Edouard Julien v. Brooks Lee: Whom Should the Twins Trade?

[jorgenswest]

Farmer fits better on the Twins better than anywhere else because he complements Julien so well. Farmer has always hit left handed pitching well above league average. He is a league average defender.

Would you start Julien over Farmer against a left handed starter in order to give Julien at bats against left handed pitching? It can’t just be an occasional start if they are going to move the needle with his ability to hit lefties. 

Julien isn’t on the short side of the platoon. He has significant value to any team leading off against right handed pitching. He doesn’t ever need to hit left handed pitching well to be really valuable. If he can get his defense to league average then they can probably afford to playing him more against lefties. Until then he really needs to sit against lefties. That’s OK. There aren’t that many left handed starters and they are often out of the game by the 6th inning.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Sorry, Old school guy here and fWAR or effen'War means very little to me or to the eye. Suarez hits for power and is a pretty good glove but everything else is crap... Polanco when healthy does everything fairly well. Hit, hit for power, good glove. So as I would tell Rocco... lose the Metrics and actually look at the game and how it is played. 

Old crotchety dude.. ;) 

They have the exact same career wRC+ of 111.  Their OBP is the same.  Polanco 20 pts higher average but Suarez far more HRs.  Even the old stand by stats suggest they are very equal offensively.  I know defensive metrics leaves some room for doubt, but Suarez is a fair amount above average and Polanco is slightly below average.  

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

It's all dependent on the market and many teams are on the same boat. 

Consider this though: The Twins last year traded Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and two prospects, extended Lopez for below market value, and then he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The market has nothing to do with the Twins deciding to cut payroll. No one forced them to do that.  The Dbacks are increasing payroll from last year and they have the same exact tv uncertainty we do.  Reducing payroll and getting worse was a choice that the Twins made.  

We also traded for Mahle and Lopez and those were disasters.  That's the thing, trades don't always work out.  Relying solely on trades to improve your roster is basically rolling the dice.   

[EGFTShaw]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not personal...

[SNIPPed like for brevity].

Seems to me that Twins have Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin all available to do some work at 2B going into Spring Training, 

I would be ok with that list.

$4M isn't going to break us, but I understand given it's the Twins a penny saved is $4M we may not spend elsewhere.

But back to the point of this article I think we are in agreement; it would be Polanco or Farmer and not Julien or Lee.

I am also OK, we stand pat with everyone, trading no one, unless it has the potential to be Pablo Lopez or higher and see what some of our younger pitchers have.

As things stand now, I said this in another post here in TD, the Twins win the division by 10 games, (assuming the injury bug is no bi-annual), and that's without relying on a fully healthy Buxton.

Mark my words. (been watching too much Outlander)
Bonnie Prince EGFTShaw

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is true. It was also mentioned numerous times on radio and a few times on TV.

Cody, I'm a little surprised you chose to write a Julien or Lee article. Lee plays exclusively on one side of the diamond and Julien plays on the other. It seems a little premature to think Lee adjusts so easily to second base. FWIW, I do think he would be fine there. Seems that all three of Lewis, Julien, and Lee belong. One has no MLB experience and the other two have barely gotten their feet wet. While I may want the Twins to keep all three, the point of any trade is to return value. As such, the angle may be who draws the most serious interest from another team and returns the the guy who the Twins are looking for to strengthen their team. Again, not really suggesting any of these players should be traded but surprised by the omission. 

Through late summer of ‘23 the internal sentiment seemed to be that Lee projects better at 3B than 2B. Obviously, SS is clogged for another 2-5 years. If Lee slots at 3B later this summer or in ‘25 I’m all for Julien staying at 2B & Lewis displacing Wallner in LF. He’s the RH corner OF they “need” and Wallner fits in RF in ‘25.

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I would be ok with that list.

$4M isn't going to break us, but I understand given it's the Twins a penny saved is $4M we may not spend elsewhere.

But back to the point of this article I think we are in agreement; it would be Polanco or Farmer and not Julien or Lee.

I am also OK, we stand pat with everyone, trading no one, unless it has the potential to be Pablo Lopez or higher and see what some of our younger pitchers have.

As things stand now, I said this in another post here in TD, the Twins win the division by 10 games, (assuming the injury bug is no bi-annual), and that's without relying on a fully healthy Buxton.

