How an MLB Expansion Draft Would Work, and Whom the Twins Would Protect

[Jeremy Nygaard]

With Rob Manfred and Jeff Passan making MLB expansion news hot right now. it's fun to ponder: If there were an expansion draft tomorrow, whom would the Minnesota Twins protect from it?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The last time baseball expanded was in 1998, with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This brought the number of Major League Baseball teams to 30. Similarly, the NBA expanded to 30 teams in 2004 after expanding to 29 in 1995. The NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. The NHL reached 32 teams with expansions in 2000, 2017, and 2021. Since shrinking to 10 teams for the 2002-2004 seasons, Major League Soccer has expanded almost annually and will include 30 teams by 2025.

It’s inevitable. Leagues with 30 teams will add two more franchises (and collect enormous buy-in fees) sometime soon.

The reasons for expanding, where the franchises will end up, and if it’s necessary can and will be debated into the foreseeable future, but that’s not what this article is about. This is about what expansion means to your favorite team and the role they play in providing players to the new franchises.

THE EXPANSION DRAFT
While the rules could change from what was in place in 1997, they would likely be very similar. In the last edition of the expansion draft, each team was allowed to protect 15 players, while recently drafted players were exempt. If it followed the same rules, teams would essentially be allowed to protect 15 players from the 40-man rosters while all other players would be exempt from the draft.

Players with 10-and-5 rights or no-trade clauses had to be included on the list of 15 players. It should also be noted that we’re looking at this when 40-man rosters are full, whereas an expansion draft would happen in the offseason where free agents and other fringe players wouldn’t be on the roster. (Players who project to be free agents after 2024 don’t need to be protected, with some exceptions.)

Expansion teams will take 15 players each in round one (one player from each team) and then each existing team will be allowed to protect three more players. The same process will occur for a second round. At that point, each expansion team will have 30 players and each existing team will have lost two players and protected 21 players. In the 1997 draft, each of the two new teams got to select seven more players, giving them a total of 35. If this draft follows suit, the third round would consist of five American League and five National League teams each losing one more player.

With that and without further ado, let’s look at an early projection of whom the Twins would protect and the best players it would leave unprotected.

No-trade clauses: SS Carlos Correa (1), OF Byron Buxton (2)
These two offensive cornerstones have no-trade clauses. On the whole, though, around the league, aging players with large contracts who don't have no-trade clauses or 10-and-5 rights may be exposed.

No-brainers: RHP Pablo López (3), C Ryan Jeffers (4), 3B Royce Lewis (5), RHP Jhoan Durán (6), 2B Edouard Julien (7), RHP Bailey Ober (8), LF Matt Wallner (9), RHP Joe Ryan (10)
This group (which isn't in any particular order) stands apart from the rest, in that they are all under multiple years of team control and, except for Lopez, are all relatively inexpensive. Of significance, too: With these 10 players, you have 60 percent of your starting rotation, a closer and all four of your up-the-middle positions covered. That seems important.

Protected: RHP Chris Paddack (11), RHP Griffin Jax (12), 1B Alex Kirilloff (13), RHP Louie Varland (14)
This is always going to be the group debated the most, regardless of team. Paddack's injury history has to be considered, but his age and contract tip the scale in his favor. Jax proved his worth as a back-of-the-bullpen type. Kirilloff has shown promise, when not injured, but could certainly be debated. Varland gets the nod for the last spot as a young, valuable arm whose role has yet to be defined.

Prospects: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (15) 
As a top-50 global prospect, Rodríguez also could fit in the no-brainer group. 

