How Far Has the Twins Rotation Fallen?

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Others may be forgetting that the Twins did not trust Ryan to start G1 of the ALDS on full rest.  

Trust is a weighty word here. 

I also recall that they chose and prepared Ober for that game by not putting him on the roster for the Toronto series. Should we interpret the roster omission as not trusting Ober also?

Isn’t it more likely they trusted both? If both series go the full distance they lined it up so Lopez gets 3 starts, Gray and Ryan 2 starts and Ober 1 start.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As things stand today, the fWAR projection drop of only 2 seems incredibly optimistic.  The Twins SP have 1 high end starter, two middle-of-the road starters, and a whole lot of unproven pitchers and wishful thinking.  Losing Gray and Maeda was bad enough, but replacing them with nothing (Paddack is nothing until he proves it) should scare everyone.

Let's get this straight:

Twins losses:
Gray
Maeda
Pagan
Polanco
Taylor

Gains:
Santana
A few bullpen guys
(DeSclafini is not a gain)

Everything else is the same from last year.  How can anyone expect this team to be anywhere near as good as last year?

The difference that I am counting on is healthy seasons from C-4, Buck and Royce Lewis. That is a big "?". They pitching has lost the most. I hope the pitchers bond together like they appeared to do last year.

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically your gains are Buxton (hope he is healthy), Paddack (hope he performs), Santana (hope age doesn't catch him), Topa (hope he repeats last year as he has never done that), Julien (hope he doesn't see a sophomore slump), Kepler (hope for a second half repeat)...

Thank you for confirming what I said.

I'm just wondering if you are jousting/playing the grumpy old man Gladden routine where he gets down on everything as opposed to the excited happy Gladden who loves everyone and everything?  Gladden's two routines can be funny, in a way.

Or, do you feel the Twins will struggle to be a .500 team?

The post is on the starting pitching. Would you take the five starters from last year versus the five from this year?

2023 = Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda?

2024 = Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack? 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If Ryan's healthy, I think he's capable of being a replacement for Gray. He might not have as impressive numbers on paper in 2024 but I think he can be a legitimate #2 - if healthy.

The rest of it, perhaps overly simplistic, but can Bailey Ober give you in 2024 what Joe Ryan gave you in 2023? Absolutely, yes.

Then they need Paddack and Descalfini to give similar production to what Ober and Kenta did in 2023. Not a stretch, IMHO. Kenta was awful early on.

It begins and ends with Ryan, IYAM. If he takes that next step, the rotation is just fine. If he doesn't, well, then the front office messed up.

[Fatbat]

There shouldn’t be a huge problem if everyone is healthy.

Lopez 190 innings

Ober 160

Ryan 160

Paddack 120

DeSclafani 120

Varland 100

spot starters 100-150

gets you 9-950 SP innings total

of course it looks way better putting Monty in for 190 but we know that wont happen. If we had him we would probably be a top 4 rotation instead of top 12.  

 

[Cris E]

The 2023 rotation performed about as well as could be hoped last year. Grey pitched above his recent ability and health levels, Lopez improved and stayed healthy, Maeda came back from his elbow thing and stayed healthy. Most of the important parts of the bullpen stayed healthy. Mahle went down, Theilbar missed a bunch of time and Ryan learned a hard lesson about telling your training staff when you're not 100%. But the latter two were back for the playoffs. Expecting that level of health and performance is optimistic.  Same with catcher injuries and youngsters like Lewis and Juilien starting their careers strong.

For 2024 I expect we get less from the rotation and more from the bad side of 2023: Correa can finally drive a ball off that bad foot, Buxton's knee let's him dig in and swing hard, Paddack establishes himself in the rotation and Ryan either stays healthy or sits down and doesn't try to grind anything out.  I hope Descalfini is available and decent when the others need to sit for a bit, and I expect a very quick hook in the pen whenever anyone needs a blow because that's why you have 645 relievers on the St Paul roster.