Mark my words. (been watching too much Outlander)
Bonnie Prince EGFTShaw

The potential of getting a starter with the floor of Pablo Lopez is nearly impossible. I watched the “Top 10 pitcher” special on MLB network earlier this week & Lopez was in Top 10 of all starters for ‘24 on 2 of the 6 lists. One list was computer driven and other 5 from  pundits like Brian Kenny & Ron Darling.

XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base) for 2023 - López had the BEST in baseball! …….#1……..

We should shoot high but thinking Polanco or nearly anyone on our roster is worth a Top 10 pitcher is a BIG reach.

My choice of Farmer over Polanco isn’t $$ based (it’s a minor plus) it’s because he’s a serviceable SS if needed and better than Jorge at 3B & 2B…………and MOST of all, he’s durable & available. Polanco’s talent on the IL doesn’t add anything.

Am assuming we aren’t trading a starter from the current staff…..,,,, Twins cannot move Lewis - CC - Buxton - Lee - Jenkins - Duran either because of ability or contract.

From the remaining pool of players in the organization Twins need to blend at least 3 guys to get a top line pitcher in trade, maybe 4 total - IMO. IF, we can get payroll flexibility by moving Polanco & maybe Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to other club) & then sign a FA pitcher………..this should be pursued!!

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The market has nothing to do with the Twins deciding to cut payroll. No one forced them to do that.  The Dbacks are increasing payroll from last year and they have the same exact tv uncertainty we do.  Reducing payroll and getting worse was a choice that the Twins made.  

We also traded for Mahle and Lopez and those were disasters.  That's the thing, trades don't always work out.  Relying solely on trades to improve your roster is basically rolling the dice.   

The Diamondbacks also started $37M below the twins 2023 payroll and that included $18M in dead money from Bumgardner.  They now project to spend $128M.   You are seeing only what you want to see.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Depends on the return. 
 

If you can get Jesus Luzardo in a package built around one of them, then make the deal 

I don’t disagree - however, would really like to see Lee & Julien in our infield & Lewis in LF for a whole bunch of years.

What if we just figure out a way to shed Vazquez (contribute $3.5M to his annual salary? …..add a mild AA prospect?) & Polanco. That’s $17M saved this year. Trade Kepler at deadline or extend & trade prior to ‘25. That’s a total payroll reduction of $27M in ‘25.

If Martin or Lee can play depth roll at SS they could keep Vazquez & move both Polanco & Farmer in the near term.

Sign J. Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/yr. with a 4th & 5th year player option. Gives him security and also feeds his ego…….he can leave after 3 years if he’s been fantastic. Great opportunity to keep offense upside intact and get a Top Line pitcher with experience and great track record.

Understood - not easily done with Montgomery.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t disagree - however, would really like to see Lee & Julien in our infield & Lewis in LF for a whole bunch of years.

What if we just figure out a way to shed Vazquez (contribute $3.5M to his annual salary? …..add a mild AA prospect?) & Polanco. That’s $17M saved this year. Trade Kepler at deadline or extend & trade prior to ‘25. That’s a total payroll reduction of $27M in ‘25.

If Martin or Lee can play depth roll at SS they could keep Vazquez & move both Polanco & Farmer in the near term.

Sign J. Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/yr. with a 4th & 5th year player option. Gives him security and also feeds his ego…….he can leave after 3 years if he’s been fantastic. Great opportunity to keep offense upside intact and get a Top Line pitcher with experience and great track record.

Understood - not easily done with Montgomery.

Lewis is healthy and comfortable at 3b. I want him to be up and in the majors all year. No reason to move him.

I don’t love Julien’s defense. Frankly I’d throw him out in left or at 1b or even keep him at dh to make room for Lee. 
 

I like Montgomery. I LOVE Luzardo. 

[Paul D]

I had a dilemma in choosing until you mentioned 1B for Julien. If they believe that's where he belongs then there is no redundancy, you need to retain both and look to another prospect to include. I would look to the next infielder prospect and possibly Wallner. The prospect has almost no shot of breaking the lineup. Wallner worries me because his profile is Joey Gallo. I hope I'm wrong.

[Gaastra1966]

Keep Julien, I followed him thru college, he is a gamer, let’s see if front office has the courage to see what he can do in his second year.

