I'm calling it...

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

IF healthy, and admittedly, that's a gargantuan if when you look at the track record of Lewis and Buxton, but if the baseball gods give the Twins a reasonably healthy season, I think this is finally the year...

They go to the World Series.

The components are there. A legit ace in Lopez with Joe Ryan ready to take that next step and replace Sonny Gray. A bullpen that has been mentioned as being the best in the AL and one that has plenty of depth and options. There's a handful of relievers on the roster that have absolutely dynamic stuff. If the rotation after Lopez and Ryan is stabilized by Ober and someone from the group of Paddack / Varland / Descalfini, I think the pitching staff is good enough for a deep October run.

I'd like them to add a right-handed bat to the outfield mix but it is not an immediate fatal flaw and something that can wait until the deadline. Again, I'll preface this by saying if health allows but how many teams have 3 players that have a ceiling of MVP - Correa, Buxton, and Lewis. The optimist in me says Julien and Wallner take the next step rather than experience a sophomore slump. Love the addition of Santana - lengthens the line-up and his approach could have a larger impact on the rest of the guys being more selective at the plate.

I'm a big believer in Carlos Correa. He's made several comments about how close this group is and how there are parallels to what was going on in Houston when they made their run. I tend to believe him.

So there it is. Call your shot. Health allowing...how good can this team be?

[NotAboutWinning]

Oh man, you gave me goosebumps 🤣

[Muppet]

I'd like to add to this that there is a decent chance that one or more from the list of Kirilloff, Wallner (yes Wallner..im not fully sold yet), Miranda, Vazquez, and Larnach makes significant sustained improvement. And those that don't can be quickly dumped back to AAA (in most cases) without giving them 100s of ABs that they'd give to a worthless player that they paid millions to acquire. 

With a healthy Correa and (supposedly) Buxton, along with Royce Lewis, and a Gallo sized hole filled with at minimum, mediocrity, they are already a much better team than they were at the start of the 2023 season.

[tony&rodney]

When I have listened to Julien's interviews in the past it seemed like he was surprised to be playing major league baseball. Most players have it in their heads that they will be stars some day once they become really good in high school, some earlier. Trust me, I have heard that from a thousand players.

Julien sounded different in a few interviews since the end of the season. I think he awoke to the possibilities for himself. I'm thinking Julien could bust out in a big way.

[chpettit19]

I lack the optimism of this thread, but I very much hope it's correct. I can see the path even if I'm more reserved in my beliefs on it being all that likely of a result. If a few key things break right (namely health) this team could be very good. It's definitely nice to have it not be totally ridiculous to have faith in the Twins. That isn't often the case. Looking forward to enjoying the 2024 season with all the TD faithful.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

When I have listened to Julien's interviews in the past it seemed like he was surprised to be playing major league baseball. Most players have it in their heads that they will be stars some day once they become really good in high school, some earlier. Trust me, I have heard that from a thousand players.

Julien sounded different in a few interviews since the end of the season. I think he awoke to the possibilities for himself. I'm thinking Julien could bust out in a big way.

If he's going from a 130 OPS+ (136 wRC+) in 109 games and busting out in a "big way" on top of that you're talking MVP discussion. That would be very fun to watch.

[Muppet]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I lack the optimism of this thread, but I very much hope it's correct. I can see the path even if I'm more reserved in my beliefs on it being all that likely of a result. If a few key things break right (namely health) this team could be very good. It's definitely nice to have it not be totally ridiculous to have faith in the Twins. That isn't often the case. Looking forward to enjoying the 2024 season with all the TD faithful.

No better time to be optimistic than before the first game. 

[jkcarew]

Fools gold to even hope regarding Buxton’s health. Having said that, if most of the other things mentioned in this thread happen, there’s a chance, regardless of Buxton. Time to expect others to lead this team.

I remain confident in a bounce back for Correa in the absence of serious injury. Every under-the-covers 2023 number that exists says he was ridiculously unlucky last season. 

[Mike Sixel]

I can see this if I squint. They have some great upside on offense for sure. And if the bullpen is really the best in baseball, that will be huge.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

You absolutely have the ingredients.   

