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Posted

First-round picks in the NFL and NBA can immediately impact teams, but the same can’t be said for MLB draftees. It takes time and developmental work for a player to reach the big-league level. Here is a look back at the last decade of first-round picks by the Twins.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jeffrey Becker, Dave Nelson–USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have focused on certain player types with their first-round picks, as the Twins have remained relevant in the AL Central. Strong organizations need to hit on their first-round picks and turn them into regulars at the big-league level. Let’s look back at the last decade to see how the team’s first-round picks have fared in their professional careers. 

2023: Walker Jenkins (5th overall)
The Twins benefited greatly by receiving a top-five pick in the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery. Last season’s draft had five tremendous players, and Minnesota was lucky to have Walker Jenkins still on the board with their pick. After signing, Jenkins split time between the FCL Twins and Fort Myers, hitting .362/.417/.571 with 12 extra-base hits in 26 games. He is widely considered the Twins’ top-ranked prospect, and there is a chance for him to be ranked as baseball’s number-one prospect at this time next year.

2022: Brooks Lee (8th overall)
Minnesota’s 2021 season was disappointing, but a poor season meant the team received a high pick. Lee was considered one of the top collegiate bats in his draft class, and the Twins have seen those skills during the early stages of his professional career. Lee finished last season in St. Paul and hit .275/.347/.461, with 39 doubles, three triples, and 16 home runs in 125 games. He continues to see time at shortstop, but his long-term home might be at another infield position. He is considered one of baseball’s top 50 prospects and is expected to debut in 2024.

2021: Chase Petty (26th overall)
The Twins traded Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray leading into the 2022 season. It turned out to be an intelligent move by Minnesota’s front office, because they got two All-Star-caliber seasons from Gray and a draft pick at the end of the first round, after he declined the team’s qualifying offer. Petty pitched at High A and Double A last season in the Reds organization. In 18 games (68 innings), he posted a 1.72 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 66-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. At the beginning of 2023, he missed time with an elbow injury that wasn’t considered serious. Petty was a high price to pay, but high-school pitchers have a challenging road to the big leagues. 

2020: Aaron Sabato (27th overall)
The 2020 MLB Draft will be remembered for many different reasons, since the pandemic limited the team’s ability to scout players. Minnesota took Sabato after he posted a 1.158 OPS in 83 collegiate games. Some evaluators questioned the pick, because Sabato was considered a first baseman or designated hitter, meaning he would need to hit at a very high level to make a real impact in the big leagues. In 2023, he played 77 games at Double A and posted a .759 OPS, with 32 extra-base hits and 103 strikeouts. Following the season, Minnesota sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit seven homers and three doubles in 18 games. Sabato doesn’t seem to fit into the team’s long-term plans at this point, but he has the potential to surprise in 2024. 

2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall)
Cavaco gained a lot of steam in the weeks leading into the draft, so Minnesota selected him with the 13th pick in hopes that he could develop into a five-tool talent. His professional career has been a disappointment to this point, with a .610 OPS across four seasons. Last year, he dealt with some injuries and was limited to 63 games. At High A (59 games), he hit .193/.266/.287, with four doubles, five home runs, and an 88-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Originally drafted as a shortstop, he has continued to move down the defensive spectrum, sliding to third base before playing last season at first base. 

2018: Trevor Larnach (20th overall)
Twins fans have seen a lot of Larnach over the last three seasons, but it’s unclear what his long-term role with the big-league club can be. Since his rookie season, his OPS has risen by over 50 points, but his 98 OPS+ last season was still below league average. At Triple A, Larnach fared much better, hitting .271/.384/.504 with 30 extra-base hits in 72 games. However, his biggest flaw is hitting breaking pitches, and the level of competition is easier at Triple A. The 2024 season will be the make-or-break moment for Larnach to establish himself at the big-league level. 

