Did Colt Keith Deal, Jorge Polanco Trade Pave the Way for a Pre-Debut Brooks Lee Deal?

[Hunter McCall]

This weekend, the division rival Detroit Tigers locked up one of their top prospects for the foreseeable future. Could the Twins strike a similar deal with one of their own?

Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Tigers infield prospect Colt Keith capped off a good week on Sunday by signing an extension with the team that keeps him under team control through the 2032 season. The extension is officially a six-year deal worth $28.6 million, with club options for $10 million, $13 million, and $15 million in the following seasons. Earlier in the week, Keith appeared as the No. 22 overall prospect on MLB Pipeline’s newest prospect ranking list.

Also featured on MLB Pipeline’s list was Twins infield prospect Brooks Lee. Lee clocked in on the list at No. 18, just ahead of Keith. Lee is a similar case study, in more ways than one. Both prospects are 22 years old and likely to play second or third base in the major leagues. Both players’ bats are their best tool, and both are relatively similarly ranked on many prospect lists, as they are on MLB Pipeline’s. With similarities in the player profiles, could the Twins pursue a similar extension?

Extending a prospect is an excellent way to get a discount on a good player by paying more for him right now. In the case of Keith, the Tigers will be paying him a higher salary over the next few years than they would have had they let him play on his rookie contract. Still, assuming he performs the way the team hopes, they will be paying him less in the later years than they would have if they had waited to extend him later in his career. It’s a relatively low-risk move that guarantees you control that player, in this case, for the next nine seasons.

The main difference between Keith and Lee is Keith is likely to be Detroit’s Opening Day second baseman in 2024. He fills a direct need for the team and has a spot for the foreseeable future. Lee has a more complicated path to playing time. Just this weekend, GM Thad Levine said he was likely to open the season in Triple A, with the St. Paul Saints.

The Twins plan for infielder Brooks Lee — No. 18 overall prospect, per @MLBPipeline — to begin 2024 at Triple-A, GM Thad Levine told @MLBNetworkRadio today.

Levine continued: “When he tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues.” @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 28, 2024

There are questions about whether Lee can play shortstop, which Carlos Correa occupies anyway, so it wouldn’t matter if he were adequately equipped for the position; there isn't a path to playing time at shortstop on the MLB roster. The way Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien performed last season, one would assume second and third base are also spoken for, and just like that, the path to playing time narrows.

On the other hand, we knew that logjam would have to start breaking up at some point, and on Monday night, it did. With Jorge Polanco traded, the extra infielder penciled into the roster for Opening Day (Kyle Farmer) is of lower quality, has less gravitas within the organization, and doesn't do some of the things Lee could do for the team as soon as this spring.

The Twins could move Lee or Julien to first base to get both guys on the field. Still, with the defensive improvements Julien made throughout the year, the Twins may be reluctant to move him off his position, and it's hard to bank on extending a player and then trying to teach him a brand-new position. Even if they did consider such a move, a healthy Alex Kirilloff and José Miranda will also be battling for at-bats at first base. Mix in the potential arrival of prospects like Yunior Severino and Austin Martin, and you can see why the Twins might be hesitant to make a long-term commitment to Lee, especially when the team has needs and Lee is a great trade token.

The path to a facsimile of the Keith deal opens up if the Twins decide that Lee is, in fact, the second baseman of the future. Moving Polanco is the first and simplest step along that path, but it's a step, nonetheless. To advance further, they'd need to move either Julien or Kirilloff, as well. By committing to Lee, the team guarantees him a spot on the major-league roster and an everyday role. Why would they start his controllable clock and pay extra money to him if they wanted to keep him in the minors? By extending Lee, the team would need to cut down the logjam in other ways.

There's an incentive for Lee to work for an extension as well, as it guarantees that he won't be traded and will have a role with the team for the future. It shows the team's real and abiding faith in him, and puts a price tag on it. If the Twins think Lee is the best available option, Lee will almost certainly be willing to work with the team to get an extension done. He would be rewarded with a fast track and financial security for the following number of seasons. The catch, of course, is that Lee was the 8th overall pick in 2022, whereas Keith was taken out of high school in 2020, in the fourth round of a truncated draft. Lee got more than 10 times as much than Keith did to sign at the front door of professional baseball, so the Twins wouldn't enjoy as much leverage as the Tigers did in dealing with their young infielder.

