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The last time baseball expanded was in 1998, with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This brought the number of Major League Baseball teams to 30. Similarly, the NBA expanded to 30 teams in 2004 after expanding to 29 in 1995. The NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. The NHL reached 32 teams with expansions in 2000, 2017, and 2021. Since shrinking to 10 teams for the 2002-2004 seasons, Major League Soccer has expanded almost annually and will include 30 teams by 2025.
It’s inevitable. Leagues with 30 teams will add two more franchises (and collect enormous buy-in fees) sometime soon.
The reasons for expanding, where the franchises will end up, and if it’s necessary can and will be debated into the foreseeable future, but that’s not what this article is about. This is about what expansion means to your favorite team and the role they play in providing players to the new franchises.
THE EXPANSION DRAFT
While the rules could change from what was in place in 1997, they would likely be very similar. In the last edition of the expansion draft, each team was allowed to protect 15 players, while recently drafted players were exempt. If it followed the same rules, teams would essentially be allowed to protect 15 players from the 40-man rosters while all other players would be exempt from the draft.
Players with 10-and-5 rights or no-trade clauses had to be included on the list of 15 players. It should also be noted that we’re looking at this when 40-man rosters are full, whereas an expansion draft would happen in the offseason where free agents and other fringe players wouldn’t be on the roster. (Players who project to be free agents after 2024 don’t need to be protected, with some exceptions.)
Expansion teams will take 15 players each in round one (one player from each team) and then each existing team will be allowed to protect three more players. The same process will occur for a second round. At that point, each expansion team will have 30 players and each existing team will have lost two players and protected 21 players. In the 1997 draft, each of the two new teams got to select seven more players, giving them a total of 35. If this draft follows suit, the third round would consist of five American League and five National League teams each losing one more player.
With that and without further ado, let’s look at an early projection of whom the Twins would protect and the best players it would leave unprotected.
No-trade clauses: SS Carlos Correa (1), OF Byron Buxton (2)
These two offensive cornerstones have no-trade clauses. On the whole, though, around the league, aging players with large contracts who don't have no-trade clauses or 10-and-5 rights may be exposed.
No-brainers: RHP Pablo López (3), C Ryan Jeffers (4), 3B Royce Lewis (5), RHP Jhoan Durán (6), 2B Edouard Julien (7), RHP Bailey Ober (8), LF Matt Wallner (9), RHP Joe Ryan (10)
This group (which isn't in any particular order) stands apart from the rest, in that they are all under multiple years of team control and, except for Lopez, are all relatively inexpensive. Of significance, too: With these 10 players, you have 60 percent of your starting rotation, a closer and all four of your up-the-middle positions covered. That seems important.
Protected: RHP Chris Paddack (11), RHP Griffin Jax (12), 1B Alex Kirilloff (13), RHP Louie Varland (14)
This is always going to be the group debated the most, regardless of team. Paddack's injury history has to be considered, but his age and contract tip the scale in his favor. Jax proved his worth as a back-of-the-bullpen type. Kirilloff has shown promise, when not injured, but could certainly be debated. Varland gets the nod for the last spot as a young, valuable arm whose role has yet to be defined.
Prospects: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (15)
As a top-50 global prospect, Rodríguez also could fit in the no-brainer group.
Exposed: RHP Jorge Alcalá (‘25 club option), RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Justin Topa, C Christian Vázquez, UTIL Willi Castro, LHP Steven Okert, RHP Josh Staumont, OF Trevor Larnach, IF José Miranda, RHP Josh Winder, RHP Cole Sands, RHP Matt Canterino, C Jair Camargo, LHP Kody Funderburk, LHP Brent Headrick, IF Yunior Severino, RHP Zack Weiss, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, UTIL Austin Martin
Free agents: RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RF Max Kepler, IF Kyle Farmer, 1B/DH Carlos Santana, LHP Caleb Thielbar, RHP Jay Jackson (‘25 club option)
In this iteration, the Twins would risk exposing a few solid bullpen arms (Stewart, Topa, Okert and Staumont) who all figure to be on solid ground heading into the 2024 season but are all on the wrong side of 30 years of age. An expansion team could find interest in a younger arm like the 23-year-old Woods Richardson or take a shot on the big arm of Canterino. Multi-dimensional Willi Castro would be a perfect fit on an expansion team, but he only has one year of control beyond this season, whereas José Miranda would have four. Funderburk would be a more-than-serviceable left-handed bullpen arm.
Prediction: The reality is that a healthy season from Canterino probably puts him on the protected list, but at this point, there's still enough upside for an expansion team to take him. In that event, Stewart, Castro, and Funderburk could be protected. In the second and/or third round, it would make a lot of sense for an expansion team to target Larnach or Miranda, either of whom could serve as a second-division plug-and-play while just entering arbitration years.
Who would you protect? And who do you think you'd be most likely to lose? Join the fun and add your take on this exercise to the discussion.
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