Do Any Teams Value Max Kepler More Than the Twins?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have attempted to trade Max Kepler for multiple years but haven’t received what the team views as his perceived value. So, what value does he provide the Twins for 2024, and is there still a chance he will be moved this winter?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler stands alone as the longest-tenured Twins player following Jorge Polanco’s departure from the organization. Both players signed as 16-year-olds on the international market back in 2009. They grew up and spent half their lives in the Twins organization. Kepler’s time in the organization is also nearing an end with one more year of team control, but rumors have swirled about him being traded for multiple seasons. 

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Mariners inquired about adding Kepler to the Polanco trade. Seattle would have needed to add more to the trade to even out the value. However, the Kepler side of the deal didn’t gain steam, and the teams ended up agreeing to terms for the players in the Polanco deal. Because of his expiring contract, Kepler’s name will be tied to trade rumors until the trade deadline passes later this summer. It becomes a complicated situation with the value he can still provide the Twins, but that amount is shrinking the longer they hold on to him.  

Kepler’s Value to the Twins
The Twins front office has highly regarded Kepler when teams have inquired about him via trade. He’s coming off one of his best offensive seasons as he hit .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 22 doubles, two triples, and 24 home runs. His overall numbers don’t tell the story of his 2023 campaign. At the All-Star Break, Kepler was hitting around .200 with a .688 OPS, and there were conversations about whether a younger player should replace him. His second half was tremendous as he morphed into one of Minnesota’s best offensive performers with a .926 OPS. Those totals were better than his numbers in his breakout 2019 season. 

Looking at Minnesota’s roster, there is a need for Kepler, mainly if he can produce like he did in the second half. Currently, Kepler projects to be the team’s regular right fielder, with Matt Wallner getting regular time in left field. The Twins’ other corner outfield options include Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach. Castro is coming off a season where he posted a 106 OPS+ and gave the team 2.6 WAR. Gordon and Larnach suffered through disappointing seasons, so it’s hard for the team to hand them a starting job. If the Twins shifted to one of these players, there would be a downgrade in performance compared to Kepler. 

Kepler’s Value to Other Teams
Kepler has one year remaining of team control for a team-friendly $10 million. According to FanGraphs, Kepler has provided the Twins with more than $10 million in value in every full season since 2016. Last year, he was worth over $20 million, the second-highest total of his career. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify the surplus value associated with players who could be potentially traded. Kepler’s surplus value comes in at $8 million, slightly lower than Polanco’s $9.4 million, but he has an extra year of team control. 

If the Twins traded Kepler, there are free agent outfielders that might be a better fit on the Twins roster because they are right-handed. There has been a need on the Twins roster for a power-hitting outfielder for multiple seasons, but the club hasn’t found a fit. Jorge Soler, Adam Duval, and Tommy Pham are all still available and would be solid right-handed hitters who can play in the outfield. Soler hit 36 home runs for the Marlins last season and posted a 1.080 OPS against left-handed pitching. Duval combined for a 119 OPS+ and played all three outfield positions. Pham was a playoff hero for the Diamondbacks and had trade rumors connecting him to the Twins in the past. 

Kepler can continue to provide the Twins with value this season, but the roster is hardly complete at this juncture of the offseason. It would make sense to trade Kepler if Minnesota spends money on a right-handed bat.

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Will the Twins still consider trading Kepler? How much value does he have in a trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

Trade Max to Houston for Bryan Abreu. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Kepler has higher value to the Twins at the moment as there is no true successor in the wings.  Kepler will be your starting RF on opening day.  Depending on how the season goes, he may be a deadline trade candidate.

Of course this goes all out the window if the Twins continue to not care about winning this season...

[Elite Benchwarmer]

I hope they keep Max to start the season.  If he can deliver anything close to his 2023 2nd half, he will either help lead the Twins to winning the division or his value will be higher in July than it is in February.

I also hope to see a Wallner, Buxton, Kepler outfield for a 100 games or so.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade Max to Houston for Bryan Abreu. 

I’d trade him for someone like Forrest Whitley if they would be open to it. He seems like someone that could use a fresh start. Could probably add something to it potentially 

[CRF]

I don't know if we really know for certain that they've attempted to trade him. Sure, it's been rumored that they have, but he's still here. If a team wants to move, or trade someone, they find a way to make it happen. 

[Parfigliano]

Trying to trade him for years and still a Twin.  Twins value him higher then other teams offers.  Have there even been offers?  If so what was offered?  I dont think we know.

[Jocko87]

I doubt he's traded at all at this point. I think he sticks all year as there isn't an option that can replace him on both sides of the ball outside Bellinger.