With the pros and cons of a potential extension laid out, the question remains: should the Twins pursue an extension? The answer is unsatisfying: Maybe. If the Twins have a plan that guarantees Lee an everyday role, and the team doesn't believe they can package him for a starter they deem worthy of losing him for, then they should absolutely extend Lee. He’s likely to be a solid everyday player, and if the team can lock that up for the long haul for a relatively cheap price (as the Tigers did with Keith), then they should. However, if they have questions about where the puzzle pieces will fall in, they must seriously consider finding a trade partner.

What are your thoughts on offering Brooks Lee an extension similar to Colt Keith's? Should the team pursue a trade instead? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[Karbo]

Lee has a lot to prove before I offer him an extension. I would like to see how AK and Miranda look this spring. I can easily see one of them as trade bait if healthy.

[HrbieFan]

This FO has been adverse to that type of signing. I wish they had locked up Royce for 6+ years thus off season. Don't see the moves being correlated at all 

[MinnInPa]

Lee, to me , will be an absolute All Star caliber player for many years..Face of a franchise type.  So,, dont even consider trading him. He will be up quickly this year..playing 2B and SS.. be a nice rotation of Correa, Lee and Julien alternating at DH..and occasional days off

[Doctor Gast]

I wouldn't even think about an extension until he debuts. FO has made a move to make Julien the full-time 2B, is this wreckless move only temporary until Lee is ready for MLB? None of this makes sense so it's hard to try to understand what's the FO's plans are. Correa, Lewis & Lee should be our long-term INF, but I don't put it past this FO to go a different route.

[Trov]

I find it unlikely this FO to do a pre-MLB debut deal with anyone.  They are becoming more common but still very rare. 

[Patzky]

19 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Lee, to me , will be an absolute All Star caliber player for many years..Face of a franchise type.  So,, dont even consider trading him. He will be up quickly this year..playing 2B and SS.. be a nice rotation of Correa, Lee and Julien alternating at DH..and occasional days off

The Twins are fortunate to have three or four faces of the franchise! Lewis.. Pablo.. Lee.. Correa? Jenkins? Duran? All in various stages of ripening.. it's exciting.

[2wins87]

The kind of deal Keith got, I think would be reasonable.  The Tigers are guaranteeing something like a 4.5, 8, 13 arbitration schedule, with a couple club options which is only upside for the Tigers.

I think Lee is more likely to be good than great, I don't think an extension is something they have to do.   But if he was willing to sign an extension that guaranteed him the money at a relatively low cost I would be in favor.

Given the schedule Lee is on, he could get super 2 status, so a 7 year guarantee for somewhat more money might be more natural. 

I'm not sure how many prospects in Lee's situation would take an equivalent of the Keith deal.  If most were willing to take it, we would probably see it a lot.  There's not all that much downside for the team on a deal like that.

[Fatbat]

Lee getting a contract deal is maybe 40% chance. Lee getting traded is a .04% chance. The FO is cheap and will milk the rookie deals as long as they can. 

[Nashvilletwin]

The “logjam” is easily solved when Lee arrives: Lee play 2B with Julien spelling him as needed. Julien and Kiriloff interchange play 1B and DH. When we are facing a lefty, Castro starts in CF, Buxton DHs (to get the RH bats in there and because we know Buxton can’t play everyday in CF), and either Julien or Kiriloff comes off the bench as a PH to face a right handed reliever.  Farmer is available to be a defensive substitute at 1B if desired.  Easy peasy. 

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The “logjam” is easily solved when Lee arrives: Lee play 2B with Julien spelling him as needed. Julien and Kiriloff interchange play 1B and DH. When we are facing a lefty, Castro starts in CF, Buxton DHs (to get the RH bats in there and because we know Buxton can’t play everyday in CF), and either Julien or Kiriloff comes off the bench as a PH to face a right handed reliever.  Farmer is available to be a defensive substitute at 1B if desired.  Easy peasy. 