BTW if we can get 130 games of actual health from two of Buxton, Correa and Lewis it'll make far more difference than a Hoskins or Phan signing.  Soooo much hinges on health these days.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Others may be forgetting that the Twins did not trust Ryan to start G1 of the ALDS on full rest.  

Or that he also faded in 2022 when he wasn't hurt.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Trust is a weighty word here. 

I also recall that they chose and prepared Ober for that game by not putting him on the roster for the Toronto series. Should we interpret the roster omission as not trusting Ober also?

Isn’t it more likely they trusted both? If both series go the full distance they lined it up so Lopez gets 3 starts, Gray and Ryan 2 starts and Ober 1 start.

 

Well they gave Ryan a start and pulled him after 2 innings. Not sure that's a great sign of their trust in him.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm just wondering if you are jousting/playing the grumpy old man Gladden routine where he gets down on everything as opposed to the excited happy Gladden who loves everyone and everything?  Gladden's two routines can be funny, in a way.

Or, do you feel the Twins will struggle to be a .500 team?

The post is on the starting pitching. Would you take the five starters from last year versus the five from this year?

2023 = Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda?

2024 = Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack? 

Dan Gladden needs to be fired.

I do feel the Twins will struggle to be .500 this year.

Varland is not penciled into the rotation, Descalfini is.  Although, neither of them have shown anything to earn a spot in an MLB rotation.  I would take last year's rotation again this year every day of the week and twice on Sundays.  Gray will probably see a small regression but will still be strong, Maeda is just solid. 

[jorgenswest]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Well they gave Ryan a start and pulled him after 2 innings. Not sure that's a great sign of their trust in him.

Wasn’t there a day off the next day and it was an elimination game? I am guessing they would have stayed with Lopez longer. Ryan doesn’t reach the Lopez trust bar.  Few would. Ober doesn’t either. 

They went with Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax and Duran. Most managers would be pretty confident with those 5 to carry them the rest of the game in order to stave off elimination. If the Twins were up 2-1 and Ryan pitches longer does that mean they trust him more?

[Karbo]

Gray had an exceptional year last season, and I don't expect him to do that well again. Paddack is the most interesting to me. Can he hold up for 20-25 starts? If so IMO he should be an improvement over what Maeda did last year. Desclafini is such a question to me, but then Varland could go in that spot, maybe even beating him out for the rotation. Ober finally stayed healthy last year and if he does this season, he may be a solid replacement for what Gray would reasonably expected to do. As others have said, the hitting could/should be stronger, and hopefully make up for any deficiency in the starters. I'm not quite as bullish on the pen as others are so they can prove me wrong I hope.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Wasn’t there a day off the next day and it was an elimination game? I am guessing they would have stayed with Lopez longer. Ryan doesn’t reach the Lopez trust bar.  Few would. Ober doesn’t either. 

They went with Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax and Duran. Most managers would be pretty confident with those 5 to carry them the rest of the game in order to stave off elimination. If the Twins were up 2-1 and Ryan pitches longer does that mean they trust him more?

Yes, it does. You try to win every single game in the playoffs. They absolutely should not be saying "eh, it's ok if we lose this game so let's not go with our best strategy to win" in any playoff game. Most managers would prefer to not feel the need to cover 7 innings with your pen in any playoff game.

I want guys you can trust for more than 2 innings in a playoff game. Elimination or not. The Lopez trust bar is the bar I want them to be meeting for at least 3 starting pitchers. It's possible Ryan reaches that bar this year if he can maintain his production for a full year. But they very clearly did not trust him last year. The only bar I care about for the rotation is finding at least 3 guys they trust to go 5+ (preferably 6, but beggars can't be choosers) innings in a playoff game. If you only have 1 you're in trouble. The Twins are banking on Ryan and Ober becoming those guys, it appears. I can definitely see the logic in it. But they haven't reached that bar yet and it makes me nervous that they're putting so much of their playoff hopes in such uncertain hands.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

32 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Dan Gladden needs to be fired.