[MGM4706]

10 hours ago, mbuehrer68 said:

I would take the proven commodity every time. We know Julien can hit. We don't know what Lee will be at the major league level. Give me those oppo homers at the top of the order. I loved watching Julien hit last year. Let's not trade that away.

The league caught on to Julien the last 6 weeks. His K's skyrocketed. He showed he can't hit cutters in on his hands. He may be another Miranda. Plus his range at 2nd is horrible and with our loss of pitching defense will be key. Trade ASAP while he has value!!

[TNtwins85]

10 hours ago, Karbo said:

IMO everyone pretty much should be available if the price is right. With that being said, I don't see either one of these getting traded this off season. If I was the GM I would look at a package of someone like Martin and AK for a top of the rotation starter. Both can be replaced, and could offer a team some young controllable talent. 

Yes, everyone should be available if you’re the Twins. To get a top of the rotation starter you’re gonna have to add more than a super utility player with upside and a injury prone first baseman.

[TNtwins85]

33 minutes ago, Paul D said:

I had a dilemma in choosing until you mentioned 1B for Julien. If they believe that's where he belongs then there is no redundancy, you need to retain both and look to another prospect to include. I would look to the next infielder prospect and possibly Wallner. The prospect has almost no shot of breaking the lineup. Wallner worries me because his profile is Joey Gallo. I hope I'm wrong.

Agreed on Wallner. When he’s hitting he’s very solid. When he’s a step behind (like the last couple weeks of the season and the playoffs) he resembles Gallo to a tee.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Personally I don't see a scenario where Lewis is traded, and I think he's a tier up from Julien and Lee in terms of how the organization views them. Even for a front office that's willing to trade anyone whether they're a fan favorite, home grown talent, etc., I think there's an attachment there that will make it difficult. He was the first draft pick they ever made after taking over the job, and after a winding road to the MLB which led to him basically carrying the team to their first playoff win in almost 20 years last season, I just can't see it. I'm sure there's a price, but I don't see anyone meeting it.

I think Lewis is too athletic to move him down the defensive spectrum to 1B. I think it's likelier that they'd move him to 2B if they're that intent on Lee playing 3B, but I suspect they won't mess with a good thing. Also of note, Lee's offense will probably profile better at 2B. 

Ok. Thank you.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lewis is healthy and comfortable at 3b. I want him to be up and in the majors all year. No reason to move him.

I don’t love Julien’s defense. Frankly I’d throw him out in left or at 1b or even keep him at dh to make room for Lee. 
 

I like Montgomery. I LOVE Luzardo. 

I’ve often wondered this as well. Frankly I don’t trust his glove at first. I see a lot of short hops into the dugout or camera well with him at first. LF seems like a natural fit. Hell, Sano was put in right! Why can’t Julien play LF and practice at one position to hopefully become average there?

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’ve often wondered this as well. Frankly I don’t trust his glove at first. I see a lot of short hops into the dugout or camera well with him at first. LF seems like a natural fit. Hell, Sano was put in right! Why can’t Julien play LF and practice at one position to hopefully become average there?

Sano stunk in RF.  Hopefully Julien is much much better if put in LF.

[Old fox]

Dammed if you do and dammed if you don’t, when comparing Lee. Vs. Julien.  One thing I have seen written about Julien is he has the “sophomore jinx” year ahead of him. Will it have an effect on him? Maybe and maybe not. At this junction of 2024 we don’t know yet?  
The market place determines the real value of a player. Prospects & players are the real currency of the trade exchange. The twins have 3 outstanding centerfielder prospects maybe we can afford to move 1.  The Twins have 2 very good 2b maybe move 1.  We have several good young corner out - fielders and maybe move  1 or 2.
Twins are fortunate to have 2 very good catchers. 
What teams are good trade partners with the Twins 2024; Marlins, Pirates, Mariners, Rays, Brewers, W.Sox, Reds, Rockies, D-backs, The Twins may have pay above market to bring about 1-2-3 trades but that’s ok to do to reach desired challenge. I don’t like to see the Twins trade my preference player either but if helps the Twins win. I’’m ok with trading my preference player. 

My trade suggestion; Vasquez (c) Polanco (inf),Rodequez (cf), Julien (inf), Schobol (SS). Kirilloff (of), Larnach (of) to the Marlins for Lozard (LSP) , Alcantara (RSP), on the injury list for 2024. This could be a trade like the (Arraez for Lopez trade in (23).