2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall)
Minnesota’s first draft under Falvey and Levine came with high expectations and the first overall pick. There were multiple options for the top spot, but the Twins decided on Lewis, and he immediately became one of baseball’s top prospects. Torn ACLs in back-to-back seasons slowed down his progress, but he was a spark plug for the 2023 Twins, on the way to a division title. In 58 games, he posted a 150 OPS+, with seven doubles and 15 home runs. His home run heroics carried over into the postseason, where he helped Minnesota win its first playoff series in two decades. Lewis is on track to be the face of the franchise for the next decade. 

2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall)
Kirilloff was among the best high-school hitting prospects in his draft class, and he quickly moved into national top-100 lists. Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him in their top 15 prospects leading into the 2019 campaign. Injuries have slowed down his professional career, including Tommy John surgery, multiple wrist surgeries, and a shoulder procedure. He has flashed brief signs of being the hitter he was in the minors (including a 117 OPS+ last season), but he has yet to play more than 88 games in one big-league season. Minnesota hopes Kirilloff can begin to meet his expectations with a healthy season next year. 

2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall)
Jay was used as a relief pitcher in college, but the Twins felt like he had the tools to transition to a starting pitching role. He pitched five seasons in the Twins organization and topped out at Double A. Since leaving the Twins, he has pitched for two other organizations (Reds and Mets) and in the independent leagues. Last season, he started the year pitching for Joliet in the Frontier League and posted a 4.26 ERA (with a 1.18 WHIP) in 57 innings. The Mets organization added him at the end of August, and he made six relief appearances (6 IP) while allowing four earned runs. His time in the Twins organization had some good moments, but it was a failed experiment. 

2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall)
Gordon comes from a family of baseball players, and the Twins felt confident in taking him with a top-five pick back in 2014. He worked his way slowly through the farm system, before bursting onto the scene in 2022 with a 111 OPS+ in 136 games. Twins fans expected big things from him last season, but he struggled out of the gate (35 OPS+) before fracturing his right shin when he fouled a pitch off his leg. Minnesota offered him arbitration, and he will be in the outfield mix for 2024.

Which players will have the most significant impact on the 2024 roster? Which player was the biggest disappointment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.


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Posted

Great post! It really shows what bad decisions can lead to.  Its quite obvious that the first round picks (decision) is getting fine tuned as this FO has gained experience. A few more good choices over the next couple years, and we will continue to supply young studs for the next decade to MLB and stay competitive against the big spenders.
I am a bit surprised that the comp picks before round 2 weren’t included as they essentially are a late first round pick…. But thats just nitpicking perhaps. 
Its also perhaps too early to congratulate the FO on the ‘22 &’23 picks but wowza if they are the next 2 building blocks of a championship team! 

Posted

Hoping Kirilloff can hit .270 with a OPS around .820, if so, he’s a great pick and a middle of the order guy with a potential OBP of .350. I really like him v. RH pitching as a stabilizing threat in the line-up. Need’s some more doubles with his gap power.

Lee at 3B seems pretty logical for some time in August. Am hoping there is flexibility with Lewis! I keep thinking LF & hear it from nowhere else……..seems to make sense for ‘25! Am assuming Polanco is gone & they platoon Julien/Farmer as a solid duo at 2B through ‘24.

Jenkins is an exciting guy when contrasting the buzz with guys from Orioles & other organizations when touting real promise. He seems real close to can’t miss success assuming health. A call-up by the deadline in ‘25 would be pretty fast track but he seems to be well on his way.

Posted

Drafting is an inexact science, but drafting in the top half of the first round should dramatically increase your keeper rate. Drafting a player in the 1st round who will not make it to MLB is a huge blunder. With the emphasis on payroll, your only success can only come from the draft or adept trades. Now that the Twins are in playoff contention and down the draft list,  scouting and development become significantly more important.

Posted

If I remember correctly, Keoni Cavaco was that shiny object darting up the draft board just before draft day .. I wonder how the few guys predicted to be picked at that spot fared? 

Posted
22 minutes ago, saviking said:

If I remember correctly, Keoni Cavaco was that shiny object darting up the draft board just before draft day .. I wonder how the few guys predicted to be picked at that spot fared? 

Corbin Carrol is that guy. Sadly not on the Twins roster.