1. An Ace - absolute stud in Lopez

2. Shutdown closer - Duran

3.  Leader - Correa SS - If he performs to 2022 and prior you have stud that shines when the lights are brightest

4. Buxton . . .  its questionable, but when healthy is a top 10 player

5, Young guns - Lewis and Julien

6.  Kepler - young gun figuring out how to be elite

7.  If we get anything out of Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach or Wallner, Santana - if we can find 2 solid bats out of these 4 - thats a hell of a offense

8.   5 Solid pitching options with all 4 having potential to be your #2.  Desclafani, Ryan, Ober, Paddack - all have the possibility to show to be a #2 - either through stats previously (Desclafani (2021), Ryan (1st half of 2023), or ability Ober and Paddack.  Paddack actually has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our staff 98 on a fastball, with a wicked slider and curveball,  if it comes together with his bulldog attitude watch out.  

9. You have the players on the farm who could give shot in the arm (Prato, Helman, Severino).  Lee who would be an excellent fill in, big league bat - or assets to acquire another great pitcher

10.  A relief corps that is loaded with solid options, and already 4-5 potential options in AAA.  Right now none of them will be elite but all that are useable.  If Duran is Duran - you have the potential to have the best top to bottom bullpen I have seen in my lifetime for the Twins.  Some with some elite potential.  Topa, Stewart, Staumont are very interesting.  You have another solid reliever from the Marlins.   

I said it before if I were a betting man this is a year I would put some money down. Yes things would have to break right,  but if so this is a much better TEAM than the 2019 version.  

The one pitcher on the farm that could shine bright this year as a starter or bullpen option is Canterino.  He is funky,  he is a bulldog, he has health question marks,  but he has the stuff to be elite, and the college pedigree to succeed.  

Yes there is question marks - but you have the possibility for things to come together.   

You also have the possibility health wise for everything to fall part LOL.  If Correa and Buxton fall apart - either Pablo or Duran go down with injury - and Declafani and Paddack are career injured players.  It could get ugly in a hurry.  I prefer my first scenario.  😉

[Doctor Gast]

We have a great core, & hope Correa & Buxton to be healthy at least for the postseason. Last season I could see the great benifit of trading for Lopez. I could see a great year from Lewis & a good year from Julien, I could see Vazquez to stabilize our rotation & improve our catching defense, I could see Duran continue his dominance, I could see Ryan & Ober make steady improvements & I could see Paparesta transforming our health dilema. I could see a pathway to win in the postseason. I can see us continue in these advantages but we have suffered some losses & we haven't cover those losses. IMO we haven't improve but have gotten worse. Yes we got some middle relief help but that's not enough. A lot of your premises is based on hope & hype & that's not enough. I wish I could share your optimism NJ, but I just can't see it.

[Craig Arko]

If things were really all that bad then adding Walter Johnson in his prime wouldn’t fix it. Maybe things aren’t all that bad. I choose to be optimistic, too.

[tony&rodney]

The answer to all dilemmas and worries is Louie Varland. I may be a voice in the wilderness but it has spoken.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

6.  Kepler - young gun figuring out how to be elite

You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Muppet said:

I'd like to add to this that there is a decent chance that one or more from the list of Kirilloff, Wallner (yes Wallner..im not fully sold yet), Miranda, Vazquez, and Larnach makes significant sustained improvement. And those that don't can be quickly dumped back to AAA (in most cases) without giving them 100s of ABs that they'd give to a worthless player that they paid millions to acquire. 

With a healthy Correa and (supposedly) Buxton, along with Royce Lewis, and a Gallo sized hole filled with at minimum, mediocrity, they are already a much better team than they were at the start of the 2023 season.

Wallner & Julien both had OBP’s of .370 plus……they’ll both be around for 500-550 AB’s instead of 250 AB. Assuming these guys are both going to suck is not reality. Too talented.