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base)

It doesn't change your point (that Pablo had a really good year), but this isn't what xwOBA is at all.  The "w" stands for "weighted", and means that extra base hits are given more value than just singles or walks.  wOBA is more like OPS, for my purposes at least - an overall measure of a batter's offensive effectiveness, not just one (on-base) aspect of it.

You also may or may not like the "x" part, which is for "expected".  It doesn't tabulate actual on-base results at all, but instead looks at new-fangled measurements like exit velocity and launch angle to calculate the likelihood of a given ball in play falling safely and whether for one base or for extra bases. 

Luis Arraez gets on base a lot.  But xwOBA doesn't rate him as well in 2023 as, say, Corey Seager, who gets on base just as well but hits for more power.

Here is a pretty readable explanation with more detail: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lewis is healthy and comfortable at 3b. I want him to be up and in the majors all year. No reason to move him.

I don’t love Julien’s defense. Frankly I’d throw him out in left or at 1b or even keep him at dh to make room for Lee. 
 

I like Montgomery. I LOVE Luzardo. 

I really like Montgomery & I’ve said more than once here I wanted Luzardo for Arraez…….I think we hit the Pot of Gold with Lopez though - no regrets!!

I don’t think a guy that isn’t intuitive in anything he does on the defensive side can just be moved around. Displacing Kirilloff at 1B & in the line-up doesn’t help. The Twins people and some TD writers have said Lee grades out as a better defender at 3B than Lewis. Lee played CF in the Show and I realize he got hurt out on the grass. If you think Julien has a chance in LF, then you know Lewis can handle it easily.

2024 line-up:

Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis 3B - Kepler RF - CC SS - Wallner LF - Jeffers C - Castro CF

2025 line-up:

Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis LF - Lee 3B - CC SS - Wallner RF - Jeffers C - Martin CF

Reasonable?

[Fatbat]

SI has a great article based on a Falvey interview. He is getting plenty of trade calls but nothing of value yet. He hopes things pick up late January but it sounded like  other FO don’t value any of our guys high enough to get a deal done with any player. Hurry up and wait, winter is getting longer and colder. 

[darin617]

Why a clickbait type topic. This is like should eat broken glass (Julien) or eat a nice burger (Lee).

Julien should be traded if you can get a great return. If you compare Julien to Arraez the main difference is Arraez is a better hitter. Julien has more power and they both are defensive liabilities. Hiding a guy at first isn't the answer.

Brooks Lee is a very young prospect that made it to St Paul fairly quick. The main issue may be finding him playing time if the Twins can't make any trades. 

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Sano stunk in RF.  Hopefully Julien is much much better if put in LF.

Where is the logic of taking someone who's average or below average at one position, 2nd base in Juliens case and think he'll be better in the outfield. Explain please. Or is this just wishful thinking?

 

3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’ve often wondered this as well. Frankly I don’t trust his glove at first. I see a lot of short hops into the dugout or camera well with him at first. LF seems like a natural fit. Hell, Sano was put in right! Why can’t Julien play LF and practice at one position to hopefully become average there?

 

[Woof Bronzer]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Diamondbacks also started $37M below the twins 2023 payroll and that included $18M in dead money from Bumgardner.  They now project to spend $128M.   You are seeing only what you want to see.

Huh?  

https://frontofficesports.com/diamondbacks-plan-record-payroll-despite-unsettled-revenue-outlook/#:~:text=The defending National League champions,other smaller-market MLB franchises.

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Where is the logic of taking someone who's average or below average at one position, 2nd base in Juliens case and think he'll be better in the outfield. Explain please. Or is this just wishful thinking?

 

 

As Julien developed last year at 24 yo, didnt he finish the year with above average defense that made his full year average? He made huge improvement but no one talks about that. 
as for Lee, he isn’t much younger than Julien and he tore through the Minor leagues. At each level, he started what some people say was slow but he progressed so quick that he kept getting promoted so how anyone puts a ceiling on him at 22 yo is beyond me. His AAA time was the smallest sample size and yet Lee blew up to elite levels in the final 16 games when most guys wear down from the longest season in their career.  I understand that if Miami wanted to do straight up Luzardo for Lee, its a no brainer but that isn’t realistic! 3 years from now, Lee could be an allstar and Miami could have Luzardo on the table getting his UCL fixed. 
Todays reality is, Lee is our shiney new tool. If he is the best in our tool box, play him and figure out where. 
We are so lucky to be able to debate things like this instead of, can we find the next Castro hidden talent because we don’t want to watch AAAA guys shuffle in and out all year while we go a putrid 70-92. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Huh?  

https://frontofficesports.com/diamondbacks-plan-record-payroll-despite-unsettled-revenue-outlook/#:~:text=The defending National League champions,other smaller-market MLB franchises.