Posted
18 minutes ago, saviking said:

If I remember correctly, Keoni Cavaco was that shiny object darting up the draft board just before draft day .. I wonder how the few guys predicted to be picked at that spot fared? 

I remember it well.  I was watching on-line and as the Twins pick approached, I was hoping Bryson Stot or Corbin Carroll would be available.  They were at the top of the best available according to most baseball reporters.  I hated the Cavaco pick and grew to hate it more as Carroll rose to a top 3 prospect.  This was their greatest 1st round pick blunder.  You don't take a shot at someone like Cavaco with Carroll and Stot  available.

Posted

Who has been the most disappointing  is an easy question to answer ....

Cavaco and Sabato  ...  sounds like Jay was also a disappointment  for the Twins but still living the dream with the Mets minor leagues ...

Who will shine in 2024 , Lewis  , kiriloff if healthy  , and at some point in time Lee  ...

Larnach I hope he got some instructions this off season  on how to hit the off speed pitches , this is definitely his last season as a twin unless there is a break out .... 

Gordon needs a good spring , but could be traded .... 

Posted

I think the Cavaco pick is the most disappointing one; it really sets you back when you blow a top 10 pick and Cavaco was pretty high risk and has basically shown nothing his whole professional career. He's 22 and never played a game above A ball, and hasn't developed into a player that has any kind of future. Without the top 10 pick mantle, I'm not sure he'd still be with the organization.

Sabato looks like a bust, but I have a little mercy for the messed up draft year of 2020, and he's a late round pick which has a lot more variance. Sabato has also at least shown the occasional flash of the kind of hitting ability and power potential the Twins drafted him for, even if it seems unlikely he'll put it together. 

The Tyler Jay pick...that was the kind of pick that showed it was time for a real front office overhaul, because the idea of taking a college reliever with a top 10 pick with the idea of making him a starter was a little whackadoodle from the jump and there were certainly plenty of other options with that pick. With that craziness in the mix, it's harder to call Jay as disappointing as Cavaco, because what the heck were we supposed to expect when the front office swerves so hard with the development of the player?

Gordon hasn't developed the way you'd hop at that top 10 pick would go, but he has gotten to MLB and put up a decent season. His development got seriously messed up by injuries/medical issues that took a long time to iron out. I have a lot more sympathy for that, because it's certainly not like Gordon wanted to have medical problems that made it problematic for him to keep weight on.

Posted
25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the Cavaco pick is the most disappointing one; it really sets you back when you blow a top 10 pick and Cavaco was pretty high risk and has basically shown nothing his whole professional career. He's 22 and never played a game above A ball, and hasn't developed into a player that has any kind of future. Without the top 10 pick mantle, I'm not sure he'd still be with the organization.

Sabato looks like a bust, but I have a little mercy for the messed up draft year of 2020, and he's a late round pick which has a lot more variance. Sabato has also at least shown the occasional flash of the kind of hitting ability and power potential the Twins drafted him for, even if it seems unlikely he'll put it together. 

The Tyler Jay pick...that was the kind of pick that showed it was time for a real front office overhaul, because the idea of taking a college reliever with a top 10 pick with the idea of making him a starter was a little whackadoodle from the jump and there were certainly plenty of other options with that pick. With that craziness in the mix, it's harder to call Jay as disappointing as Cavaco, because what the heck were we supposed to expect when the front office swerves so hard with the development of the player?

Gordon hasn't developed the way you'd hop at that top 10 pick would go, but he has gotten to MLB and put up a decent season. His development got seriously messed up by injuries/medical issues that took a long time to iron out. I have a lot more sympathy for that, because it's certainly not like Gordon wanted to have medical problems that made it problematic for him to keep weight on.

Just a nitpick but Cavaco was not a top 10 pick.  He was 13th but your point remains valid given there were a couple great options staring at them as they chose Cavaco.

Posted

I'm honestly surprised how many have turned into serviceable MLB players. I'm curious how that compares to other teams. Though the first half of R1 is far different than the 27th overall pick. People place too much stock in rounds.