I do feel the Twins will struggle to be .500 this year.

Varland is not penciled into the rotation, Descalfini is.  Although, neither of them have shown anything to earn a spot in an MLB rotation.  I would take last year's rotation again this year every day of the week and twice on Sundays.  Gray will probably see a small regression but will still be strong, Maeda is just solid. 

I would gladly take that paper bet.  Anything better than 81 wins I win right 😉

[Doctor Gast]

Excuse my nitpicking. Gray & Lopez were both #1 SPs. IMO Ryan are both probably low #2 SPs. To replace Gray we need one of these guys to take a major step to elevate himself to a #1 post-season SP where we can compete in the postseason like last year. I expect both of them to rise up but not to the level to compensate for our loss of Gray. So in order to bring our rotation to the level of last year we need to go outside the organization. Paddack should be good but limited innings. DeSclafani is a loss not only in production but also his playing time blocks our own deserving SPs. Our present rotation should be enough to win the division but at most win only 1 game in the post,

[DocBauer]

Let me start by stating I am NOT going to say "if healthy" as a general term. Any more, that terms should be used for direct individuals only. Since when is "if healthy" only a Twins mantra? Doesn't it apply to ALL teams?

OK, yes, the Twins rotation is going to regress. It's almost guaranteed isn't it? Statistically speaking, how likely is it to repeat as #1 in fWAR in the AL? And yes, losing Gray is a blow. Forget W-L record. That's as much on the rest of the team as anything Gray did or didn't do. It's his quality number of starts and IP that need to be replaced. 

But few comments before I go further. As much credit as Maeda is due, he wasn't very good to start the season except for like 1 start. He needed more rest/time/build up. Keuchel was signed to eat some innings for a team that had the division locked up and wanted to rest guys. He provided about 1 1/2 solid starts. Ryan hurt his groin and didn't tell anyone at first and tried to throw through it. Not a good idea. My only point here being over the course of a 162 game season, there are highs and lows. There are good performances and bad performances. 

Replacing Grays production doesn't have to come from a single performer. It can come in bits and pieces from the rest of the rotation throughout the season. If the Twins rotation would drop only 2 fWAR points when all is said and done, I'd happily dance a jig! (And I don't have a clue how to do so, but I'd try my best). 

Without talking absolutes or guarantees, or super human efforts, how about Lopez is basically the same guy for the whole season and doesn't get any better, but doesn't regress. Ryan avoids unreported groin injuries and can throw for the entire season more like he did for 2/3 of one? How about Ober just repeat what he did last year and not improve? Paddack seems to be healthy, has raised his velocity a tick or two...even in the rotation and not the pen...has always had a great change, and the Twins were working with a new breaking ball right after they got him in 2022. He's got the potential to replace Maeda, possibly do better. What if the Varland we saw for his first 12 career starts is the real deal...with some improvement...and not the guy who had 3 bad starts to end his 2023 time in the rotation and see him sent back to St Paul? Man, I REALLY don't want to play the "what if" game with DeSclafani! I just can't bring myself to say "what if" he's like his 2021 self or first 6 weeks of 2023 self. But how about..."what if Disco is solid and doesn't completely stink"?

Yeah...the rotation is going to regress. I just don't know that the sum of the whole can't make up a decent portion of the part that way lost. Meaning Gray.

The area that does give me pause is the depth. I read about STUFF+ with SWR and a much better 2nd half to his 2023 and his youth. But then I look at his numbers, even the 2nd half numbers, and I'm just not sure what we got. I love Festa a lot, but I don't want him at the ML level until mid season at earliest if possible. I think he needs time. Hoping Headrick grows after jumping from AA and riding the shuttle between the Twins and Saints all season. I think Pierson Ohl might surprise a lot of people this year! But like Festa, I sure don't want to have to use him the first couple of months of the season.