I don't think turning Julien into a role player is the proper solution. It also doesn't really make sense to have Kirilloff and Julien split time at 1B as they're both left handed. I think an easier solution is trading Lee, playing Julien at second with Farmer and Severino to platoon against lefties, play Kirilloff at first with Miranda to platoon against lefties, and try to maximize the return on Lee. Even with Polanco gone I think the Twins have more than enough infield depth to offset losing him and I think the return could make the Twins a lot better. Just my opinion.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Lee is not a guy we need to extend, yet. Lewis and Julien, yes. 

We just dumped Polanco. Lee isn't ready for ML, yet. We presently do not have a logjam, if you ever really have one. Lewis will play 3B, Correa SS, as long as they are healthy and able to. Right now Julien is our 2B. In the future, 2025, Lee will become 2B and Julien will likely shift to 1B. Julien will spell Lee at 2B and Kiriloff will split time at 1B and COF, is how I see it shaking out. Miranda if he can come back will back up 3B and some 1B as well. Farmer will be gone after 2024. There is no logjam, things were thinned out a lot after the trade of Jorge Polanco. The only logjam is at the bottom. Nick Gordon will also very likely be gone, trade or release and Larnach will serve as AAA/ML depth.

Soon Jenkins and E Rodriguez will be ready and up. We will have room for their talents too when that time comes.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Lee has a lot to prove before I offer him an extension. I would like to see how AK and Miranda look this spring. I can easily see one of them as trade bait if healthy.

The whole point is to get an agreement before he proves anything, hence the discount.

I'd be all for it but the numbers would be double what Keith got, approximately.  Their profiles are completely different, pedigree is the main factor here.  Lee is closer to what Churio got.  I'd still be for it.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The whole point is to get an agreement before he proves anything, hence the discount.

I'd be all for it but the numbers would be double what Keith got, approximately.  Their profiles are completely different, pedigree is the main factor here.  Lee is closer to what Churio got.  I'd still be for it.

Colt Keith is slightly younger and has done more in professional baseball than Brooks Lee. They're both ranked quite similarly in prospect rankings (Brooks 18, Colt 22 on MLB Pipeline). I think Brooks would have an incredibly hard time convincing the Twins he's worth twice what Colt is. 

[Mike Sixel]

"When he tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues.” 

Ya, not until someone gets hurt, they've shown that over and over. 

As for the idea, no. Lee is not signing this kind of deal. He's been hyped and prepped for a long time, and is 1 year from being drafted. He's betting on himself, easy. 

[Heiny]

I would prefer to give Lee the extension and trade Julien for pitching, "IF" Lee were ready now.  But, that seems a little risky at this point.  Maybe an extension next year would be a better option.  But I do believe we still have some good trade pieces for pitching right now.  Namely Kirilloff, Miranda, Larnach, Raya, Gonzalez, Farmer, Gordon, Schobel, Kepler,  Not all of course, but we have alot of real talent.  I would not however trade Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or Rodriquez unless the return was for top end young SP with multiple years of control.  And even then I probably wouldn't like it.  Just my take.

[nicksaviking]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Colt Keith is slightly younger and has done more in professional baseball than Brooks Lee. They're both ranked quite similarly in prospect rankings (Brooks 18, Colt 22 on MLB Pipeline). I think Brooks would have an incredibly hard time convincing the Twins he's worth twice what Colt is. 

Yeah, I don't care about the prospect rankings, Keith just crushed in a league that Lee struggled at a bit. 

I'm not trying to be a huge downer, but I think the expectations of Lee is a bit much. He just doesn't look to have a high ceiling. Unlike Keith, he only has moderate power and his on base skills are good, but not top end.

Lee is almost certainly ranked higher right now because of draft equity, and that would work against a long term extension. Lee already got a pretty big payday for being a high draft pick. With money to fall back on, these guys tend to bet on themselves more often.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I don't care about the prospect rankings, Keith just crushed in a league that Lee struggled at a bit. 

I'm not trying to be a huge downer, but I think the expectations of Lee is a bit much. He just doesn't look to have a high ceiling. Unlike Keith, he only has moderate power and his on base skills are good, but not top end.

Lee is almost certainly ranked higher right now because of draft equity, and that would work against a long term extension. Lee already got a pretty big payday for being a high draft pick. With money to fall back on, these guys tend to bet on themselves more often.