Posted

Clearly a strategy of drafting hitting. Which is okay and justified based on batters being more projectable than pitching and also the injury risk. But then to be successful as a team pitchers selected in later rounds need to developed into front line starters or teams have to be able/willing to trade hitting for pitching. Trading pitching for pitching means eventually running out of future pitching. 
 

The Jay pick had a strategy in that the Twins, needing pitching, drafted the top college relief pitcher and attempted to convert him to a starter. This was doomed when Jay suffered a mostly career ending shoulder injury. 

Posted

Just scanning baseball reference, I’m a bit surprised at the low hit rate on first rounders, even top 10. At best only 50% of the top 10 and 30% of the entire first round turn into solid major league players or better. (Most of the stars are drafted early in the first round however.)

 

The Twins have had 7 top 10 picks in the last 12 years (including Buxton and Kohl Stewart) and had 4 in a row from 2012-2015. Terry Ryan only went 1 for 4, The early returns on Falvey/Levine look much better on the last three top 10s, but I know it’s still early.

Posted

I wonder how much weight is being placed on a prospect's mental make-up and attitude? I believe there is a correlation in attitude and being successful in one's goals. However, if I recall my mental make-up, as an 18 to 22 year old ,  it was nothing to be proud of. Sure, I graduated from college during those 4 years, but I did just enough to get by. I finally grew up in the US Army, 1967 - 1969.  It was there I learned to be more than "just good enough".  

Posted

This list of picks spans the reign of two front offices, so I  feel the last of the names on the list are worth discussing in a separate context.  Terry Ryan had this reputation as a pretty conservative guy.  And yet, he would surprise observers with flat-out gambles, apparently in the spirit of "if you do what everyone else does, but with fewer resources, you can't win."  Putting Miguel Sano in RF was a gamble that few others would make, for example.  Tyler Jay was another such example.  i'm not sure if a couple of players from Asia were gambles in the same spirit, or simply failures of scouting and player evaluation; the trade of Aaron Hicks for a catcher who couldn't perform was another.  I seem to remember there were a few more of this nature, but can't pull them from the memory banks at the moment.  Anyway, Tyler Jay prompts a stroll down memory lane, doesn't he.

Posted
18 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wonder how much weight is being placed on a prospect's mental make-up and attitude? I believe there is a correlation in attitude and being successful in one's goals. However, if I recall my mental make-up, as an 18 to 22 year old ,  it was nothing to be proud of. Sure, I graduated from college during those 4 years, but I did just enough to get by. I finally grew up in the US Army, 1967 - 1969.  It was there I learned to be more than "just good enough".  

I think scouts look at a lot of factors, such as parents and other upbringing, to help project how a 17 year old is going to turn out.  Nick Gordon coming from a baseball family seemed to have played a role in the Twins selecting him, if I'm remembering correctly.  A kid's current coach will often drop hints about leadership or detestability with teammates.  And so forth.  You can't know, but you can make educated guesses what he'll be like at age 25.

Posted

That string of 2018-2020 is a pretty big hole on the Twins roster right now, although perhaps Larnach can make some contributions yet. On the other hand the 2016-17 draft could provide the teams 3rd and 4th place hitters and the 2022-2023 drafts could add future punch to the lineup. Unknown what the future holds for that 2021 pick, although the trade results have been good so far. Keeping fingers crossed on the 2024 pick and the return to health and continued development of the pitching side of recent drafts.

Posted

Definitely a mixed bag, but that's what I'd expect. 

I wasn't a fan of the Gordon pick. There were some guys I liked more, and I wasn't convinced by his straight 50's on the scout scale. That didn't scream top 5 pick to me. He's had some setbacks, but hasn't been a bad ballplayer. Jury is still out. I think 2024 might just make or break his career.

I never hated the Tyler Jay pick. IIRC 2015 was considered a weak draft and low on arms. Even if the idea of converting Jay to a rotation arm didn't work out, he should have been a really good back end reliever for the pen. The fact that didn't amount to anything is still a disappointment as well as a surprise to me.

I give the Twins a pass on 2020 and Sabato. They had virtually nothing to work with for scouting except the year before plus. Regardless if he was a 1B or not, a powerful 30HR guy who could hit decently with a good OB% late in the first round? Sign me up.