So I am worried about depth. Doesn't mean it won't exist, or that the Twins will necessarily need it early, but it worries me. It's why I think they still might add, but it might be a rebounding veteran on a milb deal with a split deal and an opt out. And why wouldn't you do something like that?

I don't want to stray off the original topic, but the pen looks so much different than this time last year. That's good because the pen wasn't so great early on in 2023. The offense could, rather easily, perform better the first half of 2024 than they did in 2023 simply from Correa being back, Buxton being at least partially back, the presence and continued play...with some bumps in the road but also growth...from Lewis, Wallner, Julien and I'd inlcude AK as will. 

There's a lot of ways to win games and a better pen and offense are part of that. And I do believe they are both improved as of right now. So the rotation is GOING TO regress. But as long as they don't sink in to a mire, and the offense pen are more or less what is expected, the team is going to be OK. Exactly how for the rotation regresses simply won't be known until the season is over. It is nice to know that most sites and pundits looks pretty favorably overall on the Twins staff at this point.

I'm pretty optimistic as a whole for the season, including the rotation.

Healthy permitting. DANG! Just couldn't help myself!  :)

 

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, it does. You try to win every single game in the playoffs. They absolutely should not be saying "eh, it's ok if we lose this game so let's not go with our best strategy to win" in any playoff game. Most managers would prefer to not feel the need to cover 7 innings with your pen in any playoff game.

I want guys you can trust for more than 2 innings in a playoff game. Elimination or not. The Lopez trust bar is the bar I want them to be meeting for at least 3 starting pitchers. It's possible Ryan reaches that bar this year if he can maintain his production for a full year. But they very clearly did not trust him last year. The only bar I care about for the rotation is finding at least 3 guys they trust to go 5+ (preferably 6, but beggars can't be choosers) innings in a playoff game. If you only have 1 you're in trouble. The Twins are banking on Ryan and Ober becoming those guys, it appears. I can definitely see the logic in it. But they haven't reached that bar yet and it makes me nervous that they're putting so much of their playoff hopes in such uncertain hands.

I want three of them also but I doubt there are as many as twenty in the game and very few early in their career. The one they could have had is Burnes and might have him in a package with Lee. I have no idea how you get to three of this caliber pitcher.

I don’t think Gray is one of them either. He worked out of many jams last year early in games. He doesn’t get that chance in an elimination game with the ability to rest the pen.

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, roger said:

How far has the Twins rotation fallen?  Not as far as most of you fear.

Add me to those who believe Ober will be their very solid #2.  You would think his last name was Dangerfield, cause he just can't get no respect. 

And wasn't Ryan their opening day starter a couple years ago?  

I agree, by rate stats Ober was a top 25ish starting pitcher. He’d have been a front of rotation starter on a bad rotation.

[chpettit19]

Just now, jorgenswest said:

I want three of them also but I doubt there are as many as twenty in the game and very few early in their career. The one they could have had is Burnes and might have him in a package with Lee. I have no idea how you get to three of this caliber pitcher.

I don’t think Gray is one of them either. He worked out of many jams last year early in games. He doesn’t get that chance in an elimination game with the ability to rest the pen.

 

 

 

You don't think the Cardinals trust Gray for 5+ innings in the playoffs? You don't think the Twins trusted him for that? I'm not saying they just blindly leave him in there, but they most definitely aren't pre-planning a 2 inning outing. Joe Ryan had no chance of going 5 innings in that game. He could've had a no-no through 3 and they were taking him out. That's very different than someone struggling early and them changing the plans mid-game.

There are plenty of guys trusted to go 5 innings in a playoff game. Elimination or not (again, they should all be treated the same as far I'm concerned). If the Twins can't find 3 guys they don't pre-plan to pull before 5 innings of a playoff game they should just pack it in. That's not a large ask. The Twins 100% would not have run a bullpen game in that situation if it were Sonny Gray coming off a 2.79 in 184 innings season. 2 innings, 1 earned wouldn't have ended his day. That's a massive difference in trust level.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically your gains are Buxton (hope he is healthy), Paddack (hope he performs), Santana (hope age doesn't catch him), Topa (hope he repeats last year as he has never done that), Julien (hope he doesn't see a sophomore slump), Kepler (hope for a second half repeat)...