Exposed: RHP Jorge Alcalá (‘25 club option), RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Justin Topa, C Christian Vázquez, UTIL Willi Castro, LHP Steven Okert, RHP Josh Staumont, OF Trevor Larnach, IF José Miranda, RHP Josh Winder, RHP Cole Sands, RHP Matt Canterino, C Jair Camargo, LHP Kody Funderburk, LHP Brent Headrick, IF Yunior Severino, RHP Zack Weiss, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, UTIL Austin Martin

Free agents: RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RF Max Kepler, IF Kyle Farmer, 1B/DH Carlos Santana, LHP Caleb Thielbar, RHP Jay Jackson (‘25 club option) 
In this iteration, the Twins would risk exposing a few solid bullpen arms (Stewart, Topa, Okert and Staumont) who all figure to be on solid ground heading into the 2024 season but are all on the wrong side of 30 years of age. An expansion team could find interest in a younger arm like the 23-year-old Woods Richardson or take a shot on the big arm of Canterino. Multi-dimensional Willi Castro would be a perfect fit on an expansion team, but he only has one year of control beyond this season, whereas José Miranda would have four. Funderburk would be a more-than-serviceable left-handed bullpen arm.

Prediction: The reality is that a healthy season from Canterino probably puts him on the protected list, but at this point, there's still enough upside for an expansion team to take him. In that event, Stewart, Castro, and Funderburk could be protected. In the second and/or third round, it would make a lot of sense for an expansion team to target Larnach or Miranda, either of whom could serve as a second-division plug-and-play while just entering arbitration years.

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Who would you protect? And who do you think you'd be most likely to lose? Join the fun and add your take on this exercise to the discussion.

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[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I balked at leaving Brock Stewart exposed, because they have control through the 2027 season, but there's no one I'd take off the protected list for Stewart either.

After seeing this laid out, I really hope it doesn't happen! This would decimate the Twins' depth, and I imagine this would be true for many other small/mid-market teams. 

[Hunter McCall]

I personally would swap Brock Stewart and Louie Varland, but I could see why someone would argue otherwise. Fun article!

[GKuehl]

When Brooks Lee is called up, he'll need to be added to the 40-man and the no-brainer list, likely pushing Paddack or Jax out of a protected spot (I'd rather protect Varland than Jax because Varland is younger with more team control, might be able to remain a mid-rotation starter, and his worst-case scenario is a Griffin Jax-level reliever). 

[tony&rodney]

MLB has explicitly stated that expansion cannot be considered until both of the teams currently in Oakland and St. Petersburg have settled their stadium problems and are in their new locations. That is at least 3-5 years from now. I could see Manfred wanting to announce two new expansion teams at his final press conference in 2029.

I would protect Walker Jenkins.

[MTV]

I do think the league could and should expand to 32 teams in the near future, and if they do so, this kind of a draft would be implemented a week after the World Series, so teams have time to fill their 40-Man roster over the off-season.  I would love to see this go down at the end of next season, as the 2025 free agent class is incredibly intriguing and deep, and would make free agency a hell of a lot more entertaining. 

[mrcharlie]

54 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

MLB has explicitly stated that expansion cannot be considered until both of the teams currently in Oakland and St. Petersburg have settled their stadium problems and are in their new locations. That is at least 3-5 years from now. I could see Manfred wanting to announce two new expansion teams at his final press conference in 2029.

I would protect Walker Jenkins.

Agree.  

Drop Kirillof for Lee as well.

 

[chpettit19]

This is a fun way to look at the roster. Expansion is definitely coming so it'll be interesting to see what the roster looks like then and do this exercise again. I think I'd probably go with the same 15 guys if this were happening tomorrow. Who they'd lose is always going to be tough to predict until you see all the available guys from other teams so you know where the strengths are. 

Fun exercise and will be really interesting to see how things go sometime in the next 5-10 years when it happens for real.

[Mike Sixel]

If I'm an expansion team, I'm taking veterans I can trade for prospects..... And really young players I can keep around. If I'm the Twins, I think I'd base my protection around that. 

[tony&rodney]

I would go with the same 15 guys, perhaps swap out Jax for Canterino depending on what transpires in the 2024 season. Good list.

[Jocko87]

Fascinating that expansion seems a basically a done deal with a billion dollars of free agents still hanging out with spring training starting.  Seems like there are a few very significant financial factors that need solved before adding teams.  They better solve the media distribution question in a very significant manner before expanding.

Heck, they have to figure that out before they get a couple stadiums built. 

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

Agree.  

Drop Kirillof for Lee as well.

 

Welcome to Twins Daily.

[BSLinPA]

Interesting exercise, Jeremy.  Today's protected list changes tomorrow (figuratively).