Miranda has a great chance of not seeing Minneapolis all year……in a uniform.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have a great core, & hope Correa & Buxton to be healthy at least for the postseason. Last season I could see the great benifit of trading for Lopez. I could see a great year from Lewis & a good year from Julien, I could see Vazquez to stabilize our rotation & improve our catching defense, I could see Duran continue his dominance, I could see Ryan & Ober make steady improvements & I could see Paparesta transforming our health dilema. I could see a pathway to win in the postseason. I can see us continue in these advantages but we have suffered some losses & we haven't cover those losses. IMO we haven't improve but have gotten worse. Yes we got some middle relief help but that's not enough. A lot of your premises is based on hope & hype & that's not enough. I wish I could share your optimism NJ, but I just can't see it.

Nationally, who hypes the Twins???

Lewis was part of the plan going into ‘23 with some mild optimism coming off 2 years of ACL tears. Wallner was a maybe call-up & expected to be a middling player. Julien was interesting after the World Baseball Event, big maybe?

Now the #1 - #3 - #7 guys in the line-up 70% of the year this year. Not hope nor hype. They can all play.

Expecting Buxton to contribute more with good health - 40 CF starts & 70 starts at DH - CC hitting 22 HR & .255 BA should be reasonable from the #6 spot in the line-up.

Paddack, is better than Maeda at this point in their careers. Maeda threw 106 innings last year……gotta be able to match that.

Gray is gone - Team was 15-18 in his starts in ‘23. He had an OK 5 inning start & win v. Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor outing v. Astros. Can Varland - Festa - DeSclafani go .500 - that’s the question…I think they can and it’s not hope based.

Bullpen was picked to be Best in the AL by FanGraphs before they picked up Okert. Seen as #3 Pen in the game.

Kirilloff/Santana at 1B should be a solid platoon!

I like their chances because I believe in the talent not because I hope they win a lot because I have a Twins hat.

Not sure how the Team hasn’t improved?

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have a great core, & hope Correa & Buxton to be healthy at least for the postseason. Last season I could see the great benifit of trading for Lopez. I could see a great year from Lewis & a good year from Julien, I could see Vazquez to stabilize our rotation & improve our catching defense, I could see Duran continue his dominance, I could see Ryan & Ober make steady improvements & I could see Paparesta transforming our health dilema. I could see a pathway to win in the postseason. I can see us continue in these advantages but we have suffered some losses & we haven't cover those losses. IMO we haven't improve but have gotten worse. Yes we got some middle relief help but that's not enough. A lot of your premises is based on hope & hype & that's not enough. I wish I could share your optimism NJ, but I just can't see it.

…….,not trying to beat this to death but sometimes addition by subtraction is an improvement as well.

No Gallo flailing - No Miranda flailing - No watching Jorge Lopez grin after he walked 2 guys and gave up a HR……..3-4 different times - as much as it pains me to point out (a fan) No Nick Gordon stinking it up for 6 weeks out of the gate in ‘24 - No Moran looking great & then walking 2 guys with 2 outs and giving up runs allowing only one single OR starting an inning (while ahead by 1 or 2) with a walk.

Just average performance in the replacement of these guys is a real positive for probable W’s, IMO.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Nationally, who hypes the Twins???

Lewis was part of the plan going into ‘23 with some mild optimism coming off 2 years of ACL tears. Wallner was a maybe call-up & expected to be a middling player. Julien was interesting after the World Baseball Event, big maybe?

Now the #1 - #3 - #7 guys in the line-up 70% of the year this year. Not hope nor hype. They can all play.

Expecting Buxton to contribute more with good health - 40 CF starts & 70 starts at DH - CC hitting 22 HR & .255 BA should be reasonable from the #6 spot in the line-up.

Paddack, is better than Maeda at this point in their careers. Maeda threw 106 innings last year……gotta be able to match that.

Gray is gone - Team was 15-18 in his starts in ‘23. He had an OK 5 inning start & win v. Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor outing v. Astros. Can Varland - Festa - DeSclafani go .500 - that’s the question…I think they can and it’s not hope based.

Bullpen was picked to be Best in the AL by FanGraphs before they picked up Okert. Seen as #3 Pen in the game.

Kirilloff/Santana at 1B should be a solid platoon!

I like their chances because I believe in the talent not because I hope they win a lot because I have a Twins hat.

Not sure how the Team hasn’t improved?

The Twins flood national social media with their hype especially when they fall short of the main goal of making the team better.