I can understand that you read something you thought was meaningful.  However, If you check a source that provides all the details you won't find yourself responding with "huh".    

Diamondbacks 2024 Payroll

 

 

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’ve often wondered this as well. Frankly I don’t trust his glove at first. I see a lot of short hops into the dugout or camera well with him at first. LF seems like a natural fit. Hell, Sano was put in right! Why can’t Julien play LF and practice at one position to hopefully become average there?

He already is average at one position (2B) but a lot of people apparently are unwilling to acknowledge that he has improved.  We all hoped he could become average at a position.  The young man worked hard and accomplished what we hoped for.  Now, some people want to ignore what happened and move off the position where he has become competent.     

Statcast - Edouard Julien

[Doctor Gast]

Brooks Lee has a big part of the Twins' imminent future in every aspect of the game, IMO a good All-Star  Candidate who can play all 3 INF positions efficiently and is a switch-hitter. Eddie Julien has a good eye, especially against RHPs is stretched at 2B (which is not a good tell). So I'd choose Julien over Lee to be traded hands down.

But the Twins need to look further down the road because we a have great core of players that have emerged onto the spotlight with others on their heels that can take us to the big dance. For that to happen we need quality depth at CF, SS & catcher.

STL made it to the big dance many times merely on great catching with pitching & defense. Our lowly neighbors KC went to the big dance in 2014 & '15. Losing in '14 but winning it in '15 on the same recipe. My point is that we need to stop ignoring the catcher. I like Jeffers, he's hard-working, he's an average starter overall. Do we want an average CF or SS to start in the WS? NO, -So why are we content with Jeffers? We need a bigger upgrade at catcher. There are a lot of young MLB-ready catchers with high potential to accompany our young core. With good to great arms, athletic, 2-way, some LH or SH ready to be mentored by Vazquez. All these opportunities lining up plus Jeffers is at a high point in his trade value ever is too good to pass up. But if we punt on this one the opportunity will be gone.

So who would I trade for Front line pitching? Jeffers would be my choice.

[TNtwins85]

11 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Where is the logic of taking someone who's average or below average at one position, 2nd base in Juliens case and think he'll be better in the outfield. Explain please. Or is this just wishful thinking?

 

 

Just my opinion but why do you have to trade one or the other. Why would you just not move the guy who hits great to another position where you are weak in my opinion which would be left field. He’s played there before and he can work at that position which has played before. That allows you to put the higher defensive value player in Lee there. Julien is a better hitter than Wallner. Lee is a better hitter than Wallner and a superior defensive player to Julien and Wallner. If you’re willing to trade a player it should be Wallner is what we’ve come to here. That puts him and Polanco on the block which creates a decent package while still keeping the two best hitters in this scenario. That’s my thinking.

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He already is average at one position (2B) but a lot of people apparently are unwilling to acknowledge that he has improved.  We all hoped he could become average at a position.  The young man worked hard and accomplished what we hoped for.  Now, some people want to ignore what happened and move off the position where he has become competent.     

Statcast - Edouard Julien

Understandable. He did improve. But in this scenario why trade one or the other? I think Wallner should be in the conversation. Lee is already better at 2B as it stands. Move Julien to LF. Lee takes 2B. Polanco and Wallner get packaged. I’d rather have Julian’s bat in the lineup playing LF than Wallner. I’d rather have Lee’s bat in the lineup playing 2B over Julien and Polanco. I’d rather have both of them over Wallner and Polanco. Therefore you keep them both. This is the best lineup and defense. The article is about Julien and Lee when really we should be talking about Wallner and Polanco. Maybe it doesn’t get you a top of the rotation starter but I’d rather have Julien and Lee playing everyday than a number 2-3 starter and only one of the two.