I'm not a big prospect rankings guy, but people love them. Way too many ways to rank guys that I don't think those lists are all that useful. But I'm with you on the tempering expectations thing on Lee. I don't see a star even though I hope he becomes that. I see really good regular for a decade with a spike year All Star appearance. Which is absolutely a wonderful outcome, and I'm excited to have him. I just don't see this franchise cornerstone star others seem to see. But it's something I'm more than happy to be wrong about.

If they can get Lee to sign that Keith deal I think they should do it. I don't think they can, and I'm sure he'd want more. I just don't think he's worth more right now. I'm all for the early extensions, in general. I'd lock up Lewis for a decade right now if I could. I think it's the best way for teams that won't (or can't depending on your view) spend big dollars to build an actual WS threat. But I get that it's a pretty sizeable risk and understand why teams don't lean into it often. But if you nail those kind of extensions for a handful of guys you really open yourself up to way more possibilities in team building.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Colt Keith is slightly younger and has done more in professional baseball than Brooks Lee. They're both ranked quite similarly in prospect rankings (Brooks 18, Colt 22 on MLB Pipeline). I think Brooks would have an incredibly hard time convincing the Twins he's worth twice what Colt is. 

I would argue he's done equal or less in pro ball than Brooks considering the time served.  100 games isn't a lot when Lee has 3 years of college to compare and is less than 200 days older.  Lee has a much larger body of work, better pedigree and done nothing to hurt his stock.  In these type deals, pedigree matters more than results.  Minor league results are a crapshoot anyway.

There is a huge difference between knowing Lee is coming vs thinking Kieth should be pretty good.  Their prospect rankings only converged this year after  Kieth finally sniffed top 100 (98, in one place) last year. 

It may not be double, but it's a lot more.  

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I don't think turning Julien into a role player is the proper solution. It also doesn't really make sense to have Kirilloff and Julien split time at 1B as they're both left handed. I think an easier solution is trading Lee, playing Julien at second with Farmer and Severino to platoon against lefties, play Kirilloff at first with Miranda to platoon against lefties, and try to maximize the return on Lee. Even with Polanco gone I think the Twins have more than enough infield depth to offset losing him and I think the return could make the Twins a lot better. Just my opinion.

Julien is a 3.1 - 3.6 WAR guy in year two with a full season of AB’s v. RH pitching and a sprinkling of lefties. That’s with no contribution from defense. Can’t trade nor move him in the near term…………Kirilloff hit .270 & had 11 HR in about 1/2 a season with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ …. he’s playing 1B in ‘24! BOTH have 22-25 HR power over a season.

CC is at Shortstop.

Lewis, to me, is the athlete that can be flexible defensively. I target him in LF & 1B for ‘25. In ‘24 he could play some of each and the majority…..certainly, v. every left hander at 3B.

Wallner, long term in RF.

Ultimately, based on organization comments here at TD and deep dive stats guys, Lee grades out best at 3B if he can’t play SS.

Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff

Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in 2025.

This year Lee can spell Lewis at 3B v. RH pitching some and allow Lewis to DH some……..maybe even a few games in LF. I don’t see him up in the Show until he’s tearing the cover off in St. Paul for at least 2-3 weeks! Probably late May or June. He’ll need a roster opening.

[JD-TWINS]

Can’t extend Lee with last year’s brief stint & limited success at AAA.

If guys are extended, given offers to consider, Lewis - Julien - Jeffers should be up first IMO.

[SaberNerd]

One of the big factors to consider in early extensions is how much the player signed for initially.  Keith was a 5th round pick who signed for 500K, so him signing this deal gives him "Set for life" money.  Lee got 5.6M, so it's a lot easier for him to bet on himself when he already has a lot in the bank.  Players who aren't financially set are much more likely to give up expected earnings in exchange for guaranteed ones

[cmoss84]

Sure! Give Lee 9/90! Seems like a well-calculated risk...