I still want to know what happened in the come to Jesus meeting he had with Rocco mid season.  He's been an all star ever since. So long as Rocco still has his full attention, he's a key cog for the squad. A full season of the second half version is worth a qualifying offer as well.  Keep him.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

There is no one else we have to replace him with.  Polanco was a focus because you already have Julien and then Farmer as your utility.  There just isn't another outfielder that you can guarantee an effective above average player in right field.  Add in he may have figured things out.  If so,  a team trading for him,  would have to trade for that version.  If he performs similarly to that 2nd half,  you also have the option at a qualifying offer after this season.  Its a possibility and a question and will not go much more into it as I have hashed that fairly well.   The trade threshold is extremely high on Kepler, and honestly it is apparent they plan to keep him for this season and I think that is the right decision.  

[jorgenswest]

Lewis has the tools to be a very good outfielder. Play him LF and move Wallner to RF. Sell high Kepler and get back something that improves the pitching. They have options at 3B including Castro, Miranda, Lee and Martin.

Would Lewis be willing to play outfield? I don’t doubt the confidence he has in his abilities and his willingness to help the team. I get how coming back from the injury last year without spring training they were careful about his use. He needs to be where he helps the team the most.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Lewis has the tools to be a very good outfielder. Play him LF and move Wallner to RF. Sell high Kepler and get back something that improves the pitching. They have options at 3B including Castro, Miranda, Lee and Martin.

Would Lewis be willing to play outfield? I don’t doubt the confidence he has in his abilities and his willingness to help the team. I get how coming back from the injury last year without spring training they were careful about his use. He needs to be where he helps the team the most.

Just a totally wild guess, but Lewis has probably already played his last game as an outfielder.

[LA Vikes Fan]

The long-term play should be for Lewis or Kirilloff to move to LF, Wallner to RF, and Brooks Lee to come up and play 2B or 3B, Julien to 1B if Lee plays 2B and Lewis 3B. In other words, some combination where Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Lee handle the 2B, 3B, 1B, and LF spots on a daily basis. That's post 2024 though, certainly no earlier than after the ASB this year. That short term play that could move that timeline up if we can trade Max plus a not top 10 prospect or two for a young starting pitcher with #2/3 upside like a Miller or Woo from Seattle, Luzardo from Miami, etc. The pitching market is so hot and overvalued that I just don't think that's even close to possible. 

Bottom line is Max is here for 2024, probably hitting in the 4-6 slots. I'm ok with that unless they can trade him for pitching.    

[Boswell]

Rather strange that the Twins seemed to have agreed to his request to not play CF.    So it goes. 
 

We’ll find out in April if the boys are ready to play some baseball, or if an upstart like the Tigers will put it all together!

[roger]

Nowhere in your discussion do you talk about Kep's defense.  Defense matters!

[Otwins]

Adding Santana does make it possible to move Kiriloff back to the outfield for a year. They would have to get an awful good offer for Kepler before looking at that option.

 

[DocBauer]

It's clear the Twins value Kepler, but I don't know that they over value him. He's almost always played really good defense, run the bases well, and despite a bad and disappointing 2 1/2 years with the bat, he's always been CAPABLE of suddenly turning it around. That happened about mid season last year. 

Seattle wanting him AND Polanco shows that other teams DO value him as well. Now, I've been saying he should only be moved in a deal this season because the OF is pretty barren if he's gone as all the prospects are pretty much AA to begin 2024, or lower. 

BUT, having heard that Seattle would have gone bigger on their end for a deal that included Polanco and Kepler... plus another piece or two possibly on the Twins end...if it brought back one of the Mariner's top arms on a 3 or 4 for 1 deal, I think they should have pulled the trigger.

Then, grab a RH FA OF on a 1yr, put Wallner in RF, probably use Larnach as part of a platoon in LF, and go a little wild and dangerous and check out Helman and Prato as OF possibles to be added to the 40 man and just see what you can cobble together. That's not to say I WANT to move Kepler and possibly scramble the OF, but I'd rather have the top of the rotation arm and figure piece together the OF a little bit here and there.

Just my thoughts.

But I think it's clear other teams do value Kepler. I don't know about less than the Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade Max to Houston for Bryan Abreu. 

Maybe they’ll throw in Tucker as well.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Just a totally wild guess, but Lewis has probably already played his last game as an outfielder.

Is LF more physically demanding than 3B ……is that the general consensus? Just wondering why other than he got hurt in CF?

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is LF more physically demanding than 3B ……is that the general consensus? Just wondering why other than he got hurt in CF?

You would have to ask Falvey, Baldelli, Boras, and Lewis that question. 

[jorgenswest]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You would have to ask Falvey, Baldelli, Boras, and Lewis that question. 

Somebody already has. From a John Shipley article as he was returning from injury during the 2023 season.

Quote

“Not something we’re focused on right now in the short term,” Falvey said. “Obviously, we would revisit those types of conversations in the offseason, but I don’t think we’re there right now.”

 

[JD-TWINS]

42 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

It's clear the Twins value Kepler, but I don't know that they over value him. He's almost always played really good defense, run the bases well, and despite a bad and disappointing 2 1/2 years with the bat, he's always been CAPABLE of suddenly turning it around. That happened about mid season last year. 

