad as some make him out to be. I also believe that if he's more like a traditional number 1 catcher, that his offensive numbers will suffer. But that's another conversation.

Welcome to the club. The Twins' requirement to catch is you can't be fast (can't waste speed on catching) & have some pop in your bat & want to catch. Better the pop better the catcher. That's why they are so high on Jeffers, & all our top-catching depth are not even ranked in MN top prospect list. A serious contending team has to be serious about it's catching defense proficiency. If Vazquez is gone we'd sink pretty fast.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Doncon may lessen that blow if he ever makes it to the show.

I realize that fans love to give players cute nicknames, and I'm a bit slow on the take, but who the hell is Doncon?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I realize that fans love to give players cute nicknames, and I'm a bit slow on the take, but who the hell is Doncon?

Rayne Doncon Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

[John Belinski]

Miller just can not hit so he would never make it in the majors, plus we have several better future SS that can help the Twins. 

[Trov]

What this deal tells to me is that Taylor was asking for either too much money or too many years.  Taylor would have been better fit, but being it would be as a 4th OF and late inning replacement the cost should be lower.  However, I feel like Martin could have filled the roll too, unless they want to make sure he is playing everyday so will be AAA then only get call with injury. 

[Riverbrian]

If you consider how I wish the Twins would operate... Margot isn't the guy. 

If you consider how the Twins actually operate. Margot is a perfect fit. 

That wall isn't worth banging my head against.  

I have no expectation that the following will think exactly like I do. 

1. The Twins Front Office

2. My Wife

3. The Twins Manager

4. Kevin Costner

5. Any Twins Player

6. The Democratic Party

7. Any Front Office in Baseball

8. The Republican Party

9. The road guy who plows snow into my recently snow blown driveway. 

10. Dennis Rodman

For not thinking like me... I will forgive 8 of the 10 listed as they have jobs to do. 6 and 8 can pound sand. 

I would have bet big money that the Twins were going to bring in one more player who profiles exactly like Manuel Margot.  

I hope he does a great job. He is one of us now. 

 

 

[stringer bell]

If the Twins were going to bring in a right handed hitter to fill out their position player roster for Opening Day, I was hoping it could be somebody who would be a regular, starting most of the time and putting up numbers that kept him in the lineup. I don't think Margot is that, so I am disappoint. 

Margot is fine as a fourth outfielder/Buxton insurance, especially at the cost of $4M. He frees Willi Castro to play everywhere, even if Buxton isn't in the lineup. He has a very good defensive rep and can play all three outfield spots. He still runs well (75th percentile) despite a major knee injury. 

[Jeff K]

On 3/3/2024 at 11:03 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I was an advocate to get Margot when he was good, less expensive & we really needed him. Now he's not the same OFer that he was, more expensive although TB is flipping most of the tab and Buck is healthier than he has been for years, Castro is a very capable Buxton sub with Martin waiting in the wings with all his talents & others. I think everybody here knows where I stand on Miller. Doncon is a Sano-type SS, who's a liability defensively wherever he plays so he'll end up at 1B/ DH & he'll be developed into a strike-out machine. He'll add to our large glut. Miller is an undeveloped contact hitter who happens to be the minor league GG. IMO there's no comparison, Miller is by far more valuable & LAD is not dumb they can see it, and that's why they targeted him.

I like Margot but not at the expense of Miller.

By undeveloped hitter, my translation is he can't hit.  It's pretty unlikely that a weak hitter in A ball turns into a serviceable major leaguer other than as a defensive replacement.  

[Fatbat]

22 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Good evaluators can look at a player & see the future. Twins only look at big bats That's who they draft (Rooker, Sabato, Cavaco, Larnach etc.), their development is focused on how many HRs they squeeze out of every player and sign worthless FAs like Gallo.

Doncon, I read his scouting report. Twins made Sano their "moonshot" poster child, All that fame went to his head. Their focus was to have Sano hit his 500' moonshots. That focused swing killed him as a hitter.

People like to put the "emotional attachment" label on me, but that doesn't fly. Because I place value on defense up the middle & you favor the Twins view that big bats solve everything. Sure, I'd like a GG SS with a big bat (depending on how prolific his SO rate is) but any competitive team knows that gloves trump bats up the middle. cOF, 1B/ DH yeah sure bats trump gloves. People accused me of being emotional attached to Polanco. No it was just a bad trade because we didn't filled any needs & we lost a lot. But if we traded Polanco in combination with other players for Harry Ford (C/ SEA) I'd be 100% in, This emotional attachment is just a ploy to make me look irrational. I'm not into social media so I'm not persuaded by people who have agendas. I observe, put pieces together and make a reasonable assumption. that's very rational.