Thank you for confirming what I said.

You're looking for sure things.  There are never sure things.  This year's top remaining free agent starter, Blake Snell, has two Cy Youngs to his credit.  Undoubtedly he was outstanding in both of those years but pretty darn mediocre in between.  As I said, there are never sure things. 

I think the rotation will be just fine when combined with the improved bullpen and likely better offense. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

There shouldn’t be a huge problem if everyone is healthy.

Lopez 190 innings

Ober 160

Ryan 160

Paddack 120

DeSclafani 120

Varland 100

spot starters 100-150

gets you 9-950 SP innings total

of course it looks way better putting Monty in for 190 but we know that wont happen. If we had him we would probably be a top 4 rotation instead of top 12.  

 

It's not about the number of innings, it's about the quality of them. 

Who's pitching game 2 of the playoffs? The team did everything they could to keep Ryan and Ober out of the games last year.

Hoping for improvement from the starting pitchers doesn't really seem like a plan. There are nine offensive starters and oodles of young guys who have room to grow, expecting improvement from enough of those options to win games seems reasonable. But there's only one starting pitcher each game and a playoff game almost always hinge on him. I'm not hanging my hat on expecting the same improvement from 28-year-old pitchers.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

If Ryan's healthy, I think he's capable of being a replacement for Gray. He might not have as impressive numbers on paper in 2024 but I think he can be a legitimate #2 - if healthy.

The rest of it, perhaps overly simplistic, but can Bailey Ober give you in 2024 what Joe Ryan gave you in 2023? Absolutely, yes.

Then they need Paddack and Descalfini to give similar production to what Ober and Kenta did in 2023. Not a stretch, IMHO. Kenta was awful early on.

It begins and ends with Ryan, IYAM. If he takes that next step, the rotation is just fine. If he doesn't, well, then the front office messed up.

Lopez, ryan, ober all close to 200 innings with 3.20era 1.1 whip … all possible on the upside. Not unrealistic. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Lopez, ryan, ober all close to 200 innings with 3.20era 1.1 whip … all possible on the upside. Not unrealistic. 

That'd give the Twins 3 of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. Sign me up for that result.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Varland is not penciled into the rotation,

Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year.

We each pick our guys, right?

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Lopez, ryan, ober all close to 200 innings with 3.20era 1.1 whip … all possible on the upside. Not unrealistic. 

Yup. For me, its about each guy taking a step up and I think Ryan and Ober can do that. If they do, then the rotation is similar to where it was last year - three guys you feel good about and two that are less of a sure thing.

[DocBauer]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's not about the number of innings, it's about the quality of them. 

Who's pitching game 2 of the playoffs? The team did everything they could to keep Ryan and Ober out of the games last year.

Hoping for improvement from the starters doesn't really seem like a plan. There are nine offensive starters and oodles of young guys who have room to grow, expecting improvement from enough of those options to win games seems reasonable. But there's only one starting pitcher each game and a playoff game almost always hinge on him. I'm not hanging my hat on expecting the same improvement from 28-year-old pitchers.

To be fair, I believe there are 2 different debates taking place here. One is the regular season rotation and how good it might be, and pending results. But that's a little different than the debate of who the #2 starter would be in a playoff game. At least, as of now.

Both are fair questions, but slightly different topics. Which is fine, we can address both at once I think.

In regard to Ryan being passed over for Ober initially, it's my understanding they felt Ober was the better matchup in that game as Ryan is a bit more of a flyball pitcher and they thought Ober was the better choice. Ryan did get a start, it just didn't go very well. 