The selection of Cavaco made zero sense when it was made and has proven to be a huge error.

The others? I can't say any of them were bad choices. Even Larnach, who I think still has potential to help someone. Solid in the field with a good arm, if he only hit against RHP and could hit .225-.230 he might accidentally hit 20 HR and 30 Dbls. As long as Kirilloff's wrist remains healthy going foward, I think he's going to be at least good, if not great. Again, a lot of very good picks on this list.

Posted
9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Great post! It really shows what bad decisions can lead to.  Its quite obvious that the first round picks (decision) is getting fine tuned as this FO has gained experience. A few more good choices over the next couple years, and we will continue to supply young studs for the next decade to MLB and stay competitive against the big spenders.
I am a bit surprised that the comp picks before round 2 weren’t included as they essentially are a late first round pick…. But thats just nitpicking perhaps. 
Its also perhaps too early to congratulate the FO on the ‘22 &’23 picks but wowza if they are the next 2 building blocks of a championship team! 

2017: Brent Rooker (35)
2019: Matt Wallner (39)
2021: Noah Miller (36)
2023: Charlie Soto (34)

Posted

Chase Petty is a unique case. In a sense, one can say that with the 26th pick in the 2021 draft, the Twins drafted two years of Sonny Gray and the opportunity to have a bonus pick two years later and about 10-15 spots lower. Given Gray’s and team’s success those two years, that pick is a win in my book, even if Chase Petty turns into the Richard Petty of pitchers. (And like King Richard, if Chase ever has the need to run the bases, it will be with the instructions, “go fast, turn left.” But I digress.)

And with Jenkins being a high schooler in 2023, that pick is too early to judge. Beyond that, it’s very feasible that five of the eight remaining No. 1 picks will play for the Twins in 2024 (Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff and Gordon).

If @jeffp’s* guess of 30 percent of first rounders being contributors at some point is accurate, five of eight seems like a pretty good success rate. Throw in Wallner with a comp pick, and that’s six who will play. Many days, there will be three or four of them in the lineup together.

I can’t imagine there isn’t another team that doesn’t have a Jay/Cavaco/Sabato-type trio in their history over the past decade. All in all, I think they’ve drafted quite well.

 

*Welcome to Twins Daily, by the way. 

Posted

I think because of the improving quality of major college baseball conferences that scouting directors are placing their level of competition comparable to AA baseball.  That changes a lot of drafting strategy because you are looking at high school players needing 4-5 years in the minors normally, all the way to major collegiate juniors/seniors needing 1-2 years. FO personnel who are feeling the heat will be more prone to draft players needing 1-2 years to reach MLB, while successful programs can choose the best players and allow them time to work through the minors.

Posted
59 minutes ago, Paul D said:

I think because of the improving quality of major college baseball conferences that scouting directors are placing their level of competition comparable to AA baseball. 

So a player who has clearly mastered the game at the college level gets placed at AAA the day after he signs?  I don't recall that happening.

Posted
2 hours ago, Paul D said:

I think because of the improving quality of major college baseball conferences that scouting directors are placing their level of competition comparable to AA baseball. 

Maybe A ball, but not close to AA.

A player like Brooks Lee was judged to be the singular best hitting college player two years ago but started in the rookie league and then on to A and AA. Dylan Crews started in R league and then went to A and AA this past year. These are the very best college players. The Twins drafted a ton of really good college pitchers in 2022 and they spent last season in A ball. Teams like LSU could not compete in an A+ league.

Baseball is a difficult profession and it takes time to learn and practice the skills. Projecting who will be good is really difficult.  

The pick of Cavaco was strange because he was picked as a shortstop because of his physical talent but had problems in high school at third base and did not blow many people away in his SoCal play. The Twins were enamored with his physique and liked his personality. 

Posted
1 hour ago, ashbury said:

So a player who has clearly mastered the game at the college level gets placed at AAA the day after he signs?  I don't recall that happening.