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, SaberNerd said:

One of the big factors to consider in early extensions is how much the player signed for initially.  Keith was a 5th round pick who signed for 500K, so him signing this deal gives him "Set for life" money.  Lee got 5.6M, so it's a lot easier for him to bet on himself when he already has a lot in the bank.  Players who aren't financially set are much more likely to give up expected earnings in exchange for guaranteed ones

5th round pick v. 5th pick is a spread as well & a reason for Keith to gain security while the iron is hot. My comments were in relation to the number of young’s guys that could/can be key contributors, Lee probably isn’t the first guy that the Club tries to extend.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I would argue he's done equal or less in pro ball than Brooks considering the time served.  100 games isn't a lot when Lee has 3 years of college to compare and is less than 200 days older.  Lee has a much larger body of work, better pedigree and done nothing to hurt his stock.  In these type deals, pedigree matters more than results.  Minor league results are a crapshoot anyway.

There is a huge difference between knowing Lee is coming vs thinking Kieth should be pretty good.  Their prospect rankings only converged this year after  Kieth finally sniffed top 100 (98, in one place) last year. 

It may not be double, but it's a lot more.  

How would you go about making that argument? Colt Keith hasn't had an OPS under .858 at any level outside of A+ ball for 18 games as a 19 year old in his first year. Brooks Lee's best OPS at any level is .848 at A+ for 25 games as a 21 year old. In Keith's age 21 season he had an OPS of .977 in 59 AA games. In Lee's age 22 season he had an OPS of .841 in 87 AA games. In Keith's age 21 season he then had an OPS of .890 at AAA in 67 games. Lee put up an OPS of .731 in 38 AAA games. Colt Keith has clearly been a better professional baseball player than Brooks Lee.

If teams are ignoring "crapshoot" minor league results in favor of draft position they're doing it wrong. Whole bunch of guys should've been getting a chance over Julien if that's the case. But I'm pretty sure the Twins used those "crapshoot" minor league results to decide to move him up over much higher drafted guys who didn't perform as well. Especially when it comes to the high minors, results matter. And Colt Keith has had much better results than Brooks Lee.

 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How would you go about making that argument? Colt Keith hasn't had an OPS under .858 at any level outside of A+ ball for 18 games as a 19 year old in his first year. Brooks Lee's best OPS at any level is .848 at A+ for 25 games as a 21 year old. In Keith's age 21 season he had an OPS of .977 in 59 AA games. In Lee's age 22 season he had an OPS of .841 in 87 AA games. In Keith's age 21 season he then had an OPS of .890 at AAA in 67 games. Lee put up an OPS of .731 in 38 AAA games. Colt Keith has clearly been a better professional baseball player than Brooks Lee.

If teams are ignoring "crapshoot" minor league results in favor of draft position they're doing it wrong. Whole bunch of guys should've been getting a chance over Julien if that's the case. But I'm pretty sure the Twins used those "crapshoot" minor league results to decide to move him up over much higher drafted guys who didn't perform as well. Especially when it comes to the high minors, results matter. And Colt Keith has had much better results than Brooks Lee.

 

Most minor league "results" are filtered and distilled into something we hardly recognize.  It's only a small part of a deal like this.

Whats your number?  What's everyone's number?  I saw 9/90 which probably doesn't get it done as a total package.  Keith total max is 8/82ish.  The guaranteed money is the only thing that matters so I say if Keith is 28.6m Brooks Lee is 55m with options to 100m. 

If they wait, Alex Bregman becomes the contract comp.  Nice things are expensive.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Most minor league "results" are filtered and distilled into something we hardly recognize.  It's only a small part of a deal like this.

Whats your number?  What's everyone's number?  I saw 9/90 which probably doesn't get it done as a total package.  Keith total max is 8/82ish.  The guaranteed money is the only thing that matters so I say if Keith is 28.6m Brooks Lee is 55m with options to 100m. 

If they wait, Alex Bregman becomes the contract comp.  Nice things are expensive.

If they wait until Brooks Lee plays 3 years in the majors, makes an All Star team, and finishes 5th in the MVP voting he's going to demand 6 years, 100 million? Yeah, that'd make some sense. Or if they wait and he never actually figures it out his contract comp becomes DFA'd at age 27. The bigger concern would be that they wait and the contract comp becomes Austin Riley. Or maybe he just wants to get to the majors asap and thinks signing an extension now helps that so he'll take an Ozzie Albies deal for 7/35. Maybe he thinks that 8/82 mark that Keith and Chourio were at this summer is about right and he takes a deal with 1 more guaranteed year than Keith but the same total max.