Seattle wanting him AND Polanco shows that other teams DO value him as well. Now, I've been saying he should only be moved in a deal this season because the OF is pretty barren if he's gone as all the prospects are pretty much AA to begin 2024, or lower. 

BUT, having heard that Seattle would have gone bigger on their end for a deal that included Polanco and Kepler... plus another piece or two possibly on the Twins end...if it brought back one of the Mariner's top arms on a 3 or 4 for 1 deal, I think they should have pulled the trigger.

Then, grab a RH FA OF on a 1yr, put Wallner in RF, probably use Larnach as part of a platoon in LF, and go a little wild and dangerous and check out Helman and Prato as OF possibles to be added to the 40 man and just see what you can cobble together. That's not to say I WANT to move Kepler and possibly scramble the OF, but I'd rather have the top of the rotation arm and figure piece together the OF a little bit here and there.

Just my thoughts.

But I think it's clear other teams do value Kepler. I don't know about less than the Twins.

I’m not pushing Max out the door either - one of 5 guys in the game to hit .300 or better with 30 XBH in the 2nd half of ‘23. That’s special!

However, if we traded Arraez to get Lopez, something has probably got to give to obtain a really good pitcher. Somebody needs a good RF - that has offensive upside. (ha ha, maybe the Twins) To me, trade DeSclafani (may have to send some $$ along?) - Kepler - our compensatory pick from Gray……… maybe another marginal (Headrick/Winder?) arm for something of value and we shed salary but realize other team is taking on salary……….get back “whoever” of value. Maybe a highly rated prospect even?……………:moving Max’s salary for some value is the real bottom line - for any position - the rest of what Twins trade is just noise.

Take the $$ saved and apply it to signing Jordan Montgomery……… Realistic??

I think Wallner goes to RF (obviously) and Lewis to LF ultimately when Lee’s ready to play 3B. In the meantime, piece LF together with Larnach/Gordon/Martin/Castro……. with the latter 3 helping Buxton in CF as well.

Martin can come up & down as needed, doubtful he’s in 26 man out of Spring Training.

Maybe they wait until deadline and get a probable lesser pitcher and give up more trade assets…………risky,  and lower value for a Win Now approach!

[Fatbat]

Kep is worth alot and more to us because no one will want to give up his real worth ($18M.) 2.5-3.WAR  The FO wont give up that kind of WAR value/salary and other teams wont over pay. Kep likely stays, has an allstar year and gets a QO offer and turns it down. 

[Blyleven2011]

Kepler has been  very good as a right fielder  , if he had some gold gloves on his resume other teams would value him higher ...

As it is the Twins value him higher  , we get to see him almost everyday in right field and he has some outstanding years on defense ,  that he should have a good glove is a given  ...

Oliva  and Kepler are my choices for best twin right fielders ...

[TL]

I don't see how you trade him at this point. We don't need outfield prospects - have plenty of those. And I don't think a right-handed bat is really needed if we can count on a bounce back from Correa, better health from Buxton, the Sanata signing and the emergence of Lewis and Jeffers. His value on the roster this year (and maybe next) outweighs what we likely get in a trade. 

[Otaknam]

18 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I continue to believe that this FO has him over-valued and that is why he has not been traded.  If we could find a similar RH corner outfielder that we would acquire for him that would be ideal.  The other option would be to trade Kepler plus a prospect for a #2/#3 pitcher and sign a RH corner OF'er off the FA market.

That said, I think he is valued so high by this FO that he will not be traded.  Nobody will give the FO what they want for him and frankly, if we see the 2023 second-half of Kepler, I am fine keeping him.

I don’t think the front office overvalues him, aside from the fact that there is no obvious replacement currently on the team. The FO will of course point to last year’s resurgence and Kepler’s strong defense in any trade talks, hoping to sell high. Because Kepler had several mediocre seasons before his second half surge in 2023, other teams must be hesitant to believe he can repeat it. 

[Jocko87]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is LF more physically demanding than 3B ……is that the general consensus? Just wondering why other than he got hurt in CF?

Third baseman get bigger contracts than left fielders. That's it.

[tony&rodney]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Somebody already has. From a John Shipley article as he was returning from injury during the 2023 season.

 

Ok. Good. So now you have your answer.

[tony&rodney]

30 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Third baseman get bigger contracts than left fielders. That's it.

Juan Soto?

[Jocko87]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Juan Soto?

Skews the average.  Lewis ain't Soto. 

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Skews the average.  Lewis ain't Soto. 

You are correct. It does put any numbers out of whack. I have not looked at salaries for corner outfielders versus third basemen. Soto just popped into my head. 

i think that all of the comments from Falvey, Baldelli, and Boras (notably not Lewis) about Royce staying where he is (3B) are related to wanting Lewis to be prepared at one spot and comfortable coming into what everyone hopes will be a full season for the former #1-1 pick.