Sorry if I made it seem that way.  I was trying to say that many of the top choices in the draft who came out of good conferences may end up playing AA ball their first year.  Of the top 14 picks for 2023 #1 Paul Skenes (LSU) pitched in AA, also #2 pick Dylan Crews (LSU) played in AA, #3 Max Clark was a HS pick, #4 pick Wyatt Langford (Florida) made it to AAA, #5 Walker Jenkins was a HS pick, #6 pick Jacob Wilson played JC, #7 Rhett Lowder came out of Wake Forest as a pitcher and did not play any minor league games, #8 was Blake Mitchell a HS draftee, #9 was Chase Dollander out of Tennesee was a pitcher who didn't play in the minors, #10 Noble Meyer was a HS pitcher, #11 was Nolan Schanuel from Florida Atlantic who actually played Rookie, A, AA and finally 29 games with the Angels, #12 was Tommy Troy (Stanford) played Rookie and A+, #13 Matt Shaw (Maryland) made it to AA and #14 Kyle Teel from Virginia made it to AA.  In just about all the cases of players who reached AA they only played a handful of games at both Rookie and A or A+.

Of course this is the cream of the draft, but you can anticipate that if your team has a pick in the top half of the draft and are college juniors or seniors, that they may end the season in AA or higher.  Also teams are being cautious with college pitchers and some teams will not assign them to a minor league team if they feel they have already pitched a sufficient number of innings while in college.

Sorry that I didn't make my comment clear.

Posted
7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe A ball, but not close to AA.

A player like Brooks Lee was judged to be the singular best hitting college player two years ago but started in the rookie league and then on to A and AA. Dylan Crews started in R league and then went to A and AA this past year. These are the very best college players. The Twins drafted a ton of really good college pitchers in 2022 and they spent last season in A ball. Teams like LSU could not compete in an A+ league.

Baseball is a difficult profession and it takes time to learn and practice the skills. Projecting who will be good is really difficult.  

The pick of Cavaco was strange because he was picked as a shortstop because of his physical talent but had problems in high school at third base and did not blow many people away in his SoCal play. The Twins were enamored with his physique and liked his personality. 

Hi, just clarified my comment to an earlier post. I was commenting on the best players coming out of college programs and where they may end up after spending a few weeks in lower classifications.  Interestingly pick #11 Nolan Schanuel did make it to MLB with the Angles for over 100 AB's. Sorry that I didn't make myself clearer.

Posted
12 hours ago, Shaitan said:

I'm honestly surprised how many have turned into serviceable MLB players. I'm curious how that compares to other teams. Though the first half of R1 is far different than the 27th overall pick. People place too much stock in rounds.

 

Posted
20 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Corbin Carrol is that guy. Sadly not on the Twins roster.

And too bad we didn't go pitching the following year and get Bobby Miller. How different this team would look with Miller and Carrol holding down 2 spots.  Don't know how the Dodgers do it, but they sure seem to hit on a high % of late first round picks

Posted

It's impossible to get every draft pick right. While there are a few absolute busts there, we have also got some top talent there. Royce Lewis could be an MVP candidate in 2024 if he stays healthy (which I can't see why not), Got to credit the Twins scouting setup for advising picking him over Greene and Gore. Twins must have been tempted to take one of those two - Lewis was not the clear number 1 pick at the time. 

Jenkins - one of the easiest picks ever. Being number 5 meant the Twins simply selected whoever was left out of Langford, Clark and Jenkins (Skenes and Crews were never making it to 5). The way Jenkins is going, he could turn out to be the best of the 3, if not all 4 of those hitters. Would have been a number 1 pick in most drafts.

Brooks Lee - a strong spring could see him start the year with the Twins. Big reason why I would rather we trade Polanco over Kepler. If he's not quite ready Julien or Farmer (assuming he's not traded either) could fill in while he fine tunes his bat at AAA.

Larnach and AK - jury still out due to injuries. AK certainly has the talent but he needs to stay on the field! Larnach has a lower ceiling and more of a fourth outfielder type player. 

Posted

Looking back at the 2014 MLB draft, the Nick Gordon pick was a big miss at #5.  Aaron Nola drafted at #7, Michael Conforto drafted at #10, and Trea Turner drafted at #13...  Oof.

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