Me personally, I'm not going to blast either Ryan or Ober for a pair of bad starts in their very first playoff games, especially considering they were both instrumental to the Twins even reaching the playoffs. And I'm also not going to say anything negative about Gray as a veteran and Cy Young runner up having a bad game. It happens. But it does go to show that the young arm and the veteran arm can both have bad performances. 

I might come across as flippant or dismissive...and I don't mean to...but right now I'm worried about 162 game season and taking the ALC with a hopeful 90 win team that is balanced between the rotation, pen, and lineup. I'll be more concerned about who starts in the playoffs come mid year at the earliest at this point.

[Fatbat]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That'd give the Twins 3 of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. Sign me up for that result.

Considering their career progression, it’s certainly possible. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Fatbat said:

Considering their career progression, it’s certainly possible. 

It'll make for a heck of a 4 year run if it happens.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Yup. For me, its about each guy taking a step up and I think Ryan and Ober can do that. If they do, then the rotation is similar to where it was last year - three guys you feel good about and two that are less of a sure thing.

If those guys step up to 180+ innings of 3.2 ERA the rotation is way better than last year's no matter who pitches the rest of the innings (within reason). You put 3 top 10 pitchers in any rotation and it's better than what the Twins had last year. You're talking Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux if those guys reach those numbers (adjusted for era, obviously). Those 3 guys alone at those numbers would match the fWAR of last year's entire rotation.

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

To be fair, I believe there are 2 different debates taking place here. One is the regular season rotation and how good it might be, and pending results. But that's a little different than the debate of who the #2 starter would be in a playoff game. At least, as of now.

Both are fair questions, but slightly different topics. Which is fine, we can address both at once I think.

In regard to Ryan being passed over for Ober initially, it's my understanding they felt Ober was the better matchup in that game as Ryan is a bit more of a flyball pitcher and they thought Ober was the better choice. Ryan did get a start, it just didn't go very well. 

Me personally, I'm not going to blast either Ryan or Ober for a pair of bad starts in their very first playoff games, especially considering they were both instrumental to the Twins even reaching the playoffs. And I'm also not going to say anything negative about Gray as a veteran and Cy Young runner up having a bad game. It happens. But it does go to show that the young arm and the veteran arm can both have bad performances. 

I might come across as flippant or dismissive...and I don't mean to...but right now I'm worried about 162 game season and taking the ALC with a hopeful 90 win team that is balanced between the rotation, pen, and lineup. I'll be more concerned about who starts in the playoffs come mid year at the earliest at this point.

We have the talent assembled. Poor performance will only be a reflection of health. Because we are a largely young team, we should expect upside career progression throughout the team. Not many on here expect our starters to progress to the upside in their prime years. I shake my head by all the doom and gloom.  Health is going to be the driving component to success in the 162 and upside career progression is going to win in October. 

[DocBauer]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year.

We each pick our guys, right?

 

I'm a big Varland guy. I don't know if he's got the potential to be a #3, or only a #4-5 type. But I'm a believer if he can just keep the ball in the park better than he did last season.

I keep shouting this out, but I don't think a lot of people realize that in his first 12 GS over 2022 and 2023, he had a sub 4.00 ERA and solid H/IP and WHIP. It was his last 3 starts in 2023 that skewed some of his numbers. He keeps the ball in the yard better he's got a chance to be pretty good.

I'd take a low 4 ERA. And I'd love 180 IP. He might have the build for it, but as a young guy still gaining experience/knowledge I doubt he'd be allowed to throw that many. Maybe more like 160? But I'd be fine with that too.

While I don't always agree with it, I do understand the approach by the FO in cases like this. IF DeSclafini can come anything close to his 2021 and early 2023 self, you have a solid, quality, veteran arm and Varland in reserve for when someone goes down. And even if it's not a major injury, someone always goes down. But if you place Varland in the rotation and something happens, now who do you turn to? SWR? Festa? Dobnak? A 30yo journeyman you signed to help out your AAA club?

I don't always like their approach. But I do understand it.