I don't have any idea what Brooks Lee would be looking for, but I know that when you're playing your age 22 season compared to someone else's age 21 season at the same levels and the 21 year old outperforms you considerably you have some awfully limited leverage to be asking for double their contract. Or even significantly more. Yes, minor league stats are only part of deals like this, but when it comes to leverage the team is going to point to the closest comp there is and right now that's Colt Keith. So I don't know Lee's number, but the Tigers just set the Twins number.

[Jocko87]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they wait until Brooks Lee plays 3 years in the majors, makes an All Star team, and finishes 5th in the MVP voting he's going to demand 6 years, 100 million? Yeah, that'd make some sense. Or if they wait and he never actually figures it out his contract comp becomes DFA'd at age 27. The bigger concern would be that they wait and the contract comp becomes Austin Riley. Or maybe he just wants to get to the majors asap and thinks signing an extension now helps that so he'll take an Ozzie Albies deal for 7/35. Maybe he thinks that 8/82 mark that Keith and Chourio were at this summer is about right and he takes a deal with 1 more guaranteed year than Keith but the same total max.

I don't have any idea what Brooks Lee would be looking for, but I know that when you're playing your age 22 season compared to someone else's age 21 season at the same levels and the 21 year old outperforms you considerably you have some awfully limited leverage to be asking for double their contract. Or even significantly more. Yes, minor league stats are only part of deals like this, but when it comes to leverage the team is going to point to the closest comp there is and right now that's Colt Keith. So I don't know Lee's number, but the Tigers just set the Twins number.

Churio is 82m guaranteed, Keith 82m max. Albies played parts of two years in the bigs before his deal. Different galaxies.

The Tigers set the bottom of the market.

Is your non-number to be interpreted as the same value as Keith? Or less? Evan White got 24m, Luis Robert got 50m. Where on that range is Lee, inflation adjusted, of course?

As comfortable as you are spending money I would have thought you had a number in mind.

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Churio is 82m guaranteed, Keith 82m max. Albies played parts of two years in the bigs before his deal. Different galaxies.

The Tigers set the bottom of the market.

Is your non-number to be interpreted as the same value as Keith? Or less? Evan White got 24m, Luis Robert got 50m. Where on that range is Lee, inflation adjusted, of course?

As comfortable as you are spending money I would have thought you had a number in mind.

Yes, but Chourio's deal was for 8 years and Keith's base is 6, his max is 9/82 with isn't crazy different than 8/82, and awfully close to the 9/90 you said was too little. I used Albies to play off your Bregman comp of "if they wait." I agree it's a totally different thing.

The Tigers and Brewers set the market. The question is number of years you're guaranteeing. If it's 8 or 9 years you're looking at 80-90 mil. If it's 6 years you're looking at 27-30. So those are my numbers. Because that's what the market has been set at in the last month or so.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, but Chourio's deal was for 8 years and Keith's base is 6, his max is 9/82 with isn't crazy different than 8/82, and awfully close to the 9/90 you said was too little. I used Albies to play off your Bregman comp of "if they wait." I agree it's a totally different thing.

The Tigers and Brewers set the market. The question is number of years you're guaranteeing. If it's 8 or 9 years you're looking at 80-90 mil. If it's 6 years you're looking at 27-30. So those are my numbers. Because that's what the market has been set at in the last month or so.

Gotcha on the Albies/Bregman, that's a different topic for a different thread.

You are mixing guaranteed and max money, Churio has two club options at 25m bringing the max total to 10/132m. Keith max is 9/82m.  Guarantee of 82m vs 28.6m.  The number of years doesn't set the guarantee, Churio is 10m a year while Keith only gets to 5m per in the last two years.  Churio certainly set a market, and it's not one that Keith or Lee are playing in.  

Keith is 6/28.6m, basically the same as Evan White a few years earlier.  No idea what the Mariners were thinking but he was a decent prospect, albeit a first baseman.  That Keith was willing to sign for Evan White money tells me something.  He jumped at the bottom of the market. 

Lee's agent doesn't return your calls for Colt Keith money.