I think the Twins should hire you to evaluate talent.       It won't do any good because they'll give away all those who I give high marks to.

All the vids I have seen of Doncon hr’s were pulled to left field except one to left center. His hand speed is amazingly quick and he looks long and lanky size wise.  The guy can hit but he is Eddie Rosario nonpicky. Too much swing and miss but he is very young.

[Doctor Gast]

3 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

By undeveloped hitter, my translation is he can't hit.  It's pretty unlikely that a weak hitter in A ball turns into a serviceable major leaguer other than as a defensive replacement.  

Undeveloped means drafted as a high-contact prospect who has not been developed as one.

[Brandon]

20 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Not if he's CF insurance. 

He will still get over half his AB against lefthanders unless Buxton goes out for the year the first week of the season.  But an .850 OPS against lefthanders in 200 AB and a .650 OPS against righties in 100 AB is going to be close to an .800 OPS.  

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Brandon said:

He will still get over half his AB against lefthanders unless Buxton goes out for the year the first week of the season.  But an .850 OPS against lefthanders in 200 AB and a .650 OPS against righties in a 200 AB / 100 AB split is going to be close to an .800 OPS.  

Margot has a career .760 OPS vs lefthanded pitching, and he's going to OPS .850 this year?

Color me skeptical. 

Also color me skeptical he'll get more PAs vs LH pitching than RH. That's a tough trick to pull off. There's simply not enough LH pitching to make that work very often.

 

[KirbyDome89]

24 minutes ago, Brandon said:

He will still get over half his AB against lefthanders unless Buxton goes out for the year the first week of the season.  But an .850 OPS against lefthanders in 200 AB and a .650 OPS against righties in 100 AB is going to be close to an .800 OPS.  

Which hasn't happened once in his entire career. He had more ABs against RHP in 47 games during the shortened 2020 season than you're projecting for all of 2024. 

[Fatbat]

40 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Margot has a career .760 OPS vs lefthanded pitching, and he's going to OPS .850 this year?

Color me skeptical. 

Also color me skeptical he'll get more PAs vs LH pitching than RH. That's a tough trick to pull off. There's simply not enough LH pitching to make that work very often.

 

Id be happy if he had a .370 obp and scored 75 runs. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Margot has a career .760 OPS vs lefthanded pitching, and he's going to OPS .850 this year?

Color me skeptical. 

Also color me skeptical he'll get more PAs vs LH pitching than RH. That's a tough trick to pull off. There's simply not enough LH pitching to make that work very often.

 

He had an .866 OPS against LHP in 2019.  Not that I am predicting that to happen and I share your skepticism but it's possible he could pull off .850.  Sorta / maybe.   😉

[USAFChief]

On 3/3/2024 at 10:16 AM, Brandon said:

If Margot has a big year say .800 OPS and 8 defensive runs saved then we could pick up his option and trade him for a prospect.

I'd say the chances the Twins pick up Margot's $12M 2025 option are even less than the chances they could "trade him for a prospect" if they did.

[Riverbrian]

On 3/3/2024 at 11:16 AM, Brandon said:

If Margot has a big year say .800 OPS and 8 defensive runs saved then we could pick up his option and trade him for a prospect.

If he has that type of year. Why not pick up his option and keep him? 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Id be happy if he had a .370 obp and scored 75 runs. 

What? He has a career .309 OBP. 

.370 would put him amongst the best in baseball.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What? He has a career .309 OBP. 

.370 would put him amongst the best in baseball.

All he has to do is bunt successfully 30 times and he would almost be there if he has 400 AB’s. Bunting for singles will be the new thing in ‘24.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Margot has a career .760 OPS vs lefthanded pitching, and he's going to OPS .850 this year?

Color me skeptical. 

Also color me skeptical he'll get more PAs vs LH pitching than RH. That's a tough trick to pull off. There's simply not enough LH pitching to make that work very often.

 

I was just saying there is a path for him to get to an .800 OPS.  I will let others he craft a more exact projection of what his numbers could be in a platoon.