We started this off-season in great shape, like I said we have a great core to build upon & I share your enthusiasm about them. I think I'm more optimistic of our inhouse players like Miranda than you are. But I'm less optimistic about the flurry of additions at 5th SP, BP & 1B/DH which are a "dime a dozen" where they think that they can make up quality with quantity & the fans will buy it. We have a good rotation & IMO Ryan & Ober will continue to improve but we lost Gray who is a #1 SP & I'm not sure that Ryan or Ober have it in their upside this season or ever to fill that void. Yes our BP is toward the top of MLB but TX won the World Series with a poor BP. This means BP isn't as important as premium positions SP, CF, SS & catching to win a World Series. SP we need approvement, CF hopefully we're OK, SS we're fine, but at catching even with the addition of Vazquez we are ranked #15 (there is some bias with HRs over defense in WAR & the bulk of WAR came from Jeffers bat) defense should be the focus at catching, here is where we need help. With the addition of Santana, we are ranked at the bottom of 1B & DH. But IMO Kiriloff & Miranda will outshine Santana & later when Julien is moved to 1B/DH we'll be towards the top & Santana will go the way of Gallo, set aside. 

Last year we led the AL in HRs yet the Twins believe the only way to get better is by getting more big bats. Big bats that strike out more. We don't need more HRs when we don't need them in blowout games but by gaining many more wins in close games by clutch hitting and not striking out (which we set a new MLB record) what didn't help us by trading away that has been years our best clutch hitter. We have a great line-up but the Twins hitting philosophy is killing us. Unless we ditch this philosophy we won't advance in the postseason. 

[Riverbrian]

I will give this team a chance to prove themselves just like I do every year. I have off-season concerns... I had off-season concerns last year and the year before that. 

However... no matter my concerns... it will not prevent me from giving this team and every player on it the chance to prove themselves. 

Including Kepler who I would have cut last June. 

[TopGunn#22]

I'm in the camp of JD and Hawkeye.  Although I would point out to Hawkeye that as good as this year's bullpen COULD be, it's hard for ANY Twins bullpen to be better than the 2006 Twins bullpen.  Go back and check the stats.  Joe Nathan anchored it, but there were some tremendous seasons from a LOT of other guys in that bullpen.

I believe that we will see incremental improvement from guys like Julien and Wallner, and the idea they could have 500-550 AB's as opposed to 250 is exciting.  I think Jeffers may hit a little less, but I expect improvement from Vasquez so while we don't have a "STAR" like Rutschmann, Will Smith or JT Realmuto, our combination of Jeffers/Vasquez will be fine.

Can guys like Lewis and Kirilloff stay healthy and have 500-550 AB's or more?  If they do, I think the production will be excellent.  Having a guy like Santana helps because his floor is pretty solid.  We're not going to see Santana putting up         "Gallo-esque" numbers at any time in 2024.  That will even out the lineup.  To me, Lewis remains a huge Wild Card.  If he's healthy all season and putting up the numbers he's capable of, we may have our future Kirby Puckett, who comes through in clutch situations consistently.

Ryan and Ober should continue to be solid, and if Ryan ever puts an entire season together like his first half last year he's a bona- fide #2.  Who knows, the Twins may just come up with a trade to acquire a bona-fide #2 anyway making a potentially good rotation even better.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will be solid contributors this season as well.

But the two key guys for the Twins to be better than good in 2024 are Buxton and Correa.  To me, I WANT to believe that Buxton has an All Star/Gold Glove season.  If he wins a Gold Glove, that means he had the health to play enough to win it.  And if he's healthy for the needed games played to qualify, the production, both offensively and defensively will be there.  But I can't bring myself to believe just yet.

What I CAN believe in, is a bounce back season from Carlos Correa.  We had a fairly solid first season from him.  Last year, for the most part was a major disappointment as he battled plantar fasciitis.  If Correa plays in 150 games, hits .285 with 25 HR's (as he is fully capable of) then I'm pushing my chips to the middle of the table and calling the bet for a World Series.  Correa is the KEY.  Buxton will be icing on the cake, but if Correa has his best season as a Twin this year, I really like our chances with him and Lewis coming to bat in clutch situations.