Thought it might be fun to take a look back at what the Twins have lost in previous expansion drafts.

 

1969 - KC Royals and Seattle Pilots (bankrupt Pilots move to Milwaukee prior to the next season!!??)

Bob Oliver (OF/1B), Pat Kelly (OF), Jackie Hernandez (SS) and Jerry Cram (P) to KC

Buzz Stephen (P) and Rich Rollins (3B) to Seattle

 

1977 - Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays

Steve Braun (OF) to Seattle

Jerry Garvin (P), Al Woods (OF), Bill Singer (P), and Dave McKay (2B/3B) to Toronto

 

1992 - Florida Marlins and Colorado Rockies

Tom Edens (P) to Florida; and traded to Houston Astros for Hector Carrasco (P) and Brian Griffiths (P)

Jayhawk Owens (C) to Colorado

 

1998 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks

Brent Brede (1B) and Damian Miller (C) to Arizona

None to Tampa 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Fun exercise.  IMO, the only debate I see in your choices is Varland over Stewart.  Puts into perspective who is fairly replaceable.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I plan to take periodic looks at this from now until an expansion plan is in place.

But as an exercise, I do find it entertaining. I thought the Twins list was quite easy, with not a lot of wiggle room. That will change when Lee is promoted... and quite possibly every day from here on out.

I've always found expansion drafts to be quite interesting. The strategy and wheeling-and-dealing. Travis Fryman getting traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks as a brand new team... and then turning him around with a couple others into Matt Williams. There's no way the Tigers were trading Fryman to the Guardians. 

And that was before it could be an event. The expansion draft would be a really fun event, because the players are all known (which is what hurts the MLB Draft). 

[Schmoeman5]

7 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

 

After seeing this laid out, I really hope it doesn't happen! This would decimate the Twins' depth, and I imagine this would be true for many other small/mid-market teams. 

Decimate the Twins depth?  And you imagine this would be true for many other small/mid-market teams? But no actual data. OK 👍 

[tony&rodney]

When MLB expands, and in consideration of the enormous upfront fee to join the good old anti-trust club, it would be cool if teams could only protect 10 positions players and 5 pitchers within each entire organization.

[Fatbat]

When you say recently drafted players are exempt from expansion, is that the last two draft classes?  We should keep this going because if expansion doesn’t happen for 4-6 years, Everything changes!! Great starting baseline list for now. 

[Heiny]

Just out of curiosity,  do the current teams receive money from the expansion?

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Just out of curiosity,  do the current teams receive money from the expansion?

Yes

[darin617]

MLB doesn't need or can handle expansion. Move Tampa to Montreal and Florida could just get contracted. Would have to think about another team to eliminate.  You could actually choose the Angels as the second team to contract.  You can't make the playoffs with Trout and Ohtani you may as well call it. California has enough teams and wouldn't miss one.

[David HK]

Sucked losing Damian Miller to AZ.  But then, there was this Mauer guy who came along...

The real tragedy is that we never got to see the Jayhawk Owens Era in Minnesota.

[miracleb]

I would guess there might be 4-5 guys listed who would even be in the conversation by the time any expansion draft actually were to  HAPPEN.......so a pretty moot point.  But....I read the whole damn article!!  LOL!!   :-)

[Jgcarew]

Why should the Twins - or most any other team- give up any players … when you could just break up the Dodgers and the Yankees.. Yes! I say tax the rich and feed the poor. 

[Finlander]

Great writeup - very thought provoking!

I'm not necessarily sold on Kirilloff as a keeper. He hasn't been healthy, hasn't hit consistently when he's been in the lineup, and he doesn't play a premium defensive position. Given the perpetual search for pitching, I might be inclined to keep another pitcher over Kirilloff, maybe a lefty. Might also make a case for keeping Carmago (catchers are also rare in the system), Martin, or Castro as well, Even Miranda looked good smacking that rbi liner to the RF corner yesterday. If he's healthy, I could see him surpassing Kirilloff. At least Miranda has shown he can hit well in the majors. Unfortunately we've been waiting for quite awhile on players like Kirilloff and Larnach.